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    • The Anti-Java

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      Post count: 7089

      Five pending free agents bound to get overpaid this offseason
      By Michael Renner • Jan 30, 2019
      ProFootballFocus

      Death, taxes and NFL teams losing their minds in free agency. It’s a tale as old as time. Every offseason we see teams misevaluate talent from other teams and hand over the bag in free agency only to cut bait a few years down the line. We’re not saying the guys below are bad players by any means, but the public perception of them hasn’t always matched the grades.

      Anthony Barr
      The perfect recipe for an inflated contract in free agency is any high draft pick who has flashed elite play at some point in their career. Ever coach thinks they are the ones who will get that peak performance out of them even though Barr had no defensive slouch at the helm in Mike Zimmer. After Barr’s All-Pro season in 2015, where he earned a 90.0 coverage grade, he’s earned coverage grades of 43.6, 59.6 and 59.9. There is some hope for Barr to reinvent himself as a pass-rusher – his primary position at UCLA – but that’s a big risk when handing out a big contract.

      Jadeveon Clowney
      The aura surrounding Clowney has always been greater than his production on the field. In five seasons in the NFL, the Texans defender has never once earned a pass-rushing grade above 80.0. His 78.8 pass-rushing grade this past season was a career high. The 25-year old has certainly been trending in the right direction, but how much are you willing to pay a premium for his perceived upside down the road? 13 different edge defenders had higher pass-rushing grades a season ago, including five players also set to be free agents. He’s a movable chess piece that is dominant against the run, but he’s not close to Von Miller/Khalil Mack/J.J. Watt.

      Trent Brown
      There’s no denying Brown exceeded many’s expectations this past season in New England, but there are a lot of reasons why I’d worry about valuing him as a top tackle this offseason. The first is that he was average by pretty much all of our metrics. He earned a 66.9 overall grade and ranked 30th out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass-blocking efficiency. The latter of which is undoubtedly helped by Tom Brady having the fifth-fastest average time to throw in the NFL. If Brown leaves New England and offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, I’m not sure you’ll see the same quality results.

      Le’Veon Bell
      This has nothing to do with Bell’s talent, but rather how much value he can bring to the table. Bell’s best seasons also happened to coincide with the Steelers having top-ranked offensive lines by us here at PFF, which isn’t a coincidence. All our data points to run blocking being far more important to success on the ground than the running back, so if you’re a team looking to improve your ground game, paying Bell big money isn’t where you should start.

      Bradley Roby
      Roby has teased playmaking ability throughout his career as a nickel corner, but when he was finally given the reigns to the starting job in Denver this past season, he fell flat. He allowed career highs in passer rating allowed (117.3) and catch rate (65.9 percent) while breaking up six fewer passes (9) than he did a season ago (15). He also had three separate outings where he allowed at least 100 yards. While the high-level traits are there, that’s concerning production for a big contract.

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    • Anonymous

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      Post count: 2134

      Why would the Texans let Clowney walk? He’s probably getting franchised or transition tagged I would think.

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    • The Anti-Java

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      Post count: 7089

      Why would the Texans let Clowney walk? He’s probably getting franchised or transition tagged I would think.

      They are still paying JJ for 3-4 years mega bucks.
      And Watson will command big bucks in a couple years.
      So they may not want to resign Clowney long term. But you may be right, a tag would work. If they think he is worth it.

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    • bent09

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      Post count: 29

      They will tag him.  People in Houston are not overly impressed.

      Has not lived up to the hype and run stopping ability is not sexy.

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    • JamesButabi

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      Post count: 260

      Not interested in any of them.

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    • Bootz2004

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      Post count: 2242

      Nearly every free agent gets overpaid for their value. Even Jason Licht’s “value signings” are overpaid.

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    • Defense5599

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      Post count: 1843

      Nearly every free agent gets overpaid for their value. Even Jason Licht’s “value signings” are overpaid.

      Because that’s how free agency is.   You are giving out A-List money to B-List players.   The truly elite players like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Von Miller, or Jalen Ramsey will never make it to free agency.

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    • tampaspicer

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      Post count: 3480

      They can all get their big money on another team. Don’t need to overpay for anyone on the Bucs.

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    • Mic

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      Post count: 1809

      Barr is my favorite guy if he’s in a 3-4 where he can rush the passer he had elite level bend when I was scouting him coming out

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    • NotDeadYet

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      Post count: 1255

      The Arians effect in FA will be interesting.I suspect it will be a factor…

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    • BucBalla85

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      Post count: 2053

      The Arians effect in FA will be interesting.I suspect it will be a factor…

      Curious about that as I have heard some people in the league or affiliated with the league say this.

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    • GottaJaboo

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      Post count: 5942

      Yeah, good coaches tend to get players around the league pumped.

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    • NotDeadYet

      Participant
      Post count: 1255

      And Licht may defer to Arians’ judgement more frequently than he did for past coaches. And I’d say Arians judgement is probably better…

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    • Jr.3

      Participant
      Post count: 424

      Mike lupati could be a good 1 year option at RG. Morris Claiborne played under Bowles this past season, he might be a good option at CB. Not a great player but a decent option at corner. Deone Bucannon also has ties with BA and Bowles. There were also rumors Jason tried to trade for Landon Collins this past year so he could be another free agent we look at.

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    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 3212

      Barr is meh.

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    • Pepsi

      Participant
      Post count: 2047

      I want Clowney, he’ll be in his prime for the next 5 years(if healthy) – likely the entire Arians era. Gives us major flexibility with our first round pick. Could put a line together that looks like Clowney, Vea, Oliver, JPP with Nassib in rotation. Or wouldnt be as much of a killer if were passing on one of these good first round Dline guys.

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    • Bootz2004

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      Post count: 2242

      Nearly every free agent gets overpaid for their value. Even Jason Licht’s “value signings” are overpaid.

      Because that’s how free agency is. You are giving out A-List money to B-List players. The truly elite players like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Von Miller, or Jalen Ramsey will never make it to free agency.

      100% correct. And since the salary cap started rising C-list players are getting A-list money.

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    • Bootz2004

      Blocked
      Post count: 2242

      And Licht may defer to Arians’ judgement more frequently than he did for past coaches. And I’d say Arians judgement is probably better…

      The team went 3-13 the year after Arians left. 15-16-1 his final 2 years. Not sure where your assessment that Arians judgement is one that should be deferred to is coming from. The Cardinals roster isn’t exactly mouth watering.

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