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    • Nobody

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      Post count: 6453

      How are people feeling about resign numbers here? Personally, I really don’t feel breaking the bank is warranted. Don’t get me wrong. I like Kwon a lot. I like his mentality on and off the field. Great intangibles. I just have some real concerns about allocating a cap space that is we’ll out of line of play output:

      1) He hasn’t progressed. He isn’t more consistent and he isn’t making more plays.

      2) He’s EXTREMELY inconsistent both intragame and game to game in all of:

      A) Tackling (pursuit angles and technique at contact).

      B) Zone drops and locating eligibles (everything from C2Z, T2, Qs, and all the varieties of C3. He does a solid job when he’s just dropping in a mid-zone with Man around him).

      C) Gap integrity. He overpursues and gets washed out of his run fit far too often.

      D) Related to the above, OCs are really starting to play to his tendencies and scheme him out of position with horizontal play dressing that nearly always seems to influence him.

      3) He’s had some availability issues (missed a 1/4 of the season in two of his 3 seasons due to a positive test and a hammy).

      4) Our defense just hasn’t been good enough while he’s been manning the helm. Yes, there are a lot of interfacing parts involved in that reality, but he has his role to play.

      Thoughts?

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    • J.A.S.H.E.R.

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      Post count: 2937

      Kwon is still raw and has been playing behind the world’s shittiest dline. Getting rid of him would be a huge mistake, his best football is ahead of him. He’s the hardest worker on the defense and is slowly but surely becoming a leader. Gotta build around a guy like that and coach up his deficiencies. Remember the game he had vs Atlanta a couple years ago, we haven’t seen one of our defensive players take over a game like that in years.

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    • J.A.S.H.E.R.

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      Post count: 2937

      Also Kwon is still only 23 years old….can’t expect a player that young to not make mistakes. Having a horrid defensive scheme which also lacks talent doesn’t help either.

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      • bucball1

        Participant
        Post count: 141

        There you go again justified being sorry it a culture of the fans now keep being sorry they’ll pay you just sad …

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    • Detrimental

      Participant
      Post count: 1543

      I think Bucs fans overrated him after his good rookie season. I think he is a good player especially considering we got him in the 4th rnd. That being said mentally he constantly has mental lapses in zone coverage and misses too many tackles. Has he improved since entering the league? Its hard to tell at this point but he is a hard worker speed demon with a nose for the football. He needs to develop his game in other areas before we call him elite but the upside is there. Just needs to work on being consistent.

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    • Jpoe

      Participant
      Post count: 51

      if we let kwon walk next year then I will be done with this franchise, too many times we have let great players walk and then they go on to perform and develop into great players somewhere else and i’m sick of it. KWON IS A KEEPER!!!!

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    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6453

      So back to the original post. This isn’t about “letting him walk.” This is about what sort of contract expectations should we balk at?

      I’m probably in the “anything north of 7.5 million” camp. The truly great, difference-making 4-3 LBs are around 10 mil per. These are guys that cover in Man, heed their Zone responsibilities, tackle consistently well, play with great discipline/aggression/pace, and make plays (some of them also putting their defense in the other team’s huddle). Kwon is somewhere in the bottom-middle of the next tier, which is around 7.5 Mil.

      When Kwon went out, Beckwith played comparably well in the middle (while not overpursuing or being influenced out of position).

      And what if we draft the kid from UCF?

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    • BucFanFromATL

      Participant
      Post count: 957

      The problems with having undersized LB’s really magnify when you have poor defensive line play. If the D-Line can’t keep Linemen from getting to the next level then your undersized LB’s will get exposed.

      Again this becomes the case in the pass game when the D-line can’t generate consistent pressure and get sacks. Usually undersized LB’s with speed are an asset in coverage because of there ability to cover ground underneath and make plays… however with no pass rush, the QB can stand in a clean pocket and wait for the coverage to breakdown in man or pick apart a zone.

      Our problems are not with the LB’s and DB’s… It is the D-line. If our D-line generated pressure like Sacksonville the narrative on all of our LB’s and DB’s would drastically change for the better.

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    • The Anti-Java

      Participant
      Post count: 7089

      Good to see you back @NOBODY.

      There is a decent chance Kwon has a new coaching staff next season. So I hesitate to judge him on past performance. If there is a new staff, it will be their job to evaluate him on whatever scheme they will be putting in place. And assuming there is a new GM, he will need to pay him on the hope he excels in a better scheme.

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    • CalicoJack55

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      Post count: 8516

      Are they going to a 3-4, yet?

