SR’s Fab 5 is a collection of reporting and analysis on the Bucs from yours truly, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds. Here are four things that caught my attention this week, plus some random tidbits in my Buc Shots section at the end. Enjoy!

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FAB 1. Can The Bucs Trust Smith in 2023?

Bucs left tackle Donovan Smith is the highest-paid player on Tampa Bay’s roster this year.

And he’s one of the worst players on the team this year – perhaps the worst.

Smith is making $15.75 million in base salary and has a cap value of $18.4 million in 2022 thanks to a prorated bonus. What are the Bucs getting in return for their investment? Smith’s worst season in the league, unfortunately.

The 29-year old left tackle leads the league in penalties with 11 and he’s surrendered six sacks, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL. Keep in mind there are four games left in the 2022 season, so there’s a good chance that Smith will break his own dubious records for most penalties in a season (13 in 2016 ) and sacks surrendered in a season (eight in 2018).

Bucs QB Tom Brady and Browns DE Myles Garrett – Photo by: USA Today

Last year was Smith’s best season in Tampa Bay, where he only committed eight penalties and allowed just one sack. That earned the Penn State product a career-high 83.3 grade from Pro Football Focus. Smith’s 55.5 PFF grade this year is even lower than his 62.5 grade from his rookie season in 2015.

The eight-year starter is entering a contract year in 2023, but how in the world can the Bucs trust him after such a disastrous season? Sure, Smith is going through a myriad of serious, personal issues this year, but he’s a left tackle and plays an important role on what has become a dysfunctional offense in Tampa Bay. And his penalties, lack of effort at times and sacks allowed have helped create some of that dysfunction. Two of Smith’s holding calls – against New Orleans and San Francisco – have wiped touchdowns off the scoreboard, too.

Smith needs to understand that people’s jobs are on the line – and not just his.

But given how poorly he’s played this year, how can general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles trust Smith next year? How can quarterback Tom Brady trust Smith to protect his blindside if he chooses to return for another year in Tampa Bay?

It would be one thing if Smith was a young player who had yet to turn the corner in his professional career. But that corner has already been turned. That happened over the final eight games during the 2020 season, including the postseason when Smith’s improved play helped the Bucs win Super Bowl LV. And his stellar play continued throughout the 2021 season.

And what if Smith’s personal issues subside in 2023 and he has a bounce back year next season? Could Licht trust Smith with a new contract in 2024 and beyond after a roller coaster full of good and bad seasons since 2019?

Good left tackles, which is what Smith was last year, don’t grow on trees. They’re hard to find. They rarely hit free agency and usually have to be drafted early.

Great left tackles are rare.

Bucs OTs Donovan Smith and Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But the Bucs may already have one on their roster.

Tristan Wirfs, the team’s All-Pro right tackle, has the size, quickness, strength and athleticism to play left tackle in the league. And the Bucs may need to move Wirfs to left tackle next year and make a tough decision regarding Smith.

The Bucs could cut or trade Smith prior to June 1 and take a $7.95 million dead cap hit, but save $9.95 million in cap space. Smith is scheduled to make $15.25 million in base salary with a $17.9 million cap charge in 2023, per OverTheCap.com.

Because Smith is such a sub-par run blocker, it doesn’t make sense to move him to right tackle or inside to guard. The Bucs will have to decide if they can trust him to play left tackle and rebound in 2023, or if Wirfs is the much better option for the present – and the future – when it comes to stabilizing the left tackle position.

I would think it would be the latter. Wirfs played left tackle in four games during his final season at Iowa in 2019 and performed well. He may not be an All-Pro left tackle out of the gate upon a position switch, but that could come in time with experience at the position. Yet, Wirfs is so good technically and such a great athlete that I wouldn’t rule out a Pro Bowl in his first season at left tackle, which is a level Smith has never attained.

Finding a good right tackle in free agency or the draft is easier than acquiring a great left tackle. Whether it’s next year or in 2024 when Smith departs, the Bucs should strongly consider moving Wirfs to left tackle.

