It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay lost a fourth quarter lead and fell to Atlanta, 28-22, with quarterback Jameis Winston throwing a pick-six on the first play of overtime to drop the Bucs to 7-9. That was Winston’s league-high 30th interception of the season, and as a result, the Bucs finished third place in the NFC South and will pick 14th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft.

TWO BOLD STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Winston’s Season Couldn’t Have Ended Worse

Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston’s first pass was a pick-six, and his last pass in Tampa Bay might have been a pick-six, too.

After throwing two pick-sixes in a season-opening loss at home to San Francisco, Winston threw another pick-six – his seventh of the year, which has to be an NFL record – on the first play of overtime that gave the Falcons a 28-22 win in a season-ending loss at home for Tampa Bay, which finished 7-9 on the season and in third place in the NFC South.

Winston couldn’t have left a worse impression in the minds of the Bucs’ brass with that final pick-six, even though his pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Regardless of whether the ball was tipped or not, Bucs head coach Bruce Arian said that Winston made a bad decision to throw the ball to Cameron Brate, which led to the pick-six by Falcons linebacker Deion Jones.

Falcons LB Deion Jones – Photo by: Getty Images

“It sure looked like it,” Arians said. “He was covered. He went to his favorite guy, but he was covered.”

Arians indicated that there wasn’t a worse way for the Bucs to end the season than with Winston’s pick-six in overtime.

“It smells as bad as it could possibly smell, and it will smell that way for a long time,” Arians said. “That’s the thing, there’s so much good. There’s so much good and there’s so much outright terrible. So, we have to weigh that and see what happens.”

On the day that Winston became the franchise’s first 5,000-yard passer – one of only eight NFL QBs to accomplish that feat – he also became the first quarterback in league history to throw for 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions.

Ouch.

There was plenty of debate about whether to draft Winston or Marcus Mariota with the first overall pick in 2015. Five years later after zero playoff appearances and four losing seasons with Winston at the helm, the debate continues to rage on.

Should the Bucs keep him? Should the team use the franchise tag on him?

Oh the irony of using the franchise tag on a player like Winston, who yet to prove he’s a franchise quarterback after five years.

How much faith should this team have in him?

Through five years Winston has been the ultimate tease with plenty of 300-yard games along with plenty of touchdowns and plenty of interceptions. His 33 touchdown passes were three scores behind Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson’s 36, but Winston’s 30 interceptions were nine more than Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield’s 21.

Does the good actually outweigh the bad?

“We’ll just go back and look at the entire season like we do with everybody and [see] how many [interceptions] were him and how many were somebody else,” Arians said. “There’s a lot more that goes into it than interceptions. But, it will be a full evaluation like we do everyone.”

What’s the plan to replace Winston if the organization wants to move on? Will the Bucs consider other options in free agency and the draft before deciding whether or not to have Winston return in 2020? It sure sounded like it after the game.

“That will be a huge part of it,” Arians said.

When asked if Winston’s penchant for throwing interceptions can be corrected, Arians was non-committal.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

“That’s one of the things I’m going to have to evaluate,” Arians said.

After the game, the usually humble Winston was actually a bit defiant in the face of the media, which struck a different chord than usual – and not necessarily in a bad way.

“I’m focused on how I can get better, because I know if I eliminate those I’m going to be the best – so, that’s bar none,” Winston said. “You better check your sheet. I eliminate those I’m going to be the best.”

Winston was the best in terms of passing yards this season, finishing with a career-best 5,109 passing yards. When pressed on what he has to fix next year, Winston grew slightly agitated.

“We all know, come on,” Winston said. “I guess, we know what we have to fix. There’s no reason to be specific. If you look at my numbers, I’m balling. I’ve got to stop giving the ball to the other team. That’s not a trick question.

“You just go to the drawing board and find a way. I really don’t know. Some crazy stuff has been happening. I’ve got to get better. I just got to fix it. I threw a lot of touchdowns here too and for a lot of yards. So, I just know what I got to fix and I will.”

