Currently, there are 0 users and 1 guest visiting this topic.
Viewing 58 reply threads

  • Author

    Posts

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      Is Licht responsible for the 2020 Buccaneers?

      51 out of the 53 players who will be on the openning day roster will have been brought in under the Licht regime (David and Gholston are the holdovers). Thats 96% of the team. This is Licht’s team.

      There have been thousands of posts about Licht’s responsibility for the past woes of this team, and there will be thousands more. Lets be clear… I’m NOT talking about the past, NOT trying to erase or rewrite or reargue the past or absolve Licht of responsibility for the past. Not asking if he should be signed to a long term deal, fired today, or fired three years ago. NOT asking what should happen to him if we win or what should happen to him if we lose.

      I’m simply trying to establish whether Licht is responsible for this year’s Bucs team, the team which so far has a record of 0-0. Lets figure that out before we get started. So please answer this poll.

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      Why the downvotes? Its just a poll.

    • BucBalla85

      Participant
      Post count: 2387

      I think the narrative with the media will be if they win hes responsible and if they lose hes responsible. I think that is fair for a guy in his position. However, we all know hes just there because BA and Brady need someone there to call themselves the gm. He will live and die with the success or non success of the team..

    • pewterblood

      Participant
      Post count: 579

      The season hasn’t even started but the Bucs have been a laughingstock his whole time here. He has to win a Super Bowl with Brady to erase the memories of embarrassment. He has Brady and a team with tons of hype. If he doesn’t win a SB it’s another failure.

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 445

      Licht is a failure. Brady is not going to help his legacy at 43. Silly thought.

    • TBayXXXVII

      Participant
      Post count: 2082

      The GM is always responsible for what his role is. The good and the bad.

    • BucBalla85

      Participant
      Post count: 2387

      The season hasn’t even started but the Bucs have been a laughingstock his whole time here. He has to win a Super Bowl with Brady to erase the memories of embarrassment. He has Brady and a team with tons of hype. If he doesn’t win a SB it’s another failure.

      I dont know if I go that far. I think playoffs would be a start. I know we kind of went all in but this team has little to no experience in the playoffs. Its going to be hard to go all the way with that being the case. However with Brady at helm, the expectations are always high so we should consider that as well..

    • J.A.S.H.E.R.

      Participant
      Post count: 3196

      Ever since Arians and Bowles got here Licht has been in the backseat and he should be thankful for that. /thread

    • FsstNfurios

      Participant
      Post count: 169

      Why the downvotes? Its just a poll.

      Why did you 👍 your own post? It’s just a poll.

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

    • FsstNfurios

      Participant
      Post count: 169

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

      I never see why people care that much about like/dislike ratio. I just stand on my square without worry if people agree or not.

    • FireLicht2020

      Participant
      Post count: 7582

      The GM is always responsible for what his role is. The good and the bad.

      Just like the president 🙃

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      Perhaps some people love these sorts of surveys, but I really don’t care for them in either a “that’s interesting social data about Buccaneers fans” sort of way or a “this captures a robust holistic analysis of GM Licht’s contributions to 2020” sort of way.

      The first one doesn’t interest me at all. The second one interests me very much. However, the implication I feel may be attempted to be smuggled in is “if 2020 is successful and you feel Licht is responsible for 2020, then Licht’s 7 year tenure becomes redeemed.”

      Here are grades of success in 2020 and what they say about anything.

      1 – If Brady stays healthy we will win 10 games and make the playoffs. What this says is “the modern NFL is a QB-driven league and the Replacement Cost Value between elite/borderline elite QB play and slightly below median expectation QB play is a vast chasm (3-4 games…which is enormous).

      2 – If Brady stays health, our top two Edge rushers, our boundary CBs, and top 6 OL stay relatively healthy, we will win a playoff game and be a threat for the NFC title.

      3 – Brady is injured at some point and we win 6-8 games (assuming its sometime before the mid-way point).

      4 – Brady stays healthy, but Barrett and Davis or Dean miss a lot of time. If that happens, we will struggle terribly on defense and struggle for a wildcard.

      5 – We suffer a string of iOL injuries and we struggle for a wildcard. There is no Dante Scarnecchia here to turn chicken shit into chicken salad. If Marpet goes down…we’re in trouble…if two guys go down for extended snaps, we’re in trouble (which increases the risk of injury to Brady…which is how he got injured the only time in his career).

      All of these things tell me what I already know:

      * We (Licht especially) are unbelievably lucky that Brady became available and signed on for this year after we (Licht) busted on our #1 QB pick (which virtually no GM ever survives).

      * We have missed multiple times on Edge in the draft (either selecting the wrong player or eschewing a prospect for another positional prospect) + FA (including the cap situation that made it so we couldn’t resign Nassib or sign depth and including not drafting any of the myriad of available promising Edge prospects this year and last year). This has created an unbelievably paper thin situation at Edge. We don’t remotely have a rotation…but forget about rotation…if we suffer an injury there (particularly to Barrett), we are in a world of hurt on defense.

      * Despite throwing an unbelievable amount of assets at the Defensive Backfield, we are paper thin at boundary CB. If Davis or Dean go down, we are in a world of hurt. Like Edge, forget actual successful snaps/proven commodity in the NFL, the boundary snaps at Press Man coverage in our defensive backfield are just non-existent.

      As to the 2nd two *, no, anyone’s answer of “no one has depth in the NFL” is fundamentally wrong. If you look at the roster construction of most teams that are perennially successful over a period of years on defense, you see a continual infusion of talent (both draft and FA) into the ranks and those assets invested actually yield depth (Baltimore, Eagles, SF, New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Seattle, GB, Minnesota, and NO the last 3-4 years). We haven’t done that. Our roster construction/future planning/retention has been all over the place. The only thing we’ve done consistently is draft a ton of Safeties/hybrid DBs and a scant few of those have “worked” (worked meaning played meaningful successful snaps and/or been reliable depth:

      VH3/MJ Stewart/Justin Evans – Bad picks from the word go and those bad picks have set us back in multiple ways.

      SMB/Whitehead/Edwards – We’ll see.

      Winfield//Dean – We’ll see but lots of promise and trending up. Winfield and Dean are the prize jewels from the last 2 draft classes in terms of DBs, but we’ll see on health for both of these guys (both of them having injury history, especially Dean).

      Smith – For the draft capital invested, this has been a solid pick for depth and especially Special Teams.

