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Licht sucking at Compensatory Formula

This topic contains 56 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by  CyberDilemma May. 19, 2019 at 11:43 pm.

Viewing 12 posts - 46 through 57 (of 57 total)
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  • #1186789

    Buc on the Move
    Participant

    Could this also be related to the way the Bucs structure contracts, specifically that we make contracts that we don’t really expect players to finish, thus we don’t see many qualifying FAs?

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    #1186825

    Naismith
    Participant

    Could this also be related to the way the Bucs structure contracts, specifically that we make contracts that we don’t really expect players to finish, thus we don’t see many qualifying FAs?

    Most players don’t hit free agency twice and command big contracts, so players signed to a second contract usually aren’t ones that are going to impact the compensatory formula again. The players that impact the comp formula are typically players that are ending their first contracts.

    Regardless, though, the Bucs went into this offseason knowing they would have a few players sign big deals that would qualify and still decided it wasn’t something they should prioritize.

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    #1186831

    tog
    Participant

    The one thing I would add to Naismith’s point is that teams also sign FA players to 1 year deals and trade late round picks for veterans on the end of their deals.

    That’s something the Patriots have done well for a while. The downside is capped (a late round pick and the player is cut) and the upside is production and a new deal or compensatory pick in the 3-7 range.

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    #1186840

    Naismith
    Participant

    The one thing I would add to Naismith’s point is that teams also sign FA players to 1 year deals and trade late round picks for veterans on the end of their deals.

    That’s something the Patriots have done well for a while. The downside is capped (a late round pick and the player is cut) and the upside is production and a new deal or compensatory pick in the 3-7 range.

    Yeah, the Bucs signings this offseason would seem to indicate an interest in setting up for future comp picks had they given any reason to believe they cared about them. Giving guys like Barrett or Perriman one year deals sets them up to earn bigger contracts that could return picks to the Bucs if they don’t bring them back.

    I especially think you should buy low on guys that have limited time left in their rookie deals, that haven’t worked out for whatever reason. The Chiefs just traded a conditional sixth for Darron Lee and he has one year left on his deal. If it doesn’t work out, they’re out a sixth (or lower, depending on conditions). If he plays well, great for them in 2019 and likely gets them a better 2021 pick than they gave up to give him a trial season.

    I first became interested in the compensatory picks (and the pick swaps, which is another thing good franchises do) after the Bucs traded Talib and 7th for a 4th and the Patriots ended up getting a third back when Talib left. They allowed Talib to leave and got a third round pick and replaced him with Revis, who the Bucs just cut, and then let him leave a year later and got another third round pick. It is crazy to not prioritize a system that allows this competitive advantage.

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    #1186848

    tog
    Participant

    The one thing I would add to Naismith’s point is that teams also sign FA players to 1 year deals and trade late round picks for veterans on the end of their deals.

    That’s something the Patriots have done well for a while. The downside is capped (a late round pick and the player is cut) and the upside is production and a new deal or compensatory pick in the 3-7 range.

    Yeah, the Bucs signings this offseason would seem to indicate an interest in setting up for future comp picks had they given any reason to believe they cared about them. Giving guys like Barrett or Perriman one year deals sets them up to earn bigger contracts that could return picks to the Bucs if they don’t bring them back.

    I especially think you should buy low on guys that have limited time left in their rookie deals, that haven’t worked out for whatever reason. The Chiefs just traded a conditional sixth for Darron Lee and he has one year left on his deal. If it doesn’t work out, they’re out a sixth (or lower, depending on conditions). If he plays well, great for them in 2019 and likely gets them a better 2021 pick than they gave up to give him a trial season.

    I first became interested in the compensatory picks (and the pick swaps, which is another thing good franchises do) after the Bucs traded Talib and 7th for a 4th and the Patriots ended up getting a third back when Talib left. They allowed Talib to leave and got a third round pick and replaced him with Revis, who the Bucs just cut, and then let him leave a year later and got another third round pick. It is crazy to not prioritize a system that allows this competitive advantage.

