Currently, there are 0 users and 1 guest visiting this topic.
Viewing 13 reply threads

  • Author

    Posts

    • kenntak

      Participant
      Post count: 1330

      A major problem for the Bucs in 2019, and one of the biggest problems that needs to be addressed before they can seriously contend–turnover differential. Here are the teams with the best turnover differential last year, and where the Bucs ended up. Notice something about almost all of the leaders?

      1. New England Patriots
      2. New Orleans Saints
      3. Green Bay Packers
      4. Seattle Seahawks
      5. Minnesota Vikings
      6. Baltimore Ravens
      7. Kansas City Chiefs
      8. Pittsburgh Steelers
      9. Tennessee Titans
      10. Buffalo Bills
      11. San Francisco 49ers

      28. Tampa Bay Bucs

    • Hockey Duckie

      Participant
      Post count: 1528

      I’ll go on a deep dive to give readers more depth on why those 11 teams have positive turnover differential

      OLine Run Blocking Ranking (Football Outsider, FBO)

      • NE = 9
      • NO = 1
      • GB = 6
      • Sea = 15
      • Min = 7
      • Bal = 2
      • KC = 28
      • Pit = 30
      • Ten = 3
      • Buf = 16
      • SF = 8
      • TB = 23

      Of the top-11 turnover differential teams, 9 of them have an average (16th) to better run blocking unit (1st).  Of those 9 teams, 7 of those teams rank in the top-10 in run blocking.

      KC and Pitt have abysmal run blocking units.

      OLine Pass Blocking Ranking (Football Outsider, FBO)

      • NE = 5
      • NO = 3
      • GB = 10
      • Sea = 24
      • Min = 14
      • Bal = 8
      • KC = 4
      • Pit = 12
      • Ten = 32
      • Buf = 23
      • SF = 15
      • TB = 22

      Of the top-11 turnover differential teams, 8 teams ranked average or better.  Of those 8 teams, only 5 teams rank in the top-10.  Here is where KC makes up for a lack of run blocking as they rank 4th overall.  Pit has a 12th overall ranking in pass blocking despite ranked 30th in run blocking.

      Extreme Imbalanced Teams

      • KC: Run = 28, Pass = 4
      • Pit: Run = 30, Pass = 12
      • Ten: Run = 3, Pass = 32

      Just using the OL blocking stats, we can identify mostly why those top-11 turnover differential teams are in the top-11. Even with extreme imbalance, teams can be in the top-11 turnover differential.  Another pattern here is that 8 of the 11 teams have better run blocking units than pass blocking units.

      A quick assessment here says that you improve your chances of reducing turnovers by having an average to above average run game.  NE, KC, and Pit buck that trend.  To me, Pit is the oddest team in that top-11 set.

      <span style=”font-weight: 700 !important;”>Breakdown of Turnovers (ESPN)</span>

      • NE: 36 (take) – 15 (give) = +21
      • NO: 23(take) – 8 (give) = +15
      • GB: 25 (take) – 13 (give) = +12
      • Sea: 32 (take) – 20 (give) = +12
      • Min: 31 (take) – 20 (give) = +11
      • Bal: 25 (take) – 15 (give) = +10
      • KC: 23 (take) – 15 (give) = +8
      • Pit: 38 (take) – 30 (give) = +8
      • Ten: 23 (take) – 17 (give) = +6
      • Buf: 23 (take) – 19 (give) = +4
      • SF: 27 (take) – 23 (give) = +4
      • TB: 28 (take) – 41 (give) = -13

      There are some very good defenses here that take the ball away a lot.  And this is where Pit makes sense in the top-11 turnover differential team despite being abysmal in the run and a 12th rank pass team because they had 30 giveaways!  Pit’s defense is feasting on turnovers.

      Of the top-11 turnover differential teams, 8 of them had fewer than 10 INTs.  The three teams that had more than 9 INTs are Pit (19 INTs), Buf (12 INTs), and SF (13 INTs).  In fact, SF had the second most giveaways of the top-11 turnover differential teams.  It is fortuitous that SF possesses a strong run game and a stout defense to overcome Jimmy G’s INTs, which is why he threw only 8 passes in the NFC championship game total!

