It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

Tampa Bay got another road win at Atlanta, 30-17, to improve to 9-3 overall. The Bucs swept the Falcons for a second straight year thanks to another big game from quarterback Tom Brady, who passed for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. Speaking of big games, wide receiver Chris Godwin had a franchise-record 15 catches for 143 yards, while Tampa Bay’s defense came up big with five sacks. Defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea collected two sacks apiece.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Brady, Bucs Own The Falcons

There was a time when the Falcons absolutely owned the Bucs. Atlanta won five straight games, starting with the second meeting in the 2016 season through the 2018 season. The Falcons swept the Bucs in 2017 and ’18, before Bruce Arians arrived in 2019 and won the first meeting, 35-22, in Atlanta. The Bucs choked in overtime when Jameis Winston threw a pick-six in the 2019 finale – his 30th interception of the season. That mistake helped usher in the Tom Brady era the next year.

Since then the tables have turned. It’s been four straight wins for the Bucs, including Sunday’s 30-17 victory. Arians has now won 5-of-6 against Atlanta, and Brady has helped account for the last four.

Brady is the ultimate Falcons killer, and after Sunday’s 30-17 win he’s now a perfect 10-0 against Atlanta in his career, including the postseason. Only two other quarterbacks have ever won 10 straight games over another franchise without a loss.

Brady was masterful in Sunday’s win, passing for 368 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.

In his career, Brady has completed 68.5 percent of passes for 2,875 yards – an average of 319.4 yards per game – against the Falcons with 26 touchdowns and just three picks. Remarkably dominant statistics.

With Brady, the Bucs have beaten the Falcons by the combined score of 153-96.

12/20/2020 – Bucs win 31-27
1/3/2020 – Bucs win 44-27
9/19/2021 – Bucs win 48-25
12/05/2021 – Bucs win 30-17

The average score in games between the Brady-led Bucs and the Falcons is 38-24. Tampa Bay has scored at least 30 points in the last four games versus Atlanta. It hasn’t been close, folks.

Tampa Bay was 46-12 when scoring 30 from 2000-19. But the Bucs are a perfect 19-0 when scoring 30 points with Brady at the helm over the last two seasons.

In just one and a half seasons in Tampa Bay, Brady, who has 74 touchdown passes, has already passed Doug Williams (73, 1978-82) and moved into fourth on the franchise passing touchdown record list. Up next is Vinny Testaverde (77, 1987-92), followed by Josh Freeman (80, 2009-13).

With 34 touchdowns on the season, Brady has now had the most TDs (40, 2020) and second-most TDs (34, 2021) in a season in Tampa Bay history. He’s on pace to throw 48 touchdowns this year, which would smash the record he set last year and give him 88 in two seasons in red and pewter.

Brady’s career high was 50 TD passes in the 2007 season in New England, and beating that mark is still attainable if he can increase his average from 2.8 touchdowns per game to 3.3 over the last five games. If Brady can finish with between 48-50 TDs this season, another 40-touchdown season in 2022 would allow him to surpass Winston (121, 2015-19) and move into first place as Tampa Bay’s all-time passing TD producer.

With 3,771 passing yards through 12 games, Brady is on pace to throw for 5,342 yards, which would surpass Winston’s Bucs single-season passing record of 5,109 set in 2019.

Brady is the catalyst to not only winning Super Bowl LV last year, but Tampa Bay cruising to a four-game lead in the NFC South with five games left in this season. The Bucs won’t be able to sweep the Saints this year, but they can avenge their Week 8 loss in two weeks on Sunday Night Football – and claim the NFC South crown from New Orleans in the process.

STATEMENT 2: Godwin Is Playing Like A Franchise Player

When Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin cashes in with a new long-time contract extension in the offseason worth at least $16 million per year, he should slip offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and quarterback Tom Brady some twenties (not that they need it).

Or hire Bruce Arians as his agent.

Godwin had a signature game on Sunday in Atlanta, catching a franchise-record 15 passes for 143 yards. Godwin wasn’t featured on offense – he was showcased.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

While Mike Evans is the greatest offensive weapon in franchise history and a vital cog in Tampa Bay’s passing game, evidenced by seven catches for 99 yards in Atlanta, the Bucs offense goes through Godwin. He plays the most important role in Arians’ offense – the Larry Fitzgerald role as the slot receiver.

“Chris, he is what he is – great player, one of the best in the league,” Arians said. “That’s what he’s always been. He has the ability to play outside also, but he is lethal inside. Obviously, the way he blocks is huge and gives you so much in between the numbers.”

Godwin leads the Bucs with 82 catches for 949 yards (11.6 avg.) with five touchdowns and a rushing score. Evans is second on the team with 57 receptions for 794 yards (13.9) and nine TDs. That’s 25 more catches for 155 more yards for Godwin so far this season.

He’s on pace to surpass his own career Pro Bowl year in 2019 where he finished with 86 catches for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns. After an injury-riddled season last year in which Godwin caught just 65 passes for 840 yards and seven TDs in 12 regular games, the Bucs wanted to see if Godwin could deliver another 1,000-yard season before locking him up to a long-term deal.