      Davis – Extremely good pick though lucky in multiple ways (we waited so long to draft him when he was easily the best player of the 3 between he, Jones, and Stewart…and it was completely incoherent for the system he was drafted into; Off-pedal Match Quarters/C3Z).

      10 picks. 3 were outright terrible and have turned out to be so. 1 has two years starting in completely different systems and has trended upward enormously and was one of the best CBs in the league by the end of the season last year. 2 more have a lot of promise with Dean having a ton of established, very good snaps, though the injury Sword of Damocles hangs over both of them. The other 3 are up in the air with enormously uneven play between those 3 players. And we have no FA veterans we can rely upon and no developed UFAs.

      If we falter because either Edge or DB depth in 2020, that is absolutely on the GM. If we succeed due to the absurd luck of getting Brady in FA (after our # 1 QB pick busted after enormous investment in capital), that isn’t some kind of legitimate mitigating factor.

      This GM has had a truly staggering amount of draft capital compared to the median capital of the league during his 7 year tenure. Just a HUGE advantage. This GM has had the ability to sign whatever the hell FAs he wanted simultaneously (which is a luxury that the overwhelming number of GMs don’t have) to bulwark his (continually) flagging roster (both front-line and depth)…and in that autonomy, he still managed to have a very poor to average iOL with absolutely no depth (despite Mack being a FA and the last 4 years being ABSOLUTELY LOADED with immediately successful iOL prospects in the draft).

      Good franchises with well-built rosters have weathered a slew of injuries plenty of times to make the playoffs. We have absolutely no ability to do so if we see a ton of missed time to a few key guys on this team.

    • Biggs3535

      Participant
      Post count: 6913

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

      No, we don’t all do it. One has to be pretty insecure to do something that meaningless. There are only a handful of posters that upvote their own posts.

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

      No, we don’t all do it. One has to be pretty insecure to do something that meaningless. There are only a handful of posters that upvote their own posts.

      The thumbs up/like feature on the internet is just awful. Its supposed to be some kind of meritocracy/social capital in the arena of ideas but its overwhelmingly nonsense, shallow, and polluted. I absolutely loathe it and I loathe it more given that there is a chance that someone’s mental bandwidth was spent developing it and/or implementing it when there are tons of other more helpful features to human interaction on the interact that said bandwidth/capital could have been spent on.

    • tampaspicer

      Participant
      Post count: 3484

      Simple minded people huh @nobody?

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      Simple minded people huh @nobody?

      Its not that its an outlet for simpleminded people (we’re all both simple and complex). Its that it amplifies many of the worst evolved tendencies of human nature (groupthink, othering, reliance upon bad heuristics, resorting to orthodoxy) while not enabling important aspects of human exchange (visual and auditory cues) and crowding out the recent advances in human thought and exchange of ideas (development of complex thoughts or correction of prior perception in real time with assimilating new, complex information that can only come as the byproduct of two or more people engaging in forgiving, understanding, humble exchange that isn’t character limited or undertaken before a frothing crowd in virtual gladiatorial combat).

    • tampaspicer

      Participant
      Post count: 3484

      I’m of the belief that everyone needs to step outside of their comfort zone to become a better person.

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

      No, we don’t all do it. One has to be pretty insecure to do something that meaningless. There are only a handful of posters that upvote their own posts.

      Biggs, I’m quite sure you upvote yourself, because I once saw an upvote on one of your posts. Thanks for your psychological evaluation. Are you working on your psych degree during shifts at the warehouse? Better hurry up, the robots are coming. But I got some bad news about your Trump University….

      What is severely lacking on this board is people with a sense of humor. That’s one thing I’m sure about. In the meantime, I’ll continue to upvote myself. It feels good. But I really like getting all those downvotes, so keep ’em coming. Because I know who posts on this board, and if they agreed with me I’d really be worried.

    • Biggs3535

      Participant
      Post count: 6913

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

      No, we don’t all do it. One has to be pretty insecure to do something that meaningless. There are only a handful of posters that upvote their own posts.

      The thumbs up/like feature on the internet is just awful. Its supposed to be some kind of meritocracy/social capital in the arena of ideas but its overwhelmingly nonsense, shallow, and polluted. I absolutely loathe it and I loathe it more given that there is a chance that someone’s mental bandwidth was spent developing it and/or implementing it when there are tons of other more helpful features to human interaction on the interact that said bandwidth/capital could have been spent on.

      Agreed, it’s a pointless function – except for those needy and insecure enough to upvote their own posts. Those folks need it to feel good about themselves, unfortunately.

      Good to see you back, brother.

    • tampaspicer

      Participant
      Post count: 3484

      What’s wrong with feeling good about yourself?

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      As for the poll, so far its 9-1 putting responsibility on Licht, but I’m really interested in the vote of some of the regular Licht bashers, which let me reiterate I’m not negating that point of view. Its legitimate to say the least.

      But my point of this thread is that if you are going to drum the drumbeat of how bad Licht is because of the Bucs record, then if the Bucs have success this year you can’t then start coming up with reasons why Licht wasn’t responsible for it. Either he’s responsible, or he isn’t. So I’m inviting the Licht haters to register their vote and commit that if the Bucs win they will give Licht his due for putting this team together. Otherwise I call that hypocrisy. I don’t see Firelicht’s vote. What’s your vote, @Firelicht?

    • TBayXXXVII

      Participant
      Post count: 2082

      Yes I give myself a thumbs up. We all do it. Its human nature.

      No, we don’t all do it. One has to be pretty insecure to do something that meaningless. There are only a handful of posters that upvote their own posts.

      The thumbs up/like feature on the internet is just awful. Its supposed to be some kind of meritocracy/social capital in the arena of ideas but its overwhelmingly nonsense, shallow, and polluted. I absolutely loathe it and I loathe it more given that there is a chance that someone’s mental bandwidth was spent developing it and/or implementing it when there are tons of other more helpful features to human interaction on the interact that said bandwidth/capital could have been spent on.

      I agree with this.

    • FsstNfurios

      Participant
      Post count: 169

      What’s wrong with feeling good about yourself?

      If you need virtual “likes” & “thumbs up” from anonymous people to feel good about yourself then that is a definite sign of weakness and/or insecurity. Like who tf cares if a bunch of slapdicks over the internet agree with you or not.

