Tampa Bay scored a huge, 19-17 upset on the road in Kansas City against a Chiefs team that was 7-2 prior to Sunday. Dirk Koetter’s Buccaneers have now won back-to-back games and evened their record at 5-5. Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston, kicker Roberto Aguayo and safety Chris Conte were among the heroes in a season-defining win that puts Tampa Bay’s road record at an impressive 4-1.

It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

TWO BIG STATEMENTS
STATEMENT 1. PROGRESS IS BEING MADE IN TAMPA BAY UNDER KOETTER
Here we are again. The Buccaneers are at .500 with a looming home game against a formidable foe and have a chance at a winning record for the first time since Week 1 after winning at Atlanta 31-24. The last time this occurred was three weeks ago when Tampa Bay was 3-3 and lost at home in overtime to an Oakland team that’s now 7-2. Of course, the Bucs were also 1-1 in Week 3 before a close loss against Los Angeles, who is now 4-6, but this is different.

After a 36-10 blowout victory over a downtrodden Chicago squad, Tampa Bay scored a huge upset, 19-17, on the road against a Kansas City team that was 7-2 and had won five straight entering Sunday’s contest. This was a huge, quality win for the Bucs against another playoff-caliber team like Atlanta.

“Today we were a really good football team,” Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter said. “Today we played well in all phases, defense minus a few plays, played really strong. [On] offense we had good mix, special teams held up their end. This is a very tough, a team that’s won 17 of I think their last 19 games and shoot I’m proud of these guys for the way we came in here, awesome atmosphere, always an awesome place to play here at Arrowhead and we played good football today.”

In two years under Lovie Smith, Tampa Bay won eight games, including just one quality win over a playoff team, which was a 27-24 upset in Pittsburgh. Koetter, in his first year as an NFL head coach, has already beaten two teams with winning records this year – and on the road – in Atlanta and Kansas City through just 10 games.

Another opportunity awaits this Sunday at home against Seattle, which is 7-2-1 this year. With six games left against Seattle, at San Diego, New Orleans, at Dallas, at New Orleans and home against Carolina, it’s not out of the question that the Bucs could finish 7-9 or better, which would represent progress over last year’s underwhelming 6-10 record in Smith’s last year.

With the 5-5 Bucs trailing the 6-4 Falcons but just one game, Tampa Bay is still very much alive for the playoffs. That’s the message Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston delivered to his team after practice on Wednesday when he read a handwritten note aloud to his teammates.

“Jameis came to me last Saturday night – a week ago Saturday night before the Chicago game and had his letter written on a notepad, and asked me,” Koetter said. “I thought he was talking about doing it for the Chicago game, and he said, ‘No, Coach. After we beat Chicago, I want to do it on Wednesday of Kansas City week.’ I said, ‘Yeah, of course. That’s fantastic.’ It was a fantastic letter. He read it to the guys on Wednesday after practice. He just reminded them about it in there. Jameis is a special guy.”

And the way Koetter’s efficient offense performed in Kansas City, outgaining the Chiefs 442-343 and converting 11-of-16 (69 percent) on third downs, while controlling the clock 35:18 to 24:42, he’s becoming a special coach and offensive coordinator.

STATEMENT 2: WINSTON, AGUAYO WON THIS GAME FOR THE BUCS
Perhaps it was hearing the Chief Osceola War Chant that Florida State Seminoles fans do at Doak Campbell Stadium that is mimicked by Kansas City Chiefs fans on third and fourth down, but former FSU greats Winston and rookie kicker Roberto Aguayo played inspired football on Sunday at Arrowhead.

“Man the crowd noise was amazing,” Winston said. “Every third down they did an O-chant and I was so pumped up, it really made me feel at home. I love playing here. Every time I get the chance to hit an O-chant, I was even doing it with the fans at the beginning of the game.”

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

Winston was masterful on third down with his biggest pass of the day being a 14-yard pass to Mike Evans on third-and-3 that picked up a key first down and allowed Tampa Bay to run a good deal of time off the clock and preserve the win. Winston finished the day completing 24-of-39 passes for 331 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, although he did have one fumble.

“The way he controlled the game today, other than a very brief stint at the start of the third quarter, he was as accurate as I’d seen him, made great decisions and took care of the football,” Koetter said. “He played really good today.”

Aguayo wasn’t really good on Sunday, he was perfect, and the Bucs needed all four of his field goals and his extra point to come out ahead, 19-17, in Kansas City.

“We couldn’t punch it in,” Koetter said. “These guys are really tough in the red zone. They’re tough to score on. It’s not like we were doing anything wrong, no one is scoring points on these guys. We had a couple things we thought we could take advantage of, but they shut us down. We needed all those field goals.”

Aguayo is now 13-of-18 on field goals (72.2 percent) his four field goals made on Sunday at Kansas City is a new career high. Aguayo has connected on 10-of-11 (90.9 percent) of his field goals since nailing the game-winner at Carolina. And he’s hit on eight of his last nine extra points and has been perfect the last three games with seven consecutive makes. The once criticized Aguayo is 20-of-22 (90.9 percent) on extra points this season.

