There’s no way around it: The Bucs have underperformed through the first 10 weeks of the 2022 season. Yes, they’re still 5-5 and they still lead the NFC South as they enjoy their Week 11 bye. But this is a team that is led by seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, and expectations entering this season were rightfully very high.

But after a 2-0 start that included road wins at Dallas and New Orleans, Tampa Bay lost five of its next six games. The offense hasn’t gotten off the ground at any point this season and a lot has been put on the defense, which hasn’t always been that great either – especially when it comes to forcing turnovers. The Bucs did well to win back-to-back games before their bye, but things really haven’t been entirely right with them for a full 10 weeks now.

So, what’s the problem? A lot of it has been poor coaching and poor execution. But has Todd Bowles’ team been unlucky? ESPN’s Bill Barnwell included the Bucs as one of his five “unluckiest” teams so far this season in an article this week (ESPN+ subscription required). He makes some interesting points, first saying he won’t even touch on their injury woes… before touching on their injury woes.

“I won’t even touch on their injury woes, which cost them most of their offensive line and nearly all of their receivers for stretches of time. The injuries are going to linger into the second half, given that edge rusher Shaq Barrett (left Achilles) and center Ryan Jensen (left knee) are out for the season.”

Bucs C Ryan Jensen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Everyone has gone completely silent on Jensen since he injured his knee early in training camp. It’s been thought that he could be available for a late-season or postseason return, but there’s a lot of mystery there. Nonetheless, yes, the Bucs have been pretty unlucky on the injury front. Their two big free agent wide receivers – Russell Gage and Julio Jones – have missed a lot of time. Left tackle Donovan Smith missed time early this season, too, as did Chris Godwin.

The defense certainly hasn’t been exempt from the injury bug either. Carlton Davis, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Akiem Hicks all missed multiple games, while Logan Ryan has been out for over a month and Barrett will miss the rest of the season. So, yes, there’s been an unlucky element to the Bucs’ season in terms of injuries. But if Barnwell’s main focus isn’t the injuries, where else might Tampa Bay be unlucky?

Bucs Defense Outside The Red Zone? Great. Inside The Red Zone? Well…

The crux of Barnwell’s case for the Bucs being “unlucky” lies with Bowles’ defense. It’s an interesting thought, as Barnwell points out how much of a disparity there is between the performance of the defense outside the red zone vs. inside the 20.

“Take their performance on defense. Outside of the red zone, the Buccaneers have the league’s fifth-best defense by expected points added (EPA) per play. Inside the 20-yard line, though, they haven’t been anywhere near as effective. They rank 18th in EPA per play allowed in the red zone. Opposing teams have converted 63% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns against Tampa Bay, the eighth-highest rate in the league.

“The Bucs ranked 10th in red zone conversion rate on defense in 2021. Past performance isn’t indicative of future success, but we know from the broader NFL that teams that play much worse in the red zone than they do outside of it typically see their red zone performance improve as the season progresses. A great defense, most of the time, typically will be great in the red zone or get there as it gets a larger sample.”

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Again, that’s interesting. The Bucs have been solid on defense for the most part, but their overall success hasn’t translated into red zone stops. Barnwell seems to be suggesting that there will be some regression to the mean for Tampa Bay over the final seven games of its season. Before you call that wishful thinking, it’s actually happened with this defense as recently as two seasons ago.

“Let’s go back to the first 10 weeks of the 2020 season. The Buccaneers were the second-best defense in the league in EPA per play outside of the 20-yard line, but they ranked 26th inside the red zone. Over the rest of the season and into the playoffs, that didn’t hold up; they ranked 12th outside the 20 and ninth inside the 20.”

That checks out. Maybe the Bucs’ red zone defense will even out after the bye week. It would also help if the team could benefit from a little turnover luck. That’s another stat Barnwell dives into:

“Tampa also has been unlucky when footballs have hit the ground this season. The average team recovers just under 58% of their fumbles on offense, but the Bucs only have recovered three of the nine balls they’ve put on the ground, or 33%. Doing the math, you can probably guess that teams recover a little more than 42% of the fumbles they force on the defensive side of the ball, but despite forcing 12, the Bucs only have recovered four. They’re tied with the Browns for the worst fumble recovery rate in the league.”

In their win over the Seahawks in Week 10, the Bucs forced their first turnover since Week 5. That’s quite the turnover drought. They have to hope that marks the start of their fortunes turning around in that aspect of the game.

Tampa Bay’s Schedule Lightens Up Down The Stretch

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Finally, Barnwell mentions the Bucs’ schedule as another aspect of their unluckiness. While Tampa Bay has played Dallas (6-3), Kansas City (7-2), Baltimore (6-3) and Seattle (6-4), it split those four games. Losses to Carolina (3-7) and Pittsburgh (3-6) were more egregious. Nonetheless, from Barnwell:

“There’s also that strength-of-schedule argument. A better way to put this than lucky might be “lopsided.” Per Football Outsiders, the Bucs played the 12th-toughest schedule through the first 10 weeks. While that might not seem too devastating, things are about to get a lot easier.

“Just two of Tampa’s final seven games are against teams with winning records: A home game against the 5-4 Bengals and a road trip to play the 5-4 49ers. The Bucs get the Browns and Saints over the next two weeks and finish with the Cardinals, Panthers and Falcons. The Super Bowl LV champs likely will be favored in six of their remaining seven games.”

Things do set up nicely down the stretch for the Bucs. Those two games against Cincinnati and San Francisco should prove tough, but the rest of the schedule should be manageable. “Should” is doing a lot of work in that sentence, of course, given the team’s losses to inferior teams earlier this season. Tampa Bay always gets a fight from New Orleans (3-7), so record aside, that’s no “gimme.” A road trip to Arizona (4-6) on Christmas Day will also be a challenge, and the Falcons (4-6) will test the Bucs again in Week 18.

If Tom Brady and Co. take care of business and beat the teams they should beat, though, the stretch run will look a lot better than the opening 10 games of the season. And if that’s the case, they might just head into the playoffs as a team that no one wants to face.

Unlucky? Or Poor Coaching/Execution? Why Not Both?

The reality is that yes, Barnwell is right to an extent. The Bucs have been quite unlucky in some areas throughout the first 10 weeks of the season. But that doesn’t excuse the team being poor in other aspects. Byron Leftwich’s play-calling has been rightfully criticized all year. The offense’s execution has been part of the problem, too. The team’s run game has been one of the worst in NFL history. Defensively, the Bucs have had their struggles against the run and have struggled to play a full four quarters. As a whole, Tampa Bay just hasn’t played complementary football.

Think of it this way. When a team wins the Super Bowl, there’s an element of luck to it, right? But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t coach well and play well on its way to the championship. Champions earn their way to the top. The same can be said on the flip side. An underperforming team can underperform both as a result of being unlucky and because of poor execution. The Bucs have earned every bit of their mediocre 5-5 record. But there’s reason to be optimistic that things will hit an upswing down the season’s final stretch.