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      This is a funny topic. And really what makes a gm successful. The best gms we have seen go hand in hand with the best QBs we have seen. Give me a list of the top 5 gms, and I’m sure the list of top 5 QBs will be about the same.

    • Hockey Duckie

      Participant
      Post count: 1544

      I’m with @Nobody. I didn’t vote on the poll because it’s isolating a single season to make up for the past six years (technically four years because Lovie Smith was in charge of the 53-man roster).

      Brady picked us. Gronk picked us because of Brady.

      GM Licht wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for Arians. Arians failed last year, which should have fired Licht. LoL

      As @Nobody stated, we’re thin at several positions. That’s all because of Licht.

      I’m hyped to win a Super bowl, but I don’t give a lot of credit to Licht. We’re gonna need a lot of luck with health this year to be Super bowl bound.

    • seekpar

      Participant
      Post count: 1283

      I didn’t vote either. I see the responsibility for the 2020 season as a shared responsibility spread among the GM, coaches, and players. Granted Licht’s performance has been spotty at best. There is talent on this team. The coaches need to develop the players and put them in a position to win. The players need to learn their positions and train for optimum performance.

    • TBayXXXVII

      Participant
      Post count: 2082

      This is a funny topic. And really what makes a gm successful. The best gms we have seen go hand in hand with the best QBs we have seen. Give me a list of the top 5 gms, and I’m sure the list of top 5 QBs will be about the same.

      I’m willing to bet there’s a lot of truth in this.

    • TBayXXXVII

      Participant
      Post count: 2082

      I’m with @Nobody. I didn’t vote on the poll because it’s isolating a single season to make up for the past six years (technically four years because Lovie Smith was in charge of the 53-man roster).

      Brady picked us. Gronk picked us because of Brady.

      GM Licht wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for Arians. Arians failed last year, which should have fired Licht. LoL

      As @Nobody stated, we’re thin at several positions. That’s all because of Licht.

      I’m hyped to win a Super bowl, but I don’t give a lot of credit to Licht. We’re gonna need a lot of luck with health this year to be Super bowl bound.

      While I agree with boy yours and @nobody‘s assessments, I think a lot of teams are in this boat. Basically, unless you have a QB on their rookie contract, you’re probably in the same situation.

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      I’m with @Nobody. I didn’t vote on the poll because it’s isolating a single season to make up for the past six years (technically four years because Lovie Smith was in charge of the 53-man roster).

      Brady picked us. Gronk picked us because of Brady.

      GM Licht wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for Arians. Arians failed last year, which should have fired Licht. LoL

      As @Nobody stated, we’re thin at several positions. That’s all because of Licht.

      I’m hyped to win a Super bowl, but I don’t give a lot of credit to Licht. We’re gonna need a lot of luck with health this year to be Super bowl bound.

      I was very clear that this poll is just about 2020, and its not absolving the past, or saying that it makes up for the past, or saying that it should or shouldn’t save his job.

      I’m simply trying to establish if Licht is responsible for this year 2020 or not before the year starts. I’m pretty sure that if this season flops, YOU are going to blame Licht, and rightfully so. So I just want to make sure that if the season is a success YOU are going to credit Licht for having a good year. Doesn’t mean you still don’t think he should have been fired or still should be fired. And again we haven’t played a down this year, so at this point he deserves no credit at all at this point.

      As for Brady, yes he chose Tampa Bay, but he chose it for a reason. What was that reason? Was it the offensive firepower assembled here? That was Jason Licht who assembled that firepower, correct?

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      @Nobody, of course I can’t dispute anything you say. But nevertheless, the players who are on the roster were brought here by Licht.

      I think you are giving too much credit to Brady. There is a lot of hype, but the fact is he’s 43. If he has a good team around him, he’ll make sure that team will live up to its potential. But he won’t be able to take a mediocre team and hoist it onto his shoulders like he could have done in years past. If Licht has put together a mediocre team, I have some bad news for him if he thinks Brady is going to bail him out.

      Perhaps some people love these sorts of surveys, but I really don’t care for them in either a “that’s interesting social data about Buccaneers fans” sort of way or a “this captures a robust holistic analysis of GM Licht’s contributions to 2020” sort of way.

      The first one doesn’t interest me at all. The second one interests me very much. However, the implication I feel may be attempted to be smuggled in is “if 2020 is successful and you feel Licht is responsible for 2020, then Licht’s 7 year tenure becomes redeemed.”

      Here are grades of success in 2020 and what they say about anything.

      1 – If Brady stays healthy we will win 10 games and make the playoffs. What this says is “the modern NFL is a QB-driven league and the Replacement Cost Value between elite/borderline elite QB play and slightly below median expectation QB play is a vast chasm (3-4 games…which is enormous).

      2 – If Brady stays health, our top two Edge rushers, our boundary CBs, and top 6 OL stay relatively healthy, we will win a playoff game and be a threat for the NFC title.

      3 – Brady is injured at some point and we win 6-8 games (assuming its sometime before the mid-way point).

      4 – Brady stays healthy, but Barrett and Davis or Dean miss a lot of time. If that happens, we will struggle terribly on defense and struggle for a wildcard.

      5 – We suffer a string of iOL injuries and we struggle for a wildcard. There is no Dante Scarnecchia here to turn chicken shit into chicken salad. If Marpet goes down…we’re in trouble…if two guys go down for extended snaps, we’re in trouble (which increases the risk of injury to Brady…which is how he got injured the only time in his career).

      All of these things tell me what I already know:

      * We (Licht especially) are unbelievably lucky that Brady became available and signed on for this year after we (Licht) busted on our #1 QB pick (which virtually no GM ever survives).

      * We have missed multiple times on Edge in the draft (either selecting the wrong player or eschewing a prospect for another positional prospect) + FA (including the cap situation that made it so we couldn’t resign Nassib or sign depth and including not drafting any of the myriad of available promising Edge prospects this year and last year). This has created an unbelievably paper thin situation at Edge. We don’t remotely have a rotation…but forget about rotation…if we suffer an injury there (particularly to Barrett), we are in a world of hurt on defense.

      * Despite throwing an unbelievable amount of assets at the Defensive Backfield, we are paper thin at boundary CB. If Davis or Dean go down, we are in a world of hurt. Like Edge, forget actual successful snaps/proven commodity in the NFL, the boundary snaps at Press Man coverage in our defensive backfield are just non-existent.

