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FAB 1. Arians’ Biggest Mistake

I’ll admit that my biggest concern about 66-year old Bruce Arians coming out of retirement to coach Tampa Bay this year was that he would be another Sam Wyche or Lovie Smith – a former big-name head coach that had success elsewhere, but just couldn’t recreate the same magic with the Buccaneers.

I’ll also admit that I absolutely love Arians’ brash, tell-it-like-it-is, pull-no-punches style of old school coaching. I also love the veteran coaching staff he brought with him from Arizona to Tampa Bay.

I like Arians a lot and I’m rooting for the guy. I also have a lot of faith in his coaching staff, and have already seen it turn young players that were in danger of earning the bust label like running back Ronald Jones II or guard Alex Cappa into legit NFL players.

But I’m afraid Arians has made a few mistakes a long the way to the Bucs’ current 2-5 record. One of them was to proclaim that Tampa Bay’s secondary was fixed after the team drafted cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean and safety Mike Edwards in April.

I appreciate the bravado and the belief in cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles going to war with a bunch of rookies and second-year players in the secondary, but given that Tampa Bay has the worst-ranked pass defense and just three interceptions through seven games tells me it’s far from being fixed. And any reasonable, objective observer could have told you that the secondary wasn’t going to be fixed at the start of this year with such a young crew.

Arians should have said that “we’ve addressed the secondary in the draft” – not “fixed it.” Words matter.

Arians also went all-in on running back Peyton Barber and quarterback Jameis Winston – two key offensive players in contract years. Yes, Dare Ogunbowale impressed in the offseason and has shown flashes here and there, but Arians is fortunate that Jones has been developed, because Barber and his 3.3 yards per carry average have underwhelmed.

I really like Barber and his underdog story, but he’s not a dynamic back. Tampa Bay should have gotten another starting-caliber runner either in the draft or in free agency.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As for Winston, Arians brought in Blaine Gabbert as the backup, but only because Gabbert knows the system. He was never a threat to challenge Winston to be the starter at any point during training camp before Gabbert dislocated his shoulder.

I get it. After last year’s Ryan Fitzpatrick ordeal where Dirk Koetter waffled back and forth between Fitzpatrick and Winston at quarterback, the Bucs wanted to give Winston a year without looking over his shoulder – and a year with a head coach that was fully in his corner for a change – to see if Winston could be the long-term future at the QB position.

Through seven games, Winston hasn’t done much to repay the favor as he’s tied for the league lead in interceptions. The Titans’ trade for Ryan Tannehill is looking savvier by the minute.

But there is an even bigger mistake Arians made. One that I think could have helped Winston and the Bucs offense even more.

Arians turned the offensive play-calling duties over to Byron Leftwich, who was inexperienced. Leftwich took over as Arizona’s play-caller halfway through last year, but he was calling Mike McCoy’s plays – not Arians’ plays. So Leftwich was essentially starting over as a play-caller in Arians’ system this year.

From what I heard, the Glazers weren’t thrilled that Arians wasn’t going to be calling plays in Tampa Bay. After all, Arians is a gifted play-caller and the success he had doing that and grooming quarterbacks is what got him the head coaching job in Arizona in 2013.

Instead of getting Arians, the Bucs have gotten Arians Light – a watered down version of the guy in Arizona, who was joined at the hip with Carson Palmer from 2013-17. Arians interacts with Winston, but leaves a lot of the communication to quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen and Leftwich.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians and OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Winston has shown that he doesn’t need “the quarterback whisperer,” he needs “the quarterback screamer” – a guy telling him that if he has another London-esque game this year he’s done in Tampa Bay for good. A guy who can finally get through to Winston to tell him that his Superman complex that got him the Heisman Trophy at Florida State is actually derailing his NFL career.

Arians is not joined at the hip with Winston the way he was with Palmer in Arizona – and it’s showing, unfortunately.

If I’m the Glazers, I’m asking Arians two questions right now. First, is he a better play-caller than Leftwich? And second, if Arians believes he is (and that’s true), why isn’t he the one calling plays when the Bucs are at a critical part of the season at 2-5? A loss in Seattle and the Bucs are absolutely dead in the water at 2-6 with eight games remaining (if they aren’t already at 2-5).

