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    • SwarmingDefense

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      Post count: 231

      For years some posters on this board have said Licht’s draft were trash and that he needed to leave.

      They posted their own analysis and all the moves that should have been made to optimize this team and get us back on a winning track.

      And year after year they claimed victory as the Bucs piled up losses. They were obviously better part-time-arm-chair GMs than the idiot that is JL.

      They relied on advance analytics and wizard scores to support their narratives. And if the Bucs’ draft picks proved them wrong, they waffled and made excuses.

      I find it ironic that the Mecca of advanced “Billy Beane” metrics points to JL as one of the best drafters in the last 4 years.

      Seems weird that none of our red board “draft pros” didn’t post this article.

      https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

    • Alldaway 2.0

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      Post count: 4678

      The draft is viewed differently by each team.

      The Patriots draft players primarily for niches on defense/STs. On one hand it is true the Patriots haven’t hit on many blue chip players in a long time. But on the other hand they have been competitive year to year.

      Ravens and Steelers don’t always draft blue chip players and it is hard to do so when drafting so low year to year.

      So, drafting players that fit systems or take in coaching IS important.

      Seahawks do the same thing despite not having a great draft record.

      Having good drafts is important to help salary cap. But coaching up drafted players, free agents, and undrafted free agents is more important.

      Arians has been explicit about this the last two years as an another example. If a player responds to coaching and shows improvement that is what you are looking for.

      Technically if you are a top 40 player on any NFL team by definition you are talented. But can you respond to coaching?

      Build the trenches!

      • BuccaNOLEer

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        Post count: 972

        There’s a big reason why Don Shula couldn’t get over the hump late in his career and always would get 9-10 wins and a first round playoff exit…. because winning 9-10 games routinely doesn’t get you top draft picks.

        Although Shula as a GM wasn’t anywhere near as brilliant as what Shula as a coach was.

    • ISLAND BUCS

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      Post count: 3027

      One can look at each player separately and even Bruce Arians and Todd Bpwles,

      and in one way or another Jason Licht played a part in them coming to the Bucs,

      except for Mike Evans and Lavonte David.

      it could be that David is Licht’s favorite player.

      Remain intimately at the heart of experience.

      • FireLicht2020

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        Post count: 6552

        Lookie lookie here…

        I’ve seen a ghost

    • seekpar

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      Post count: 1035

      Although the article paints the Bucs/Licht in a very positive light for the past 4 drafts, it also mentions that Licht’s first 3 drafts ranked 29th out of 32. One might compare Licht’s performance to a rookie player who couldn’t get on the field for his first three years in the league, but is now getting more playing time and contributing.

      • SwarmingDefense

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        Post count: 231

        I think a better metaphor is a player that takes 3 years to adjust and then becomes an all-pro/pro bowler. Three years to become among the top people at your job isn’t too shabby.

        I don’t think anyone would have a problem with that.

    • Biggs3535

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      Post count: 6372

      Seems weird that none of our red board “draft pros” didn’t post this article.

      https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

      Great article. I would have posted had I seen it.

      I think it’s great PFF and others finally adapted some of baseballs analytics and applied them to the draft. Like seekpar said above, the article shows the highlights and lowlights of Licht’s draft resume. This comment is interesting because of the lack of first rounders mentioned:

      Of their 29 draft selections since 2017, eight land in the 90th percentile of outcomes: Chris Godwin, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield Jr., Carlton Davis, Jordan Whitehead, Scotty Miller, Mike Edwards and Tristan Wirfs. That’s more than any other team. And most notably, Miller is the only pick among these who came late in the draft.

      Of the four drafts, Tristan Wirfs is the only first rounder on the list. Howard and Vea don’t qualify because of injuries and White doesn’t because he’s been awful in coverage.

      The article does error in not mentioning Justin Evans as 2nd round bust, along with MJ Stewart, in that four-year timeframe. But only two busts in four years isn’t bad – which is why the Bucs are atop that particular list.

      One last note: it’s hilarious how much most Buccaneer fans, and the publisher of this website, discounted PFF’s grades/ranking whenever the Buccaneers and their players sucked. Now that they don’t suck and actually have good players, PFF magically knows what it’s talking about. Hell, the few times I’m bored enough to read one of Reynolds articles, he cites PFF all of the time now. Hilarious.