    Huh – I wasn’t even aware (or had forgotten) that the Pats got a 3rd for Talib… Man, how great teams stay great and bad teams stay trash! Perfect example right there. Going to use that one going forward for sure.

    So the Pats got a 3rd round pick for Talib and a 3rd for Revis and the Bucs netted… a 4th (minus a 7th).

    And while I agree it may appear the Bucs are setting themselves up for future compensatory picks given the 1 year deals that have been signed, the fact that the Bucs threw away a 3rd and 4th compensatory pick tells me that will not happen.

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    #1186868

    Havok904
    Participant

    No other team had a the high comp picks the Bucs had and came away with nothing. A number of teams would not have received comp picks (not enough UDFAs left) or would have only received a 6th or 7th.

    But the Bucs were the only team with a premium comp pick to walk away with no 3rd or 4th. That’s criminally incompetent.
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    @tog

    Maybe I misread the chart, but it appears that the Bucs signed FAs to fill holes in their roster.

    Is the problem the Bucs didn’t trade those players like Kwon before they became UFAs for draft picks? Or is it by signing FAs nullified any chance of receiving comp picks ?

    Please explain.

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    #1186874

    Naismith
    Participant

    No other team had a the high comp picks the Bucs had and came away with nothing. A number of teams would not have received comp picks (not enough UDFAs left) or would have only received a 6th or 7th.

    But the Bucs were the only team with a premium comp pick to walk away with no 3rd or 4th. That’s criminally incompetent.

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    @tog

    Maybe I misread the chart, but it appears that the Bucs signed FAs to fill holes in their roster.

    Is the problem the Bucs didn’t trade those players like Kwon before they became UFAs for draft picks? Or is it by signing FAs nullified any chance of receiving comp picks ?

    Please explain.

    It’s that signing players nullified comp picks. If they signed one less qualifying free agent like, say, Bradley Pinion, they would get a third round pick next year. If they signed two less qualifying free agents, they would get a third and fourth next year.

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    #1186879

    Havok904
    Participant

    @naismith

    Thanks for the explanation!!!

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    #1186882

    tog
    Participant

    No other team had a the high comp picks the Bucs had and came away with nothing. A number of teams would not have received comp picks (not enough UDFAs left) or would have only received a 6th or 7th.

    But the Bucs were the only team with a premium comp pick to walk away with no 3rd or 4th. That’s criminally incompetent.

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    tog

    Maybe I misread the chart, but it appears that the Bucs signed FAs to fill holes in their roster.

    Is the problem the Bucs didn’t trade those players like Kwon before they became UFAs for draft picks? Or is it by signing FAs nullified any chance of receiving comp picks ?

    Please explain.

    It’s that signing players nullified comp picks. If they signed one less qualifying free agent like, say, Bradley Pinion, they would get a third round pick next year. If they signed two less qualifying free agents, they would get a third and fourth next year.

    This. And it’s not that they can’t sign players – you just need to sign players who don’t qualify (such as released or non-tendered players) or wait until the May 15th.

    There’s also ways to get out – such as if the Bucs cut a couple of the qualifying players (Pinion, Barrett, Perrimann, Bucannon). I don’t know when they’d need to be cut by. And I think Bucannon is the only player without guaranteed money?

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    #1186884

    Havok904
    Participant

    @tog

    Thanks for the explanation!

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    #1187020

    The Freeman
    Participant

    Perriman = $4M fully guaranteed

    Pinion = $3.6M guaranteed (2019 salary + 2019 roster bonus + $1M of 2020 salary)

    Barrett = $3M (roster bonus) guaranteed

    Bucannon = $1.45M (roster bonus) guaranteed for spotrac, none for overthecap.

    Watford = $565K guaranteed

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    #1187104

    CyberDilemma
    Participant

    So the Pats got a 3rd round pick for Talib and a 3rd for Revis and the Bucs netted… a 4th (minus a 7th).

    Actually, when you consider that Revis cost the Bucs a 1st and a 4th, trading Talib and releasing Revis ended up costing the Bucs a 1st and a 7th and netted them nothing.

     

     

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