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FAB 1. The Case For The Bucs Keeping Winston

There are three games left in Tampa Bay’s 2019 campaign. The Bucs will either finish the season 6-10, 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7.

The latter option sounds the best for everybody.

There also might be three games left in Jameis Winston’s five-year tenure in Tampa Bay. He will either receive a long-term contract extension, a one-year deal – likely the franchise tag – or the Bucs will move in a different direction at quarterback and let him test free agency.

After no playoffs and just one winning season at the helm, the latter option would sit well with a sizable contingent of restless Bucs fans.

Winston has a slight fracture in his right thumb, which is his throwing hand, that casts some doubt on whether or not he will be able to start – and perhaps finish – Sunday’s game at Detroit. Should Winston be able to play against Detroit, and assuming he doesn’t further injure his thumb in upcoming games against Houston and Atlanta, he’ll do so without his top weapon, Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans, which doesn’t aid his cause in terms of getting a contract extension from the Bucs.

One more hit on that right thumb could end Winston’s season with three games left and his five-year evaluation period, which featured 70 games he has played in, including 68 starts, would come to a close. In reality we’ve already seen enough of the 25-year old Winston to draw some conclusions about who he is as a quarterback, and whether or not he’s worth bringing back for another year – or more – in Tampa Bay.

So over the next two sections of SR’s Fab 5, I’ll lay out the case for and against Winston returning as Tampa Bay’s starter next year. You can read the pros and cons and come to your own conclusions, and I will provide my summary and recommendation at the end of Fab 2. Let me know if you agree or disagree in the article comments below.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

I’ll do my best to outline every positive I can think of in terms of what Winston brings to the Buccaneers. My analysis won’t heavily rely on statistics, as stats and analytics don’t always tell the story, and can often be manipulated and slanted to argue for or against a particular point of view.

Stats can also be heavily subjective. I will agree with Bucs head coach Bruce Arians that not all of Winston’s NFL-high 23 interceptions are his fault, yet how many interceptions did opposing defensive backs drop? Winston gets credit for his touchdown passes, but how many potential touchdowns have been dropped this year? And remember that Winston also gets credit for that fluky touchdown catch by Breshad Perriman in Seattle that should have been intercepted.

Bill Parcells said it best: you are what your record says you are. So we are going to count all of Winston’s stats on his football card – the good and bad – in this analysis and try to leave the excuses aside.

Time And Investment
The Bucs have the first overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft invested in Winston, in addition to the last five years of committing to him and his developmental time as the team’s starting quarterback. Winston signed a four-year, $23.35 million rookie deal with a $16.7 million signing bonus. Included in that contract was language that prevented him from playing baseball and solely committing to playing football. The Bucs picked up Winston’s fifth-year option this past offseason and paid him $20.922 million this year.

Parting ways with Winston now essentially flushes all of that developmental time and money down the drain, especially if Tampa Bay decides to start over with another quarterback drafted in the first round. Winston is only 25 and left for the NFL after only two years at Florida State. He’s far from being a finished product.

Leadership And Likability
Winston’s charisma and leadership has made him an extremely popular teammate. He always heaps praise on his teammates and is as humble as it comes when discussing his own exploits. Winston won the Bucs over during his rookie season, and has been named a team captain in 2016, 2017 and 2019. The only time aside from his rookie campaign that he has not been named a team captain was in 2018 when he was suspended for the first three games of the season and Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starter instead.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

It’s impossible to find a Buccaneer teammate that doesn’t like Winston and have his back. I’ve asked plenty of his teammates over the years on and off the record what they think of Winston, and I haven’t been able to find a discouraging word. Winston has universal support not just in the locker room, but also at One Buccaneer Place. Everyone, including Winston, would like to see fewer turnovers, but everyone has his back. And in my 24 years of covering this team, that hasn’t always been the case with quarterbacks in Tampa Bay.

