ST. LOUIS, MO - DECEMBER 17: Head coach Lovie Smith of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers watches from the sideline in the first quarter against the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome on December 17, 2015 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
SR’s Fab 5 is a collection of inside scoop, analysis and insight from yours truly, PewterReport.com publisher and Bucs beat writer Scott Reynolds. Here are a few things that caught my attention this week at One Buc Place and around the NFL:
FAB 1. BUCS ARE FADING DOWN THE STRETCH
Here are some of my initial reactions following the Tampa Bay’s 31-23 loss at St. Louis on Thursday Night Football. The defeat gives the Bucs a 6-8 record and eliminates the team from having a winning season and all but mathematically seals its fate when it comes to the playoffs.
• Tampa Bay started 2015 going 1-4 in the first quarter of the season, followed by a 2-2 stretch. A 3-1 run in the third quarter of the season gave the Bucs a shot at getting over .500 and into playoff contention.
But a crushing loss at home to New Orleans and a road loss on Thursday night at St. Louis has sent the Bucs into a tailspin as injuries are mounting in Tampa Bay.
“We lost two games – it’s nothing more than that,” Smith said after the loss to the Rams. “But overall, we’re heading in the right direction. We have a couple of spots where we are a little short-handed and we’re not playing as well as we need to.
Rams WR Tavon Austin scored twice vs. Bucs – Photo by: Getty Images
“Being close just doesn’t do it. On a night like tonight that was the story. Close, did a few good things, but we didn’t play consistent football.”
Tampa Bay, which was without wide receiver Vincent Jackson (knee), middle linebacker Bruce Carter (ankle) and nose tackle Akeem Spence (ankle) against St. Louis, has now lost three of its last four games – all to teams with losing records. That shouldn’t be ignored.
“It’s very important on how we finish,” Smith said. “We still haven’t played our best ball. We get an opportunity to come home against the Bears and play our best ball.”
That’s not true. Tampa Bay played its best ball in a 45-17 demolition at Philadelphia. Since then the offense has averaged 18.75 points per game and hasn’t scored more than 23 points. Meanwhile, the defense has surrendered an average of 24.75 points per game.
“There is a lot for us to still accomplish,” Smith said. “As we finish up, we want to talk about the progress we made and all of the good things. We came up a little bit short in the end as we trend and go forward.”
If the Bucs don’t win at least one of their final two games – at home versus Chicago and on the road at Carolina – it’s hard to believe the Bucs are trending upward with four straight defeats to end the season and losses in five of the last six games. Ending the season 6-10 on such a bad note should put Smith squarely on the hot seat in 2016.
A 7-9 or 8-8 finish would keep Smith off it. He needs to win one of these two remaining games or the heat will be on all offseason.
• The Bucs defense is awful and needs to be completely overhauled. The worst kept secret in Tampa Bay is that general manager Jason Licht is gearing up for a defensive-laden draft, which is a necessity, especially after Thursday’s loss at St. Louis.
The Bucs have keepers at weakside linebacker in Lavonte David, at middle linebacker in Kwon Alexander and in under tackle in Gerald McCoy, but need a lot of help at defensive end and in the secondary.
Rams WR Kenny Britt – Photo by: Getty Images
Rookie cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah has given up three touchdowns in three of the last four games, including a 60-yard bomb to Kenny Britt.
“Defensively, you have to not be able to give up big touchdown passes,” Smith said. “Big, long [touchdowns], trick plays. You have to play some of those plays better.”
Speedy St. Louis utility player Tavon Austin made the Bucs defense look silly at times, bobbing and weaving his way into the end zone on a 17-yard reception and a 21-yard end around.
“We didn’t put much fight – I shouldn’t say much fight – we just didn’t challenge them on some of those throws,” Smith said. “Simple as that.”
Smith’s defense came into Thursday’s game allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68 percent of their passes. That’s an obscene number, and completely unacceptable regardless of whom is playing in the secondary.
After allowing Drew Brees to complete 74 percent of his passes and throw two touchdowns on Sunday, Tampa Bay permitted third-string quarterback Case Keenum to complete 82.5 percent of his throws with a pair of TDs and a QB rating of 158.
Case friggin’ Keenum, folks.
Add his name to the list of dubious quarterbacks that have beaten Smith and his defense over the past two years.
Carolina’s Derek Anderson (twice). St. Louis’ Austin Davis. Cleveland’s Brian Hoyer. Minnesota’s Tedd Bridgewater (as a rookie). Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota (as a rookie). Houston’s Ryan Mallett. Washington’s Kirk Cousins. Indianapolis’ Matt Hasselback. And Keenum.
That’s 10 losses to backup quarterbacks or rookies over the past two years, folks. Pathetic.
I know that there are injuries on the defensive side of the ball and a short week doesn’t help – nor does middle linebacker Kwon Alexander’s four-game suspension. But to give up 31 points to an offense that came in averaging 16.2 points per game is ridiculous. At times Smith’s defense looked like the Keystone Cops, flailing around trying to get a hand on Austin and knocking each other out while trying to sack Keenum.
• There is a lot of optimism in Tampa Bay, but it’s primarily on the offensive side of the ball where offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has proven to be a better play-caller on his side of the ball than Smith has on his – despite the offense featuring as many as five rookies on the field at one time when personnel packages include wide receivers Donteea Dye and Adam Humphries along with quarterback Jameis Winston and offensive linemen Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith.
The Bucs accumulated 509 yards of offense against St. Louis, which ranks fifth overall in Tampa Bay history. The Bucs passed for 363 and rushed for 146, while averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Earlier this year, the Bucs put up 521 yards at Philadelphia, which ranks second in franchise history.
Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images
“Whenever you have over 500 yards there are some things you’ve done fairly well,” Smith said. “We didn’t finish as much as anything.”
The charismatic and energetic Koetter has been an amazing hire by this franchise and done wonders developing Winston along with quarterbacks coach Mike Bajakian. Winston, who had a career-high 363 yards against the Rams, has been as good as advertised, becoming the youngest player in NFL history to throw for over 3,000 yards. He set a franchise rookie record with his 20th touchdown pass of the season, which came on Thursday night.
• How about Winston’s grit and fight? You’ve got to love the way this kid battles to the end. Winston shook off a very slow start, throwing for just 49 yards in the first half, to finish with 363 yards and two touchdowns and an interception. That’s 314 yards in one half.
“First half, I didn’t play good enough for us to win,” Winston said. “They were throwing a lot of different things at us. We were protecting good enough. I just have to make throws.”
Winston was under siege and was getting blitzed from everywhere and pressured often from Rams Pro Bowl defensive tackle Aaron Donald in the first half. He deftly avoided getting sacked and helped put 17 points on the board in the second half.
“The first half and the interception late hurt us,” Winston said. “It’s one of those days. We had plenty of opportunities. The offense – Doug Martin still did what he does. Mike Evans showed up to play. Adam Humphries showed up to play. In these situations your quarterback has to show up and play.”
Although Winston had two red zone touchdown passes to tight end Luke Stocker and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, two drives stalled in the red zone as a result of some of his errant throws. Winston started the game too emotional and too erratic, completing 1-of-6 passes for 10 yards before settling down at halftime and leading a second-half charge.
“Lesson learned,” Winston said. “You’ve got to learn a lesson and move forward. The season’s not over yet. What we wanted – our playoff hopes – are probably done. But the season’s not over. We’re still going to go out there and compete. We’re going to go out there and fight and try to go 8-8.
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Getty Images
• Helping Winston have a big second half were wide receivers Mike Evans and Adam Humphries and running backs Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Evans had nine catches for 157 yards (17.4 avg.), while Humphries also helped move the chains, catching a career-high six passes for 60 yards (10 avg.).