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    • creamsicles

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      Post count: 591

      I like Kwon, but at the right price. Although all positions are important, inside LB is amongst the lowest on my priority list with safeties and running backs. This thinking is supported by franchise tender values which place these positions amongst the lowest in the league.

      If we’re a 4-3, I fear overallocating to LB. If we become a 3-4, the calculus could change and LB raises in importance, but that’s largely due to the need for LB edge rushers. Lavonte and Kwon would eat up a lot of cap.

      Granted, this only matters if we’re planning to spend all of our cap (which I hope we do).

      Unless we go all in on FA this year to stock our lines, I’d suggest giving Kwon his money now, but being ready to trade him or Lavonte if/when we need to free cap for higher priority areas. His trade value could increase with a long term deal in place, though I don’t know if there’s much of a market for his position.

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    • bucball1

      Participant
      Post count: 141

      I agree it’s somebody that wants a job every year for the NFL every so if a player ain’t did his job in 4 years no playoffs what are you keeping him for that goes for Winston an Evans too

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    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 778

      I like Kwon, but he’s a guy you don’t break the bank on. If you can sign him for a reasonable sum you do so as it’s never good to lose home grown talent but you don’t want to overpay everyone either. Some guys are irreplaceable but I don’t think he fits that category.

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    • Hank Scorpio

      Participant
      Post count: 394

      I like Kwon, but I also wouldn’t be sad to lose him. LBs are easy to replace both in FA and in the draft. But unless he bombs out this season, I’m betting he re-signs with us at a mid range starting ILB salary ($7ish million per yr).

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    • JC5100

      Participant
      Post count: 2978

      Over-rated. Doesn’t do the little things right but makes splash plays. The little things add up and lead to first downs. Would rather see Beckwith get a shot at Mike.

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    • SO CAL BUC FAN

      Participant
      Post count: 221

      Here is his stats/valuation cap via Sportrac.

      L.Kuechly, CAR Similarity Score: 89.23% $12,360,313
      D.Trevathan, CHI Similarity Score: 81.79% $7,000,000

      Now Kwon was a 4th rounder and currently makes 1.97M for the 2018 season

      He won’t make as Much as Kuechly who makes the following:
      2017 Contract details by year 25 $7,763,324
      2018 Contract details by year 26 $8,100,059
      POTENTIAL OUT: 2019, 4 YR, $42,863,383
      2019 Contract details by year 27 $10,400,059
      2020 Contract details by year 28 $10,700,059
      2021 Contract details by year 29 $11,095,059
      2022 UFA

      I would expect a 4-5 year deal (4 years guaranteed 30.5M- 43.5M) with escalators similar to this! It shows a commitment on the Bucs side and with the escalators it shows Kwon that he is a vital member of the team. And allows the Bucs some salary flexibility in the future.
      1 – 4.5M-5M
      2 – 7-7.5M
      3 – 9-9.5MM
      4 – 10M

      5 – 11.5M

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      • Anonymous

        Inactive
        Post count: 778

        Lavonte (a far superior player at their respective points in their career) got a 5/50

        Lavonte David signed a 5 year, $50,250,000 contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including $25,556,418 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $10,050,000. In 2018, David will earn a base salary of $8,750,000, while carrying a cap hit of $8,750,000.

        There is inflation each year in new contracts, but I don’t think Kwon should get anything close to that unless he shows some real progress this year.

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    • SO CAL BUC FAN

      Participant
      Post count: 221

      @Shastada
      Lavonte (a far superior player at their respective points in their career) got a 5/50

      Lavonte David signed a 5 year, $50,250,000 contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, including $25,556,418 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $10,050,000. In 2018, David will earn a base salary of $8,750,000, while carrying a cap hit of $8,750,000.

      There is inflation each year in new contracts, but I don’t think Kwon should get anything close to that unless he shows some real progress this year.

      Which is inline with my proposed 4 year 30.5-43.5 contract above with an 5th year option at 11.5M including a 5M inflation increase and if he continues to grow you accept the option!…

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    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6453

      Thanks @The Anti-java .

      He may very well be looking at a new primary responsibility this year as well as next. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Kwon at WILB with a SILB next to him 2-gapping and filling.

      I’m hopeful that he can improve in his Zone responsibilities (as players mature and understand concepts this often takes place). But I’m not so sure that he will ever break the overpursue/lack of discipline against misdirection set dressing in front of him. I think that is likely his football DNA.

