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About the Author: Jon Ledyard
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If you haven’t read it yet, make sure you check out Scott Reynolds’ final 53-man roster prediction from last Friday’s Fab 5. We have a few key differences in our depth picks for the roster, but for the most part the Bucs final 53 isn’t difficult to predict.
The Bucs and all NFL teams will have to pare down their 80-man training camp rosters to 53 players by 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 5. Here’s my prediction for what that process will result in this weekend:
QUARTERBACKS – 3
QB Tom Brady
QB Blaine Gabbert
QB Ryan Griffin
ANALYSIS: Rookie Reid Sinnett has been good enough to vie for a practice squad spot, but that’s about it. That should make the Bucs’ decision on the final quarterback room pretty easy, especially in a year where experience in the offense will matter a lot. Gabbert and Griffin may not provide much behind Brady, but they at least have knowledge of the playbook, and Gabbert has operated in it before in games in Arizona.
RUNNING BACKS – 4
RB Ronald Jones II
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Dare Ogunbowale
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Bucs RB Dare Ogunbowale – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
ANALYSIS: Jones appears ready to step into the feature role in Tampa Bay’s backfield, while McCoy gives the Bucs a stable backup who can contribute as needed in the passing game. Many had high hopes for Vaughn to make an impact as a rookie, but I don’t see that happening unless there are injuries ahead of him. Dare Ogunbowale knows the offense better, is the more polished receiver and pass protector, and is far more valuable on special teams. He should get a hat over the rookie on game days.
WIDE RECEIVERS – 6
WR Mike Evans
WR Chris Godwin
WR Scotty Miller
WR Justin Watson
WR Jaydon Mickens
WR Tyler Johnson
ANALYSIS: If T.J. Logan had stayed healthy, the Bucs might have carried five wide receivers and five running backs for the special teams impact. But with Logan on injured reserve, it opens a roster spot for wide receiver to get back to No. 6, allowing Johnson to make the final 53 despite the fact he’s spent essentially the entire offseason injured. I still think the Bucs have high hopes for Johnson once he can master the offense, assessing him too highly pre-draft to risk losing him now. Mickens should shoulder the return duties in Logan’s absence.
TIGHT ENDS – 4
TE Rob Gronkowski
TE O.J. Howard
TE Cameron Brate
TE Antony Auclair
Bucs TE Cameron Brate – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
ANALYSIS: No surprises here, as the Bucs are loaded at the tight end position across the board. Auclair may be the last guy in here, but his special teams value, reliable hands and promising run blocking (in the eyes of the Bucs’ coaches at least), allow him to stick pretty safely on the roster.
As a footnote, don’t be surprised if Howard leads the tight end room in snap counts this season, and don’t be surprised if Brate is in the lineup over Auclair in 13 personnel (three tight ends), despite the fact he’s a worse blocker in a run-heavy personnel grouping. Brate may not be bad enough in the run game for the Bucs to want his receiving prowess off the field, even in run-likely situations.
OFFENSIVE LINEMEN – 9
LT Donovan Smith
LG Ali Marpet
C Ryan Jensen
RG Alex Cappa
RT Tristan Wirfs
OT Joel Haeg
OT Josh Wells
C A.Q. Shipley
G John Molchon
ANALYSIS: It’s hard enough to find five good starting offensive linemen in the NFL, let alone the depth to step in when needed. The Bucs have done about as well as can be expected on both fronts, drafting Wirfs to round out an arrow-pointing-up starting five, and signing utility offensive lineman in Haeg and Shipley, a former Cardinals starting center, to be the first two off the bench in case of an injury. Wells returns to backup Smith after a rough 200+ snaps a season ago, and is bigger and looks better in camp. Molchon, an undrafted free guard, may not be a mauler, but his smarts and toughness will allow him to stick as the ninth man on the unit.