Evans went over 1,000 yards for the second straight season and now has 1,046 yards and three touchdowns on 66 catches. Last year he had 68 catches for 1,051 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Martin rushed for 91 yards on 18 carries (5.1 avg.) with 68 of that coming in the first half. He currently leads the NFL in rushing with 1,305 yards and five touchdowns on 256 carries (5.1 avg.).
Sims was more effective in the second half, rushing for 42 of his 50 yards, which came on seven carries (7.1 avg.). Sims had a big 35-yard gain on a sweep and also caught three passes for 22 yards in the game.
• The final point to make about Thursday night’s loss at St. Louis is how penalties continue to cripple Tampa Bay’s efforts to win games. As expected, the Bucs played to their season average and were flagged nine times for 56 yards with some of those infractions coming at very inopportune times.
Winston was flagged for a delay of game on second-and-goal from the St. Louis 9-yard line in the second quarter. That pushed the ball back to the 14 and three plays later the Bucs had to settle for a 32-yard field goal by Connor Barth.
In the fourth quarter tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins was flagged five yards for throwing the football after getting tackled inside the 1-yard line. After three incompletions by Winston the Bucs were not able to punch the ball in for a touchdown and had to settle for a field goal – although Smith should have gone for it.
Seferian-Jenkins’ penalty was stupid, as was defensive end Will Gholston kicking a Rams player after a play. Gholston did have a game-high and career-high 11 tackles, which was the most by a Bucs defensive lineman since Warren Sapp had that many against San Francisco in 1997.
The same could be said for the stupid encroachment penalty on defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, and 31-year old Gosder Cherilus, who is tied for the third most penalties in the NFL, getting flagged for illegal formation. How does a veteran offensive lineman get flagged for illegal formation this late in the season? Just ridiculous.
Bucs head coach Lovie Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Although Smith has yet to have a foul called on him, his football team is the most undisciplined in the NFL and leads the league with 134 penalties for 1,083 yards, which is embarrassing. That reflects poorly of the head coach. Penalties have been a problem since he took over the Buccaneers last year and Smith has yet to find a way to stop them.
“Everything is hurting us,” Smith said. “Not scoring enough on defense, or not scoring enough on offense. Not being able to stop them on defense – and penalties that we can’t make. It’s all a part of the bad plays we had tonight.”
The Rams were only penalized five times for 35 yards on Thursday night and seemed to be getting all of the calls and the non-calls despite being the third-most penalized team in the NFL. Once again the refs called a lopsided game in favor of Tampa Bay’s opponent, and seem to have it in for the Bucs.
The refs blew two targeting calls after Humphries got drilled in the head after a catch in the second half, and Winston was hit with a forearm to the head on a 5-yard scramble in the first half to set up a fourth-and-1 that the Bucs would fail to convert. While Winston was complaining to the officials he was shoved twice in the back by defensive tackle Aaron Donald right in front of the refs, who did nothing.
I will say that it’s quite damning that the mild-mannered Smith doesn’t work over the officials much and lobby for calls – certainly not like former Bucs coach Jon Gruden did. Gruden would do that and there would often be “make-up calls” shortly after the refs missed a call that “Chucky” would go ballistic over. Having Smith chew the officials out like other head coaches do would certainly help the Bucs’ cause in getting some more favorable calls against their opponents and perhaps some less calls against his own team. That kind of stuff works in the NFL.
FAB 2. SMITH IS GETTING OUTCOACHED IN CRITICAL LOSSES
I know Tampa Bay just played St. Louis on Thursday night on a short week, but I want to revisit one of the most critical games of the 2015 season – a 24-17 letdown loss at the hands of a four-win (now five-win) New Orleans team. This deflating defeat cost the Bucs a real shot at the playoffs and a chance to have a winning record for the first time since Tampa Bay was 6-5 during the 2012 season.
It looked like the Bucs came out flat, falling down 14-0 early at home, but head coach Lovie Smith dispelled that notion.
“They played better than we did,” Smith said. “You can give the adjectives to it. They played better ball than us. It’s a simple approach. I wish I can tell you exactly why we didn’t convert on third down or fourth down or whatever it was. I can’t. Don’t have a lot of time to think about it either. We played bad. They won today. We’ll play better next week.”
I agree with Smith to an extent. The Bucs didn’t come out flat. If you watched Jameis Winston’s pre-game speech on the field to the team on Buccaneers.com and if you watched the players running out of the tunnel, they were very much up for this game.
Bucs head coach Lovie Smith – Photo by: Getty Images
Smith’s motivational ability is held back by his rather bland personality – he’s more Tony Dungy than Jon Gruden – but Winston is a firebrand. He’s become the Bucs’ emotional leader like he was for the Florida State Seminoles. That was desperately needed in Tampa Bay.
Smith is right in that the Bucs played bad. Smith is also right in suggesting that he and his staff coached poorly because they did.
“Nobody played well today,” Smith said. “It’s kind of simple as that. There were plays to be made out there today that we did not make. I wish I could sit up here and tell you someone played well. We didn’t. Maybe the video will say something else. Right now, a day like today – just being real – no one, none of us, of course starting with the head football coach. That’s as bad a job as I have done.”
Smith is not a very good game day strategist. That’s ultimately what led to his dismissal in Chicago after a 10-6 season. The Bears had built a championship defense during his tenure and were adding weapons on offense, but were being held back by poor game management.
We’ve seen that in the 30 games Smith has coached in Tampa Bay. The St. Louis and Cincinnati games from 2014 immediately come to mind, in addition to games at Washington and Indianapolis, and most recently at home against New Orleans and on the road in St. Louis. Let’s take a closer look at the loss to the Saints and analyze some serious shortcomings on Smith’s part.
Heading into Sunday’s game there were some clear “givens.”
1. Drew Brees was healthy. Tampa Bay won in New Orleans largely because Brees was hurt on a sack early in the game and had trouble throwing, evidenced later in the game by an underthrown pass in the second half that would be picked off by safety Chris Conte in Week 2. Brees would be healthy on Sunday.
2. Brees was hot and was going to throw to win. Despite losing four straight, Brees was averaging 322 yards per game over the last five games and was completing 68 percent of his passes during that stretch with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Brees was held to 63 percent by Tampa Bay in Week 2, largely because he was injured. Brees was averaging 40 passes per game, and with running back Mark Ingram out with an injury, the Bucs were going to get at least 40 throws from Brees.
3. Brees has had a lot of success versus the Tampa 2 defense. Brees has seen a ton of the Tampa 2 defense in his career, and beat Dungy’s Indianapolis defense to win New Orleans’ only Super Bowl. Smith should know from his won experiences in losing to Peyton Manning and Dungy’s Colts in the Super Bowl that elite QBs like Brees can go on 12-play drives and not mess up.
4. Tampa Bay’s pass rush would be lacking. The Bucs benefited from three sacks by defensive end Jacquies Smith and a sack from defensive tackle Gerald McCoy against the Saints in a Week 2 win. Smith was out with a hamstring injury, while McCoy was playing with a broken hand and was ineffective. Brees gets rid of the ball quickly and the Bucs were going to have trouble mustering a pass rush.
5. New Orleans was going to control the ball – and the clock. Because Brees is such an accurate thrower and due to the fact that the Bucs would be playing a good deal of Cover 2 and Cover 3 in an attempt to keep the receivers in front of the team’s defenders and limit big chunks of yardage through the air, the Saints would have a good chance of dinking and dunking the ball down the field and playing keep away in Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 68 percent of their passes coming into the game, and that was with some average QBs factored in. Brees is still an elite quarterback so that percentage could be higher on Sunday.
The Saints don’t need to run the football to move it, so forget the Ingram injury. That was a nuisance for them, but not a huge problem and Tim Hightower is a workmanlike back that can move the chains.