FAB 2. Most High-Priced Veterans Letting Bucs Down Big Time

In 2021, fresh off the team’s Super Bowl LV victory, Bucs general manager Jason Licht, head coach Bruce Arians and vice president of football administration Mike Greenberg re-signed nearly every Bucs free agent to make a run at another championship. That proved to be the right move last year as Tampa Bay won a franchise-record 13 games and came within four points of advancing to the NFC Championship Game, which the Bucs would have hosted if they would’ve beaten the Rams.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Between extensions for players like outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett and inside linebacker Lavonte David in 2021 and new, lucrative deals for wide receiver Chris Godwin, center Ryan Jensen, cornerback Carlton Davis III and running back Leonard Fournette, the Bucs aren’t getting much bang for their bucks this season. In fact, it’s Tampa Bay’s best, highest-paid players who are having down seasons in unison.

I’ve never seen anything like it in my 27 years covering the team – that this many star players are having sub-par years all in the same season.

Left tackle Donovan Smith, the topic of Fab 1, isn’t the only veteran with a big contract who is vastly under-performing this season. Quarterback Tom Brady and wide receiver Mike Evans also fall into that category, in addition to new receiver Russell Gage, who was signed in free agency.

Let’s take a look at the high-priced Bucs – classified as making at least $4 million or more – who have let the team down this year.

Injured High-Priced Starters

Bucs C Ryan Jensen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

OLB Shaquil Barrett – 4 years, $68 million ($17 million avg.)
Barrett is in the second year of his four-year contract. His cap value in 2022 is only $8.15 million, but swells to $21.65 million next year and $23.65 million in 2024. Barrett will turn 31 next year and is coming off a torn Achilles. That, plus Barrett’s enormous cap charge, is a scary combination heading into 2023. Before his injury, Barrett underwhelmed with just three sacks and a forced fumble in eight games. He had 10 sacks, three forced fumbles, two recoveries and an interception as a Pro Bowler in 2021.

C Ryan Jensen – 3 years, $39 million ($13 million avg.)
It wasn’t Jensen’s fault that he got hurt on the second day of training camp when left guard Aaron Stinnie threw rookie defensive tackle Logan Hall down on the Pro Bowl center’s knee. Jensen only accounts for $4 million in cap space this year, but carries a cap charge of $15 million in each of the next two seasons, plus $5 million in dead cap money in 2025 when his contract voids.

Star Players In Down Years

QB Tom Brady – 1 year, $25 million
Brady went from throwing 40 touchdowns in 2020 and a team-record 43 TDs last year to tossing just 17 this season with four games left. While he’s only thrown five interceptions, Brady has not been as sharp this season. That’s reflected in his 78.5 PFF grade, and that’s a mighty fall from his 92 grade last year and 92.4 grade in 2020. Brady’s deep ball has been hit and miss this year, as recently chronicled by Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo.

Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

WR Chris Godwin ­– 3 years, $60 million ($20 million avg.)
The Bucs re-signed Godwin knowing that the 2022 season would be a comeback year for the talented receiver, who was coming off a torn ACL at the end of 2021. Tampa Bay is hoping that 2022 will be a bounce-back year for Godwin in terms of being fully back from that injury. Godwin missed two games with a hamstring and has 73 catches for 702 yards and a pair of TDs this season. His 9.6-yard average is the lowest of his career, and he’s scored the fewest number of TDs since his rookie season when he had one.

WR Mike Evans – 5 years, $82.5 million ($16.5 million avg.)
After recording 13 touchdowns in 2020 while helping the Bucs win the Super Bowl and setting a new franchise record with 14 TDs last year, Evans only has three scores this year. His last TD came in Week 4 and he and Tom Brady’s connection has been off this year. Evans has the lowest PFF grade of his career at 70.4. By comparison, Evans had an 84.6 PFF grade as a rookie in 2014 and a career-best 91.7 grade in 2016 when he made his first Pro Bowl.

LT Donovan Smith – 2 years, $31 million ($15.5 million avg.)
Smith’s down season was documented in Fab 1. He’s leading the league in penalties with 11 and has already given up six sacks with four games left in the season. It’s by far his worst NFL season – and there are still four more games to go.