      Out of the top-11 turnover differential teams, none of them has both run blocking and pass blocking unit ranked below average.  None.

      Tampa had a 22nd ranked pass blocking unit and a 23rd ranked run blocking unit.  What is sad about that identification is the fact the defense induced 28 takeaways, which is better than 7 of the top-11 turnover differential teams, including SF!

      While the OP’s presentation was to insinuate the QB is the reason, which is partially true, the other part is the OL blocking unit.  The most risk averse QB with a below average pass blocking unit (24th) and not aided by top-10 run blocking unit (15th) was Seattle’s Wilson with 6 INTs only.

      How does one corral a turnover prone QB?  Welp, SF already gave us the road map (to which I and many others have been opining for years) on how to reduce turnovers on offense.  Create a very strong run game to limit the opportunities your QB possesses into throwing INTs.

       

       

    • jerseybucsfan

      Participant
      Post count: 551

      Pro Football Focus had the Bucs 7th in pass protection. The majority of Winston’s turnovers had nothing to do with a lack of time to throw. I suppose it depends on what narrative you prefer to believe.

    • jcaulfield8

      Participant
      Post count: 102

      ill do a deep dive into why we are 28th.

      Based off the stats:  Our qb gives it away for fun.

       

    • Alldaway 2.0

      Participant
      Post count: 4689

      https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

      According to next gen stats Winston had a TT stat of 2.77 seconds in 2019. Time to throw is time of snap to release of pass.

      Now here is where things become interesting with TT stat.

      We know that Dalton played behind a poor o-line so it wasn’t necessarily because of his quick decision as he was forced to make quick throws. This is why Dalton’s TT stat was 2.51 which made him #1 overall.

      However QB’s like Brees had a TT stat of 2.57 which is more likely a result of him having a quick release and quick decision making which he is known for and also the quicker developing routes of SP’s offense. After Brees you have Fitzpatrick, Flacco, Rivers, Trubisky, Jimmy G, Manning, Stafford, Wentz, Allen, Murray and then Brady with a TT stat of 2.75 tied with C. Keenum whom both are ahead of Winston by a marginal amount.

      Now looking at the five QB’s with the TT stat at the bottom.

      K. Cousins with a a TT stat of 3.01, followed by Brissett TT stat of 2.93, Darnold and Jackson TT stat of 2.92, and Tannehill TT stat of 2.9.

      Time to throw is basically impacted by OL protection, speed of decision making, release time of QB,development time of routes and play action passing.

      QB’s with the most time to throw seems to have benefited greatly from play action passing.

      So yeah the Bucs don’t need an elite running game, but a small improvement would impact how much time a QB has to work with in Arians longer developing routes.

      Whether it is Winston under center or a new QB that is what I found interesting from that stat.

      How does this pertain to turnovers from the QB position?

      Lets use Goff/Carr as the dividing line.

      Goff TT stat was 2.8 and he had 16 INTs on the year compared to Carr’s TT stat of 2.82 with 8 Ints. That doesn’t tell you much.

      However, you look further you see that a lot of QB’s with less TT than Goff that also had a double digit INTs for the season like Goff.

      I counted 9 players with double digit INTs (Mayfield, Ryan, Winston, Murray, Allen, Jimmy G, Trubisky, Rivers, Fitzpatrick and Dalton) with a TT stat that was lesser than Goff’s.

      Now compared to QB’s with TT stat that was greater than Carr’s 2.82 there were only four QB’s with double digit INTs (Watson, Jones, Prescott, and Darnold).

      Bottom line is if a QB has more time to throw they are more likely to throw less INTs IMO.

      Build the trenches!

    • Alldaway 2.0

      Participant
      Post count: 4689

      Arians has said that 1 INT per game is acceptable. Which means 16 INTs for a season is the standard.

      Does Winston pass this standard?

      Winston’s rookie season 15 INTs in 16 games. Pass.
      Winston’s second season 18 INTs n 16 games. Fail.
      Winston’s third season 11 INTs in 13 games. Pass.
      Winston’s fourth season 14 INTs in 9 games. Fail
      Winston’s fifth season 30 INTs in 16 games. Fail.

