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About the Author: Scott Reynolds

Avatar Of Scott Reynolds
Scott Reynolds is in his 28th year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds spent six years giving back to the community as the defensive coordinator/defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: [email protected]

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Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter addressed the media to recap the 2017 season and look ahead to 2018, which will be a critical year for the embattled Koetter, who is coming off a disappointing 5-11 campaign in his second year at the helm in Tampa Bay. PewterReport.com’s Bucs beat writers were on hand to cover the press conference and ask questions.

Now it’s time to dissect Dirk, breaking down exactly what Koetter said in his press conference and ultimately went he meant when addressing the future of the Bucs in this week-long series of PR Analysis.

Koetter on remaining the play-caller in Tampa Bay:
“Yeah, that’s probably not going to happen (giving up play-calling duties). I should’ve never said that last year [laughs],” Koetter said. “I’m going to be the play caller.”

PewterReport.com analysis:
A quick look at Tampa Bay’s offensive stats reveals that Koetter’s offense finished 2017 ranked ninth in the NFL, averaging 363.5 yards per game. The Bucs had the fourth-ranked passing offense with 4,366 passing yards, averaging 272.9 yards per game, but had the league’s 27th-ranked rushing attack with just 1,450 yards, averaging 90.6 yards per game. Koetter’s offense could move the ball up and down the field, so generally play-calling wasn’t an issue in his mind.

And he’s right in that regards. Red zone play-calling is where the problem was, as Tampa Bay’s offense ranked 18th in the NFL in scoring, averaging just 20.9 points per game. That’s down slightly from 2016 when the Bucs averaged 22.1 points per game, which ranked 18th, when the team had fewer offensive weapons before the arrival of wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin, in addition to tight end O.J. Howard, the team’s first-round pick in 2017.

Bucs Head Coach Dirk Koetter - Photo By: Cliff Welch/Pr

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Despite a slew of injuries along the offensive line, at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, the offense improved in 2017 in terms of yards, gaining an average of nearly 20 more yards per game than it did last year, averaging 346.4 yards per game when Tampa Bay’s offense ranked 18th in 2016. The key for Koetter will be better play calls inside the red zone and better execution from the players with the end result being more touchdowns and fewer field goals.

Because he’s an offensive-minded head coach entering 2018 on the hot seat, Koetter’s fate will ultimately depend on his own game-day play sheets, especially those red zone calls. Bucs general manager Jason Licht has stocked the offense with plenty of weapons in the passing game for Jameis Winston, and will revamp the running game next year with a draft pick and perhaps a free agent signing to replace Doug Martin, Jacquizz Rodgers and maybe free agent-to-be Charles Sims.

Koetter’s offense has the potential to score at least 24 points per game and that’s what it will likely need to produce in order to save his job next year. In Koetter’s three years as the team’s play-caller, the Bucs have not averaged more than 22 points in any season. That has to change.

PewterReport.com suggested earlier in the year that Koetter turn play-calling duties over to offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach Todd Monken, but that didn’t happen and won’t happen now. Koetter will live or die by his own play calls, and it’s understandable that he wouldn’t want to put his fate in anyone else’s hands. Koetter is also emboldened by the fact that the Bucs could move the football at will, and that Winston was hurt for much of 2017 and is only 23. There’s no guarantee that anyone could call plays that would produce more points than Koetter, either.

But where the play-calling has been an issue over the last two years has been how it has affected his game management. That ultimately is where Koetter needs to improve the most – managing the flow of the game, the clock, the usage of timeouts and when to go for it on fourth down as opposed to punting the ball, especially on the opponents’ side of the 50-yard line.

PR Analysis: Will The Bucs Ultimately Make Coaching Changes?
Graphic By Scott Reynolds/PrBucs Mailbag: Keeping Koetter, Play Calling And Staff Changes
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