Where Were the “Successful” QBs of last 10 Years Drafted?

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  • #1251344
    tog
    Participant

    There’s been a lot of (mostly media) writing about “What will the Bucs do if not Winston?”

    The answer is… find another QB.

    But the other side is the Bucs are well in position to draft a good QB (based on previous years where QBs were drafted).

    The metric of “successful” is not scientific, especially because there are some young QBs here. I chose to be inclusive rather than exclusive. Is Goff “successful”? You could strongly argue no, but I’ve included him rather than debate how much is him vs. McVay’s success.

    1-32 Jackson
    1-10 Mahomes: Chiefs traded from the the 27th pick, cost 1st, 3rd, 2018 1st
    1-12 Watson: Houston traded from 25th, cost that 1st as well as 2018 1st
    1-1 Goff: Rams traded from 15th, cost 1st, two 2nds, 3rd, 2017 1st, 3rd (got Titans 4th & 6th)
    1-2 Wentz: Eagles traded from 8th, cost 1st, 3rd, 4th
    4-135 Prescott
    2-62 Garoppolo
    2-36 Derek Carr
    1-1 Luck
    3-75 Wilson
    4-102 Cousins
    1-1 Newton
    2-25 Dalton

    Good quarterbacks can be found at a lot of places, and certainly outside of the top 5. I mean, the 2019 MVP was drafted 32nd overall and the 2018 was drafted 10th overall. With the Bucs at 14th, both draft spots are very accessible in 2020.

    The flip side is that QBs are very hard to find. In 10 years worth of drafts you have maybe 13 QBs who are “successful” and certainly some of those are on the fringe.

    It also speaks to the importance of organization and coaching. Does Lamar Jackson because Lamar Jackson without Harbaugh? Mahomes without Reid? Impossible to answer – but the fact that many bad teams keep drafting QBs and missing while other teams find good QB play repeatedly partially answers that question.

    The big point? If there’s a franchise QB available after the 1st overall pick, the Bucs are well-positioned to get him (if they want).

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    #1251452
    Roy
    Participant

    Its about trade-offs. You aren’t addressing that.  In order to make your point, you deliberately avoid that subject because it muddies the waters considerably.  You are keeping it vague.

    But you say we are well-positioned, so me that implies you are endorsing a trade-up.  So lets look at the trade chart and the specific teams you have to get in front of.  I’m using the Drafttek trade value chart.

     

    The Bengals will take Burrow.  the sitting at 4, 5, 6 and 7 is the Lions, Dolphins, Chargers and Panthers.  They all could possibly draft a QB.  To move up from 14 to 4 to get ahead of those teams will cost 700 points equivalent of a late first round pick.  So are you willing to trade our first round picks from this year and next year to get a player who will likely be holding a clipboard in 2020?

    Going from 14 to 10 is 200 points (3rd round pick) for the right to move ahead of the Colts and Raiders two teams possibly looking for a QB.   OK sounds reasonable.  At ten you may get the 4th or 5th QB drafted.

    So OK maybe we just sit tight then.  If you sit at 14 you will probably get the 5th or 6th QB.  That doesn’t mean 6th best.  But you are sitting behind six or seven teams that could stand to draft a QB.

    And what about other needs?  When you trade those picks, you have to think about what else they could be used for.  Such as O-line and D-line.

    I’m just saying that we have the ability to look at the landscape of the 2020 draft and we don’t have to just talk in generalities about our situation.  And our situation is that if we don’t want to be in the back of the line for quarterbacks we are going to have to spend our first round pick in 2021. We need these picks.  And to say that we are “well positioned” is not addressing the issue of what you are giving up to get that position.

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    #1251455
    Pennywise
    Participant

    Sit tight and take love, sit him for a year.

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    #1251476
    blind melon
    Participant

    I think we’ll have a shot at Eason or Love at 14…

    So much more that is going to go into that pick this year.

    I think Arians will get his guy (who ever the heck that is…)

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    #1251473
    Havok904
    Participant

    It also speaks to the importance of organization and coaching. Does Lamar Jackson because Lamar Jackson without Harbaugh? Mahomes without Reid? Impossible to answer – but the fact that many bad teams keep drafting QBs and missing while other teams find good QB play repeatedly partially answers that question.
    _____
    You neglected to mention that a large number of the teams that are now considered “good” sucked before they found their guy.

    Luck and good fortune play a bigger role in selecting a good QB than the selection method.

    .

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    #1251535
    tog
    Participant

    @roy

    I don’t have to muddy the water, it’s already muddy. In 10 drafts there were maybe 10 really good QBs, and in some years there were 0. It’s complicated no matter what.

    I don’t understand your point. You’re saying I’m not talking about the trade-offs? What are the trade-offs? Potentially having to trade up? Sure… but I list the picks given up.

    The point is that in theory the Bucs are well-positioned to get a QB if he falls out of 1-1. Of course someone  needs to be willing to trade, the right QB needs to be in the draft, he needs to fall, etc.