The game played out largely the way you would think it would have. Brees was hot and threw two touchdowns and was not intercepted. Smith relies on takeaways for his defense, but that is a variable the Bucs really can’t control. There weren’t many opportunities to take the ball away because Brees and the Saints protected it so well.
What a defense has much more control over is yards gained and getting off the field on third down by minimizing gains on first, second and third down. It’s easier and more common to bat a pass down on third down and force a punt than it is to pick it off.
The Saints had 26 first downs and held the ball for over 37 minutes – largely because Brees threw the ball 41 times, which was expected, and completed 75.6 percent of his passes. The only reason the Saints didn’t blow the Bucs out is because they had a dozen penalties of their own and kept shooting themselves in the foot.
Let’s examine two critical fourth downs in the second half with the Bucs trailing in both instances. The Bucs are down 17-10 and facing a team with a hot quarterback, knowing that you need touchdowns – not field goals – to beat the Saints. Smith calls for a 47-yard field goal on a very windy day instead of going for it on fourth-and-2 from the New Orleans 29.
A field goal makes the score 17-13 with the Saints still leading with six minutes left in the third. Connor Barth misses the kick in the swirling winds and New Orleans takes over at its own 37-yard line. Brees marches them down the field on a 10-play, 63-yard drive that results in a touchdown to give the Saints a 24-10 lead.
Everything about the way the game was playing out midway through the third quarter – Brees was hot, the Saints were controlling the ball and hadn’t turned it over, Winston wasn’t as sharp as he usually is, wide receiver Vincent Jackson was out with an injury, the Bucs were lousy on third downs on offense and defense – screamed to go for the first down and continue to try for a touchdown. There was plenty of evidence that was the right call, but Smith didn’t see it.
Look at the math and you would instantly say “No way” should the Bucs kick a field goal in that situation – whether Barth makes it or not. If he makes it, the Bucs are still down four points. They still need to score a touchdown regardless – or two field goals. Given the way the game was going, is it likely Tampa Bay was even getting two more possessions to kick field goals? If so, they would have to capitalize on both and hold the Saints scoreless, which was a tall order. The Bucs had already had two three-and-outs, and another five-play drive that only gained 13 yards that led to another punt.
Since the Bucs still needed at least a touchdown to tie the game, why not go for it on a fourth-and-manageable situation from the Saints end of the field? If the Bucs didn’t make it, the Saints would need to go nearly 10 more yards to score a touchdown. That’s a reasonable risk for the reward to continue to try to get seven points instead of the chance for just three.
Bucs WR Donteea Dye – Photo by: Getty Images
Now with 4:21 left in the game after Donteea Dye’s drop made it fourth-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 44, do you punt trailing 24-17? Absolutely not.
The Saints were moving the ball all day. They had two drives that ended in three-and-outs, but New Orleans also had clock-chewing drives with eight plays, 10 plays, 10 plays, 10 plays and 17 plays. And the Saints would wind up completing 71 percent on third downs.
Smith, who is a conventional wisdom kind of coach, looked at fourth-and-10 with his three timeouts and the two-minute warning and figured his defense could go make a stop and get the ball back.
“I thought we could back them up there and stop them,” Smith said. “That’s why I did that. [You] can second-guess it right now. I would make the same decision 10 out of 10 times on that.”
And that’s where Smith falters as a game manager. Smith followed conventional wisdom in an unconventional game that he failed to identify.
Where was the evidence that the Bucs were going to be able to make a stop – because Smith coaches that side of the ball?
The Saints converted three third downs and chewed 4:13 off the clock to win the game. Why? The Saints were converting 71.1 percent on third downs against the Bucs. Seventy-one percent, folks.
If Smith thought that Tampa Bay had less than a 50-50 shot at converting on fourth down, the stats sheet said the Bucs had a 29 percent chance of stopping the Saints. So why not go for it? Don’t you have to try to win the game right there? That’s what New England’s Bill Belichick – a very unconventional coach, and a legendary coach to boot – likely would have done given all of that information.
In thinking through Sunday’s loss, it’s really clear that Smith just doesn’t get it.
Even if the Saints stopped the Bucs they would have had to go nearly 50 yards for a touchdown and about 20 to get a decent shot at a field goal on a windy day. The Bucs would have just as good of a shot getting the ball back and if they score on that possession, they could try an onside kick.
It’s hard to come up with a scenario in which Smith was right on those fourth down calls. Brees doesn’t turn the ball over without pressure, and there wasn’t any pressure outside of two or three plays.
Points per possession were at a huge premium, and the Bucs only had nine possessions because the Saints controlled the clock with a 37:14 to 22:46 time of possession advantage. New Orleans had 78 plays to Tampa Bay’s 52 – a difference of 27 plays. Therefore the Bucs needed to be aggressive and score touchdowns whenever they could to have the best chance to win.
Smith doesn’t go for wins. He tries to avoid losses, and in today’s NFL that’s a recipe for losing. Smith did the same thing in St. Louis, opting to kick field goals on a fourth-and-goal from the Rams’ 14 in the third quarter to make the score 21-6, and on fourth-and-goal from the St. Louis 6, trailing 31-16.
Saints head coach Sean Payton and Bucs head coach Lovie Smith – Photo by: Getty Images
It’s not like Smith is a dumb coach. He’s not. There are several others that would have tried the field goal and punted in those fourth down situations against New Orleans and St. Louis. I don’t think Belichick would, and I don’t think New Orleans’ Sean Payton would have, either.
Payton outcoached Smith on Sunday, and that’s concerning because the six-win Bucs have just as much talent as the five-win Saints do. A head coach’s job is to get his team prepared to play and put his team in position to win games.
Smith didn’t put them in position to win, and the Bucs weren’t flat against the Saints. They were simply unprepared.
Smith had to have known that inside the red zone that Brees and Payton like to run pick plays against zone and man coverage, as they did on Willie Snead’s touchdown against Tampa Bay in the first meeting. So what did Smith call in the red zone? Cover 2 on the first score with no one jamming Marques Colston and giving him a free release coming off the ball.
When play-action froze middle linebacker Bruce Carter and he didn’t get any depth into his drop in coverage it was too easy for Colston to run to the middle of the end zone between the safeties for a “gimme” touchdown. Brees could have thrown that -3-yard pass with his eyes closed.
Smith opted for man coverage on Colston’s 1-yard touchdown, which again came on a pick route. Rookie cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah was lined up in the slot against Colston, but slipped and fell down when beginning to trail Colston. With New Orleans at the 1-yard line and the Bucs only having a depth of 11 yards to defend, playing zone and making the necessary switches in coverage would have made sense against that trips formation.
The reason why this is so important to illustrate and analyze is because the Glazers fired Dungy because he couldn’t get the Bucs offense right and was squandering a talent-laded defensive squad, and he couldn’t beat Philadelphia. The Glazers fired Gruden the year he became the franchise’s all-time winningest coach and shortly after signing a four-year contract extension because he and general manager Bruce Allen couldn’t draft worth a damn and they wasted a lot of money in free agents that didn’t pan out.
Gruden could manage a game, though. He might not have had the most talented team on the field due to poor drafts, but the Bucs weren’t unprepared, and he was a heck of a game day coach.
The Glazers need to recognize Smith’s shortcomings and decide whether they want to tolerate them. He’s not a brilliant play-caller on defense, which is one thing. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70 percent of their passes against Smith’s defense. Tampa Bay has made Washington’s Kirk Cousins and St. Louis’ Case Keenum, who completed 14-of-17 passes for 234 yards with two touchdowns and a QB rating of 158 on Thursday night, look like Pro Bowlers – Hall of Famers, actually.
And Smith is not a good game manager, which is a head coach’s primary job. Is Smith calling plays taking away from his game management?
