Monday, August 26, 2019

Trump's Unusual Polling

This topic contains 11 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  VirgilCaine Aug. 22, 2019 at 12:40 pm.

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  • #1200998

    VirgilCaine
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    It never moves

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/262694/latest-trump-job-approval-rating.aspx

    “Trump’s frequent controversies as president have done little to change public opinion about him, with his approval ratings during his first 2 ½ years in office falling into an 11-percentage-point range between 35% and 46%.

    By comparison, the average range for other elected presidents since World War II during their first 2 ½ years is 30 points. Dwight Eisenhower had the smallest range before Trump — 18 points — but with generally very strong ratings between 57% and 75%”

    “Other presidents have had approval ratings during the early part of their presidencies as low as, or lower than, Trump has had. What distinguishes Trump is the lack of very high ratings, such as those typically enjoyed during the first-year honeymoon period of a presidency, or as a result of “rally events” in which citizens show increased support for their leaders.

    The part in bold is the downside to the “us versus them” approach so it must be that the GOP thinks it can motivate its base to get out and vote more so then nearly every other voting block combined . . in the five states that matter.

    This is why people call for reform of the electoral college. A deeply unpopular/controversial 41% President can win because all he needs is to win 3-5 states.

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    #1201001

    VirgilCaine
    Participant

    and if your partisanship blinds you to the reality above, there’s this further explanation form well-respected poll aggregator 538:

    “Trump remains unpopular. The FiveThirtyEight poll tracker estimates he’s at 42.3% approval and 53.2% disapproval. The historical comparison is as bad as ever: Of the 11 polling-era presidents through 929 days in office (Gerald Ford didn’t serve this long), he’s second-worst, beating only Jimmy Carter – and his disapproval just dropped behind Carter’s once again, making him dead last on that score.”

    I get the hidden Trump voter, but that is still really bad. There’s more here

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-07/donald-trump-should-worry-about-his-disapproval-rating

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    #1201691

    VirgilCaine
    Participant

    This, from the weekend news shows:

    TRUMP LOSING SUBURBS – that usually means mostly white, college-educated women

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-losing-ground-america-s-suburbs-n1041296

    President Donald Trump is losing America’s suburbs.

    In the six national NBC/Wall Street Journal polls conducted this year, Trump’s job rating has been underwater among suburban residents — with just one exception.

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    #1201930

    VirgilCaine
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    #1201970

    VirgilCaine
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    If youre interested in this kind of stuff, 202 will be a fascinating election because it has so many unusual issues at play

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/13/politics/texas-democrats-districts-gains/index.html

    An incumbent President with a great economy should be a re-election in a landslide, but man Trump’s positive polls have seemingly plateaued and his negative grow.

    On top of that, the GOP keeps making ZERO effort to expand voters. In fact, its working to alienate more, so maybe there really are that many “white working class” in the five key state, but IF a president (not Trump, but generally) can win re-election with, essentially, just the rural parts of the country the system is arguably broken.

    On top of this you have the linked article and this from it:

    “The fast-growing metropolitan areas of Texas are moving to the front line of the battle between the two major political parties for control of the nation’s direction.

    Texas has been a linchpin of the Republican Party’s national strength for a generation. But in 2018, Democrats recorded their most significant gains in decades in the state’s largest urban centers.

    Now Texas Republicans face indications that the same recoil from President Donald Trump that has hurt the party in other diverse and well-educated metropolitan areas — from suburban Philadelphia to Orange County, California — could combine with growing racial diversity to move Texas from reliably red into a genuinely competitive state much more quickly than almost any analyst envisioned even a few years ago.

    “Trump has sped everything up by four to six years,” says Richard Murray, a University of Houston political scientist. For the Republicans, he said, “it’s a deadly combination of rapid demographic change and the immediate political dynamics.”

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    #1201971

    VirgilCaine
    Participant

    Trump could be leading the GOP to “four more years” and holding the Senate but he could also be leading them over a cliff.

    As one further example, business owners see 2020 as a referendum on Trump

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/main-street-says-trump-not-policy-is-biggest-2020-election-issue.html

    and this article raises the precise point I’ve been making:

    ““When you take President Trump out of the equation … ‘the economy and jobs’ is the No. 1 issue for small business owners and for people overall,” Wronski said.”

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    #1202196

    VirgilCaine
    Participant

    Unfair? Perhaps, but these two polls show how much so many dislike Trump

    An incumbent where people credit him/her for a good economy should be an immensely popular President

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    #1202480

    VirgilCaine
    Participant

    The disapproval numbers climb though

    President Trump’s disapproval rating has jumped to 56 percent in a Fox News survey released Wednesday, just one point shy of the record high in Fox News polling.

    The survey found a 5 percentage point increase in Trump’s disapproval from last month. The only time his disapproval rating was higher, according to Fox News, was when it reached 57 percent in October 2017.

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    #1202660

    VirgilCaine
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    Fox News … yes… Fox News Report Trump losing in poll to 4 different Dem candidates ..Biden, Warren, Sanders & Harris

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457645-fox-news-poll-shows-trump-losing-to-biden-warren-sanders-and-harris

    Fox on Trump crime!

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    #1202666

    VirgilCaine
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    #1203613

    VirgilCaine
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    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/good-bad-ugly-trump-new-nbc-wsj-poll-n1043831

    “The good: Despite his overall job-approval rating at 43 percent, Trump’s approval rating in handling the economy is much higher — at 49 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove. (The poll was conducted mostly before Wednesday’s 800-point drop in the Dow.)

    The bad: The sliver of Americans who approve of Trump’s job handling — but who disapprove of his overall job performance — aren’t potential Trump voters in 2020. In fact, they back a generic Democrat over Trump, 73 percent to 5 percent.

    The ugly: Only 36 percent of Americans say they approve of Trump’s handling of the aftermath of the El Paso and Dayton shootings that killed more than 30 people.”

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    #1204028

    VirgilCaine
    Participant

    Anyone surprised by either of these:

    https://apnews.com/1ad13f32984a4480a45738ead2b4c0d8

    AP-NORC poll: 62% disapprove of how Trump’s handling his job

    NEW YORK (AP) — About 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump’s overall job performance, according to a new poll released Thursday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which finds some support for the president’s handling of the U.S. economy but gives him weak marks on other major issues.

    Just 36% of Americans approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president; 62% disapprove.

    The numbers may be ugly for a first-term president facing reelection in 14 months, but they are remarkably consistent. Trump’s approval rating has never dipped below 32% or risen above 42% in AP-NORC polls since he took office.

    No other president has stayed within so narrow a band. Since Gallup began measuring presidential approval, Trump is the only president whose rating has never been above 50%. Still, several — Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush — logged ratings worse than Trump’s lowest rating so far at some point during their time in office.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-has-remade-gop-but-poll-finds-its-at-a-price/ar-AAGb3xH

    Trump has remade GOP, but poll finds it’s at a price

    “Trump’s hold on the party’s voters has surprised and dismayed GOP elected officials who identify with the party’s traditional, business-oriented wing. Many of them initially believed they would be able to limit Trump on issues such as trade and immigration, only to discover that disagreeing with the president put their careers at risk.

    Trump’s triumph, however, has come at the price of alienating a significant slice of the GOP electorate, the poll shows: Among Republicans, 12% said they would be unhappy to see him reelected.”

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