      Agreed @Shastada .

      Kwon is not nearly the player that LVD is. LVD is Ronde-level underapprecoated. It’s an embarrassment for the league in my opinion.

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    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 6698

      David had a very good year last year, and his career overall has been very good (or as you put it under-rated.)

      BUT (and maybe this isn’t his fault)

      his time under Lovie was pretty bad… the zone scheme certainly didn’t help him.

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    • Alldaway 2.0

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      Post count: 4394

      Kwon is basically a NFL all pro but entered the league early. Most prospect his age entering the league as ROOKIES.

      Kwon is going to improve dramatically the next few years.

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    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 1309

      Is this the same Kwon Alexander that went to the pro bowl?

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    • Easythe great

      Participant
      Post count: 368

      I tell you what, if the Bucs trade down and Roquan Smith is still available I’d draft him to be our future MLB.

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    • JC5100

      Participant
      Post count: 2978

      He’s not basically an all pro. He can track ball carriers but he sucks at filling his gap and sucks even more in zone. The rookie in Detroit is already better.

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    • Chyno

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      Post count: 50

      Same guys crying “I wouldn’t be mad if we let him walk if it’s more than $$$ a year”, will be the same guys crying “why can’t the Bucs ever he anyone good?” or “no one good ever comes to Tampa”.

      Yes, there are flaws that come with every player. Not every player on the roster will be Hall of Fame caliber. Y’all seem to nitpick every damn thing about anyone that remotely has talent on this team. If it was up to you guys, anyone decent on this team would be let go. Then we have the never ending cycle of a roster that lacks talent in every spot on the depth chart. That’s been our biggest problem the past decade plus.

      Does Kwon miss tackles? Yes, but what defensive player doesn’t? Does he take bad angles in his pursuit? Yes, but who doesn’t? Does he play overly aggressive and lose gap intergrity? Yes he does. But every thing y’all pointing out about Kwon the majority of LBs make the same mistakes, and have the same flaws. Maybe not consistently but every player has lapses.

      You can’t sit here and tell me that Kwon is not an above average MLB when you compare him to other 43 MLBs in the league. This kid is a tackling machine that’ll get to the ball. He’s locked in for 100+ tackles per year easy if he’s healthy with no suspensions. Having him on the field with Lavonte is so beneficial for our god awful defense.

      That’s been one of the biggest problems with the Bucs organization. Lack of home grown talent. We draft guys and don’t develop them properly and let him walk. Then they find success elsewhere and then a bunch of you come on the forums and cry about it.

      Former Bucs player Mark Barron gets shipped off to the Rams. They use him as a hybrid LB and now he’s looking like a half decent player. He’s making $9 mill a year now. So are you telling me that Kwon isn’t just as good, if not better than Barron? Pay that man. All these “if it’s north of $7.5 mill I’m letting him walk”. With cap growing and salaries going up for every starting player we’ll be able to afford him, and everyone else that’s due for a contract.

      When you have good players that you draft and develop, you keep them. Last I checked, there’s only one belichick in the league. Not all coaches and teams can draft a player. Develop them and ship them off without missing a step. We already have enough holes on the team, and a lack of overall talent. Let’s not let a couple mill deter us from keeping a player that’s actually been productive for us since day 1. He’s easily a top 15-20 ILB in the NFL. In his draft class alone he’s outplayed the majority if not all of them besides Kendricks from Minnesota.

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    • BucsWin31

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      Post count: 458

      Chyno
      Mar 9, 18 at 11:05 am #1066103
      Same guys crying “I wouldn’t be mad if we let him walk if it’s more than $$$ a year”, will be the same guys crying “why can’t the Bucs ever he anyone good?” or “no one good ever comes to Tampa”.

      /thread

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    • JC5100

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      Post count: 2978

      When you have the #32 defense then everyone should be nit picked. Then you’re talking about giving him a $50M extension, so yea every part of his game should be scrutinized.

      For the Bucs to get good again tough decisions have to get made, feelings have to get hurt. Moving on from McCoy is a real discussion. Beckwith at Mike and Alexander perhaps being traded is a real discussion.

      Saying cut Ayers and blaming everything on Baker and Hargreaves is easy but it doesn’t explain everything.

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    • Detrimental

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      Post count: 1543

      I actually agree with you for once.

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    • Pennywise

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      Post count: 9854

      I wouldn’t break the bank for kwon,he is a tackling machine,but also misses plenty of tackles,and gets caught out of position

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    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6453

      This is turning into a bit of a frustrating thread to read.