Head coaches need to determine which players are active on game days, manage the clock, direct the tempo on offense, throw the red flag to challenge plays, and determine whether to punt, kick fields or go for it on fourth down.
The Glazers wanted a big name coach to replace Greg Schiano and they got one in Smith, whose record is 8-22. But the honeymoon is over in Tampa Bay. Poor coaching and game management have cost this team too many close games over the past two years.
St. Louis wanted a big-name coach too when it hired Jeff Fisher in 2012 – the same year the Bucs hired Schiano. Fisher has yet to post a winning record with the Rams, who have gone 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10 and 6-8 over the last four years (26-35-1).
Fisher, who like Smith has lost a Super Bowl, hasn’t produced a winning record since 2008 when he was in Tennessee. How does this guy still have a head-coaching job?
Tampa Bay has improved this season. There’s no doubt.
But how much of it has been a stellar rookie class that features four starters in Winston, left tackle Donovan Smith, right guard Ali Marpet and middle linebacker Kwon Alexander and a bona fide offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, and how much of it has been due to Smith?
Can Smith become a better game day manager or is he stuck in his ways and limited in that respect? How far can Smith take the Buccaneers?
Is Smith is Dungy’s league? Is he a coach of Gruden’s caliber?
These are question the Glazers need to seriously ponder this offseason. Otherwise the Bucs might have another Fisher on their hands – a guy that hangs around due to his past reputation but doesn’t win in the present.
Fisher, you know. The guy that will finish with a non-winning record for the seventh straight year – and the guy that just beat Smith and the Bucs.
FAB 3. DEEP DRAFT FOR DEFENSIVE ENDS HELPS TAMPA BAY
Unless Tampa Bay defensive tackle Gerald McCoy or defensive end Jacquies Smith picks it up in the final two games of the 2015 season, the Buccaneers will go 10 years without a double-digit sacker. The last time Tampa Bay had a pass rusher reach 10 sacks or more was in 2005, Simeon Rice’s last year as a Buccaneer.
Legendary Bucs DE Simeon Rice – Photo by: Getty Images
A few Bucs have come close. McCoy had a career-high 9.5 in 2013, and defensive end Michael Bennett had nine in 2012. But McCoy is an interior lineman, and in an era that features the quick passing game, it’s difficult for defensive tackles to reach double digit sacks. That’s why St. Louis’ Aaron Donald, who has 11 in his second season, is so special.
Bennett, a self-made defensive end that was originally undrafted, wasn’t re-signed by the Bucs in 2013 and the team has paid the price ever since. Bennett has since gone on to appear in the last two Super Bowls with Seattle, winning a championship two years ago.
Bucs head coach Lovie Smith inherited two franchise building blocks ideally suited for his Tampa 2 defensive scheme in McCoy, a three-technique defensive tackle, and weakside linebacker Lavonte David. But the position that has been lacking since Rice’s abrupt departure on the eve of training camp in 2006 has been a dominant right defensive end.
The Bucs have tried in vain to upgrade that position through the draft and free agency. Tampa Bay used the fourth overall pick in 2007 to select Gaines Adams, a soft player who didn’t develop any counter moves to complement his outside speed rush. He recorded 13.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions, including a pick-six, in Tampa Bay before the team traded him to Chicago during the 2009 season. Adams died of an enlarged heart in January of 2010.
The Bucs doubled up on the defensive end position in 2011, drafting Adrian Clayborn in the first round and Da’Quan Bowers in the second round. Clayborn is a try-hard player with limited athletic ability that had a career-high 7.5 sacks as a rookie but has only had 7.5 sacks over the past four years, including two this season in Atlanta.
With just seven sacks in five years, including a career-high three in 2012, Bowers is a bust. He lacks a passion for football and has had trouble staying in shape throughout his career. Bowers was signed this week by Tampa Bay to help with defensive tackle depth.
When Lovie Smith was hired to replace Greg Schiano as head coach in 2014, one of his first priorities was to sign defensive end Michael Johnson, who was a colossal bust. Johnson was a prima donna that lacked instincts and toughness, and produced just four sacks last year before walking away with $14 million of the Glazers’ money, which in one of the biggest robberies in the state of Florida’s history.
Top DE Sack Producers In Tampa Bay Since 2006
2006 – Greg Spires & Dwayne White – 5
2007 – Stylez G. White – 8
2008 – Gaines Adams – 6.5
2009 – Stylez G. White – 6.5
2010 – Stylez G. White – 4.5
2011 – Adrian Clayborn – 7.5
2012 – Michael Bennett – 9
2013 – Adrian Clayborn – 5.5
2014 – Jacquies Smith – 6.5
2015 – Jacquies Smith – 6
Bucs DE Jacquies Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
Since 2006, the Bucs’ top pass-rushing defensive end has averaged 6.5 sacks per season, which is what Smith registered last year in his first NFL season. In order for the Bucs to reach the playoffs the team needs a Pro Bowl threat off the edge with double that production. Rice had 15.5 sacks in 2002, which was the year the Bucs won Super Bowl XXXVII.
Finding that defensive end proved to be problematic over the years under former general managers Bruce Allen and Mark Dominik. Now it’s Jason Licht’s turn.
After spending all but one draft pick – used on middle linebacker Kwon Alexander – on offensive players over the last two drafts, the Bucs are expected to heavily address the defensive side of the ball in 2016. Tampa Bay’s first-round pick will likely be a defensive end due to the importance of generating a pass rush by rushing four defensive linemen in the Tampa 2.
It’s shaping up to be a solid group of defensive ends if a few highly-rated underclassmen forego their senior seasons and enter the 2016 NFL Draft as expected. Here is a look at the players expected to contend for first-round consideration:
1. DE Joey Bosa – Junior – Ohio State – 6-5, 275
Bosa helped the Buckeyes win the national title in 2014 with 13.5 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss and four sacks. He’s got 26 sacks in his college career, including five this year after being double-teamed so often. Bosa is widely regarded as the first defensive end off the board and will be a top 5 pick.
2. DE DeForest Buckner – Senior – Oregon – 6-7, 290
Buckner is a massive, five-technique defensive end in Oregon’s 3-4 scheme. He’s had a great year in 2015 with a career-high 9.5 sacks to give him 17 in his Ducks career. Buckner is a powerful pass rusher, and not an ideal fit in the Tampa 2, which favors quick-twitch athletes off the edge. Buckner could be a top 10 pick.
3. DE A’Shawn Robinson – Junior – Alabama – 6-4, 312
Robinson is a tremendous athlete for a 300-pounder and is a terrific run stuffer. He has some pass rush ability, evidenced by 5.5 sacks as a freshman and 3.5 sacks as a junior, but relies on power more than speed to win battles in the trenches. Robinson has the size to play defensive end in a 3-4 or defensive tackle in a 4-3 and is likely a top 20 pick.
OSU DE Emmanuel Ogbah – Photo by: Getty Images
4. DE Emmanuel Ogbah – Junior – Oklahoma State – 6-3, 275
The Nigerian-born Ogbah led the Big 12 with 13 sacks this year after recording 11 in a breakout sophomore campaign in 2014. Ogbah’s motor never stops as this quick, strong defensive end gets after quarterbacks from the left or right side. Ogbah has 28 sacks and 37 tackles for loss in his career, and is an ideal 4-3 defensive end. He’s slated to be a top 20 selection and would look awfully good in red and pewter.
5. DE Jonathan Allen – Junior – Alabama – 6-3, 283
Like Buckner and Robinson, Allen is more of a power rusher than he is a quick-twitch athlete, but he is effective at getting to the quarterback. Allen leads the Crimson Tide with 10 sacks this year and has 16 in his career. Allen is better suited to play defensive end in a 3-4 scheme or as a strongside defensive end in a 4-3 defense. That versatility will land him in the top 20.