CB Carlton Davis III – 3 years, $44.5 million ($14.8 million avg.)
Davis has missed a pair of games due to injury and hasn’t played well when he’s been on the field. He has a forced fumble and a fumble recovery, but has yet to record an interception and has just seven pass breakups. Davis’ 61.8 Pro Football Focus grade is his worst since a 61.2 grade during his rookie season in 2018. Jamel Dean is actually the best cornerback in Tampa Bay this year.

LB Lavonte David – 2 years, $25 million ($12.25 million avg.)
David has played well, but not great in 2022. Known for making splash plays throughout his career, David has gone from playmaker to just a “steady Eddie” this season. In 13 games, David has just two sacks and finally got his first takeaway of the year last week in San Francisco when he recovered a fumble. If he wants to come back at age 33, Tampa Bay will undoubtedly ask for a justifiable pay cut from his $12.5 million base salary in 2022.

Bucs WR Russell Gage – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

WR Russell Gage – 3 years, $30 million ($10 million avg.)
Gage has been battling a hamstring injury since training camp and has not been worth the money – certainly not $10 million per year. After back-to-back seasons in Atlanta with at least 66 catches for 770 yards and four touchdowns, Gage has only played in nine games this year with just 32 receptions for 254 yards and a career-low 7.9 average and two touchdowns. Gage has a $12,166,666 cap value next year and the Bucs can’t cut him until 2024 unless they take a massive dead cap hit of $9,333,334 in 2023.

DT Akiem Hicks – 1 year, $8 million
The Bucs hoped Hicks would be a better, younger version of Ndamukong Suh and bring more of a pass rush due to his athleticism. But the 32-year old has battled a foot injury that has limited him to just six games. Hicks has yet to record a sack or a takeaway, and his four tackles against the Seahawks were the most of any game he’s played in this season.

RB Leonard Fournette – 3 years, $21 million ($7 million avg.)
Fournette had a very good year last season as a full-time starter. He ran for 812 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. This year, he’s rushed for only 524 yards and three scores, while his average has fallen to 3.5 yards per carry. Fournette has maintained his production as a receiver with 55 catches for 380 yards (6.9 avg.) and three TDs. But he was a much better value at $2.5 million rather than $7 million per season. Rachaad White is the future at running back for the Bucs.

Bucs WR Julio Jones – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

WR Julio Jones – 1 year, $6 million
Jones has missed five games due to a knee injury this year and only has two games in which he’s recorded at least 50 yards. At age 33, Jones is just about shot, and has only made a handful of meaningful catches out of his 22 receptions for 284 yards (12.9 avg.). And Jones has only scored two touchdowns this year. The bottom line is that he hasn’t come close to being worth $6 million this season – so far.

DL Will Gholston – 1 year, $4.5 million
After recording a career-high 4.5 sacks last year, Gholston is the lone starter or rotational defensive lineman who has yet to record a sack this season. At age 31, he seems to have slowed down and he’s more of a one-dimensional run-stuffer than ever. If he returns next year, it may have to be for a lesser salary as the Bucs’ will have a tighter salary cap year in 2023.

This isn’t really Licht’s fault. With the exception of new free agents like Gage, Jones and Hicks, the players who were paid handsomely by Licht and Greenberg certainly deserved it at the time those contracts were done. Fournette may be the lone exception there. It’s just been a baffling season to have so many stars fail to shine at the same time in the same season.

Some of these Bucs will be free agents next year, including Brady, David, Hicks, Jones, Gholston. Others, such as Fournette, Smith and perhaps Gage, might require some tough decisions by Licht, head coach Todd Bowles and the front office in the offseason. Ultimately, the Bucs have to hope that the players they have invested the most money in rebound and play better in 2023.

Or even earlier with four games left in the 2022 campaign.

FAB 3. Matchups To Watch: Bucs Offense vs. Bengals Defense

Each week, you can find five matchups to watch on offense and defense in my SR’s Fab 5 column. Here are the five key matchups to watch on offense when the Bucs offense tries to match points with Cincinnati.

RT Josh Wells vs. DE Sam Hubbard

Hubbard is leading the Bengals in sacks with 6.5 sacks. He’s a big, physical defender who can cause problems for Tampa Bay as a run defender or as a pass rusher. Hubbard would have had real problems against Tristan Wirfs, but has a much more favorable matchup against the Bucs’ backup tackle.