Yes, the biggest mistake Arians made was not coming in the first year and calling the plays and having Leftwich shadow him in 2019 so that he could watch and learn from the maestro. Let Arians set the tone offensively in his first season in Tampa Bay, and work hands-on with Winston to try to revive his career and call the plays.

I bet the Bucs would rank better than 19th in red zone scoring efficiency (53.5 percent) behind the likes of the New York Jets and New York Giants if this was the case. Not only is red zone scoring down this year in Tampa Bay under Leftwich’s watch, but Winston’s completion percentage has plummeted by six points to 58.2 percent, and he’s throwing interceptions at a record pace, and the Bucs offense is on pace to surrender 64 sacks after giving up 41 a year ago.

Leftwich also can’t seem to get the ball to tight end O.J. Howard, a former first-round pick. Nor can he find a better role in the passing game for fellow tight end Cam Brate, who is making $7 million, and is often targeted fewer times than Tampa Bay’s third receiver, whether it be Breshad Perriman, Scotty Miller, or Bobo Wilson when he was on the team.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians and OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 15th in the league, averaging 370.7 yards per game, which is slightly down from a year ago, and ranks fifth in scoring at 28 points per game, which is slightly up from last year when the Bucs averaged 24.8 points per game.

There have been some positives under Leftwich’s guidance. The Bucs’ running game is slightly more productive, Winston has become a better deep ball thrower, Mike Evans is still thriving in Arians’ scheme, and Chris Godwin has emerged as a Pro Bowl-caliber player in the Larry Fitzgerald slot role.

But when I asked Leftwich to specifically name some positives in Thursday’s press conference, he couldn’t think of any of those legitimate improvements. And that really concerned me.

Instead he said this:

“As a whole, from the time we got here, from what we see right now – I see it as a whole,” Leftwich said. “Maybe the numbers don’t say that right now. We’ll add the numbers up at the end of the year and we’ll count them up and we’ll see, but it’s way too early for that. But, I see this crew getting better every day.”

Later on in the press conference, Leftwich added:

“I see the improvements,” Leftwich said. “Maybe you guys don’t – I see the improvements. I see the work that these guys are putting in to win football games, because ultimately, we’re trying to win football games. We’re not trying to really be better statistically at this just so the world can say this – we’re trying to leave a stadium with a win, and whatever that is that we’ve got to do, we’ve got to find ways to do that. That’s our only mindset.”

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: PewterRerport.com

Frankly speaking, Leftwich didn’t win the press conference. I was not impressed at all with his generic answers, especially coming off a game in which his quarterback had a snap bounce off his face mask, and had two receivers not correctly read coverages on their option routes that led to costly interceptions, and his QB forgot to motion a receiver on time near the goal line, which caused a Keystone Cops-style collision and a two-yard loss on third-and-goal.

I think Leftwich can be a good play-caller in time. His football I.Q. is supposedly quite good, he has the trust and experience of being on Arians’ staff before, and he has plenty of experience in Arians’ offense from his days as a quarterback in Pittsburgh.

It’s just that with 2019 being such a pivotal year for a Tampa Bay team that is still learning how to win, and for Winston, who is trying to prove his worth as the team’s long-term quarterback, the Bucs would have been better served with a full whiskey glass of Arians rather than a half pour.

That’s not to suggest that Arians is half-assing it because he’s not. Maybe he felt the need to delegate the play-calling duties for medical reasons to reduce his stress level at age 66, which if that’s the case, is somewhat understandable.

Bucs HC Bruce Arians – Photo By: Mary Holt/PR

I just have to think that if Arians was in full-on quarterback yeller mode with Winston, and attached at the hip with him like he was with Palmer in Arizona, there would be fewer turnovers and better red zone production. And if Arians was calling the plays this year with Leftwich watching and learning and preparing to take over in 2020, that Tampa Bay’s record would be better than 2-5 in that alternate universe.