DEFENSIVE LINEMEN – 7
DT Ndamukong Suh
DT Vita Vea
DL Will Gholston
DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DT Khalil Davis
DT Kyle Love
DL Patrick O’Connor
Bucs DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR
ANALYSIS: Seven interior defensive linemen? My rationale, outside of the fact that most 3-4 teams keep more interior defensive linemen and less linebackers on their roster, is that the Bucs simply aren’t deep enough at off-ball linebacker or at edge defender to bother keeping a fifth player simply to make the numbers look better. They have enough special teams impact from their offensive side of the ball to offset the need for another linebacker, allowing them to keep more beef on the inside.
I think the team would love to sneak Davis to the practice squad, but he’s flashed too much to risk losing him. Honestly, he might be able to provide a slight impact later this season on long-and-late downs. Love is the veteran run-stuffer they’d need in the middle if Suh or Vea missed time, and O’Connor has the versatility to move around the front and fill a couple roles, potentially even outside the tackle, if an injury occurred elsewhere – and he’s a core special teams player.
OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS – 4
OLB Shaquil Barrett
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul
OLB Anthony Nelson
OLB Cam Gill
ANALYSIS: The Bucs top three outside linebackers are locks, but the fourth spot remains up for grabs, even following the conclusion of training camp. Despite more time in Todd Bowles’ defense, neither Quinton Bell or Kahzin Daniels have really established themselves as a front-runner for the job, while Gill, an undrafted rookie free agent, has been mentioned several times as a standout on special teams. Bruce Arians even praised his pass rush on Sunday. The Bucs could keep Gill and Bell, with O’Connor getting the broom, but for now I just think Bell is the worst of those three players competing for two spots.
INSIDE LINEBACKERS – 4
ILB Lavonte David
ILB Devin White
ILB Kevin Minter
ILB Chapelle Russell
Bucs ILB Kevin Minter – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ANALYSIS: Similar to edge defender, the Bucs are in a pickle after their first three spots at inside linebacker, as no one has really stepped up to claim the No. 4 job. Early in camp I think the team believed Russell would flash enough to make them feel confident that he’s the guy, but Arians specifically called the rookie linebacker out as someone who needed to step up after last Friday’s scrimmage.
The Bucs would love to keep Jack Cichy, but he’s been healthy for 17 games over the past four seasons of football, dating back to his junior year in college. Four straight season-ending injuries is just too concerning to roster in a season like this, especially if Russell has shown any promise at all.
DEFENSIVE BACKS – 9
CB Carlton Davis
CB Sean Murphy-Bunting
CB Jamel Dean
CB Ryan Smith
CB Parnell Motley
S Jordan Whitehead
S Andrew Adams
S Antoine Winfield, Jr.
S Mike Edwards
ANALYSIS: Reynolds and I agree not only on the fact the Bucs will keep nine defensive backs this year, but also on which nine the team will retain. The top four cornerbacks are locks, with Ryan Smith making the team due to special teams prowess. Motley has stood out to such an extent in camp that he could pass Smith as the team’s fourth cornerback, but if an injury occurred at that position, it might be the safety room that sees a bump in playing time.
Edwards and Winfield both have experience in the slot and would likely play there in the event of an injury, while Jordan Whitehead sees more tight end match-up specific duties. Adams will be the fourth safety, while D’Cota Dixon will likely be one of the last cuts due to his versatility and ability to impact special teams. No Justin Evans, as his time with the Bucs comes to a close due to injuries.
SPECIALISTS – 3
K Matt Gay
P Bradley Pinion
LS Zach Triner
ANALYSIS: Gay gets the nod over newcomer Ryan Succop because he rises to the competition the last week in camp. Gay nailed 77 percent of his field goals as a rookie, but came into Week 17 connecting on 84 percent of his kicks until three costly misses against the Falcons lowered his percentage. Gay has a stronger leg than Succop and is given the benefit of the doubt. Pinion once again will handle punts, kickoffs and will hold for placements, while Triner returns as the long snapper.