      • SwarmingDefense

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        Post count: 231

        I think Devin White isn’t mention because 90th percentile of outcome from the 5th overall pick in 2 seasons would probably be all pro numbers.

        Finding top starters in later rounds is tough, I hope we continue to do well in that aspect.

        Honestly I believe so Scotty Miller can be a starter. Absolute steal where we got him.

      • SwarmingDefense

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        Post count: 231

        I’m not in love with the PFF positional rankings at time. I think they leave gaps that can’t be quantified.

        I would bet Cappa’s numbers are up this year, that’s less to do with him and more to do with playing next to a solid player like Wirfs

      • SwarmingDefense

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        Post count: 231

        If my memory serves correctly. McCoy and Suh have relatively similar PFF numbers for their careers.

        I would take Suh 100 times out of 100. The behavior of leaders rubs off on others. His killer instinct was a welcomed addition to this team. Way better than the soft apologetic way of McCoy.

    • Hockey Duckie

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      Post count: 1491

      If the team didn’t land Brady, then would the Bucs garner so much notoriety? I don’t think so.

      When GM Licht actually addresses a starting position, then it pays off, usually. In 2015, the Bucs drafted LT Smith and RG Marpet because GM Licht was terrible in personnel for 2014 (technically, it was Lovie Smith who was in charge of the 53-man roster). We had a great run game in 2015. When LG Mankins retired, Licht didn’t address the starting RG position in 2016 because he gambled on Pamphile after he discovered FA Sweezy had back problems before the draft. In 2017, Licht still didn’t address the starting LG position. In 2018, Licht address the starting RG position with late rounder OT Cappa. Cappa was red-shirted because he just wasn’t ready. 2019, we didn’t address the OLine. 2020, we landed RT Wirfs because we moved on from RT Dotson.

      PFF is a snapshot of the four years, but it is missing a tremendous amount of information.

      2017
      3rd Rd WR Godwin: Godwin was sheltered behind Evans and Djax. Also, he had great coaching. Under Koetter, we had a plethora of receivers rising above their draft stations. TE Brate and WR Humphries were undrafted free agent that have flourished.

      Unlucky: OJ Howard, LB Beckwith and S Evans due to injuries.

      I liked the 2017 class until consistent injuries kept recurring. It was also the year that Koetter transformed the offense from a basic traditional offense to a vertical offense. This was huge! Why? Because Koetter had a feeling that Licht wouldn’t address the OLine. Koetter can mask pass blocking with chipping from an RB, TE, or WR. Koetter couldn’t mask run blocking because you need talent for that.

      It’s because of Koetter than made Tampa a very likely place for Brady.

      2018
      We got a payday here by trading down from 7th to 12th and picking up two second round picks, 53 and 56. Why did we trade down? Because we lost out on LG Quenton Nelson. This is an important fact because we had a gaping hole at starting RG and Nelson would have filled it.

      12. DT Vea
      38. RB Rojo
      53. slot CB MJ Stewart
      63. CB Davis
      94. OT Cappa
      117. S Whitehead

      With Rd 1 and Rd 2 players, you expect to get starters. With that criteria for 2018, we failed with RB Rojo and CB Stewart. In fact, we drafted a run only RB for a vertical offense? That doesn’t make sense. We traded down from 56 to 63. We got lucky in landing Davis at 63! I was wondering what we were doing drafting Stewart ahead of Davis because we needed to start grooming an outside CB due to old man Grimes. In 2017, we had slot CB McClain, but Licht wanted to get younger? Our secondary got freaking wrecked! Again, we got freaking lucky to land Davis as we passed him up twice at 53 and 56!

      Cappa would end up being a RG for us, but that’s a project OT! Remember, we were all set to draft LG Nelson at 7th overall, but we waited for the bottom of the 3rd round to address a starting RG position?! Cappa was worse than Benenoch and Benenoch was worse than a turnstile.

      GM Licht did not address a starting position with 4 picks in the first two rounds. That’s an epic fail as our offense was exposed after the third game. Both Fitz and Winston were seeing ghosts all season long.

      Licht cost the team the 2018 season offensively.


      Licht gets lucky in the draft as well as relies on injured players dropping.

        Beckwith dropped due to injury.
        Davis was drafted AFTER Stewart.
        Dean was drafted AFTER SMB.
        AWJ dropped due to injury.