Wells has actually survived the last two weeks against Cameron Jordan and Nick Bosa. Neither had a sack against Wells nor did either wreck the Bucs’ game plan. Bosa had two pressures against Wells and Jordan had just one. Wells needs to hang on for one more game against Hubbard before Wirfs returns.

ADVANTAGE: Hubbard

LG Nick Leverett DT DJ Reader

Bucs LG Nick Leverett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Reader is a massive defensive tackle at 6-foot-3, 335 pounds and is the highest-graded defender by Pro Football Focus at 88.9. While he has yet to record a sack this season, Reader has 16 pressures and is very effective at shutting down the interior run game due to his size.

Leverett will have his hands full with such an enormous defensive tackle like Reader. The first-year starting guard has a scrappy demeanor and won’t back down from anyone – even if he’s outweighed by 20-30 pounds. Leverett will need to be stout at the point of attack and use proper technique to have a chance to move Reader off the line of scrimmage.

ADVANTAGE: Reader

QB Tom Brady vs. FS Jessie Bates

Bates does a good job of roaming the middle of the field as Cincinnati’s free safety. He’s one of the league’s better safeties and has tied his career high with three interceptions on the season. In five years, Bates has 15 career interceptions and is excellent in coverage.

Brady has only thrown five interceptions this season and does a great job of protecting the ball. But all of his INTs this season have come in the middle of the field, and that’s where Bates operates. Brady threw a season-high two picks last week at San Francisco and will need to be extra careful while throwing passes down the seam.

ADVANTAGE: Push

WR Mike Evans vs. CB Cam Taylor-Britt

Bucs WRs Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bengals like Taylor-Britt’s physical style. That’s why the rookie is in the starting lineup. He’s given up one touchdown but has yet to record an interception. Taylor-Britt isn’t tall at 6-foot, but he has the aggressiveness and scrappiness to give Evans a run for his money.

Evans has had a really down year with just three touchdown catches. He had 10 TDs at this point last year en route to a career-high and franchise-record 14. Evans needs to rise up down the stretch and get on the same page as Tom Brady and make more plays in the passing game, especially in the red zone.

ADVANTAGE: Evans

WR Chris Godwin vs. SS Von Bell

Bell leads the Bengals with a career-high four interceptions this season, in addition to a sack and a forced fumble. He’s an exceptional box defender and also covers well in the slot. He’ll have his hands full against Godwin, who is rounding back into form late in the season.

Godwin has started to come on as he recovers from the knee injury he suffered nearly a year ago. He’s finally caught a few touchdown passes and started to gain more separation from defenders down the seam. Godwin will need to bring his best game to have success against Bell, who is having a career year in coverage.

ADVANTAGE: Push 

FAB 4. Matchups To Watch: Bucs Defense vs. Bengals Offense

Each week, you can find five matchups to watch on offense and defense in my SR’s Fab 5 column. Here are the five key matchups to watch on defense for the Bucs as they try to corral all of the Bengals’ weapons on offense.

LB Devin White vs. RB Joe Mixon

Mixon has become a real star in Cincinnati. He’s rushed for 701 yards and six touchdowns with a 4.1-yard average. Mixon is a three-down threat, catching 43 passes for 324 yards (7.5 avg.) and a pair of TDs. He’s an intriguing blend of speed, size and power.

White needs to step up and make plays. After recording a season-high 13 tackles and half a sack against Cleveland, he has only recorded 10 total tackles and no splash plays over the last two games against New Orleans and San Francisco. White has 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles on the year, but the Bucs need more. If they’re going to beat the Bengals, White needs to be a stud.

ADVANTAGE: Mixon

CB Zyon McCollum vs. WR Ja’Marr Chase

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Without Jamel Dean on the field, Chase should have a field day against the rookie cornerback. Chase has missed four games due to injury, but still leads the Bengals with 64 catches for 821 yards (12.8 avg.) and seven touchdowns. He’s a big, fast, physical receiver who should have a monster game in Tampa Bay.