Work Ethic And Dedication
Since being drafted by the Buccaneers, Winston has been the first one in team headquarters and the last one to leave. Coaches under both Dirk Koetter and Bruce Arians have had to kick him out of the building at times because he studies too much and studies too hard sometimes. Simply put, Winston is fully dedicated to being a successful NFL quarterback and is fully dedicated to Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers.

The NFL is a lot harder than college football and there are several quarterbacks in each year’s draft class that have the talent to play in the NFL, but lack the drive and work ethic to take their game to the next level and they flame as a result. From the likes of former first-round quarterbacks Jeff George to Matt Leinart to Jamarcus Russell to Josh Freeman to Jake Locker to Johnny Manziel, work ethic and dedication matter. Talent gets QBs into the league, but work ethic and dedication – like Winston has – is the key to success and longevity.

Starting QB Traits
At 6-foot-4, 240 pounds, Winston has the size, arm strength, mobility to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s proven that he can capably lead an NFL offense during his five years as an NFL starter and make all of the throws needed from the pocket or outside of the pocket. Not only does Winston have the physical capacity to play the position, he also has the mental make-up to be an NFL quarterback, too.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

NFL coaches and draft pundits raved about Winston’s football I.Q. during the 2015 pre-draft process, and don’t forget that Winston turned down a scholarship offer from an intellectual institution like Stanford to play at Florida State. Coaches and play-callers from both Koetter’s staff and Arians’ staff have raved about how bright Winston is when it comes to the X’s and O’s of football. While he’s still growing as a starting quarterback, Winston has accumulated five years worth of knowledge and experience from facing NFL defenses.

Great Fit For Arians’ System
Winston had a great deal of success at hitting intermediate passes at Florida State, and he has the arm strength to push the ball downfield in a vertical offense like the one he has been in in Tampa Bay under Koetter and Arians. Winston might be better served in a different offense that doesn’t have as many risky passes downfield that contribute to his high interception totals, but interceptions don’t seem to faze him due to Winston’s resiliency and gunslinger mentality. It also helps that Winston has become a more accurate downfield thrower this year.

In his first year in Arians’ scheme, Winston’s 61.3 percent completion percentage is in line with his career 61.5 percent number. Winston had a career-high 64.6 percent completion percentage last year in his fourth year in Koetter’s offense, and it would be safe to assume that his completion percentage has a good chance of increasing next season in his second year in Arians’ offense.

Play-making Ability & Production
Winston was named to the Pro Bowl during his rookie season and won the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Year honors in 2015, and winning NFC Offensive Player of the Week Awards in Week 1 of the 2016 season and Week 4 of the 2019 campaign because of his playmaking ability. Winston became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards in his first two seasons in the league and has already surpassed his single season franchise record of 4,090 yards this year (4,115) with three games left.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Winston has also thrown more touchdowns (114) than any other QB in Bucs history, and is on the verge of breaking his own single season Tampa Bay record of 28 passing TDs, which was set in 2016, this season. With three games left, Winston has 26 touchdowns and needs just three more scoring strikes to set a new franchise mark. Winston is averaging nearly 23 passing touchdowns per year, which is quite respectable for such a young NFL quarterback. According to the Detroit Free Press, Tampa Bay is tied for second in the NFL with 12 pass plays of 40-plus yards and 57 pass plays of 20-plus yards.

Winston also has scored at least one rushing touchdown in every year he’s been in the league, and has 10 for his five-year career. A lot of Winston’s big plays come outside the pocket, whether it’s downfield throws or scrambles. Winston set a new career high with 281 yards rushing last year, and already has 225 this season. With just 57 more yards in the next three games, Winston could establish a new personal best.

Durability
Winston has only missed eight games in nearly five full years in Tampa Bay and has proven to be quite durable. He started all 16 games of his first two seasons with the Bucs and then missed three games due to a shoulder injury in 2017 before returning to action down the stretch and playing through pain. Since then, Winston has not missed a game due to injury.