There’s a difference between being a really good 800-yard receiver in the NFL, and being a 1,000-yard star receiver. Godwin has not only shown he’s a star in his fifth season in Tampa Bay, the former third round pick has shown he’s been worth every penny of his $15.93 million one-year contract as the Bucs’ franchise player.

And then some.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Are We Seeing Vea The Pass Rusher Emerge?

Let’s hope so. Vita Vea, who is in his fourth season, and will be playing on his fifth-year option in 2022, had his first two-sack day against the Falcons in the Bucs’ 30-17 win in Atlanta. With Vea posting only half a sack in back-to-back games against Miami and Philadelphia, his pass rush game needed to step up this year.

Vea has now matched his career high for sacks in a season with three, and there are five games left for him to set a new mark. The team’s 2018 first-round pick is set to cash in on a big contract extension in 2023. Big run-stuffing defensive tackles are valuable. Big run-stuffing defensive tackles that can also rush the passer and produce sacks like Vea did twice in Atlanta are invaluable.

Bucs DTs Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea – Photo by: USA Today

If Vea can transition from being a three-sack defender to a player that can produce five-to-seven sacks per season, that’s a game-changer. And not only for his wallet – but for Tampa Bay’s defense moving forward.

Vea and fellow defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh each had two sacks on Sunday against the Falcons, which pleased head coach Bruce Arians.

“I thought the inside games were really good, especially when the linebackers were hitting gaps and opening those guys up, but they both got some on their own, too,” Arians said. “When we can get that internal pressure, it’s tough to block those guys.”

Both of Vea’s sacks and one of Suh’s came at the expense of Falcons rookie left guard Jalen Mayfield, who is just awful. Atlanta’s third-round pick has now surrendered 10 sacks in 12 games this year.

The next step for Vea will be to have back-to-back games with sacks and prove he can whip someone other than a terrible rookie to get the quarterback on the ground.

QUESTION 2: Is Tampa Bay’s O-Line Getting Enough Credit?

No, absolutely not. There is a chance that not one of the Bucs offensive linemen will make the Pro Bowl this year despite stellar play. Tampa Bay has four offensive linemen playing at a legitimate Pro Bowl level in tackles Donovan Smith and Tristan Wirfs, guard Ali Marpet and center Ryan Jensen. Right guard Alex Cappa is no slouch either, and is playing well in his contract year.

Bucs QB Tom Brady, RG Alex Cappa and C Ryan Jensen – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs held the Falcons without sack, marking the sixth time this year they have not allowed Tom Brady to be sacked, including three of the last four games.

“The protection was incredible,” Brady said. “The offensive line has been great all season and we have thrown the ball more than anybody and given up the least amount of sacks. I think everyone has a lot of trust in our protection. They did a great job for the running game. Our best football is ahead of us and we’re in a decent position, 9-3, going home for the biggest game of our year against the Bills.”

Brady threw the ball 51 times and completed 38 passes for 368 yards with four touchdowns and an interception due to tremendous pass protection. It’s one thing to pitch a shutout when a quarterback throws the ball 35 times. It’s another when the QB slings it over 50. Brady only got hit once during the entire game.

Dating back to last year, Tampa Bay’s offensive line has not allowed a sack in 10 games, which is the most in the NFL. The Bucs amassed 425 yards and put up 30 points for the 19th time since the start of the 2020 season – and the O-line is a huge reason why.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Tampa Bay Won’t Lose Again

The Bucs will beat the Bills, who are coming off a 14-10 loss at home to the Patriots on Monday Night Football, next Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. In fact, Tampa Bay will finish the season with a perfect home record for the first time in franchise history. That means future wins against New Orleans and Carolina are on deck, too.

Plus, with the Bucs reasserting themselves as road warriors with two good back-to-back wins at Indianapolis and at Atlanta, it’s looking like a 14-3 finish for Tampa Bay. That means two more road wins are coming up at Carolina and at New York against the Jets. So the Bucs would finish 8-0 at home and 6-3 on the road if this prediction holds true.

PREDICTION 2: Brown Won’t Get Cut

Bucs WR Antonio Brown – Photo by: USA Today

There was a report on ProFootballTalk.com suggesting the Bucs were considering cutting wide receiver Antonio Brown over his false COVID vaccination status flap. Don’t believe it. We’ve heard the exact opposite. Once Brown serves his final two-game suspension and his heel is fully healthy he will continue to suit up in red and pewter – as long as nothing else happens this year.

Brown could be/should be back by the Bucs game at Carolina on December 26. What national media outlets may not understand is that Brown was originally signed to be an insurance policy at the receiver position. Nothing more. He’s a mercenary – a hired gun. The Bucs didn’t sign him to be part of the community or start a foundation. They have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for that.

Brown’s job is to catch passes and win games. He’ll resume that role for the rest of the season and then the Bucs will reassess things next year when Brown is 35 and the team examines his potential fit on the roster and within the salary cap structure.