Betting The Bucs is a weekly segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Tampa Bay game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help you make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also break down various prop bets to take before you watch on Sunday.

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The Line: Bucs -9.5, O/U 42

The last week of the regular season can throw a wrench into betting plans, but luckily for the Bucs, they still have something to play for. Since Tampa Bay can reach the two-seed in the NFC with a win and a Rams loss, they’ll be all systems go with Los Angeles playing at the same time.

Their opponent has nothing to play for, and the Panthers are an absolute mess. Part of that is because they don’t have a quarterback and their best offensive player is injured. On defense, most of Carolina’s players in the secondary are hurt, and that was their best unit. The Bucs played bad against an even worse opponent last week and still won, so I don’t think they’ll put up a lackluster performance again.

We’re all finally weening off the Antonio Brown saga this week. Will the players ever say publicly that they didn’t like what AB had to say when he went on a recent podcast? No. Will they try to stick it to him by hitting some incentives of their own that Brown bellyached about not getting? Absolutely. We’ll keep that in mind for the prop bets section. The Bucs also have history on the line, as Mike Evans can bring his NFL record to eight straight seasons with 1,000-yards. Also, Tom Brady needs to pad some stats in the MVP race.

Just a couple more stats for you to send you on your way: I love that the Bucs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home. They’re just a different team in Tampa and not many opponents can stop them. That’s why it’s so important for them to get that No. 2 seed. For today, they cover one more time if the starters are in.

The Pick: Bucs -9.5

Mike Evans Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Evans is just 54 yards away from extending his NFL record of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin a career with eight. Last year when he needed the record in the regular season finale, the Bucs fed him the ball to open the game. I’d expect that same process today, and Carolina’s secondary being banged up will help him get it.

Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+165)

Brady is still in the race for the MVP with Aaron Rodgers. A great last game could sway some voters. He’ll need huge numbers to win the award, but he’s been so much better at home this season, especially with throwing touchdowns. He’s had four games at home where he’s thrown four or more touchdowns. With the Bucs top three running backs out, Brady can reach this.

Tom Brady Over 276.5  Passing Yards (-114)

Looking to get Mike Evans his record and Gronk his incentives, Brady will be tossing the ball around the field on Sunday.

Rob Gronkowski Over 6.5 Receptions (-135)

I wasn’t even going to put Gronk on this list until Adam Schefter tweeted this out Saturday night.

Gronk can earn up to a million dollars with a huge game today. Remember those choice words that AB had for Gronk on the podcast? Well, I wouldn’t put it past the coaches and Gronk’s teammates to ensure that he has a nice bonus in his pocket after this game. Gronk wasn’t at his best the last time these teams met, but he is coming off a 100-yard game last week.

Gronk Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The incentives are for both receptions and receiving yards. Gronk gets his pay day and Brady breaks the Bucs’ passing record while also putting in a good argument for MVP. A nice deal for everyone.

Bucs 1H  -6.5 (-110)

There is a chance the Bucs won’t be playing for much else besides personal accolades. If the Rams win on Sunday, then the Bucs stay at the No. 3 seed. I’m willing to bet that the Bucs jump out to an extended lead to get the blowout started early. If they find out that the Rams are winning in a lopsided game, they can throw in Blaine Gabbert and other backups to protect everyone for next week, while still preserving a win. If the Rams game is close, then the Bucs did what they needed to do.