6. DE Shaq Lawson – Junior – Clemson – 6-3, 270
Lawson is attempting to break the streak of absolutely mediocre Clemson defensive linemen that have entered the NFL over the past 15 years. After notching 7.5 sacks in his first two years for the Tigers, Lawson burst onto the scene in 2015 with 9.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss, which leads the nation. Lawson is a good athlete, but not an upper echelon end. He’ll likely be over-drafted due to the need for pass rushers and end up in the top 20.
7. OLB Leonard Floyd – Georgia – 6-4, 230
Floyd played outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense at Georgia, but he was often used as an edge rusher on passing downs where he recorded 17 sacks in his career. Floyd’s sack numbers are down in 2015 to 4.5 because the Bulldogs had him drop in coverage much more. While he’s an ideal fit as a 3-4 rush linebacker in the NFL, Floyd is ultra-athletic and has the juice off the edge a Tampa 2 team the Bucs looks for. Floyd is a top 20 pick.
MSU DE Shilique Calhoun – Photo by: Getty Images
8. DE Shilique Calhoun – Senior – Michigan State – 6-5, 252
Calhoun is a very athletic, twitchy pass rusher that has had a very productive career for the Spartans, racking up 27 sacks and 43.5 tackles for loss in his career. His motor doesn’t always run high and he can disappear in stretches during games – or sometimes disappear for stretches of games, which is problematic. Calhoun has four forced fumbles in his career and five fumble recoveries. He scored three defensive touchdowns in 2013 as a sophomore – two on fumble recoveries and one on a 56-yard interception. Calhoun’s athleticism could get him to the bottom of the first round.
9. DE Shawn Oakman – Senior – Baylor – 6-8, 276
Oakman, who is a chiseled, athletic freak, returned for his senior season, but has been a big disappointment, recording just 4.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss after notching a career-high 11 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in 2014. Oakman looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. The Bucs have already had that guy on their roster and his name was Michael Johnson. Most NFL scouts wouldn’t touch him before the third round, but there could be one foolish team that will fall in love with his measurable and athleticism and make him a late first-rounder. It won’t be the Bucs, though.
Cornerback is also a pressing need for the Buccaneers, but currently there are only two top-flight players in this draft – Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III and Florida State’s Jalen Ramsey. After Thursday night’s loss in St. Louis, the Bucs probably have the 12th or 13th pick in the draft depending on how other teams fare this weekend. Hargreaves and Ramsey are top 10 players, so right now it’s logical to assume Tampa Bay would be drafting a defensive end in the first round. Ogbah would be a solid selection.
FAB 4. SMALL SCHOOL PASS RUSHERS TO WATCH
With defensive end being such a position of need in Tampa Bay, don’t be surprised to see general manager Jason Licht, director of player personnel Jon Robinson and director of college scouting Mike Biehl double up on the position, grabbing a pass rusher early and late in this year’s draft. Here is a look at some under-the-radar edge rushers from small schools to keep an eye on.
Eastern Kentucky DE Noah Spence – Junior
Spence was once a blue-chip recruit at Ohio State where he starred as a sophomore in 2013, recording 50 tackles, 14 tackles for a loss, 7.5 sacks, one forced fumble and two passes broken up. He was suspended during the 2014 season for failing drug tests and testing positive for ecstasy. Spence was kicked off the team due to his addiction, but went to rehab to become clean.
Spence transferred to Eastern Kentucky where he had a big junior season, notching 63 tackles, 11.5 sacks, including 1.5 sacks vs. Kentucky, and one vs. North Carolina State, 22.5 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. He had four multi-sack games for the Colonels. Between Eastern Kentucky, where Spence was named the Ohio Valley Conference Co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2015 and Ohio State, he recorded 125 tackles, 38.5 tackles for loss, 20 sacks and forced four fumbles.
Despite being a junior, Spence will play in the Senior Bowl and is being discussed as a possible second-round draft pick. After a public intoxication arrest this past May, NFL teams, including the Buccaneers, need to really research Spence’s background and character. The fact that he has passed multiple drug tests at EKU and has been open about his past struggles with ecstasy helps Spence’s cause. If Spence’s athleticism and character shines in Mobile, Ala. he could work his way into the late first round.
Southern Utah DE James Cowser – 6-4, 258 – Senior
Cowser has been a force for the Thunderbirds and the Big Sky Conference for years, recording double-digit sacks for the past three years and recording at least 60 tackles in each of his four seasons at Southern Utah as the model of consistency. Cowser had 7.5 sacks as a freshman, 10.5 the next year, 11.5 as a junior, and 13 quarterback captures as a senior, including five multi-sack games in 2015.
Cowser had a whopping 280 tackles, 80 tackles for loss and 42.5 sacks in his Southern Utah career. During his junior campaign, Cowser broke the Big Sky Conference tackles for loss record originally set by Jared Allen with 28.5. He also has an interception, several blocked kicks, nine forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries, including one he returned 100 yards for a touchdown in 2015.
The knock on Cowser is that he dominated a lower level of competition and lacks upper-end athleticism. He’ll get the chance to show what he can do against FBS talent in St. Petersburg in mid-January as he accepted an invitation to the East-West Shrine Game. Cowser could be drafted anywhere from the third to fifth round depending on how he fares in the postseason and how well he performs athletically at his pro day.
Montana DE Tyrone Holmes – 6-4, 250 – Senior
Holmes had a breakout year in 2015, recording the most sacks in the FCS (and FBS) with a career-high 18 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss, 87 tackles and three forced fumbles. He had four multi-sack games last year.
Holmes finished his Grizzlies career with 214 tackles, 34.5 sacks, 47 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles. He had big shoes to fill, stepping in for Zack Wagenmann, Montana’s all-time leading sacker (37.5), who notched 17.5 sacks last year before signing with the Arizona Cardinals. Holmes did just that with a school-record 18.
Holmes has accepted an invitation to play in the East-West Shrine Game, which is played in St. Petersburg, Fla. to help boost his draft stock. Former Ole Miss star pass rusher Greg Hardy played in the East-West Shrine Game. Holmes is currently slated to be a Day 3 draft selection.
Stony Brook DE Victor Ochi – Photo courtesy of Stony Brook
Stony Brook DE Victor Ochi – 6-2, 255 – Senior
Ochi was tied William & Mary cornerback DeAndre Houston-Carson, who accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, for the Colonial Athletic Association Defensive Player of the Year award. He finished 2015 with 13 sacks, including five multi-sack games, 16.5 tackles for loss and 47 tackles in addition to a forced fumble.
Ochi is a high-motor player built like Tampa Bay defensive end Jacquies Smith and has a similar burst. He’s got 32.5 sacks, 51.5 tackles for loss and 182 tackles in his career to go along with four forced fumbles.
Look for Ochi to get a late invite to the East-West Shrine Game, which he deserves after the career he’s had with the Seawolves. He’s a real sleeper in this draft and could be a Day 3 steal for a team like Tampa Bay.
FAB 5. SR’s BUC SHOTS
• Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston is the ultimate teammate. In last week’s 24-17 loss to New Orleans, Winston could have ran the ball in for a touchdown on a bootleg, but opted to throw the ball to a wide open Adam Humphries.
“You could have run it in,” Humphries said to Winston on the sidelines.
“That’s not what it’s about,” Winston replied.
After the game, Winston revealed how dead set was to get Humphries, an undrafted free agent out of Clemson, his first NFL touchdown. This guy is going to be a real special quarterback – and his teammates love him. Winston became the emotional leader of the team after the Jacksonville game heading into the bye week.
• Kudos to former Bucs safety Mark Barron for making an impact with the Rams at weakside linebacker. Barron had seven tackles, a tackle for loss and a pass breakup against his former team on Thursday night. That gives him 105 tackles on the year to go along with a sack and two forced fumbles.
