Each week I’ll look back at and break down the Bucs’ most valuable plays from their past game, in terms of Expected Points Added.
Expected Points Added, or EPA, is a statistic that was created to measure the value of each play during a football game in terms of points. EPA is essentially trying to put a value on how many net points a team can expect to gain based on the result of an individual play, while taking the down-and-distance and the team’s field position into account.
For example, a 5-yard run from the 50-yard line on first-and-10 is weighed differently than a 5-yard run inside the opponents 10-yard line on third-and-2.
You can read all about Expected Points Added here, including examples.
The plays shown are measured from the offense’s perspective, so plays made by Tampa Bay’s offense will result in a positive EPA for the Bucs and plays made by Tampa Bay’s defense will result in a negative EPA for their opponents.
Below are the Bucs’ highest-valued plays by Expected Points Added, per rbsdm.com by Ben Baldwin, from their Week 5 match-up against the Chicago Bears.
Carlton Davis, Interception: -6.3 EPA
In the first quarter, trailing 3-0, Chicago started at their own 25-yard line and had quickly moved into Tampa Bay territory to the Bucs’ 36-yard line on three plays.
On first-and-10, Tampa Bay sent a five-man pressure by way of a delayed blitz from Devin White. In coverage, Lavonte David manned the middle of the field and Antoine Winfield Jr. was sitting in single-high coverage while Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis aligned in press man coverage on the Bears’ three receivers.
On the snap David takes away the throwing lane to the slot so quarterback Nick Foles bypasses his hot read in Anthony Miller and fires down the right sideline to Robinson. Davis sticks to Robinson on the go route and comes up with his third interception in four games, also the fifth interception of his career.
Below is an alternate angle of the interception.
Tom Brady/Cam Brate, 20-Yard Completion: 3.2 EPA
After re-taking a 16-14 lead on their first drive of the second half, Tampa Bay forced Chicago into a three-and-out and had great starting field position following a Bears’ penalty on the punt, taking over at midfield. Ke’Shawn Vaughn took the first down carry for a one-yard gain before Chicago outside linebacker James Vaughters went unblocked for a sack on second down, forcing the Bucs into a third-and-15 situation.
The ensuing play featured all long-developing routes, with all four of Brady’s receivers running past the sticks except for Vaughn out of the backfield. Chicago was able to quickly get pressure with four rushers as the Bucs stayed with a five-man protection. Cam Brate, Brady’s lone receiver on the left side of the formation, chips the pass rush from Robert Quinn and runs a simple seam route against the Bears’ zone defense. The pocket collapses quickly on Brady, but he’s able to move left, step up and find Brate sitting in a hole in the defense for a 20-yard gain and a big first down.
Ronald Jones II, 37-Yard Run: 2.4 EPA
Chicago punted on their first drive of the game and a 12-yard return by Jaydon Mickens set Tampa Bay up at their own 32-yard line.
On first down Tampa Bay came out in 11 personnel, spreading the defense out with three wide receivers and leaving just six defenders in the box. In a split zone concept, Rob Gronkowski comes across the formation to kick out Robert Quinn, who leaves a gaping backside hole when he fails to step down the line of scrimmage off the snap.
On the snap, linebacker Danny Trevethan follows the pulling tight end and falls into the backside B Gap. Alex Cappa and Tristan Wirfs hold their blocks and now with no linebacker over the playside A Gap, Ryan Jensen is free to double team nose tackle Bilal Nichols instead of moving up to the second level, which opens up a huge running lane for Jones. Jones then has to make one man miss before taking the carry 37 yards, down to Chicago’s 31-yard line, for his longest carry of the 2020 season.
Tom Brady/Tyler Johnson, 35-Yard Completion: 2.4 EPA
Following the interception from Davis, the Bucs were set up at midfield to start their third drive of the game on Thursday.
After a six-yard run on first down, Tampa Bay deployed a three-receiver set. Rookie Tyler Johnson runs a post route that finds the hole between the linebackers and three deep defensive backs, and Brady hits him at the Chicago 28-yard line for a first down. After the catch, Johnson levels two defenders and adds 19 more yards to the grab, getting the Bucs down inside the 10-yard line.
Hidden Gems (Penalty Edition)
While my Hidden Gems segment typically consists of plays that were crucial to the Bucs’ success without necessarily stacking up in terms of Expected Points Added, this week there were a number of penalties that disproportionately effected the outcome of Tampa Bay’s Week 5 loss against Chicago. Penalties aren’t the sole reason the Bucs lost and the officiating certainly wasn’t exclusively poor in Chicago’s favor, but these plays were major factors in the game.
Shaq Barrett, Roughing The Passer: 2.4 EPA
With right around four minutes remaining in the game and the Bears trailing 19-17, Chicago was backed up to their own 16-yard line and facing a third-and-19 following an incomplete pass and a 9-yard sack by Will Gholston.
Despite the chip block from Miller, Barrett is left one-on-one with left tackle Charles Leno Jr. and easily wins his match-up, getting the quarterback hit and forcing an incomplete pass intended for Ted Ginn Jr.
But instead of the play forcing Chicago into a fourth-and-19 where they would be punting from their own 16-yard line, Barrett was flagged for a roughing the passer penalty that moved the Bears up to their own 31-yard line with a new set of downs.
Chicago would ultimately punt three plays later, but the difference in field position was significant as they would wind up punting from their own 33-yard line, as opposed to their own 16-yard line, allowing punter Pat O’Donnell to down the Bucs inside their own 20-yard line.
Given the Bears’ field position and the third-and-19 conversion that resulted from the penalty, Chicago’s Expected Points Added of 2.4 on the play left it tied for the fourth-most valuable play of the entire game in terms of EPA.
Shaq Barrett, Neutral Zone Infraction: 0.5 EPA
With under five minutes left in the first half, Chicago was driving down 13-0 and looking to put their first points of the night up on the board before heading into the locker room.
After two short passes to Montgomery, the first going for a loss of six and the second going for a gain of four, Chicago was facing a third-and-12 from their own 39-yard line. Before the snap, Barrett came charging around right tackle Bobby Massie and was flagged for a neutral zone infraction, pushing the Bears up to third-and-7.
On third-and-7 the Bears were able to pick up the first down on a 12-yard gain to Montgomery and would ultimately score a touchdown on the drive, bringing the score to 13-7. But when looking at an alternate angle of the play, it’s clear that Chicago right guard Germain Ifedi committed an uncalled false start penalty before Barrett crossed the line of scrimmage.
Had the false start penalty been awarded to Tampa Bay instead of a neutral zone infraction being called, the resulting situation would have been third-and-17 instead of the third-and-7 that Chicago converted. And while we can’t say definitively that Chicago wouldn’t have converted the third-and-17 play, we can look at the statistics.
Per Sharp Football Stats, teams have converted first downs 36 percent of the time when facing third down and between seven and 10 yards to go in 2020, however when facing between 15 and 20 yards to go on third down, that conversion rate drops way down to just 11 percent.
For Chicago specifically, the Bears have yet to convert a third down in 2020 when facing between 15 and 20 yards to go.
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