      As to the 2nd two *, no, anyone’s answer of “no one has depth in the NFL” is fundamentally wrong. If you look at the roster construction of most teams that are perennially successful over a period of years on defense, you see a continual infusion of talent (both draft and FA) into the ranks and those assets invested actually yield depth (Baltimore, Eagles, SF, New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Seattle, GB, Minnesota, and NO the last 3-4 years). We haven’t done that. Our roster construction/future planning/retention has been all over the place. The only thing we’ve done consistently is draft a ton of Safeties/hybrid DBs and a scant few of those have “worked” (worked meaning played meaningful successful snaps and/or been reliable depth:

      VH3/MJ Stewart/Justin Evans – Bad picks from the word go and those bad picks have set us back in multiple ways.

      SMB/Whitehead/Edwards – We’ll see.

      Winfield//Dean – We’ll see but lots of promise and trending up. Winfield and Dean are the prize jewels from the last 2 draft classes in terms of DBs, but we’ll see on health for both of these guys (both of them having injury history, especially Dean).

      Smith – For the draft capital invested, this has been a solid pick for depth and especially Special Teams.

      Davis – Extremely good pick though lucky in multiple ways (we waited so long to draft him when he was easily the best player of the 3 between he, Jones, and Stewart…and it was completely incoherent for the system he was drafted into; Off-pedal Match Quarters/C3Z).

      10 picks. 3 were outright terrible and have turned out to be so. 1 has two years starting in completely different systems and has trended upward enormously and was one of the best CBs in the league by the end of the season last year. 2 more have a lot of promise with Dean having a ton of established, very good snaps, though the injury Sword of Damocles hangs over both of them. The other 3 are up in the air with enormously uneven play between those 3 players. And we have no FA veterans we can rely upon and no developed UFAs.

      If we falter because either Edge or DB depth in 2020, that is absolutely on the GM. If we succeed due to the absurd luck of getting Brady in FA (after our # 1 QB pick busted after enormous investment in capital), that isn’t some kind of legitimate mitigating factor.

      This GM has had a truly staggering amount of draft capital compared to the median capital of the league during his 7 year tenure. Just a HUGE advantage. This GM has had the ability to sign whatever the hell FAs he wanted simultaneously (which is a luxury that the overwhelming number of GMs don’t have) to bulwark his (continually) flagging roster (both front-line and depth)…and in that autonomy, he still managed to have a very poor to average iOL with absolutely no depth (despite Mack being a FA and the last 4 years being ABSOLUTELY LOADED with immediately successful iOL prospects in the draft).

      Good franchises with well-built rosters have weathered a slew of injuries plenty of times to make the playoffs. We have absolutely no ability to do so if we see a ton of missed time to a few key guys on this team.

    • Dy-nasty D

      Participant
      Post count: 268

      I’ve always thought the roster was poorly constructed. Too much emphasis on offensive skills players, not enough DL and OL. Licht was obviously desperate for Winston to work out.

      I don’t blame Licht for the Winston pick. Any GM who needed a QB would’ve picked him or Mariota. Fans and owners would have crucified him if he had passed. Jameis had more upside. It failed.

      The irony is that the stockpiling of skill position players brought Brady here. Luck is always a factor, but it wasn’t complete luck.

      Oh, and he trades up way too often.

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      Its 18-1 giving Licht the responsibility, for better or for worse, for this season

      No one voted for responsibility for losing, but not for winning. Perhaps there are those who didn’t vote because they didn’t want to have to put their icon on that choice even if that’s where it would go. But that would be hypocritical.

      I’m not trying to smuggle in any suggestion that this would somehow absolve Licht of his past performance. Not at all. Even if we win, does that mean Licht is overall a good GM? I’m not making that claim. You can argue that on another thread.

      I’m not hiding my motivation for this thread. I’ll try to spell it out better. Licht gets the blame for the losing, as he should. People on this board are more than willing to spell out everything Licht has done to contriute to the losing. But then if the Bucs win you can’t then say he’s not responsible for that. That isn’t fair. Either he’s responsible, or he isn’t. That’s it.

    • tampaspicer

      Participant
      Post count: 3484

      What’s wrong with feeling good about yourself?

      If you need virtual “likes” & “thumbs up” from anonymous people to feel good about yourself then that is a definite sign of weakness and/or insecurity. Like who tf cares if a bunch of slapdicks over the internet agree with you or not.

      I personally don’t but feel really good about who I am. I wish more people were like me but I’m a rare breed. LOL

    • Buc on the Move

      Participant
      Post count: 1522

      If in year 7, Licht can finally get us back to the playoffs, then he will get credit for that, and his record will go to 1-6. Which still makes him a loser, who has just “done something lately.”

      This discussion is more about how quick should you expect returns in the NFL. Some definitely argue it should be immediately expected, and there are plenty of turnaround examples to back that up. Others may say we need to give guys more of a chance. I personally think Licht was given more time than he deserved, and if he finally manages to pull a rabbit out of the hat instead of a shit sandwich, then sure he can get credit for that, but he won’t be the one I’ll be celebrating. A good GM keeps your team consistently in contention. That’s what we had with McKay back in the day. Even a superbowl won’t put us back in that kind of realm.

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 445

      Licht has no idea what he’s doing.

    • Trask Force

      Participant
      Post count: 4084

      @Buc on the move,

      As I said, that’s a bridge to cross when we come to it, although in Bucland I doubt people will wait for the bridge. We all have hopes this will be a good year, not just because of Brady and Gronk, but because of the improved defense and the offensive weapons. But as we all know the best laid plans often go awry in the NFL.

      If we don’t make the playoffs Licht has to take the fall. I don’t care what the reason is. If a meteor hits and causes the Bucs to lose, Licht has to take the blame for that. There can’t be any debate that Licht gets fired if we don’t make the playoffs.

      If we do make the playoffs, then it becomes a debate. Some will say fire him anyway, others will say he should stay. But first things first. Lets win.

    • BMurph

      Participant
      Post count: 11

      Yes but Brady picked us due to the talent on the roster, which is from Licht. Yes he has his misses, but so does every GM. Look at the percentages of every GM in the league, But I agree that Licht misses in the second rounds have been pretty bad. Regarding this season, like every season, the talent on the roster falls squarely on Licht. Let’s see how it plays out, I voted number one

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      I’m going to post some random thoughts on Licht, roster construction, injuries, a QBs role in the modern NFL, Brady, 2019, and instantiating a season (say) 1000 times.