    But these are ALWAYS the unknowns. The only time they aren’t is when you’re picking 1st overall. But teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans all got franchise QBs drafting further back than the Bucs. Of course, there’s 0% guarantee that the Bucs are in that position in 2020 for like 20 million reasons.

    Unless I missed your point?

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    #1251553
    Roy
    Participant

    Tog, I’ll try to be more brief.  I’m saying that every year is different and we can already see how 2020 might play out.  in the 2020 draft there are a lot of QB needy teams in the top 7 picks, unlike in 2019.    In 2019 the teams at the top were mostly not looking for QBs . Nor did the rumored trading frenzy happen.

    There seem to be a half dozen or so good prospects this year, but many will be gone in the top 7.  There could be a run on the QBs.  I think that your chances of hitting on a winner are not great if you are left in the dust of a QB run.  Aaron Rodgers slid down primarily because teams in the later stages of round one largely because teams just didn’t need a QB right then.   I see a lot of QB needy teams this year, so maybe its not a good year to hope to get lucky.  I hope I’m wrong.

     

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    #1251584
    captain ahab
    Participant

    In my opinion Arians is not going to go into next season with a Rookie QB under center. If there is any truth to the suggestion that the second year in an Arians offense is more productive then why start year one again and certainly not with a rookie.

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    #1251585
    RHBucsFan
    Participant

    Trade the farm for Burrow and the #1 pick

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    #1251623
    BucBalla85
    Participant

    Something good for TB is much of the offense is put in place. OL got a little better at the end of the season but still a pretty big weak link for sure. If we invest heavily in our lines and we go get a qb who can get our receivers the ball and can take better care of it than JW has is capable then I think thats an upgrade and I think you are right. Possibly could find that in a round other than 1. Its not quite easy as that but still possible. Maybe more possible than Winston cleaning up his turnovers..

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    #1251637
    tog
    Participant

    “You neglected to mention that a large number of the teams that are now considered “good” sucked before they found their guy

    Luck and good fortune play a bigger role in selecting a good QB than the selection method.”
    ————————————

    Uhhhh… of course luck and good fortune play a huge role in selecting a QB. I say that right in my OP. 13 “good” QBs in 10 years, and some of those guys are borderline. I mean, look at 2015 – not taking any QB was the right move.

    And actually I’d say a number of teams/coaches have had consistent success with QB play. How I think is in organizations, so with organizational continuity:

    Eagles have gone from McNabb, to Vick, to Foles, to Sanchez, to Bradford, to Wentz.

    Chiefs have gone from Smith to Mahomes.

    Colts have gone from Manning to Luck.

    Ravens went from Flacco to Jackson.

    Seahawks went from Hasselback to Wilson.

    *********

    It’s not all pretty (like Sanchez and Bradford for the Eagles). And Flacco had an inspired Super Bowl run but then was a contract albatross. The Colts made mistakes with Luck.

    But good teams are largely able to get +QB play consistently, even from lesser QBs like Flacco, Alex Smith, and post-prison Mike [Vick].

    Reid has gone from McNabb to Vick to Smith to Mahomes.

    Harbaugh has had Flacco and Jackson.

    Pederson got +performances from Foles and Wentz in his short HC career.

    Kyle Shanahan has gotten good performances at every stop as OC/HC.

    Again – no magic! All I’m saying is that some coaches/teams are able to identify and maximize the QB talent they have. Who knows what happens to Winston or Mariota under Andy Reid. Or maybe he never drafts them? Or maybe they flop?

    P.S. total crap shoot if the board lets me post this this time asdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfasdfadsfdasfdsafasdfdsaf

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    #1251642
    Pennywise
    Participant

    This is what I have been saying for months..below is from brugler and,a scout

    He is a very twitchy passer and athlete, using loose movements to create outside of structure and effortlessly deliver fastballs downfield. Love needs to fine-tune his decision-making and show better understanding of what the defense is doing, but his downfield touch and middle-of-the-field accuracy are above average. Although his statline appears unsightly, Love isn’t playing with NFL talent around him and I remain confident about his next level potential (NFC East scout: “We’ve got our guy (quarterback), but if we were in the market, Love has the best raw talent and potential of this group. Just scratching the surface.”)

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    #1251650
    pewterblood
    Participant

    It heavily depends on how competent a franchise is. A good FO/organization will make a team competitive and most likely find a starting QB from anywhere. A great franchise like the Packers go from Favre to Rodgers. Teams like the Browns and Bucs go from crap QB to crap QB. Great FOs just know how to make it work. Teams like ours go from Freeman to Winston because this organization sucks and hires Dominik and Licht as GMs. Get the FO straightened out and finding a QB will not be an issue.

    Lamar Jackson and Mahommes are on cheap rookie deals. Jackson doesn’t even make $1M/yr and Mahommes makes $4M/yr. But here we are talking about possibly giving Jamies a deal of 30$M/yr. That’s why this franchise is awful.

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