I have been accused of being contrarian over the years. After seeing Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich’s press conference last week, he and I may be similar in that way. After refusing to acknowledge the disparity in success between the Bucs passing attack and their ground game, Leftwich spoke in general platitudes about putting his team in the best position to win on every play. The numbers seem to overwhelmingly disagree with him.

Some #Bucs data of note:

6th in dropback EPA/play
32nd in rush EPA/play

20th in neutral first down pass rate (42%)

— Paul Atwal (@AtwalNFL) October 17, 2022

Given these facts leading into the Carolina game, and the additional fact that the Bucs generated just three points of offense, it makes sense that there is now a call to fire Leftwich. But how complicit was Leftwich in that dreadful outcome? After all, he is the builder, if not the architect, of the now sub-optimal Bucs offense.

There is plenty of blame to go around for the Bucs poor start to the season, and much of it is laid at the feet of the offense that is generating just 16.7 points per game (remember the Bucs have seven points off of an interception returned for a touchdown in New Orleans). And Leftwich seems to publicly bristle at any criticism while still making baffling choices. Within the context of the season to date as a whole it is very difficult to mount a defense for the Bucs beleaguered play-caller.

But on Sunday in Carolina Leftwich actually made several steps forward. The results make that hard to believe, but let’s look beyond the score.

First Down Play-Calling

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: USA Today

One of the most oft-cited reasons for Leftwich’s struggles has been his first down run rate. Many cite it as “predictable.” First off, let’s get something straight. It is not predictable. When you run the ball almost as often as you pass in a specific situation, you are kind of the definition of unpredictable.

No, the narrative is off the rails. For those hoping to improve the Bucs offense you should be calling for more predictability in you want a pass-heavy approach. The Buffalo Bills have one of the most predictable offenses in the NFL. Opposing defenses know the Bills are going to pass on first down and it does not matter because the Bills do it so well, they still succeed.

The Bucs offense could be like that. Their efficiency numbers bear that fact out. And against Carolina, Leftwich took the first step towards that possibility. In neutral situations Leftwich called a pass on 11 first downs and a run on just five. That’s an almost 70% pass rate. This is good!

And on those 11 passes the Bucs generated 62 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per play. That isn’t the most impressive success rate, but it far outweighed the 2.7 yards play generated on the run calls.

And I’ll add one of the technical passes was functionally a run. One of the qualified passes was a pop pass to Jaelon Darden, which acted as more of a sweep. If we move that play from the pass to the run category the numbers continue to skew to a 63% pass rate and 6.5 yards per play vs. the 37% run rate at 2.1 yards per play.

Conceding That There Needs To Be A Change At Left Guard

Bucs LG Luke Goedeke – Photo by: USA Today

For six weeks the Bucs’ coaching staff has been praising the progress of starting left guard Luke Goedeke. But on Sunday there was a change on the field. While Goedeke once again got the start, and had his best game of the season, he was placed into a rotation with backup Nick Leverett.

And we learned after the game, the rotation was planned early in the week. This shows Leftwich is making much-needed personnel changes.

Using More 11 Personnel

The Bucs ran 67 plays on offense on Sunday. By my count 43 of those came out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers). As for the 12 personnel groupings (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) that have been incredibly prevalent this season only occurred 16 times. That’s an almost three-to-one ratio in favor of the Bucs’ most successful personnel grouping.

And it makes sense as the results continue to bear out better results in 11. The Bucs created just 50 yards in 12 personnel. That’s just over three yards per play. They were able to gain 202 yards in 11, good for 4.7 yards per play. That’s an improvement.

Is It Too Late?

These are small steps forward, but no, it didn’t generate enough points. The process was good, but the results were poor in this instance.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: USA Today

More efficient first-down play-calling, improving starting lineups, and leaning on the best-performing personnel groupings. These are all objective improvements the Bucs offense made on Sunday under Leftwich. But they came in Week 7. The first-down play calling has been opportunity that has been present for years. Goedeke’s struggles have been apparent since Week 2.

The personnel packages have been 12-heavy through several lackluster performances this year. The changes are nice, but they could have been made in Week 6 and potentially resulted in a win in Pittsburgh. They could have been made in week four and resulted in a win against Green Bay.

The waiting game cost the Bucs at least one win. Most likely two. Yes, the offense struggled in week seven against the Panthers.

But for once, I argue the offensive coordinator was not extremely high on the list of reasons why. Leftwich made much-needed adjustments (even if he may not admit it), and as luck would have it, player execution failed him (again). I concede when given the context of the entire season and the way Leftwich has handled it, the frustration with him is well-warranted. He may be beyond the veil already.

But on Sunday, Leftwich made several positive adjustments that lend itself to future success – if they stay this course.