      What I’m seeing with the evals of Kwon in this thread is this very abstract sort of “destroy all nuance in order to make it impossible to distinguish play.” It’s not helpful. Making the Pro Bowl is a notoriously bad metric to evaluate a football player. People voting Kwon in as an alternate have 0 idea of his tackling efficiency or his Zone coverage grade. They probably know fast MLB with red hair who makes play, sometimes fills up stat sheets with a big tackling number, and had a great story a few years back when someone precious to him perished.

      It’s also not helpful to talk about “everyone takes poor pursuit angles, overpursues, gets lost in Zone, misses tackles, and gets window-dressinged out of plays.” The question is frequency, impact on defense, and how that relates to the best 4-3 MLBs in the league (and what they earn).

      That means things like tape, advanced metrics and PFF grades.

      For instance:

      Bobby Wagner – 96.7
      Luke Kuechly – 93.9
      Sean Lee – 88.9

      The first two guys are Elite ranked and 1 and 3 in the rankings. The last guy is High Quality and ranked 7.

      Compare to Kwon:

      68.0 grade which is Below Average and # 48 in the league. Couple that with availability issues this year and watching the tape and you come away with the inescapable fact that Kwon did not have a good year last year (and throw in the Buffalo game where he was as causal for that loss as Hump and Justin Evans if not more…just a slew of harming plays where he was specifically targeted or responsible).

      So those top two guys are 10 millish guys (like LVD). So the question remains, where do we slot Kwon contract-wise. I very much want to retain him, but his production, reliability, efficiency and availability makes me ball COMPLETELY at allocating elite MLB money (10 mil like SR was quoting) there. So again, 7.5 with some wiggle room upwards.

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    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6453

      So a quick addendum.

      If Kwon takes the next step through the first half of next year (is available all 8 games and plays efficiently in the run game, disciplined/aware in coverage, makes guys around him better, and continues – as he has been – to make plays), then I’ll be all for those numbers inflating to upwards of 9.5ish mil (given age, play, intangibles, and upward trajectory).

      But if his play/availability is the same, then I’m staying with that 7.5ish number.

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    • Detrimental

      Participant
      Post count: 1543

      That’s fair. He’s a good player and at 7.5 mil that price tag is justifiable.

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    • Soul Bro

      Participant
      Post count: 320

      “The Bucs still have to pay tight end Cameron Brate, an exclusive rights free agent in 2018 and an unrestricted free agent in 2019. Pro Bowl linebacker Kwon Alexander will also become an unrestricted free agent in 2019 and is looking for $13 million annually, according to a source. Then there’s center/guard Ali Marpet and left tackle Donovan Smith, who will be unrestricted free agents in 2019. It will take some tricky maneuvering by Bucs cap guru Mike Greenberg to make this all work.”

      http://www.espn.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/20244/buccaneers-reward-durable-and-productive-mike-evans-with-new-deal

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    • CyberDilemma

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      Post count: 404

      Soul Bro
      Mar 9, 18 at 8:39 pm #1066284

      Pro Bowl linebacker Kwon Alexander will also become an unrestricted free agent in 2019 and is looking for $13 million annually, according to a source.

      The question is what do you do with Beckwith? He might actually have more upside than Kwon. It would be a major waste to tie up $13mil/yr on Kwon and only use Beckwith as a SLB. To be honest, when Kwon came back from injury last season, he was part of the problem not part of the solution. Often out of place. Whiffing on tackles. MLB play actually dipped when Beckwith was out and Kwon was back in. Granted he did seem to come back to form towards the trail end of the season. He is the QB and heart and soul of the defense but would the Bucs be better served trading him while his stock is high or risk losing him in another year if the Bucs balk at his lofty demands?

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    • Nobody

      Participant
      Post count: 6453

      13 million?

      Until this gets sourced squared I find this ESPN report not remotely credible.

      I mean I suppose this could be an agent just throwing nonsense out there to (a) inflate the MLB market and (b) attempt to establish a (utterly ridiculous and beyond comprehension) starting point for negotiations.

      But I also find both of those hard to believe. If Kuechly and Wagner are 11-12 mil range, then someone like Kwon’s absolute ceiling (with inflation) would be 9; lower-middle of next tier + youth at a non-premium position.

      Again, I’m sticking at 7.5ish. I need to see much, much more through 8 next year to feel like sinking 9 M into the MLB spot is worthwhile when we have a first year player (who was coming off major injury) who filled in more than admirably at that position.

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