Currently, there are 0 users and 1 guest visiting this topic.
Viewing 21 reply threads

  • Author

    Posts

    • Hockey Duckie

      Participant
      Post count: 1493

      He’s a 28-year old UFA center from New England. There’s a projection of a 3-year deal worth $18 mil, or an average of $6 mil. His previous contract averaged $3 mil for four years. I don’t know if New England will pony up for for $6 mil, considering they have to re-sign Thuney.

      Jensen is making $10 mil, but I wouldn’t mind saving $4 mil and re-uniting him with Brady. Pay less and get a better talent? Hmmm…

    • BucsSavant

      Participant
      Post count: 204

      He’s not a better talent. Jensen is a force, despite what the stat nerds tell you. Ask any offensive linemen

    • buc_boi

      Participant
      Post count: 3368

      ‘Better talent’ are you words that are definitely debatable, it’s not like your opinion is already biased before making this topic.

      But If value is your issue, what value do you put on a very good Oline?

      I say that knowing we already have all the pieces in-house for a really good oline, championship quality in fact.

      But to answer you question directly, OP, if Brady wants this move then I want this move…. otherwise seems like an unnecessary move though

      • Anonymous

        Inactive
        Post count: 113

        agree, they need better depth and another prospect or two to develope.

    • Roy

      Participant
      Post count: 4061

      Part of having a good O-line is the continuity. The Bucs have a chance to keep the continuity on this highly rated offensive line, so if it ain’t broke… The depth is lacking, so I’d like to see them add one or two guys, but not replace a starter.

      • Kermit56

        Participant
        Post count: 257

        ^^^^^^^
        This!!

      • Hockey Duckie

        Participant
        Post count: 1493

        @Kermit56 and @Roy

        Cappa got replaced by Stinnie in the playoffs because Cappa got injured. Cappa got injured in the wild card game. Stinnie played in the other three playoff games.

        This kinda makes the “chemistry” reasoning moot when we won playoff games and the Super Bowl with a backup right guard.

    • Alldaway 2.0

      Participant
      Post count: 4678

      IF the Bucs can land him for less than what they are paying Jensen it is an upgrade.

      However, I am pretty sure the Patriots are going to let Thuney walk and will try to re-sign Andrews.

      Build the trenches!

    • ISLAND BUCS

      Participant
      Post count: 3032

      Brady seems to really like Jensen.

      Remain intimately at the heart of experience.

      • Alldaway 2.0

        Participant
        Post count: 4678

        And Jensen can stay healthy while Andrews struggles with this.

        I too think that Jensen is the starting Bucs center for 2021 IMO.

        Build the trenches!

    • KyBucfan51

      Participant
      Post count: 239

      Jensen is here to stay I appreciate his fire you don’t get that with a lot of guys.

    • DEBUCSOWN

      Participant
      Post count: 2748

      You mean thoughts on messing with the chemistry of a top 5 o line?

      Pass.

      Jensen is straight bully. Him shoving people around pancaking them is a thing of art.

      Leave the starting 5 as is. Please & thank you.

      • RW

        Participant
        Post count: 302

        Jensen is the weakest of the starting Olinemen. He’s good but he also benefits by having a great player like Marpet beside him. And as Olinemen go he is overpaid for what he brings.

    • RudeGuy

      Participant
      Post count: 2226

      It’s funny how many of the issues people had on here with Jensen vanished with Winston’s departure. Now he is playing to the level of his contract and most likely these same people want to get a cheaper cut of beef to replace him. I don’t believe the Bucs are looking to replace Jensen.

      • Hockey Duckie

        Participant
        Post count: 1493

        Licht doesn’t want to mess with the OLine.

        I disagree. The problems with Jensen (and Smith) still exists. Brady is just masking their deficiencies even more.

        I also disagree with Jensen playing up to his contract. He isn’t and he hasn’t. Since he was first signed, I was critical of Jensen because I had Marpet as my standard at center. We got amazing crap in 2018, making Jensen the highest paid center in the league.

        Licht signed FA Evan Deitrich-Smith and he was easily replaced with off the street Joe Hawley. Then we moved Marpet to center and Wisnton actually had a pocket to stand up into! Marpet played 11 games at center and the OLine gave up only 20 sacks. But when Marpet and Dotson fell to injury in game 11, the next five games the OLine gave up 20 sacks (C EDS, RT Benenoch).

        To me, sticking with Jensen and his $10 mil is akin to sticking with Winston and the projected $32 mil per year contract. Instead, we got Brady at $25 mil per year. Welp, Andrews would save $4 mil.

        I would rather shift Cappa to center and draft a RG because that would save us $10 mil. Remember, AQ Shipley did an adequate job at center and that’s a center at the end of his career. Cappa doesn’t possess the athleticism to bull through the 2nd level, but his athletic trait mimics that of Jensen.

        The problem we encounter is, “Has Cappa been learning how to play center?”

        This is why I came up with Andrews as a compromise.