Tampa Bay traded Barron to St. Louis last year for fourth- and sixth-round picks. The sixth-rounder became return specialist Kaelin Clay, who was waived in August and is now in Baltimore. But the fourth-round pick helped Tampa Bay draft guard Ali Marpet and middle linebacker Kwon Alexander, as Tampa Bay Times reporter Greg Auman recently pointed out. Both Marpet and Alexander are starters.
The Bucs traded up four spots with the Colts in the second round to get Marpet, using the fourth-rounder from the Rams. Tampa Bay got Indianapolis’ fourth-rounder and paired that pick with a seventh-round selection to move up four slots in the fourth round to draft Alexander.
Both teams have made out in this trade, but the Bucs have Barron to thank for landing two future stars.
Rams DT Aaron Donald – Photo by: Getty Images
• The player I wanted the Bucs to draft in 2014 was Pittsburgh defensive tackle Aaron Donald. I even said that on a pre-draft edition of the Pewter Panel on Buccaneers.com on the eve of the draft with Scott Smith.
But with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy in a contract year and due for an extension, it wasn’t in the cards and the team took wide receiver Mike Evans instead. I have nothing against Evans, who topped 1,000 yards for the season against St. Louis on Thursday night, but he’s not a Pro Bowl-caliber player (yet) and Donald is.
Donald is a special player and his ultra-quick moves and physical skill set would be ideal in Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 defense. It’s much harder to find elite three-technique tackles than it is to find wide receivers.
Donald has 11 sacks on the year, and had five tackles, two tackles for loss and three quarterback hits against Tampa Bay on Thursday night. Donald was virtually unblockable and made a huge tackle for loss on Doug Martin on a run on fourth-and-1.
Right now Donald, who has 64 tackles this season, is better than a healthy McCoy, who has 27 stops and did little on Thursday night outside of splitting a coverage sack with defensive end Howard Jones. McCoy has 7.5 sacks on the season, which is good, but he’s never gotten to double-digit sacks in his six-year career. Donald, who had 10 sacks last year as a rookie, has done it twice.
I can understand why the Bucs didn’t draft Donald. The team followed conventional wisdom, which is to actually draft for need and not take the best player available.
It’s the same type of twisted conventional wisdom Tampa Bay used when it passed on future Hall of Fame running back Adrian Peterson in the first round in 2007 to take defensive end Gaines Adams because the team had already spent a first-rounder in 2005 on running back Cadillac Williams, who had just one 1,000-yard season. Draft the best player available from now on, Jason Licht.
• Speaking of the draft, here’s a quick look at who some of the more notable draft gurus around the Internet have Tampa Bay drafting in their early mock drafts with my analysis of their selections for the Bucs:
Bleacher Report’s Joe Pantorno: Baylor DT Andrew Billings
First of all, Billings has said he’s returning for his senior season. Second, the Bucs need a pass rusher and Billings is a defensive tackle with 7.5 career sacks. He’s a good player, but not better than some of the defensive ends that will be available.
WalterFootball.com: Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah
Ogbah’s a stud and I really like the pick. Walter has the Bucs taking Iowa cornerback Desmond King in the second round and Southern Utah safety Miles Killebrew in the third. This is winning draft for the Bucs and three needs are met with talented players.
WalterFootball.com’s Charlie Campbell: Penn State DE Carl Nassib
I think Nassib has some upside, but I don’t think he’s a first-rounder. He’s a one-year wonder who had 15.5 sacks this year to lead the FBS, but I think he’s more Margus Hunt than J.J. Watt. Campbell has the Bucs taking Samford cornerback James Bradberry in the second round and Oklahoma defensive end Charles Tapper in the third round. Those picks make sense from a need standpoint, but I think there will be better corners and edge rushers available.
Draft Breakdown’s Luke Easterling: Iowa CB Desmond King
I like King, who fills a need at cornerback, but not in the first round. Not yet. I need to see how he times before putting him in the top-20. He’s got ball skills, though.
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller: Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
I’m not a fan of Lawson, who reminds me too much of Da’Quan Bowers, another notable Clemson flop. Miller had the Bucs taking Duke safety Jeremy Cash in the second round and Florida safety Marcus Maye in the third. I like the Cash pick, but where’s the cornerback the Bucs desperately need?
CBS Sports’ NFLDraftScout.com Rob Rang: Oklahoma DE Emamanuel Ogbah
I love the pick. I think Ogbah has the chance to be a perennial double-digit sacker in the NFL. Great ability, great motor, great attitude and fits a need.
CBS Sports’ NFLDraftScout.com Dane Brugler: Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
I’m not a fan of Alexander. I would rather see the Bucs draft a defensive end in the first round and then come back and draft King – if he leaves for the NFL – in the second round.
• And finally, there WILL be a new SR’s Fab 5 next Friday on Christmas. Consider it my present to you, loyal Buccaneers fans and PewterReport.com visitors. You won’t want to miss this one! Happy Holidays!
Scott Reynolds is in his 23rd year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds enjoys giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: firstname.lastname@example.org
If I remember correctly, fan polls suggested back in August that 6-7 wins this season would represent significant improvement for the Bucs. It seems we’ve seen a bit more potential to get excited about thru the year and now those 6-7 wins aren’t enough. And that’s fair, but I’m pretty happy with this team and what it’s overcome with the injuries and suspension of #58. And I’m already excited about next year. Go Bucs!
Drum roll please! And here it is folks! Scott Reynolds should stand up and take a bow because he’s almost clairvoyant. Read where where he says we would be at this point in the season – even the results of the Rams game and his outlook for the remainder of the season. The man is damn good!
Read your own comments and see what you said then and what you’re saying now. I want belabor this, but I will give advice here. If any of you plan on writing your tell all memoirs, remember words matter and once you put them in print, you can’t take them back!
Macabee- Relax on the criticism of Reynolds who does a fine job for us, I know you are funny and have well thought out comments and scubog loves you to death, but Scott has been doing this for yrs and gives great insight on what’s going on with the Bucs, is he perfect? No, but then again neither are you
I’m not criticizing Scott. Scott is an accomplished journalist and is quite capable of defending his own reputation. I’m laughing at you. You said 3-13! lol.
Laughing at me? I care? Records don’t tell the story you think 6-10 will be an “I told you so”? I didn’t know before the season Romo wouldn’t play, Atlanta would suck, Saints would suck so and so on
Don’t get jealous JonnyG; I like your posts too.
The Bucs made my expectations which wa 6-10 and we still have a chance for a Chicao win Might I suggest to Lovie that Chicago knows your plays and when you will use them; you might want to change your scheme slightly to throw them off if you intend on having a chance for a win. For goodness sake, play Dotson! What the heck is wrong with you Coach!
We can’t keep pretending we’re set at the 3 tech because we have McCoy. Shoulda drafted Donald, that’s what a 3 tech looks like. Pushing, shoving, mixing it up, not helping them up. McCoy is not that explosive anymore, and won’t be improving with age. Trade him now while he’s still worth something. Lovie Smith is a horrible coach, and if he stays, I’d say be happy with 8-8 next year. I’m with you Scott, his logic boggles the mind. It’s like him deferring the ball to open games. Why would you want to trot that garbage defense out there to open games? Oh I know, so you’re rookie Q.B. can take the field down seven nothing! New’s flash Lovie, your defense isn’t your best unit. Oh well, Lovie says it’s just two losses nothing more. What if the season ends, and it’s nothing more then four in a row?
I can’t agree with you more!