      Two passing grades and three failures using Arian’s criteria. Bringing back Winston is rolling the dice. It will be interesting to see what Arians chooses to do.

      Build the trenches!

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 3527

      Different season, with different coaches, with the same exact excuses….

       

      coaches “long developing routes”.

       

      remind me, what’s the definition of insanity again?

       

      you winston fans are all the same

    • Hockey Duckie

      Participant
      Post count: 1528

      Pro Football Focus had the Bucs 7th in pass protection. The majority of Winston’s turnovers had nothing to do with a lack of time to throw. I suppose it depends on what narrative you prefer to believe.

      I use FBO and you use PFF.  We threw for more yards on the ground under Koetter than Arians, despite Arians benefiting from a resurgent C Jensen and Cappa needing a red-shirt year.  The team allowed more sacks in 2019 (47) than in 2018 (41).  I dunno what PFF believes makes the Bucs’ pass blocking rate that high when we gave up more raw sacks.

      Also, you completely missed the point of the breakdown.  A turnover prone QB can be mitigated with a strong run game, which is why I gave SF’s Jimmy G as the prime example.  He threw only 8 times in the NFC championship game and SF won.

      Tampa’s run blocking and pass blocking units ranked a ways away from average and those top-11 turnover differential teams all had one of their units ranked above or average.

      It doesn’t matter if Winston returns, if we grab a FA QB, or draft a QB, we need to improve our Oline.  But, hey, if you want to stand by PFF’s OLine ranking where the average raw sacks given up was 40 and the Bucs gave up 47 implies we ranked 7th, then something is wrong with PFF.  LoL  Sure, some of those sacks could be due to Winston playing hero ball, but other QBs do the same as well.

      So let’s stick by your PFF ratings.  By your standard, we don’t need to change things at all (well, we might need a new RT).  The eye test and stat productions scream contrarily.

    • kenntak

      Participant
      Post count: 1330

      @HockeyDuckie, you are wrong to  say that my presentation was to insinuate the QB is the reason. My only point was that turnover differential (which includes interceptions, fumbles and takeaways) is one of the main barometers of success. The Bucs AS A TEAM must greatly improve that stat, or they will be going nowhere.

    • seekpar

      Participant
      Post count: 1176

      Wasn’t the Bucs O-line one of the highest paid units in the league last year? The Bucs need to get more for their money there.

    • Alldaway 2.0

      Participant
      Post count: 4689

      Wasn’t the Bucs O-line one of the highest paid units in the league last year? The Bucs need to get more for their money there.

      Agreed.

      To me it seems Licht has poorly allocated resources. But PR staff pushes the idea that the Bucs can’t invest anymore resources into improving the unit because of such investment doesn’t make sense. At this point it is a sunk cost and that is not a factor.

      Bottom line is the Bucs upgrade 1-2 Ol starting spots this year and add another RB to the mix with RoJo, Logan and Ogunwale and this offense changes for the better.

      In my opinion there has been too much emphasis on the QB position and not enough of the supporting cast on the OL.

      I am not against Winston, Teddy B, or Carr coming into the fold. However, none of these QB’s are carrying this team to the playoffs if the Bucs don’t improve the o-line.

      Build the trenches!

    • Anonymous

      Inactive
      Post count: 3527

      The  supporting cast is just fine, it’s the idiot QB turning the ball over 39 times that’s the problem.

      and just to reiterate, the ‘overpriced’ Oline wasn’t the reason we lost 9 games.

       

    • Wutt

      Participant
      Post count: 397

      Just put a TLDR that says those teams have QBs who don’t throw to the wrong color jersey…

    • Hockey Duckie

      Participant
      Post count: 1528

      The supporting cast is just fine, it’s the idiot QB turning the ball over 39 times that’s the problem.

      and just to reiterate, the ‘overpriced’ Oline wasn’t the reason we lost 9 games.

      The lack of quality and talent on the OLine was the reason we lost 9 games.  We rely on the passing game so much because we don’t have a more than competent run game.