        Run Production, Bucs

          2018: 95.2 ypg (29th overall)
          2019: 95.1 ypg (24th)
          2020: 94.9 ypg (28th)

        Run occurrence, Mid/Guard

          2018: 65% (25th run production)
          2019: 70% (19th run production)
          2020: 62% (7th run production)

        2020 PFF grades

          LT Smith: 72.1 PFF rating, 6 sacks, 11 penalties
          LG Marpet: 86.7 PFF rating, 0 sacks, 3 penalties
          C Jensen: 64.9 PFF rating, 4 sacks, 4 penalties
          RG Cappa: 69.0 PFF rating, 0 sacks, 2 penalties
          RT Wirfs: 82.2 PFF rating, 1 sacks, 3 penalties

        The weakest link on the OLine is Jensen. Granted, this is PFF and I feel they’re subjective than objective overall, but I respect their work and it’s recorded work year after year. We run a lot up the gut and we improved vastly due to Marpet getting that hip surgery done in the off-season.

        Jensen PFF

          2017: 72.3 PFF rating, 3 sacks, 4 penalties
          2018: 56.6 PFF rating, 1 sacks, 11 penalties
          2019: 79.3 PFF rating, 1 sacks, 3 penalties
          2020: 64.9 PFF rating, 4 sacks, 4 penalties

        Here’s the odd part, the 2019 OLine wasn’t great.
        Team sacks allowed, Bucs

          2018: 41 sacks allowed
          2019: 47 sacks allowed
          2020: 22 sacks allowed

        This is why I don’t trust PFF as their 2019 recordings did not match the eye test.

        Ali Marpet PFF score at Center, Bucs

          2017: 81.5, 3 sacks allowed, 4 penalties

        When talking about Jensen, then you need scope. If Marpet is the standard and Jensen is one of the highest paid centers, then Jensen is an overpaid center for average… err near below average talent, as per PFF.

        David Andrews PFF

          2017: 84.7 pff rating, 2 sacks, 2 penalties
          2018: 73.3 pff rating, 2 sacks, 4 penalties
          2019: injured reserved
          2020: 67.7 pff rating, 2 sacks, 1 penalties

        The Bucs probably improve by signing Andrews and releasing Jensen. The gamble is if Andrews can remain healthy because Jensen has been durable. Yet, injuries are a matter of bad luck.

        Oh… did I forget to mention that Andrews centered Brady before? So if we’re not going to trust Cappa at center to save $10 mil, then maybe Andrews is a good compromise at $4 mil less. I’m surprised that’s his projection contract, 3 years for $18 mil.

      • buc_boi

        Participant
        Post count: 3368

        You’re just copy and pasting the same stats from topic to topic at this point, bud.

        We get it

      • Hockey Duckie

        Participant
        Post count: 1493

        I’m sorry if you thought that post was for you. It isn’t. It’s for the literate in football nuances only.

        Be on your way, little child. Let the adults hold competent higher level football conversations. Thanks.

      • buc_boi

        Participant
        Post count: 3368

        I’m sorry

        I’ve noticed all your down votes lately, yes. Such football acumen you possess.

        I look forward to the next topic you start saying the same damn thing.

        Maybe then the oline will be the weakness you constantly try to make it out to be? 🤞🏻

      • RW

        Participant
        Post count: 302

        Agree completely with you. Just because the team won a Superbowl doesn’t mean all the guys played well and justified their contacts.

    • Biggs3535

      Participant
      Post count: 6427

      Here’s the odd part, the 2019 OLine wasn’t great.
      Team sacks allowed, Bucs

      2018: 41 sacks allowed
      2019: 47 sacks allowed
      2020: 22 sacks allowed

      This is why I don’t trust PFF as their 2019 recordings did not match the eye test.

      Sacks isn’t just a OL metric. You’re significantly discounting the QB’s role in sacks allowed, which PFF does not. in 2019, 12 of the 47 sacks were attributed (and rightly so) to the QB. While Winston did have very good pocket presence, he would still hold on to ball far too long trying to make a play.

      • Hockey Duckie

        Participant
        Post count: 1493

        Ahhh… but this is why I shared 2018 and 2019 sacks allowed. We were a better personnel unit in 2019 as we had a below average RG as opposed to a porous RG in 2018 (both Benenoch and Cappa). Winston was QB both of those years, but we still managed to give up more sacks.

        FBO adjusted sack rate rank:

          2018: 15th (6.6%)
          2019: 22nd (7.6%)

        This is why I said Koetter’s the better OLine coach because he did more with less (no actual starting RG in 2018).

        I knew that Brady would drop the sacks down tremendously because he would throw it away than lose sack yards. Brady masks a lot of deficiencies, including sacks and playcalling.

        The question is, what happens when we don’t have Brady? This is why we need to upgrade the Oline.

    • FireLicht2020

      Participant
      Post count: 6649

      I’m all for continuity, but the line isn’t as good as y’all are making it out to be.

      Winston made then considerably worse.

      Brady makes them considerably better

      This is a slightly above average unit that got elite play from a rookie RT.

      My main fear is the super bowl hangover. I don’t see this unit as the same unit we saw play lights out down the stretch.