I love how Scott said “lost games to less than Dubious qb’s like Derek Anderson, Austin Davis, Cousins, Mallet,Case Keenum” but as other fellow posters say “no asterisks please a win is a win even if its against Case Keenum” ha. I want the best Corner or DE in the draft when its our time to select period, same for round two in fact I want to hear a defensive player called for every round of next yrs draft. We have 4 starters on defense that means we have seven openings. I also liked how you mentioned our weak Defensive end stats for the past ten yrs but Scott doesn’t “play hard count”? and what if our DE is good vs the run and finishes with 3 sacks is that not good enough for the Bucs?, kidding aside we need a DE in front of Gholdston esp on passing downs, if we want to play him on obvious running situations fine, but not on 3rd down please
Too many holes to fill on the D in one year. Realize that Lovie and Licht blew it in yr 1 so we will only be 2 yrs into the turnaround next yr. Drafting for D in round 1 is fine but we need more OL draft picks, at least one in the first 3 rounds. That is where your 10-yr starters come from. Winston needs more time to throw, if he keeps running he is going to get hurt. If it’s me I pick OL in the 2nd or 3rd and again in the 4th or 5th. Let the next regime fix the D while the OL gels.
I like this Fab 5, particularly the DE breakdown. As for Fab 1 & 2 I’ll keep saying it, I don’t care who they fire at OBP. As for the DE breakdown, I’m not a fan of Bosa. I like players who perform better as they progress through their 1st, 2nd and final years in college. Show me that you’re developing and learning in college and have your final year be your best year when you put it all together, not have a bunch of excuses made for you (facing double teams, OC/DC changed, a new QB stopped throwing the ball his way, nagging injuries, etc.). That’s why I had E. Mack ranked ahead of J. Clowney and one of the reasons I had Mariota ranked ahead of Winston. In the case of Clowney, who draft’s a DE 1st overall with like 3.5 sacks his last year? In the same vein, why make a DE with 5 sacks his final year the first DE selected? I hope the top drafting teams do pick Bosa early and Ogbah is still available when we pick. I haven’t seen Oklahoma State play much this year, but his scouting report is too good to ignore and we need a DE. Ogbah is the only DE I like from this draft. The other guys I would take would be FS Ramsey, CB Desmond King, RB E. Elliott and CB Hargreaves…in that order. I think King is better than Hargreaves and will end up being a top 15 pick.
I forgot to add that I also don’t like one year wonders, no matter how good the year is or whether that year is the 1st, 2nd or final year. I learned that lesson for the last time with D. Bowers.
One of the problems that the Bucs have faced is the instability of constantly changing the regime and starting over in the last decade. So, If Lovie is gone, then it’s another coach who needs “his players” and the current players will have to adapt to yet another system. Just automatically chalk up another couple of years as losses. The defensive talent is woefully inadequate to compete and that will be addressed this year after Licht decided to focus on the offense over the last couple of years. I agree that Lovie may not be Belichick-esque; So then delegate more of the strategic offensive responsibility to Koetter? He seems to be up to the task? Lovie can focus more on defense and special teams. I believe that Lovie can be that very good defensive coach if he has the talent to work with. AGAIN, no one was assuming that we were going to be anywhere near 8-8 at the beginning of the season. I thought 7-9 would be great for a team that didn’t know what they had at QB. What this team needs is stability and patience. The most important piece of the puzzle has been found after 40 years… In the words of Aaron Rodgers; R-E-L-A-X.
e, Lovie should just be the Head Coach. Maybe promote Hardy Nickerson to DC. My concern is the Tampa 2 form Lovie is trying to run in today’s world and I don’t believe there are any CB’s or Safety’s that can perform it without a pass rush. Gholston and McDonald are the only two who should stay unless McCoy realizes he has to gain 20 pounds and get a new team attitude. He is no longer the franshise player; it’s Winston.
Well Scott, you nailed this one as usual. Lovie is too passive and it costs us at times. He’s not going anywhere this year and if I were th Glazers, I would tell him that next year it’s playoffs or you’re gone. Good comparison with with coach Fisher as I’ve always thought he never deserved all of the free passes he gets for putting mediocre teams on the field every year. I heard of the timeout debacle in the first half as well as I was at StarWars and didn’t see it.
There’s no fire on this team on the defensive side of the ball at all.I am also inclined to agree with Surfer, if you can get a first for Mccoy, trade him. I”m tired of his excuses and not production. Yes we can say he’s injured, but when is he ever not injured?
Jameis is the only fire on this team and that’s sad. It seems like it’s him and a bunch of guys going through the motions.
As for the DE I like, I haven’t watched much of OK state this year, but I like a guy that has multiple years of production, not just a one year wonder kind of guy like Nassib. I think Bosa is terribly overrated and he will go top 5 anyways.
In my dream scenario we would lock up Jalen Ramsey, but we’d have to trade up. He is that swag on defense that Jameis is on offense and can play multiple positions.
But from what I’m reading this will be a deeper draft with secondary talent and we better hope so. Our whole secondary is up for grabs besides Streling Moore, who still played well.
I THINK THIS IS A GREAT ARTICLE-But be cautious buc fans.Tampa must get these draft picks RIGHT. they must get each position correct. They need the best player available at each round. This is why I trust the scouts.GO Bucs
It’s not just Smiths Bucs of the last 2 years that make bad QBs look good. I have been saying all year that we have a 40 year history of making career back ups and rookies look like the second coming of Johnnie U. I prefer it when we play hall-of famers.
Clemson DE Shaq Lawson. I think the fans would torch 1 Buc Place to the ground in a fiery inferno if we drafted another Clemson DE.
Lovie will get another year but he does not deserve one. Another game with stupid penalties, busted coverages, dropped passes, questionable 4th down plays, no pass rush and not having a difference maker on the sidelines. ASJ kicking the ball after clearly NOT getting in is the epitome of what’s wrong with this team. Good teams don’t commit the types of penalties we do bc good coaches don’t allow it. Despite what Lovie claims to have done the proof shows his message has fallen on deaf ears. The best part of this team is the one he has nothing to do with and I don’t think that’s by accident. The defense will get some relief this offseason but if Lovie can’t get the guys to play fast and disciplined then it will be for naught. Anyone with sense never believed this team was coached well enough to make the playoffs. We have won our last game of the year as none of the remaining teams on our schedule have mailed it in which is what would be required for our defense to get enough stops to keep us in a game. Keep the draft prospects rolling PR it’s that time again!
Lovie ain’t the right coach- make whatever regime change/blah blah argument you want but Lovie ain’t gonna take us anywhere better than 8-8. So give him another year and another draft and we will again be a team that made strides but is handicapped by poor coaching and penalties-that’s lack of respect for the coach. Dirk has done his job- lovies just been collecting a check- he’s a bum…next!
ME and ASJ have got to grow up. If they need a good model to look at, they should watch Doug martin. He does his thing, makes his run, doesn’t stop trying until the whistle blows, gets up, hands the ball to the ref, and returns to the huddle. He is not encumbered by a diva-like ego and he produces.
What a great read that was Scott. I have defended Lovie in the past and will again on the future, but your opinion based on the facts you listed made great sense.
I especially liked the way you broke down the defenses on the two TD’s by the Saints.
Also glad to see you point out the horrible referring the Bucs have had to endure this year.
Once again, like you, I believe a more vocal Smith would have a great deal of bearing in how the refs called the game.
Last nights fiasco in St. Louis further heightend my beliefs for the reasons you stated.
Whatever the case, I believe Lovie will be with us one more year and if he doesn’t pull off a winning record, he will be gone.
it’s also interesting to note that Mark Barron is no longer playing safety for the Rams but is now a linebacker. Apparently Fisher thought as much about his coverage skills as Lovie did.
I love Winston’s leadership and his team first attitude but he needs to amp it down a bit. I believe a lot of his high throws are the result of him getting so emotional with his team.
And finally jongruden, your reasons for not even coming close to guessing the Bucs season record are almost as laughable as your prediction.