Winston was suspended by the league for the first three games of the 2018 campaign due to allegations of a groping incident from the 2016 offseason. He played in 11 games that year with nine starts, but was benched for a total of two games in that season.

The Alabama native has fought through several minor injuries through the years, including a slightly fractured thumb he’s currently dealing with. After missing the first series of the second half against Indianapolis, Winston returned to action and passed for over 200 yards, including the game-winning touchdown. Simply put, Winston’s a gamer, and his ultra-competitive nature only adds to his durability.

Increased Maturity
Winston had two problematic issues coming out of Florida State – turnovers and a character concerns, mostly stemming from a sexual assault allegation in college. While Winston is still a turnover machine with a league-high 23 interceptions this year, he has made progress in the character aspect of his life. Winston was suspended in 2018 for an alleged groping incident with a female Uber drive in the 2016 offseason, but since then he’s been a model citizen.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: PR

As Winston has grown up he’s matured. He and his fiancée Breion Allen, are engaged to be married, and the two welcomed their first child, son Antonor, into the world in the summer of 2018. Fatherhood has helped Winston settle down, and he has quit drinking alcohol. Sources close to Winston tell me that sobriety has also made a big difference in his life.

Youth Is On His Side
Tampa Bay had a good deal of success with veteran free agent quarterbacks in the Jon Gruden era, with 34-year old Brad Johnson winning a Super Bowl with the Bucs in 2002, and 37-year old Jeff Garcia taking the team to its last playoff appearance and division championship in 2007. But the Bucs have been unable to find success with draft picks over their four decades worth of existence, evidenced by the fact that no drafted QB has signed a contract extension in Tampa Bay.

Winston could be the first Bucs quarterback in franchise history to stick around past his rookie deal. If that’s the case, the good news is that he turns 26 in January and will have a much longer shelf life in Tampa Bay than either Johnson or Garcia did. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, who is expected to go No. 1 overall in this year’s draft to Cincinnati, will be 24 during his rookie season. Winston is three years older and already has five years worth of experience in the NFL.

Community Service
I’ve been to plenty of Winston’s community service events since his rookie season to know that he genuinely cares about helping kids and others in the Tampa Bay community. Some might suggest that Winston does these things to overcome the stigma of his accusations of sexual assault at Florida State and his alleged groping incident of an Uber driver in Arizona after his rookie season in 2015, but Winston is no phony.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: PewterReport.com

He’s a kid at heart and all of his enthusiasm and passion for helping kids with his Dream Forever Foundation is real. I, and the PewterReport.com staff, have witnessed it up and close and personal at his youth football camps, his Dream Forever computerized classrooms in disadvantaged schools, his Famous Jameis Jamboree holiday celebration. It’s not just show for the cameras. Think what you want of Winston’s past indiscretions, but he’s an asset to the Bucs’ community outreach and to the Tampa Bay community in general.

Those are 10 generalized reasons to keep Winston. I didn’t rely heavily on statistics because, as I’ve said before, stats can be skewed and don’t tell the whole story. I can scour the Internet and find stats that show Winston as the second coming of Peyton Manning and Brett Favre, or the second coming of Vinny Testaverde and Blake Bortles with regards to his high rate of both touchdowns and interceptions.

Bucs general manager Jason Licht and the Glazers didn’t just look at Winston’s Florida State stats sheet when they decided to take him with the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. And Arians, Licht and the Glazers won’t just look at Winston’s Bucs stats sheet when they decide whether or not to keep him in Tampa Bay for 2020 and beyond. There is a lot more to it than just touchdowns and interceptions – and even wins and losses because football is the ultimate team sport with 10 other teammates on the field at the same time.

Now in a fair and balanced approach, let’s take a look at Winston’s cons when it comes to possibly re-signing him or letting him go in free agency and moving in a different direction at the quarterback position in Tampa Bay in 2020.