When asked if he wanted to return to Tampa Bay in 2020, Winston didn’t hesitate.

“Yeah, absolutely, but it’s not my decision,” Winston said.

Winston’s right. The Bucs will decide if 25-year old passer will return as Tampa Bay’s quarterback next year and there is an awfully lot to consider.

Unfortunately for Winston and the franchise, the way Sunday’s game ended in tragic fashion only made the situation more complicated.

STATEMENT 2: This Bucs Defense Is Playoff-Ready

If general manager Jason Licht and director of football administration Mike Greenberg can re-sign some key impact players this offseason, and if defensive coordinator Todd Bowles returns to Tampa Bay – two big ifs – there is no reason to think that the Bucs defense won’t be a playoff-caliber squad in 2020.

During the Bucs’ 5-3 run to end the season, Tampa Bay’s defense surrendered just 21.25 points per game when you remove the four pick-sixes Winston threw in those games. That would give the Bucs the league’s 13th-ranked defense over the second half of the season.

Sunday’s season finale featured a lot of defensive superlatives, starting with Bucs linebacker and team captain Lavonte David notching six tackles on Sunday against the Falcons, which allowed him to top the 1,000 career tackle mark, becoming only the fourth player in Tampa Bay history to reach that milestone, joining Hardy Nickerson (1,028), Ronde Barber (1,428) and Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks (2,198) in that select club.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

David wasn’t the only Buccaneer that made history in the loss to the Falcons. Outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett finished as the league’s leading sacker with three sacks of Matt Ryan, which gave him 19.5 on the year. Barrett entered the game tied with Warren Sapp for the single-season franchise record and smashed it.

Tampa Bay inside linebacker Devin White continued put an exclamation point on a tremendous rookie season after recovering a Matt Ryan fumble and returning it 91 yards for a touchdown to give Tampa Bay a 14-13 lead in the second quarter. For White, it was his fourth fumble recovery of the season and his second scoop-and-score of the year.

That fumble recovery came after outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul sacked Ryan to knock the ball loose. Pierre-Paul had two sacks on Sunday a week after recording three against Houston, and finished the year with 8.5 in 10 games after missing the first six games while recovering from an offseason neck injury.

Nose tackle Vita Vea recorded the Bucs’ other sack on the day, which gave him 2.5 on the year and Tampa Bay six against Atlanta on Sunday. The rise of the Bucs defense, which has featured stronger play from a very young secondary down the stretch, may give the Bucs some pause when it comes to wanting to bring back Winston in 2020.

Would a more conservative quarterback that is less turnover prone be a better fit to pair with a better Bucs defense next year, or can the organization trust that Winston’s number of turnovers will be reduced in his second year with Bruce Arians? The Bucs’ brass will be pondering those scenarios this offseason.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Are The Bucs In Any Hurry To Make A Decision On Winston’s Future?

No, not at all. And why should they be? Tampa Bay holds all the cards with quarterback Jameis Winston because the team can use the franchise tag on him to keep him if it wants to.

According to Bucs head coach Bruce Arians, Winston’s two-interception performance on Sunday against Atlanta complicates the Bucs’ big offseason decision.

“Well, it doesn’t help – that’s for sure,” Arians said. “There are a lot of great things. We ran a great two-minute drive before the half. There’s a lot of things to evaluate and we will take our time and evaluate it.”

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Arians made it clear that the Bucs’ brass, which certainly includes general manager Jason Licht, the man who drafted Winston, will be in no rush to come to a decision on what to do with him in terms of his contract situation or if Tampa Bay might pursue a different a quarterback altogether. One thing that was clear was that the amount of turnovers Winston and the Bucs had this year won’t be tolerated next year.

“No, because you’re not going anywhere,” Arians said. “You’re going home. You’re going home when you lead the league in giveaways. You’re never going to play in the playoffs unless you’re playing for the Steelers in the ‘70s.