For someone who thinks they know it all, you come up horribly short. LOL.
Glazers should bring Lovie in at the end of the season and tell him to hire a new defensive coordinator or they are going to fire the head coach.
I know a lot of the defensives woes are because of poor personnel which was due to poor drafts in the past, but as Scott noted, the defenses being called aren’t jibing with what is occurring on the field.
Our OC should be the HC/OC. Love should join Dungy in life after coaching.
There were a lot of missed opportunities this season…
Our defense was really exposed…Mostly due to bad play in the secondary and an inconsistent pass-rush…Had we been able to hold opposing offenses to 20 points or less this season we’d have at least 10 wins right now…
What was most disappointing was how we got torched by back up QB’s; we made guys like Keenum, Hasselback, Cousins, and Mallett look like Pro-Bowl QB’s…
We spent a few years building our offense now the same must be done for the defense…A few things I’d like to see us add come off-season/draft is obvious…We need secondary help, pass-rushers, and a really good speed receiver (preferably one with hands) to complement Mike Evans…The silver lining for this season was of’course Jameis Winston and his fellow rookie class…
All in all, I did see progress this season so I’m happy for that…I think Lovie & Co has us going in the right direction; we as fans just have to be patient…guys like Jimmy Johnson, Pete Carroll, and even Ron Rivera didnt get their respective teams to the playoffs until year 3…That said, I expect us to be a much better football team overall in 2016…
I agree completely with 1sparkybuc. Why not give Koetter a shot at HC? Bring Hardy Nickerson in to run the defense, he knows Tampa 2 obviously. We keep continuity in the schemes and maybe we wind up with a coach who has pulse!!
Also agree that this draft needs to be all Defense. We still need a WR has I don’t see us bringing VJ back. But there are some decent Mid range WR’s available next year in free agency. The two I think we should look at are Marvin Jones/Mohamed Sanu on the Bengals. They are both UFA next year and either would be an upgrade over the scrubs we are using in place of VJ.
Here is hoping next year we have a new coach, some young talent on D, and a WR2 to play opposite Evans. Then I think we are going to make the playoffs!!!
I don’t think Adam Humphries is a scrub and I don’t think Winston does either.
The young man has worked himself into a very capable heady slot receiver along the lines of Wes Welker. Something this team has lacked for a long time.
At least he doesn’t throw the ball away in petulant fits of anger costing the team TD’s like certain star players.
I would take Fisher over Lovie in a nanosecond. All that’s missing for Fisher’s system to succeed is a good QB. And, while we probably wouldn’t have Winston on our team, we would be a better team and have won more games if we had kept Schiano (not saying he was great, just better than Lovie).
Great article. Pretty much captured all my thoughts and concerns. Especially about Lovie. He’s not a good game manager, he gets out coached routinely, he can’t call plays on defense, players are most undisciplined in the NFL, etc, etc. get so tired of hearing guys defend him and say we don’t have the talent. Of course they need more talent at DE,CB, and safety to beat good teams, but We are losing to teams with less talent. Why? because Lovie is not a good coach. That’s the bottom line and if you don’t see that you never will. He wasn’t fired after 10-6 in Chi town for being good! Oh and hiring a defensive coordinator Drdneast? Brilliant! He has a coordinator that had the Bucs playing much better last year down the stretch! Lovie in his infinite wisdom chose to not use A defensive coordinator because he’s so much better and such a great game manager. Lol. He’s a joke. The numbers garbage QBs put up is a insane! His mentality of sitting back and pray you get a turnover is idiotic! Lots of games you can punch at balls etc and you will not get one. Scott your right the decision to punt the ball after the Saints moved it all day at will was the dumbest thing I’ve seen in long time. Agee with others about Evans and Jenkins also. 2 of the most annoying childish players I’ve seen. One is a china doll too and the other drops balls every game and whines for flags like a little girl. Grow up! Dungy was overly conservative at times, but the players listened to him and respected him enough to not lead the league in penalties year after year. My friends in Chicago told me when we signed Lovie you will be sorry. I told them they were nuts and spoiled. A super bowl appearance and 10-6 year and fire him? It’s all very clear now and I owe them a big apology they were right! This team improved this year in spite of Lovie not because of him. largely because of Winston,Martin, Koetter. Firing coaches frequently sucks. Glazers have made some bad decisions. Now we are stuck with Lovie because of the carousel last few years. I also would take Fisher in a second over Lovie. You can’t win without a QB in this league anymore Scott. He hasn’t found one yet. You of all people know that with Bucs history. Rams are lot closer than Bucs to being a contender for sure and Fisher isn’t the problem IMO.
Fred….my thoughts exactly !!!
I wonder Scott, have the players tuned Lovie out? I ask becasue week after week after WEEK we hear Lovie say the Bucs are going to clean up the penalties and mental mistakes. But they boviously have not and it has cost the team dearly. Set to make a run at the playoffs and either in front of a large home pro Buccaneer crowd or on national TV they fell flat. The disturbing mental mistakes and penalties at the WORST of time continue and have, IMO, cost the Buccaneers a winning season. Either the players are not paying ANY attention to the coaches when it comes to stupid, selfish penalties or concentrating on each play to be where they are supposed to be or catching the damn ball OR they KNOW there will be no consequences. WHAT is going on? Because if the players have tuned him out, it’s over IMO.
I’ve said this before, but I’ll say it again. SR is the ONLY journalist covering the team that isn’t afraid to say the Emperor isn’t wearing any clothes. He’s more interested in telling it like it is rather than being liked by Lovie, his coaches or the players – unlike that jock sniffer Rick Stroud and others. Thank God for PR or we would have to endure more of that “Lovie knows what he’s doing” drivel from the other reporters. Keep telling it like it is, Scott. It’s refreshing!
If these bum ass no account LOSING players have tuned Lovie out, then send those no account LOSING players out the door. No one with the exception of 2 offensive lineman have won squat the professional level.
It’s just too bad there are few sure things when it comes to the Draft and hiring head coaches. If someone could guarantee the Glazers that sending Lovie back to his basement and hiring the latest hot candidate they would do it and all of us would applaud the move.
There’s virtually no one who could be pleased with the showing Lovie’s defense has put on display the past two seasons. In my mind, the pass defense is the worst I’ve witnessed in quite a while. Totally unprepared at times and totally uninspired at others. I can acknowledge the personnel shortcomings for which Lovie shares the blame. But what disturbs me the most are the failed attempts to bring in veterans, who supposedly know the system, but suck worse than their predecessors. That’s squarely on Lovie and his secondary coaches.
The Glazer boys have fired coaches who had better results than this one. If this team finishes this 4th quarter of the season the way it has finished the games that got away this season; Lovie might just be headed back to Big Sandy.
But please, no retreads.
I am going to say something that is going to be regarded as heresy in this town. Lovie is no Dungy, but then Dungy, in spite of having Super Bowl Teams for over a decade, only won one title. Dungy himself was not the kind of Coach that can will his teams to get over the hump. Excellent coach, but won only because he played against Lovie who is even more mellow than himself.
At times I felt Lovie should go. However, there’s something to be said for the importance of stability. Too many are quick to want to annoint the next “Great Coach” Last I checked the majority of the playoff coaches are either well experienced or inherited a near full cupboard. Everyone here thinks Fisher outcoached Lovie, anyone check how many 1st round picks Rams have on both sides of the ball yet theyre no closer to playoffs than Buccs. Patience is the key! Most of your good teams are more about the ciaching STAFF than the Head Coach. Leave Koetter where he is, OC. Hardy has dine a very good job with LBs, just need more depth. This team is one more good draft and off season away from being what MIN is right now, a legit Wild Card team thats young and growing. MIN defense and are a year ahead of TB
Kudos to Scott Reynolds–great analysis, particularly regarding Lovie Smith.
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