      San Francisco limited Jimmy G’s INT rate by being able to run more as well as having a better OLine.

      I’ll reiterate this stat again and again:

      • Run Block = 23rd (up from 31st in 2018)
      • Pass Block = 22nd (down from 15th in 2018)

      That means our Oline was below average in both run and pass blocking.  The sad proof of production is we had fewer yards on the ground and in the air compared to 2018, which had worse OLine talent (no RG and C Jensen was a waste).

      We can’t run block.  We can’t pass block.

      Because we can’t pass block, our QB’s see ghosts.  Last year, once teams figured out to exploit the center and RG, both Fitz and Winston started seeing a lot of ghosts!

      Also what’s amiss is the coaches’ philosophy and game play.  “No risk it, no biscuit” is the opposite of “Take what the defense gives you” philosophy of the Koetter regime.

      2018 Before Benching (Winston)

      • Games = 4
      • Comp Pct = 64.9%
      • TDs = 6 (1.5 per game)
      • INTs = 10 (2.5 per game)
      • Sacks = 13 (3.25 per game)

      2018 After Benching (Winston)

      • Games = 7
      • Comp Pct = 64.3%
      • TDs = 13 (1.86 per game)
      • INTs = 4 (0.57 per game)
      • Sacks = 14 (2.00 per game)

      Once Winston realized he was the problem within the scheme, he made the adjustments according to Koetter, Monken, and QB coach Bakj.  Winston stopped playing hero ball and played efficient game manager as Koetter wanted that style of game.

      Arians undid all that for Winston and told him to play HERO BALL once again.  Not only that, but it didn’t seem like the coaching staff was trying to help Winston become risk averse because the coaching staff loved the big play highlights as it fit into the “No risk it, no biscuit” philosophy.

      What people don’t understand about FBO’s run blocking stat with respect to Adjusted Line Yards is that FBO is trying to delineate if the OLine is good or not.  In 2019, the OLine itself was more responsible for generating the yards than our RB’s – despite producing fewer yards than 2018’s run group.  Beyond the adjusted line yards added handicapp, we were worse or stagnate on other OL blocking categories.

      2018 Run Blocking Rankings (FBO)

      • Adj. Line Yards = 31
      • Power = 22
      • Stuffed = 30
      • 2nd lvl = 27

      2019 Run Blocking Rankings (FBO)

      • Adj. Line Yards = 23
      • Power = 29
      • Stuffed = 30
      • 2nd lvl = 28

      This means we had an improved OLine personnel, but couldn’t run.  And in 2018, our OLine personnel sucked (31st adjusted line yards), but the coaching staff compensated for it in other ways.

      With Arians, we need more talent for run blocking and pass blocking because it’s apparent with lesser talents, Koetter got better production.

      Arians is great in the Red Zone, but couldn’t get into the Red Zone often.  Koetter got to the Red Zone often, but couldn’t score in the Red Zone.  That better talent in the OL helps immensely in the Red zone because with it’s more difficult to mask deficiencies in the Red Zone.

      Since we’re not getting rid of Arians, then we need to focus on improving the OLine talent.  Remember, we gave up more sacks in 2019 (47) than we did in 2018 (41).

      For all the people who claimed it was bad coaching under Koetter, we can clearly say with better talent Arians did worse than Koetter on the Oline.

      And believing our Oline is okay is a Licht idea because that’s what he’s been saying since 2016.  Remember, Arians is the QB whisperer, but he kept trotting Winston out there and didn’t bench him like Koetter did.

      My scope on the matter is far greater and I see things so much differently than simple hot takes.  We failed in 2019 which means Arians failed and Licht failed.  Yet, Arians and Licht aren’t sharing the same animosity towards Winston.  In fact, Arians threw Winston under the bus.  I already proved that Winston can be risk averse after his benching, but Arians doesn’t play like that.  Winston is the extension of Arians and Arians didn’t see any faults in Winston as Arians thought Koetter was the problem.

      One last time, SF threw the ball only 8 times in the NFC championship game and won.  This is how you reduce INTs by limiting throwing opportunities.

       

       

       

Viewing 13 reply threads
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.