      Can you imagine if Licht didn’t draft AWJ and decided to draft a RB instead in the 2nd round? Welp, that’s what Licht did in 2018 by neglecting to draft a starting RG in the top two rounds. LoL

      Yet, this article is only about drafting and doesn’t have connections to the salary cap.

      Of their 29 draft selections since 2017, eight land in the 90th percentile of outcomes: Chris Godwin, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield Jr., Carlton Davis, Jordan Whitehead, Scotty Miller, Mike Edwards and Tristan Wirfs. That’s more than any other team. And most notably, Miller is the only pick among these who came late in the draft.

      Additionally, they had only one notable bust over the same time frame: M.J. Stewart in the second round in 2017. Drafting valuable positions and going on a lucky run in terms of draft success is exactly how Super Bowl teams are built around the quarterback.

      This excerpt from PFF reveals we had only one trench player denoted. ONE. We won the Super Bowl because we dominated KC on both sides of the trench! With so many video breakdowns showing the pass rush got to Mahomes so soon that he couldn’t see a route breaking open. Our pass blocking did well enough to buy Brady time, considering that KC had only one true pass rusher. We had Barrett, JPP, Suh, Vea, and Gholston. Barrett, JPP, and Suh are all FA’s. Vea was drafted in 2018 for Mike Smith’s defense (Koetter regime). Gholston was drafted before Licht.

      We are hitting on positional values in the last four drafts because the trenches were addressed in other means, including a QB that improves the OLine because of quick reads or gets rid of the ball sooner.

      Anyhow, cap crunching time now. Licht loves LT Smith and C Jensen. Smith is owed $14.25 mil next year. Jensen is owed $10 mil next year.

      2020 OLine PFF rating, Bucs Regular season

        LT Smith: 72.1 PFF rating; 6 sacks allowed, 11 penalties
        LG Marpet: 86.7 PFF rating; 0 sacks allowed, 3 penalties
        C Jensen: 64.9 PFF rating; 4 sacks allowed, 4 penalties
        RG Cappa: 69.0 PFF rating; 0 sacks allowed, 2 penalties
        RT Wirfs: 82.2 PFF rating; 1 sacks allowed, 3 penalties (rookie)

      This is how terrible an evaluator Licht is to want to keep both Smith and Jensen. Don’t we want improvements at LT and C? At least replace C Jensen and save $10 mil! That way we can keep a WR Godwin, OLB Barrett, or DT Suh.

      • buc_boi

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        Post count: 3360

        Repetitive….

        Maybe if you say the same fake bullshit in every single topic you post in, it’ll become true.

      • buc_boi

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        Post count: 3360

        HK wrote

        “Licht cost the team the 2018 season offensively.”

        Lol, or maybe it was the jackass rapist that was suspended and benched half the season… but you’re right, it’s the GMs fault.

        Agenda away, bubba

      • buc_boi

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        Post count: 3360

        HD wrote

        “Anyhow, cap crunching time now. Licht loves LT Smith and C Jensen. Smith is owed $14.25 mil next year. Jensen is owed $10 mil next year.”

        What you know about the salary cap is pure comedy, clearly.

        I’d give all that ‘higher education’ crap a rest if I were you, you’re embarrassing yourself at this point.

    • SwarmingDefense

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      Post count: 231

      5 out of 6 starters in the 2018 draft. That’s pretty lucky of Licht.

      But you are right our OL needs to be retooled lol.

      The hate for Licht is strong with so many bucs posters.

      He’s not perfect but he has put together a pretty decent roster.

      Lost our starting 2 safeties and a starting guard deep in the playoff and still held it together.

      Are crappy oline managed to block One of the best DLineman in the game. Jones is literally three times the size of Stinnie.

      People were mad we traded up for Wirfs and mad we missed out on Delpit. 2 more picks that look to be pretty lucky by Jason Licht.

    • Biggs3535

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      Post count: 6372

      I think Devin White isn’t mention because 90th percentile of outcome from the 5th overall pick in 2 seasons would probably be all pro numbers.

      Yes, him not being an All-Pro is a factor. Obviously, he would be in that percentile if he was an All Pro – but he’s not. That was one of the negatives to drafting a LB with a top-5 pick. It’s tough to justify unless that LB’er is a perennial All-Pro. His very poor play in coverage is also a factor him not being in the 90th percentile – and not being an All-Pro.