      * The 2019 Buccaneers had extraordinary good fortune when it comes to injuries. They lost JPP for the beginning of the season. Outside of that, they really only lost Mike and Godwin for a few games at the end of the season. In the continuum of “bit by the injury bug in the NFL, that is amazingly good luck:”

      – QB healthy all season.
      – Miniscule issues on the OL (Cappa, their weakest link, missed a few games…thats it).
      – Fantastic health in the defensive backfield.
      – Somehow, the most injury prone positions (RB and off-ball LB), had incredibly good health.
      – iDL healthy all year.

      That sort of luck on the injury front is just not sustainable. We’ve had several years in the last decade that have dramatically worse than 2019.

      * If you took the 2019 roster construction and (a) gave it a typical spread of NFL injuries, (b) bog standard/low variance NFL QB play (right in the middle of the pick) who neither makes a ton of plays nor turns the ball over a ton (the 2019 performances of a Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew, Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett fit the model here) and instantiated the 2019 NFL season 1000 times…I say that team is about a 7.5 (7-8) win team the overwhelming % of those 1000 instantiations.

      When I look at that team in retrospect, that is exactly what the identity of that roster is at large; about a 7 win team. The reality was that we had relatively good luck with injuries and high variance, below average QBing. The good fortune of luck helped us in the win column, but the devastating QBing knocked us back from average.

      As such, my thoughts on the 2019 team (as Jason Licht built it…with his QB chosen # 1…that busted…and cost us dearly), is it is constructed to be about a 7 win team (given a normal spread of injuries).

      * Lets compare that 2019 roster to this 2020 roster while subbing in that (again) bog standard, low variance NFL QBing.

      iDL – This is the same team except Vea may ascend a little and Suh and Gholston could both regress a little due to age. We are fundamentally worse here in terms of depth and its exacerbated because we could easily have been better here in terms of all of (a) infusion of talented youth, (b) veteran depth, (c) and/or actual veteran productivity (there were several talented iDL on the market that we could have put resources toward both for this year and for the long term). An injury to Vea is catastrophic, but any injury is going to hurt us.

      Edge – We are CRITICALLY low on depth here compared to last year. JPP is another year older and nearing 32. Edge production tends to drop off here significantly (and, again, last year his production was overwhelmingly in 2 games and it was of the opportunistic variety where Barrett and Vea drew doubles and made a mess of the pocket). Any injuries here will be absolutely brutal (and its made worse because we could have addressed this position in the draft in both of the last 2 years and had an infusion of youthful talent).

      ILB – White should be better this year so there is that. However, again, depth. We’re also facing down the prospect of having enormously difficulty with LVD’s contract situation for next year.

      CB – We’re much better here than at the beginning of last year merely due to the jettisoning of draft busts VH3 and Hargreaves. Davis ascended, Dean played well, SMB should be better this year. We’re clearly better here this year vs last.

      S – Again, frontline play and depth…clearly better this year vs last.

      OL – Clearly better this year than last year though our depth is (just as it was in 2019) precariously thin. The normal spread of NFL injuries and Joe Haeg and another OL is playing a lot of NFL snaps.

      RB – Not that it really matters, but we basically subbed an UDFA for a 3rd round pick that is likely to be a similar player and we brought in McCoy who is a decent receiver out of the backfield (though certainly not prolific or gamebreaking) and isn’t likely to see a ton of hugely meaningful snaps (he’s never been a good Pass Protector). We didn’t have good protection from the RB position in 2019 and nothing has happened to make you think that is changed. I don’t see how this position group is better in 2020 than in 19. More veteran depth and a minor functional upgrade in the passing game.

      TE – Obviously this position group got a potential big influx in talent. But that is dependent upon (a) Gronk playing like he did 3 years ago and (b) somehow managing to stay health (despite the fact that he has struggled with this for 12 years – since college). When you’re white room theorycrafting…yes, upgraded TE room. If you’re instantiating the 2020 NFL season 1000 times…how many of those season do both (a) and (b) manifest simultaneously? My guess is…likely just south of 50 %. So the smart money is on either (a) or (b) biting us hard (because of the huge amount of sunk assets here and what it takes away from other position groups).

      WR – Perriman vs TJ + another year of potential growth from Watson and Miller. Personally, I like our present situation in 2020 over 2019 (if you take away the lack of TC for TJ).

      * So then…if you ask me what this roster, as presently constructed, and with a bog standard/low variance NFL QB, produces in wins if you instantiated the 2020 season 1000 times? My guess is it is about .5 games better than the 2020 one; about an 8 win team.

      Injuries would hurt this 2020 team much more than that 2019 in 1000 instantiations and this team has several players that have had a myriad of injuries in their careers and have added a few more (Gronk and Winfield). If you take Brady out of the equation (as we are for this examination), injury propensity on this team has increased while depth at key places (iDL and Edge) has decreased.

      However, the starting Defensive Backfield, OL, ILB, TE group should theoretically be better in 2020 vs 2019.

      Take the two together and, over 1000 instantiated games w/ bog standard/low variance NFL QBing, this team is slightly better.

      * Brady is, simply (even at this point in his career), somewhere around 2.5 games (2-3 games) better than that bog standard/low variance NFL QB.

      So, my thoughts are that if you instantiated 2020 1000 times with Brady at the helm, you would probably see a spread of something like this:

      12 wins – 150 times (15 %)
      11 wins – 200 times (20 %)
      10 wins – 400 times (50 %)
      9 wins – 150 times (10 %)
      8 wins or less – (5 %)

      So in my mind, Brady is absolutely…100 % the overwhelming signal of this season. Not only does a QB still sitting on the cusp of elite + hugely clutch + low variance increase the upper bound of the spread of possible wins, but he tilts the continuum dramatically in favor of that upper end.

      That is how important a QB like Brady is. A 5-6 win roster becomes a team that can perennially contend to sneak into the playoffs. An 8 win roster becomes a near lock of a playoff team. A playoff roster becomes a lock for Superbowl contender. A Superbowl contending roster turns into a dynasty.

      we are in 8 win roster. That is Licht’s signal in all of this. A signal that has surely had more draft and FA capital resources than any other NFL GM over his tenure.