“An overtime loss; giving the ball away for a touchdown – I can’t think of anything worse.”

QUESTION 2: What The Heck Happened To Gay On Sunday?

Jameis Winston wasn’t the only Buccaneer to end the season in horrific fashion on Sunday. Rookie kicker Matt Gay had the worst game of his young career with three missed field goals. Gay entered the season finale connecting on 84.3 percent of his field goals, but failed to hit from 49 yards in the first quarter, and from 44 and 34 yards in the third quarter. That caused his field goal percentage to plummet to 77.1 percent on the year.

All three field goal misses came when Gay was kicking into the south end of the stadium where he missed a potential 34-yard game-winner against the New York Giants earlier in the year. If Gay makes any one of those field goals the Bucs win the game – and Winston doesn’t throw a fatal pick-six in overtime.

Bucs K Matt Gay – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“Just one bad snap,” Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. “One right and one left, all at that same end. It’s been a struggle for him all year – that end. He’ll spend a lot of time next training camp in that end, I can promise you.”

Gay was beside himself after the game – with a mixture of anger, sadness and disbelief on his face as he met with the media.

“I don’t think there’s an issue – a curse on that side of the stadium,” Gay said. “It doesn’t matter where you’re kicking. Some guys have to kick in snow in Buffalo. You have to kick in Chicago.”

The Bucs still believe in Gay, but might bring a kicker into training camp to challenge him next summer. Gay said he will spend plenty of time in the offseason kicking in the south end of Raymond James Stadium where the wind can be unpredictable and can swirl at a moment’s notice.

“It’s a tough way to end the season,” Gay said. “There were some ups and downs, but I felt like I had a good year. And then to go out like that – it’s frustrating. It just kind of leaves you thinking about it. If that happens earlier in the year, you’re like, ‘Okay, it’s a solid year.’ It lights a fire.”

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Barrett Will Get A Long-Term Contract Extension

Tampa Bay outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett capped a surprise storybook season with the Bucs this season when he became the franchise’s all-time leading sacker in a single season with 19.5. Barrett entered the day tied with legendary Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp with 16.5 sacks, and corralled Matt Ryan in the second quarter for sack number 17.5. He added two more in the fourth quarter to bring his total to a league-leading 19.5.

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

All season long, Barrett has showed a tremendous amount of appreciation towards the Bucs organization for giving him an opportunity in free agency with a one-year, $4 million deal. The team doesn’t want to use the franchise tag on Barrett and save it for Winston.

Chicago’s Khalil Mack is the highest-paid edge rusher, making an average of $23.5 million per year. There are two other edge rushers – Dallas’ DeMarcus Lawrence and Kansas City’s Frank Clark – that make an average of over $20 million per year. Barrett should fetch a long-term deal that averages north of $17 million per year. He deserves it.

PREDICTION 2: Winston Will Get The Franchise Tag

The Buccaneers have not entered contract negotiations with quarterback Jameis Winston yet, and won’t for the next few weeks until the team finishes the evaluation of the 2019 season. That’s a fact.

It doesn’t matter what Winston’s camp allegedly wants in terms of average per year – whether it’s just under or over $30 million. The Bucs are in control because they have the use of the franchise tag.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Winston, who was the team’s first-round pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, became just the eighth quarterback in NFL history – and the first in Bucs history – to surpass 5,000 yards in a single season. Winston also broke his own franchise record for touchdown passes this season and finished the year with 33.

Winston will undoubtedly want to make more than the $20.92 million Tampa Bay paid him during his fifth-year option season in 2019, and the Bucs will have to pay him more than that either with a long-term or short-term contract extension – or with the franchise tag, which will be around $27 million. The prediction here is that Winston will get the franchise tag due to his league-leading interceptions – whether he likes it or not. That’s really the Bucs’ only option given his penchant for turning the ball over.