The book is out on the Bucs offense, or so it seems.

In September, Packers linebacker De’Vondre Campbell spoke about predicting what play Tampa Bay would run based off of a pre-snap motion on a “got to have it” two-point conversion attempt at the end of their Week 3 matchup against the Bucs. Campbell and the Packers defense apparently found a tell in the Bucs’ tendencies.

“Trusted my instincts. Two by two, every time they motion that receiver in, we know it’s a snag route,” he said. “So, I just went to my instincts and tried to make a play.”

Then, there is the now-infamous sideline dialogue between Ravens defenders during Baltimore’s victory over Tampa Bay in Week 8:

Ravens Defense later in that game, “let’s make it manageable for us, stop the run on first down” 😑 #goBucs pic.twitter.com/wt1ZhGMVRx

— 𝗭𝗮𝗰 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗻𝗲𝗿🎙 (@ZacOnTheMic) November 4, 2022

Defenses are keying into the Bucs’ offensive tendencies, and it is making it difficult for Tampa Bay to sustain drives. And the Rams may have found another one last week.

Bucs Have A Small Tell

Imagine a second down with 6-9 yards to go for the Bucs offense. A player goes in motion. Can you tell what happens next? If you guessed a screen pass, you would have a one in three chance of being right. Scouring through the play-by-play data, I noticed something a bit telling.

Tampa Bay has faced the above situation (second down and medium-to-long) outside of the hurry-up offense 41 times this season. The team has run the ball just six times in those scenarios. I am a fan of this approach, as the Bucs’ running game is abysmal and there is a low probability they would generate sufficient yardage for the play to be considered a success (on second down, that would be at least 75% of the yards needed for a first down to be picked up).

So, passing is the way to go here. But in those situations, the Bucs are relying on screen passes a significant chunk of the time. Of the 35 pass plays attempted, the Bucs ran a screen 13 times. That’s over 37% of the time. And those screens have generated just under five yards per play. That kind of efficiency is decent, but not great.

Here is a small sampling of what those screens have looked like. Let’s start with the high end.

On 2nd & 7 against Kansas City, the Bucs opt for a screen off of two different elements. The first was motion, as Russell Gage came across the formation from the strong side to the weak. The second was a play-action fake from Tom Brady coming out from under center.

With Kansas City already committed to rushing five, the play-action sucked in the linebacker (No. 7), pulling six defenders behind the line. Brady gets the ball out to Leonard Fournette, and he is able to work up field behind Robert Hainsey, Luke Goedeke and Donovan Smith for a 25-yard gain. This has been by far the longest screen play the Bucs have hit on in these situations all season.

The Strategy Isn’t Working

More often than not, the Bucs are not getting very healthy gains using this strategy. Without the above play propping up the season average, Tampa Bay’s average on such plays would fall to 3.25.

Using the definition of success I outlined above, the Bucs have been successful on second and medium-to-long screens just 31% of the time. It’s not that the Bucs aren’t completing the passes so much as they aren’t generating much yardage after the completion. Here are a couple of examples.

The Bucs once again use motion with Rachaad White splitting out wide before getting a tunnel screen that the Cowboys swallow up pretty easily.

Again, the Bucs start with pre-snap motion before throwing a bubble screen to Chris Godwin for a minimal gain. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has said that the Bucs’ running game is more than just running and that he considers some passes to be a part of the running game. I am pretty certain he is talking about the screen game, and much like the running game, it is not working as well as the team might hope.

The Bucs’ Tendencies May Be Catching Up With Them

Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Part of the reason the Bucs may be struggling with some of these screens could lie in the fact that they are becoming somewhat predictable. If defenses know there is between a 1/3 and 2/5 shot that on second down and medium-to-long, the Bucs will throw a screen, they can sit on it and make the likelihood the play is successful go way down.

And the Bucs are showing some disturbing tendencies. On 11 of the 13 screens that fall into this situation, the Bucs used pre-snap motion. And there are other hints the Bucs opponents may be keying in on already as well.

Every time Brady has his right foot forward in gun, it’s a handoff or screen.

I charted it last year and it was over 80% run iirc.

— Paul Atwal (@AtwalNFL) October 28, 2022

What does it look like when the defense knows something is coming? Let’s take a look at a specific play from the Rams game. The situation is second and long. So, we know this is a down and distance where the Bucs look to a screen pass fairly often. Take note of the other pre-snap conditions.

Godwin in motion. That tracks. Brady’s right foot is forward. Watch Rams linebacker Terrell Lewis (No. 52). Once Godwin passes him on the motion, he looks back to clock exactly where Godwin ended up. Now, let’s watch why.

It sure looks like Lewis knew that screen was coming. And why wouldn’t he? There were a whole host of reasons for him to make that assumption. And the result was the pass being easily broken up, and Lewis was so close to an easy pick six.

For the game, Tampa Bay ran five screen plays on second down and medium-to-long. The offense generated a total of nine yards on those plays. And 78% of that yardage came on an admittedly nifty screen to Fournette near the goal line. Even though the Bucs leaned into this tendency, they created enough variation on the play by setting up the screen in the middle of the field that it threw the Rams off just enough.

But still, nine yards on five plays. That is worse than Tampa Bay’s running game. Leftwich needs to take a step back and look at some of these tendencies. He needs to figure out counters for them to throw opposing defenses off. And he needs to do it soon. I don’t care how good practices are going. If your opponents have a good idea what you are about to do, even improved execution isn’t going to save you.