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      I’m not trying to seem funny on this, but what teams have great depth behind all of their starters. Who is behind Bradley Chubb and Von Miller in Denver? Who is replacing Zach Martin or Nelson on Dallas and Indy? Philly had to bring back Jason Peters to play guard because of the brooks injury. I think it’s awesome to think a 3rd round prospect that graded well can come in and replace a serviceable starter, but the truth is it doesn’t happen often. Having a great qb and relatively good health is what wins games. Our biggest needs coming into the offseason were qb, ol, safety and rb. We attempted to fill all of those positions thru free agency in the draft. We lost zero starters on a front 7 that was number 1 against the run. We added what we hope is an upgrade in an improving secondary. Did we lose depth? Yes. We lost a player we signed off of the browns practice squad, a back nose tackle. We are hoping players we drafted the past two years step Up to fill that void.

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      @DerekPHFD

      Its more illuminating to focus on roster construction overall then just answer the questions you’re asking.

      Or, better still, its better to focus on roster construction by teams that are perennial contenders.

      But lets look just look at the first part of your question.

      “Who is behind Bradley Chubb and Von Miller?”

      Now, lets start with this reality in Denver circa 2017.

      That Denver team was living under the following reality:

      * They had one of the best Edge players in NFL history who was still producing at a huge rate.
      * They had Shaq who had consecutive years of great pass rush and who was coming off of a year of a huge Pressure Rate.
      * They had Shane Ray who was coming off an 11.33 % Pressure Rate (FANTASTIC) his first 3 years including 70 Pressures in his first 2 years.
      * They had a promising young Edge player who was well over 11 % Pressure Rate in his first 3 years as a rotational player.

      They had those 4 guys…and what did they do? They STILL drafted Bradley Chubb (who dominated year 1)!

      Who else continues to infuse the Edge position with talent year after year?

      Baltimore
      Philadelphia
      New England
      San Francisco
      Pittsburgh

      …among others.

      You’ll also see those same winning teams continuously infuse the OL with talent. They don’t continuously take flyers on DBs (particularly Safeties), tweener players (especially the double whammy of tweener DBs…which we love to do), and spend premium picks on lower value/high injury potential positions (particularly multiple times).

      *******************

      As for the Cowboys…they’ve had one of the top 3 OLs in the NFL for the last 8 years. Yet they’ve still spent a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 5th in the last 3 drafts to continually infuse their top 3 OL with talent.
      And yes, they also develop their talent better.

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      I get what you are saying, but you are giving me Shane ray who had terrible off the field issues for Denver, shaq Barrett whom they decided not to pay 5 million a year for, and Chubb who missed a year with injury. I’m glad they invested heavy into the edge position. But other than von Miller they haven’t consistently had anyone: it’s why they keep investing. What edge players have Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or even philly invested in recently? New England has not invested any high picks or money into edge either. I will give you San Fran, but until Last year they were nfc west bottom dwellers .

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      And as for the cowboys, well they have been consistently mediocre

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      And I will tell you something crazy, New England has taken a flyer on a db in the first or second round since 2006

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      We’re kind of all over the place on switching the premise of the conversation.

      You brought the Cowboys up in a specific situation (their OL, their depth, and investment). That was why I answered that. “Why are they a consistently mediocre team” is another question (there are many reasons…merely having the best OL in the league and continuously investing in it over a series of years guarantees you nothing).

      You brought up Denver in a specific situation (their Edge, their depth, and investment). That was why I answered that.

      I’m not sure why you think “they had nothing” outside of Von Miller. I brought up their situation in 2017. They were # 1 DVOA defense in 2016 due in large part to those guys I mentioned; 4 guys capable of producing an absurd 11+ % Pressure Rate. Guess how many instances of 11+ % Pressure Rate from Edge players we’ve had since 2016?..let alone in 1 year!

      I think the answer to the answer to “why did they let Barrett go” is pretty simple:

      a) Because they planned to continue to infuse their team with Edge talent.

      b) Because they made a bad micro-decision (which turned into our good fortune…of which I heaped tons of praise on Licht for it when he made the move and said, before the season, it was Licht’s best FA move easily and one of his best roster decisions in total)…which poor franchises tend to do (micro-decisions are different than holistic roster construction).

      EDGE RUSH INVESTMENT

      Baltimore last 2 years – Jaylon Ferguson, Malik Harrison (38 Pressures on 168 Pass Rush…they will definitely use him in Edge Rush as a package player), Kenny Young (15 Pressures on 59 Rotational Pass Rush snaps his Rookie year).

      Pittsburgh last 4 years – TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith (16 Sacks/51 Pressures in 323 Pass Rush Snaps last year), Bud Dupree, 2 other players that haven’t panned out thus far…while having a very productive James Harrison in his final year and other tweener players that would swing from off-ball to on-ball rush.

      Philly last 4 years – Signed Michael Bennett in FA, Davion Taylor (tons of on-ball snaps and productive pass rush, particularly 2018), Shareef Miller, Josh Sweat, Derek Barnett.

      New England since 2015 – They’ve signed FA/traded for multiple (productive) players to short contracts like Van Noy/Long/Sheard/Clayborne had a very productive 2018 for them, and spent 7 picks on rotational Edge rush (or heavier snap like Flowers and Winovich).

      +++++++++++++++++++

      Edge Rush is just an example. I don’t want to get stuck on singular pieces of the puzzle. Its the holistic picture that is important.

      This is a Passing League.

      DO

      * Make the correct pick at QB.

      * Spend on and continuously infuse rush (wherever it comes from).

      * Spend assets (including FA vets) on quality CBs and infuse so you’re confident in 1-4 (they don’t have to be great…but they can’t be outright liabilities) to stop the quick game so your rush can do its work.

      * Spend assets on and continuously infuse your OL with depth to keep your QB upright.

      * Prioritize passing game play-makers.

      * Plan for the future with respect to future drafts and the future FA market when it comes to refreshing these positions.

      DON’T DO

      * Miss on a QB (particularly a high draft pick)

      * Spend a huge number of assets on tweener DBs or DBs that dont’ fit scheme with a completely incoherent vision of their place, while missing left and right (causing you to invest yet more picks).

      * Spend high value assets on non-premium positions that don’t age well, injure often, and aren’t 1st order amplifiers or defenders of the passing game (TEs, off-ball LBs, tweener defenders, RBs who aren’t dynamic assets in the passing game, Kickers/Punters).

      * Fail to address non-premium positions when proven commodity FAs somehow become available at a good prices in a position of need for you…such that you have to overspend on those same positions later (be it via FA or draft assets).

