12. Buccaneers (HC Bruce Arians)
4th Down Aggressiveness: 18th
Pass Rate on Early Downs: 7th
Pass Rate While Trailing: 4th
Play-Action Rate: 30th
Downfield Pass Rate: 1st
Middle of the Field Pass Rate: 15th
Pre-Snap Motion Percentage: 11st
Outside Run Rate: 30th
Shotgun Run Rate: 30th
Offensive Pace: 14th
It will be interesting to see how this offensive scheme changes with Tom Brady replacing Jameis Winston, but if it’s anything like last year’s offense, sign me all the way up. Arians’ passing offense is as aggressive as it gets, finishing first in downfield pass rate with top-seven rankings in both pass rate on early downs (7th) and while trailing (4th). The rest of the offense needs some work, however. Arians wasn’t aggressive enough on fourth downs (18th), didn’t incorporate play action enough (30th), and essentially punted on giving his running backs chances to find space. The Bucs’ 30th-ranked offense in both outside run rate and shotgun run rate were enough for me to keep them out of Tier 2 even though the aerial passing attack is something you love to see.
I don’t think we’ll be #1 in downfield passing, but we’ll be top-5 in middle of the field. Now, because Brady is very accurate, then he can get receivers in stride to balloon YAC. That’s where Brady makes our receivers far more dangerous as most of them can take it to the house if caught in stride.
Another reason why we won’t be #1 in downfield passing is because Brady doesn’t want to take a lot of sacks. Brady took 27 sacks to Winston’s 47 sacks last year. If we can get the same net yards of throwing deep vs throwing intermediate in stride with a huge YAC, then does it matter how we get the yards?
#1 in downfield passing and #15 in middle of the field passing kinda shows a TD to checkdown mentality. The #30 in playaction rate means that Arians’ offense left Winston on an island on purpose… or they knew we had no competent run game. Yet, Koetter continued to run playaction regardless of how bad our run game was. LoL
#30 in running outside in all situations. According to FBO, we ran 6% at left end and 4% at right end.
This reiterates running up the gut 70% of the time. We didn’t improve our interior this off-season. Getting Wirfs means not much if our impetus of our offense was to run up the gut 70% of the time. Will we run significantly more to the outside with Wirfs now? Doubtful. But if we kick Wirfs inside, then that might make a significant difference in production as he’d be #1 OG off the draft boards.