Consider general manager Jason Licht, the man who stuck his neck out to trade up and draft a kicker in the second round, a very happy man today – along with the rest of Pewter Nation.

TWO PROBING QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1: DO OPINIONS CHANGE ABOUT CONTE AT ONE BUC PLACE?
The Bucs’ front office re-signed free agent safety Chris Conte to a one-year deal for a reason. Tampa Bay wanted him back because of his size, coverage ability and football I.Q., but uneven play last season prompted the Bucs to give him a one-year, prove-it deal. The Bucs wanted to find out if Conte could thrive in Mike Smith’s defensive scheme before committing to him with a long-term deal. Conte had only played in Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 scheme throughout his career.

It has taken awhile for Conte and his teammates to come around in Mike Smith’s defense, but the safety has made strides and has had huge interceptions in back-to-back victories. Conte recorded a pick-six against his former team, Chicago, that got the Bucs off to a 7-0 start in a huge, 36-10 victory last week. Against the Chiefs, Conte had a big fourth quarter interception in the end zone that he returned 53 yards to set up the Bucs’ only touchdown of the day.

Bucs S Chris Conte – Photo by: Getty Images

Conte did give up a touchdown to Kansas City receiver Albert Wilson in the fourth quarter, but that was mostly due to an ill-time blitz call by Smith, who called for nickel cornerback Jude Adjei-Barimah to blitz, forcing Conte to switch to man coverage on Wilson. Conte was in a trail position from the start of the play, and had no chance to defend Wilson, who was running an out route to the side of the end zone.

Conte will be 28 in February, and if he finishes the season strong he deserves a contract extension and the right to challenge for a starting safety spot next year. Yes, the Bucs should draft a safety in 2017, but why not bring Conte back for competition if he ends his first year in Smith’s defense on a high note. For the year, Conte has 58 tackles, four pass breakups, two interceptions and one fumble recovery and is coming off a season in which he posted 79 stops, six pass breakups, two interceptions and two forced fumbles in 2015.

QUESTION 2: WHERE WAS McCOY ON SUNDAY?
Although he finished with zero tackles and was double-teamed all day by the Chiefs offensive line, Bucs Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy had a hand in both of Tampa Bay’s takeaways – literally. McCoy got his hand up and deflected Alex Smith’s pass into the end zone that Conte was able to pick off and return 53 yards to set up the Bucs’ touchdown drive in the fourth quarter to seal Tampa Bay’s victory.

And when the Chiefs tried their desperation laterals on the game’s final play, it was McCoy that pounced on the loose ball and recovered the fumble for the Bucs. For those quick to look at the stat sheet to see which Bucs played well, the stat sheet doesn’t always tell the story. Sometimes a player can have 14 tackles and give up several big plays. Other times, a player like McCoy can have zero tackles as he was constantly blocked with two offensive linemen and still make a few huge plays when it counts.

TWO BOLD PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1: MARTIN RUSHES FOR 100 YARDS AGAINST SEAHAWKS
A week after I called Tampa Bay’s upset over Kansas City, I’m not ready to predict a Bucs win over the Seahawks just yet (although I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen, especially without rookie running back C.J. Prosise). Stay tuned for our Pewter Predictions story on Saturday to see how I forecast the game. But what I can predict is that Doug Martin will go over 100 yards rushing against Seattle on Sunday.

Bucs RB Doug Martin – Photo by: Getty Images

The Seahawks gave up 113 yards on 26 carries (4.3 avg.) to the Eagles on Sunday, including two 18-yard runs, and although Bucs running back Doug Martin ran for just 63 yards and averaged 2.4 yards per carry against the Chiefs, he had a 12-yard run and looked electric on a 27-yard screen pass. Martin hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since November 22 when he rushed for 235 yards at Philadelphia. If left guard Kevin Pamphile returns from his concussion this week Martin tops the century mark for the first time in over a year.

PREDICTION 2: THE BUCS AT COWBOYS GAME GETS FLEXED TO SNF
If Tampa Bay can win at least two out of its next three games (vs. Seattle, at San Diego, vs. New Orleans), don’t be surprised to see its 1:00 p.m. ET game at Dallas on December 18 get flexed to Sunday Night Football. The Bucs could be 7-6 or 8-5 if they continue their winning ways, and that would be a much more intriguing matchup against a Cowboys team with the league’s best record right now at 9-1.

The NFL would rather pit two hot, young quarterbacks in Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott, two hot, young wide receivers in Mike Evans and Dez Bryant, along with running backs Doug Martin and Ezekiel Elliot in prime time against each other rather than the scheduled match-up of Pittsburgh at Cincinnati on December 18. The Steelers are currently 5-5 and the Bengals are 3-6-1 and are without Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green for the rest of the year.