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      Sorry I wasn’t trying to derail the topic I was just pointing out that teams build differently. NE has done the same thing for 14 years in terms of drafting dbs in the first and second round. Perhaps they have had the luxury of Tom Brady and a great o line coach to allow them to do that. I keep bringing up New England because they have been the most consistent team for 2 decades.

      To the OPs question, I have would have been ok with Licht getting fired 2 years ago, but I will also give home some credit if our secondary continues to improve, our front seven stays a top run stopping unit, our o line holds up well enough to keep Brady upright and our playmakers continue to be a top 5 unit. I do think all of those things are possible. Of course, if we suffer an injury to a starting edge rusher or nose tackle or QB, we will be in rough shape. But I think most teams would be SOL if starters at premium positions go down. Licht has brought in enough talent for us to be tops in the league in passing and run stopping. He deserves credit for that. If the secondary can even preform mid tier and running game can perform mid tier, we are a playoff team with the pieces he has put together. He was allowed more time to reach this point than he probably should have been, but he did build what we have now.

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      Related to my thoughts above. One thing that would prove me very wrong would be (and its been hinted at) if (a) Devin White gets a lot of look at Edge Pass Rush subpackage this year and (b) he shows productivity with burst + bend + dip/rip + finish and/or counter moved.

      I could easily see some 3 Safety Dime Pass Rush packages as follows:

      iDL – Vea, JPP
      Edge – Barrett, White
      ILB – David
      DBs – Winfield, Whitehead, Edwards, Davis, Dean, SMB

      If White can show the snap anticipation + hand-use + rush suite chops, I’d love to see us feature this package a hell of a lot on 3rd and 5+ this year.

    • Buc on the Move

      Participant
      Post count: 1522

      That is an exciting Dime package. I can’t remember us really using anything like that last year? I did miss several games while at sea, did we employ D. White off the edge?

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      We did not.

      But the coaches have been talking about it (White playing some Edge) in the offseason and Foote mentioned it yesterday.

    • Buc on the Move

      Participant
      Post count: 1522

      I’m game, that could help improve our depth outlook at the EDGE position, just by changing up the formations/packages some.

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      Just want to put these two posts here as rejoinder to the “no one has depth and no team overcomes substantial roster attrition (through injuries/FA/retirement) to compete” narrative. Again (and again, and again, and again)…its just not true. The data and the unfolded reality of the last many years completely push back against that idea.



      @tog
      posted this and then I followed up afterward:

      ========================

      That’s not true at all. Many teams have strong depth and ride it to a successful season. A great example, and far from an anomaly, was the 2017 Eagles who had 12 players on IR by the Super Bowl, including their QB and stud LT.

      There are many more teams like this. In 2019, using FO’s Adjusted Games Lost to Injury (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat- … st-part-ii) metric: The 49ers were the 5th most injured team. The Patriots were 10th. The Chiefs 15th. Baltimore, another team with elite depth, was 17th.

      For interest sake the Bucs were 31st ranked team in injuries (aka very few injuries) in 2019.

      In 2018, of the top 4 regular season teams: KC was 9th, NE 18th, NO was 6th, and LAR was 4th. All these teams had a lot of injuries, yet still emerged as the best teams in the NFL.

      In 2018 the Bucs had the 30th fewest injuries.

      ==================

      What @tog is saying is something I’ve been saying for a while and very often. There are plenty more cases out there than the 2017 Eagles and there are teams that have survived long regimes of injuries due to roster construction that consists of some mix of:

      * Consistently infusing pass rush with players that can be at least marginally productive.
      * Consistently infusing the OL (especially iOL) with players that are not liabilities.
      * Picking the right DBs that can at least stop the modern NFL quick passing game (this includes depth that isn’t incompetent).
      * Not whiffing at a QB that you’ve invested deeply into (either by draft assets or FA assets or both).

      2014-2018, the teams that had the most games missed by injury were:

      Seattle
      New England
      Indianapolis
      Baltimore

      Its actually not close in that period (the median for that period is 900 games lost due to injury…they’ve each incurred ~ 150 % of that…this isn’t remotely just a case of bottom of the roster “bodies”…and when you consider that bottom of the roster is your special teams core, that is especially significant). These are teams that have been perennial playoff contenders throughout this period. How have they done that? By doing at least 2-3 of the above. Consistent playoff contention in the modern NFL is accomplished through elite QBing, solid coaching and player development, and roster construction that can contend with the demands of the modern NFL passing game and survive the inevitable attrition through injuries/FA/retirement in the above areas.

      The Seahawks survived heavy games missed by Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Byron Maxwell during that span. They did it because they consistently infused that defensive backfield with great talent (despite their 2018/19 Pass Rush being below average in Pressures and Pass Rush Productivity, their 2018/2019 Pass Defense was still better than league average despite having virtually none of those guys above play snaps).

      The Patriots, Colts, and Baltimore over that course have been infusing their Pass Rush and OL (well above the norm) with new assets so they can ensure depth and survive injuries.

    • JC5100

      Participant
      Post count: 3287

      What’s been disappointing beyond the missed 2nd round picks is the wasted cap space. 2 years ago I made a thread about how Licht wasted over $100M of cap space from 2014-2018. The Bucs found 3 hidden gems: Humphries, Nassib, McDougald. Are they All-Pros? No, but they were very solid niche players who performed well here. Bucs let them go over money but have no problem dishing it out for Jensen, trading for JPP, trading for Gronk who we didn’t even need.

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      Seattle- Wilson
      Indy- Luck
      New England- Brady
      Baltimore 10-6, and were 3rd in he division, 5-11, 8-8, 9-7 during those 4 years. The 5-11 year was the year there were hit hardest by injuries.

      I know depth is important, I’m not trying to say I don’t want solid depth at every position, but truth is healthy all pro quarterbacks are what’s important. Kansas City is not a super bowl winner without mahommes, ravens are not the class of the north without Jackson, Seattle isn’t a personal power without Wilson. Houston is nothing without Watson. Yes there is a chance you get a hot hands like Foles, but I don’t think the eagles are even in the playoffs that year if wentz doesn’t play at an mvp before injury and if foles is the starter.

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      On Baltimore –

      You’re missing a 10-6 season in there. And the litmus test here is “perennial playoff contender.” In that 5 year run (where they were top 4 in games lost due to injuries), they went 10-6 * 2, 9-7 * 1, 8-8 * 1, and one bad season out of contention at 5-11. That is 4 out of 5 years where they’re in playoff contention.