      I would bet Cappa’s numbers are up this year, that’s less to do with him and more to do with playing next to a solid player like Wirfs

      Attributing one player’s performance/grade to another player isn’t a good thing to do. Cappa’s grade went up slightly (62 to 67) from last year. But what about his 2018 grade of 40? Which player playing beside him made that grade go up to 62 in 2019? Cappa deserves credit for improving every season, regardless of who was playing next to him.

      Flip it the other way. Was Wirfs really, really good because he played next to Alex Cappa? No, Wirfs is just really, really good.

      • SwarmingDefense

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        Post count: 231

        My point was that playing next to someone like Dotson can negatively impact a players score. especially since a OL have to work together more than any other position.

        I would be interested to see who we could’ve picked instead of Devin white that is in the 90th percentile. That was actually valued around that pick

    • Bucman

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      Post count: 1195

      His 2016 draft would get a lot of GMs canned. It was beyond bad.

      Hes gotten a lot better after that and finally has a coach who doesnt suck

    • Natural Selection

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      Post count: 116

      Licht has improved significantly in both drafting and assessing/signing pro personnel. If you want to share some of that credit for recent success, I bet Jason would agree. Though that should require sharing more blame for his struggles learning on the job. He probably got more rope than many in similar positions, but I don’t see how anyone can argue it hasn’t paid off as of today.

    • Alldaway 2.0

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      Post count: 4678

      I do not think highly of Licht’s draft prowess.

      But when he has the right coaches to help him make draft choices it turns out very, very good. Licht needs a coaching staff that KNOWS what they want from players from the draft.

      Without that guidance Licht isn’t any better than any other average GM in the league. Hopefully what the coaching staff is teaching him is rubbing off on him.

      A lot of times Licht will focus too much on scheme fit and forget about overall talent level and value from the draft.

      Build the trenches!

      • SwarmingDefense

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        Lol DK and the staff really helped Licht out in that 2018 draft. Too bad they were asked to leave after that year.

      • SwarmingDefense

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        Lol DK and the staff really helped Licht out in that 2018 draft. Too bad they were asked to leave after that year.

    • Biggs3535

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      Post count: 6372

      My point was that playing next to someone like Dotson can negatively impact a players score. especially since a OL have to work together more than any other position.

      I understood your point. My point is, frankly, your point is a bad point. Here are Cappa’s grades:

      2018 next to Dotson: 40.1
      2019 next to Dotson: 62.7 – a 56.4% improvement from the previous season
      2020 next to Wirfs: 67.7 – a 6.4% improvement from the previous season

      Using your logic, 2019 Dotson made a vastly bigger improvement for Cappa than 2020 Wirfs did. Given this information, would you agree that giving a certain OL player credit for another OL player’s performance may not be the best idea?

      • BucsSavant

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        Post count: 204

        He won’t, because these people live and die by their numbers. They don’t know the game well enough to administer a proper eye test.

    • leeroybuc93

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      Post count: 1378

      To sum much of this thread up:

      GM wins Superbowl. Dumb dumbs complain about draft 6 years ago. The end.

    • BuccaNOLEer

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      Post count: 972

      The past four drafts have given us some serious talent. The following players were in those drafts and contributed to our Super Bowl run:

      OJ Howard (talented player but can’t stay healthy)
      Chris Godwin (star receiver in a loaded receiving corps)
      Vita Vea (Major block in Tampa’s D-Line wall)
      Ronald Jones (solid runner, lousy pass catcher and blocker)
      Carlton Davis (usually covers #1 receiver)
      Alex Cappa (solid interior O-Lineman who has vastly improved from a raw and unpolished rookie)
      Jordan Whitehead (Solid hitter at strong safety)
      Devin White (Amazing linebacker who can cover and wreaks havoc in offensive backfields)
      Jamel Dean (solid cover corner)
      Sean Murphy-Bunting (nickel corner who makes game changing picks)
      Mike Edwards (backup safety who is always around the ball)
      Scotty Miller (speedy receiver who has thrived with Brady throwing him the ball)
      Tristan Wirfs (freakish athlete who will be an anchor at RT for years to come)
      Antoine Winfield (ball hawking safety…. nuff said….. PEACE!!!!)
      Tyler Davis (another speedy slot receiver in the mold of Miller)

    • Greattimes

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      Bump to get rid of advertising post.

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