If you haven’t already, make sure you get a subscription to The Athletic and check out Arif Hasan’s work on putting together the annual consensus NFL Draft Big Board, with input from over 54 evaluators’ work. It’s one of the best pieces of content to emerge from the offseason every year.

Compared to this consensus board, my final Big Board (dropping on Thursday morning right here on PewterReport.com) is much lower on several prospects than the combined ranking of most other evaluators in the field. I’ve pulled 11 of the most egregious discrepancies between my board and consensus, detailing why I’ve reached my conclusions about each prospect.

QB Jordan Love, Utah State

There are three things that I really value in quarterback play: accuracy, decision-making and mental processing. Those are also arguably the three biggest areas where Love struggles, and I’m just not sure his lack of consistency in those key aspects of quarterback play is correctable moving forward. Love’s decision-making is below-average, and his accuracy comes and goes despite his ability to lace a fastball into a tight window or drop a dime in the bucket down the field.

Utah State Qb Jordan Love

Utah State QB Jordan Love – Photo by: Getty Images

Almost every quarterback in the NFL can make great throws from time-to-time, but few can do it consistently. Combine that struggle with Love’s troubling field vision and erratic pocket presence and you have a quarterback who will need to undergo a major transformation to become a quality starter in the NFL.

WR Tee Higgins, Clemson

I won’t deny that Higgins has shown special ball skills and body control all over his college tape, but how will that contested catch ability translate to the NFL when Higgins will be one of the worst athletes at his position in the league? He had a 4.58 time in the 40-yard dash, a 1.66 10-yard split, a 31-inch vertical and a 4.53 short shuttle time – just dreadful numbers from Higgins’ pro day. Those are numbers that simply don’t succeed at the NFL level unless the player is a special technician.

And that’s just not the case with Higgins. He makes a ton of plays in tight quarters, but he doesn’t separate easily as a route runner and he’s up-and-down against press coverage. Without the speed to threaten corners vertically or the quickness to consistently separate underneath, Higgins will need a quarterback willing to trust him with a defender in his hip pocket in order to make plays at the NFL level.

TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame

You can argue that Kmet’s upside is a selling point and I won’t disagree with you. He’s decently fast for the position and he’s got serious hops for a tight end. The problem is that nothing about his tape compels you to draft him before the fourth round. He drops too many passes, he’s a poor blocker and he can’t separate against man coverage.

Too often defenders took physical liberties with Kmet en route, and he couldn’t match that level of physicality. Much of Kmet’s production came against blown coverages or finding space in zones, not in contested situations or by creating separation as a route runner. It feels like he’s being forced up the board right now because this is a bad tight end class.

OT Austin Jackson, USC

I’ve written at length about Jackson here, and suffice to say that I’ll probably never be a fan of offensive linemen who get physically bodied more than they physically body their opponents. A certain level of physicality and power is simply required to play the position well, and if you don’t have that, you better be a masterful technician. Jackson is far from that. There are athletic tools to work with, but we say that about a handful of tackles in every class that never pan out in the NFL.

EDGE A.J. Epenesa, Iowa

I’m actually closer to consensus on Epenesa now than I used to be, compared to when most analysts had him in their top 10-15 prospects in early January. A miserable showing at the NFL Scouting Combine and perhaps a re-visiting of the tape has him sliding a little bit, but not much as the Iowa defensive end still sits at No. 23 on the consensus board.

Iowa Edge A.j . Epenesa

Iowa Edge A.J . Epenesa – Photo by Getty Images

Unlike some of the prospects on this list, I think Epenesa is a good college player who simply doesn’t have the pass-rush athleticism (bend/flexibility, burst, speed, change-of-direction) to make the same kind of impact off the edge that he did in college. He isn’t unnaturally powerful or sudden enough with his hands to toss around NFL tackles the way he did dudes from Minnesota or Nebraska. I think his best role will be as an inside rusher on long/late downs, and I’d be willing to pay a late third-round price for that, just not anywhere near the top 32.

EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State

Unlike Epenesa, Gross-Matos has a lot of the traits you’d like in an edge defender, but none of the rush move refinement or consistently impressive tape as a pass rusher. He looks the part and is a good enough raw athlete, but because Gross-Matos is so slow out of his stance, you rarely get to see the cornering ability that he may or may not possess. Right now he’s a speed-to-power rusher without enough speed to create the force necessary to move offensive tackles at the NFL level. There is a decently high ceiling here, but is Gross-Matos the type to grind and get there?

EDGE Julian Okwara, Notre Dame

Okwara has two ways of winning as a pass rusher right now, and neither show up consistently on tape. He’s got the long-arm bull rush that flashes twice a game and occasionally he’ll chop the hands and work inside an egregious overset.

Other than that, the Notre Dame edge defender simply offers uninspired rush after uninspired rush, showing an inconsistent get-off, poor hand usage and an inability to drop his pads and corner at the top of the arc. Because of his traits, you might be willing to live with all of that if Okwara wasn’t among the worst run defenders in the class, getting driven off the ball even by opposing tight ends. It was egregious enough to make one question how much dog was in the fight for the junior, which isn’t a question you want a raw prospect to have to answer.

CB Kristian Fulton, LSU

Fulton is one of the players I feel a little torn on including here, because I actually like his game and think he’s a solid corner, but the round grade for that type of value falls in early Round 3 for me, while consensus has him 26th overall.

One of the struggles with Fulton is that he doesn’t really have the length or strength to desire him in press coverage, which showed up big-time against Higgins in the national championship game. His technique is pretty good, but with just average quickness to mirror-and-match and struggles to find the football with his back to it, Fulton may be best suited for an off-man scheme at the next level.

That’s not a pre-dominant scheme for a lot of teams, and while I expect Fulton to be a starter in the NFL, I think his limitations will result in some up-and-down results in his play. He is more ready to see playing time early than some other corners in this class, but I think he is what he is, and that might always be just a solid starter rather than the difference maker the consensus board seems to think he is.

CB Trevon Diggs, Alabama

Slower-than-you’d-like, stiff corners with inconsistent press technique need to be in the right scheme fit and get great coaching in order to succeed in the NFL. Diggs has intriguing ball skills and elite length for the position, but shifty route runners are going to eat him up and quality wide receivers who knew how to get off press gave him fits at the line of scrimmage. Diggs may need to be in a press-bail Cover 3 type of scheme to thrive in the NFL, but if he can find the right fit, my interest in him will perk a bit, even if his role is more replaceable than other man coverage corners around the league.

S Grant Delpit, LSU

Lsu S Grant Delpit

LSU S Grant Delpit – Photo by: Getty Images

Anyone who says tackling doesn’t matter for a safety is just trying to convince themselves of something that will make their opinion on a player more convenient. Of course, it matters, they are often the last line of defense between a ball carrier and six points. Points kind of matter in the NFL. Tackling absolutely matters, and Delpit has been one of the worst tackling prospects in college football for three seasons now, but especially over the past two.

Of course, there are other things that are more important than tackling, namely coverage ability. Delpit was consistently beaten by NFL-caliber slot threats (tight ends and wide receivers) on tape, raising concerns about just how versatile he can be in the NFL. I still like him as a single-high free safety with range and some ball skills, although seeing him test could have alleviated my concerns that he is a good, not great athlete. Again, I view Delpit as a solid starter at free safety in the NFL, but with limitations that may always be a bit frustrating.

S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne

I actually think Dugger’s potential is through the roof because he is an awesome athlete who is fully prepared for the violence and physicality of the NFL. That’s a great place to start, but unfortunately he is also among the most raw prospects in the class. Dugger bites on everything as a deep safety and is all over the place technically in man coverage, all of which he could get away with at Lenoir-Rhyne.

It’s impossible to give him a great tape grade using a numerical scale like mine, but his Senior Bowl performance and his Combine suggest a player just waiting to be molded at the next level. That mold might be more of a linebacker than a safety however, so a lot of projection is required.

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