      And its more than that.

      1) 4/5 years in playoff contention with top 4 most games lost due to injury in the NFL
      2) 4/5 years in playoff contention with one of the worst QBing situations in the entirety of the NFL. They went 10-6 the year Jackson took over, but that was only for the final 7 games. Flacco started more than half the season.

      How have they done this? By doing 3 of the 4 that I mentioned above. They have had plenty of front-line OL/Edge/iDL/DB injuries in that period (much more than us). But they survive it because of (a) how well they draft/FA saavy depth moves they make (be it retention or bringing people in) and (b) how much they devote resources to those positions. I don’t know the numbers, but I’m sure they also play the Comp pick game much better than we have had during that interval (because we’re basically the worst in the league at it). And, finally, in terms of overall assets available, because they’ve been so much more competitive than us, their overall draft asset portfolio is much worse than what ours has been over the intervenig period (2014-2018).

      On Seattle –

      Yes Russell Wilson is a huge chunk of this. That is covered in 4 above (they hit on their QB…unlike us…who devoted WAAAAAAY more draft assets and we utterly whiffed and wasted 5 years). But its more than that…you have to win via the pass in the modern NFL and you have to defend the pass. They’ve devoted appropriate assets to the defensive backfield (and devotion here doesn’t just mean making a bunch of picks…it means making picks, retaining players, signing players) such that they’ve overturned their entire Legion of Boom secondary while still maintaining + defense against the Passing Game (while simultaneously having very low tier Pass Rush the last few years…unlike what The Legion of Boom was living under..which was an upper echelon Pass Rush).

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      Lets focus exclusively on Edge. Understand the following:

      Our 2 backups right now recorded…4 Total Pressures in 2019…on 110 Pass Rush snaps…or an utterly HORRIFIC 3.6 % Pressure Rate.

      How about the NFC Division Winners last year? How did their Edge Rush depth look compared to ours?

      NFC SOUTH

      NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

      Cameron Jordan
      Marcus Davenport

      133 Pressures and 22 Sacks between them.

      Elite Starting Edge rush on both sides.

      Their backups?

      Trey Hendrickson with 29 Pressures and an ELITE 14+ % Pressure Rate and they just drafted who (in my opinion) may be the best Edge rushing prospect in the 2019 draft (a few spots before we drafted…a RB…who likely won’t do much this year) in Zack Baun (wildly productive in Pass Rush for Wisconsin with length, snap anticipation, ridiculous burst and bend).

      Why is New Orleans in such good shape? Because they’ve repeatedly invested in the position over the years.

      Trey Hendrickson and Zack Baun are profoundly better than what we have to offer as rotational/sub-package/depth Edge players.

      NFC EAST

      PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

      4 Edge players with over 27 Pressures including 3 with over 41 apiece.

      Their “back-ups” had 41 Pressures and 27 Pressures and gaudy 16.9 % and 11 % Pressure Rates.

      NFC NORTH

      MINNESOTA VIKINGS

      4 Edge players with 25 + Pressures

      Starters with a ridiculous 24 Sacks and 154 Pressures

      Their “back-ups” had a combined 54 Pressures and a bit north of a 10 % Pressure Rate.

      NFC WEST

      SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

      Obviously their starters (Bosa and Armstead) are utterly dominant (21 Sacks and 142 Pressures)

      Their primary backup (Dee Ford) had 25 Pressures and a gaudy 15.4 % Pressure Rate. The other 3 guys they use in rotation had 21 Pressures and a very good 10.4 % Pressure Rate. Oh and they just drafted Kinlaw who will play a lot of 5 technique and Speed to Power the edge in Pass Rush.

      ————————-

      If we looked at the AFC, you’d see the same. The Edge depth/rotation for the above franchises is in the elite tier. Meanwhile, our depth at Edge has to be vying for worst in the NFL. Our depth at OL and iDL both have to be bottom 1/3 in the NFL. Our depth at CB is relying upon completely unknowns and unprovens.

      If Barrett goes down early…we are in so much trouble its difficult to understate it. JPP’s play when he came back year was overwhelmingly not about what he was doing. It was about (a) the attention that Barrett was drawing and (b) the ridiculous Pass Rush Win Rate he was generating despite that success. He constantly had protection slides to himself (and Vea was eating doubles on the interior) yet, despite that, he was winning repeatedly and forcing QBs off the spot and into other people who would clean up (despite only generating 1v1 stalemates).

      If Barrett goes down, JPP suddenly is getting a ton of attention. He couldn’t reproduce Barrett’s impact last year despite only seeing 1v1s. Now he’s in a situation where he is eating double teams. And Anthony Nelson is going to suddenly win 1v1s on the other side?

      A loss of any of Barrett, Vea, or CD3 is not surmountable (in terms of being able to play defense even in the same realm of proficiency) by this team as its presently constructed. Other perennial playoff teams can, and have, dealt with catastrophic injuries to key players because of their roster construction.

    • DerekPHFD

      Participant
      Post count: 350

      Thanks @nobody. I don’t consider myself a casual fan but I definitely don’t dig into the analytics so it’s always good to have others share knowledge I don’t normally have. I just think if cam Jordan goes down, the saints aren’t same team. It was proven with jones in KC go down the defense suffers terribly. I just look at it as when anyone loses elite players at certain positions they are not the same team. I know it seems obvious lol. But thanks for sharing insight!

    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6485

      @DerekPHFD

      No problem.

      Just one clarification. I absolutely agree that if Cam Jordan goes down, the Saints won’t be the same team. The question is if Hendrickson and Baun can combine for enough production such that their Edge Rush doesn’t suffer an insurmountable setback.

      I think that’s the case for those division teams listed above. However, it’s certainly not the case for us. Further, your 3rd and 4th Edge see a LOT of very meaningful Pass Rush snaps in both sub-package and rotation to keep guys fresh. All of those Division winners have a significant advantage on us due to that alone (even if no injuries occur).

    • Pepsi

      Participant
      Post count: 2065

      firs thread back after a long offseason break from viewing the board. Thanks @Nobody for saving me time so I dont have to think and write much yet. As im too lazy at the moment to write anything more than Licht sucks

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 3527

      Still blaming Jason licht for Jameis Winston I see, never change red board…. never change

Viewing 58 reply threads
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.