      Law of large numbers tells me they will regress next year, even with Brady’s elite pocket work.

      Downvote away, but there is a reason why repeats are so hard.

      • BP1

        Participant
        Post count: 1676

        It is possible the offensive line improved down the stretch due to everything finally falling into place for a team that didn’t get a camp or preseason games with a new QB. I seem to remember it being said it takes a QB almost an entire season to begin to understand BA’s offense. Then again the GOAT never ran his offense.

      • JC5100

        Participant
        Post count: 3261

        The 2002 offensive had new starters at LT, LG and RT. They played great in the playoffs. They fell back down to Earth in 2003. You have to evaluate them like you would after any other season. Jensen and Cappa could be upgraded and both are UFA in 2022.

    • DEBUCSOWN

      Participant
      Post count: 2748

      One thing I’m curious is the o line penalty #s. That seemed to drop dramatically in 2020 as well. Especially late in the year. The whole team in general honestly.

      That sure helped.

      • RW

        Participant
        Post count: 302

        You smarten up after Brady goes ballistic on you on national TV for taking so many stupid penalties.

    • buc-in-out

      Participant
      Post count: 454

      I watched some more playoff film today, and Stinnie played GREAT at RG. Much MUCH better run blocker then Cappa, wouldn’t be surprised if Stinnie beats Cappa in camp to start the season.

    • ISLAND BUCS

      Participant
      Post count: 3032

      You are right

      Stinnie played great.

      But he did get pushed around a bit. In the Super Bowl, allowed a sack, and couldn’t get any movement when the Bucs went for the TD on 4th down over right guard and failed.

      This was a really good year for Cappa.

      Though Stinnie did well, Cappa is the stronger and better player.

      The Bucs though, now, have a good reserve center and a good reserve guard.

      Both bought in this year.

      Remain intimately at the heart of experience.

    • Boid Fink

      Participant
      Post count: 1154

      You want a brute at center? Draft Creed Humphrey. Save money against the cap for four years, and he is a legit stud prospect…good technique, well coached, monstrously strong.

    • Swash

      Participant
      Post count: 181

      Ok, so in this scenario we swap a 10 million contract for a 6 million contract THIS year. But what wasn’t discussed was the flexibility and no dead money we have from Jensens contract ending next year. I think the Bucs either keep his contract on the books as is, or request he take a small pay cut for this year, OR give him a 1-2 contract extension that drastically lowers his 2021 cap hit. Signing another high priced free agent center is not the best option here.. when the player suggested isn’t a massive upgrade over the one already in place.

    • Boid Fink

      Participant
      Post count: 1154

      Creed is a rookie. Draft the guy. Depth on winning teams is crucial.

      Also, someone mentioned elite RT play from Wirfs. I agree. But Marpet is an elite guard in his own right. Cappa is substantially better from day 1 to now. And he is very tough.

      Smith and Jensen are average/mediocre types that indeed were made better by Brady. Release time and pocket awareness go a mile in making these guys look good.

    • JC5100

      Participant
      Post count: 3261

      They could just force Jensen to take a paycut. Guarantee his 2021 base salary at 6M. Nobody is paying him $10M in the open market.

    • Boid Fink

      Participant
      Post count: 1154

      But someone might pay 9 million for a Super Bowl winning center who worked with Tom Brady.

      And now you have a giant hole to plug on the line, and shuffling has to occur.

      • JC5100

        Participant
        Post count: 3261

        If someone wants to pay Jensen $9M then let him go find it. Right now it’s a buyers market for centers. Free agency is going to be flooded with them. $6M is fair for Jensen and he could risk being flat out released in the spring/summer if Creed Humphrey falls to 32.

    • buccnation

      Participant
      Post count: 1355

      Yeah hopefully Jensen restructures. He’s not worth $10 mil and I’d definitely take Andrews at $6 mil vs Jensen at $10 mil.

      Maybe a small extension that lowers his cap hit but slightly increases his guaranteed cash.

      • DEBUCSOWN

        Participant
        Post count: 2748

        Jensen is in his final year so restructuring is not possible.

        An extension is possible, however. & would help free cap space for this year.

      • buccnation

        Participant
        Post count: 1355

        Yes you’re right. Great point.

    • Diehard Astheycome

      Participant
      Post count: 499

      I get the appeal of going the draft route but I struggle with a center at 32. That’s worst than taking a RB or TE in the first. You just don’t do it. This is the year that guys are going to slide due to years off and half hearted seasons. If a Joe Tryon, Ronnie Perkins at edge or even Cosmi at Tackle is there at 32, to me, just holds a higher value.

      I also think that Jensen brings an aura like Suh did compared to McCoy. So I’d lean on the extension, lower cap hit side of this discussion. For the record ,if he could stay healthy, Landon Dickerson would be a less costly pick up to fill in at Center. He’s cut from the same cloth as Jensen, and his teammates ,coaches thought the world of him as the leader of that line.

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 113

      If Andrews accepts a backup role and paid accordingly, then why not? AND draft a C early too.

      I suspect he will be back with NE though.

Viewing 21 reply threads
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.