McCollum not only struggles in coverage during his rookie season, but he is also a sub-par tackler. It’s one thing to not cover well, but the poor tackling only compounds the issue. This is an absolute mismatch and Bengals head coach Zac Taylor should try to pair Chase against McCollum as often as possible. Unless Sean Murphy-Bunting is able to play. But even if SMB plays, Chase should still own this matchup.

ADVANTAGE: Chase

CB Carlton Davis III vs. WR Tee Higgins

Higgins is a big receiver at 6-foot-4, 219 pounds and leads the team with 861 yards with 60 receptions (14.4 avg.) and five touchdowns. As dynamic as Chase is, Higgins is more of a Steady Eddie with some playmaking ability. He’s a handful to cover and stepped up when Chase missed four games due to injury.

Davis has struggled after getting paid in free agency. He’s had a down year and has not even recorded a single interception this year. Davis has battled some injuries, but just hasn’t been a consistent playmaker this year in Tampa Bay. Actually, the injured Jamel Dean has played better. Davis needs to step up and finish the season strong.

ADVANTAGE: Higgins

CB Dee Delaney vs. WR Tyler Boyd

Bucs CB Dee Delaney – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Boyd is the Bengals’ slot receiver and just as big of a playmaker as Chase and Higgins are. In fact, Boyd has 45 catches for 655 yards and is averaging 14.6 yards per catch, which is the best on the team. Boyd also has two touchdowns on the season and is one of the best slot receivers in the game.

Delaney is filling in at slot corner for Antoine Winfield Jr. If Murphy-Bunting is able to play, the Bucs may play McCollum here in the slot ahead of Delaney. Either way, Boyd might have a field day against either backup nickel cornerback playing in the slot on Sunday. At 6-foot-2, 203 pounds, Boyd is a difficult matchup.

ADVANTAGE: Boyd

DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches vs. LG Alex Cappa

Cappa will want to play well against his former team. He’s been a solid addition for the Bengals via free agency and has helped better protect Joe Burrow. The Bucs know Cappa and he knows Tampa Bay’s defensive line. Cappa is lucky to be facing Nunez-Roches instead of Vita Vea, who is injured.

Nunez-Roches is a much better reserve than he is a starter. But due to Vea’s injury he’s thrust into the starting lineup again. Nunez-Roches is actually having a good year as a run defender and as a pass rusher with a career-high two sacks. But playing 25 plays is one thing and playing 50 plays is a different story.

ADVANTAGE: Push

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

• HOLD UP! Bucs left tackle Donovan Smith has 31 career holding penalties. That’s the most in the NFL since Smith entered the league in 2015. Smith leads the league with 11 penalties this season, according to Pro Football Focus.

• HANG ON! Bucs rookie running back Rachaad White fumbled the ball for the third time this season last Sunday at San Francisco. White never had a fumble in college, but is near the top of fumbles this year in his first season in the NFL.

• RED FLAG! The Bucs have struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone this year. Here are Tom Brady’s numbers in the red zone since arriving in Tampa Bay in 2020.

CELSIUS PEWTER REPORT TAILGATE PREGAME SHOW AT WALK-ONS

Bucs fans and Pewter Report fans can join the PR staff for a LIVE pregame show before each Bucs game – home and away – at Walk-Ons Sports Bistreaux. The CELSIUS Pewter Report Tailgate Show is presented by Age Rejuvenation. The pre-game show for the Bucs-Bengals game this Sunday will begin at 2:30 at the Midtown Tampa location and Pewter GameDay begins at 4:25 p.m. ET.

For those Bucs fans outside of the Tampa Bay area, every CELSIUS Pewter Report Tailgate Show presented by Age Rejuvenation will be streamed live on the PewterReportTV YouTube channel.

The Pewter Report Tailgate Show will feature a pair of Pewter Reporters and former Bucs tight end John Gilmore each week, offering up all of the analysis and matchups for that week’s Bucs game live on location. There will be CELSIUS and PR giveaways in addition to game day food and drink specials at Walk-Ons.

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The CELSIUS Pewter Report Tailgate Show presented by Age Rejuvenation is an hour-and-a-half show and begins two hours prior to kickoff each week. Thirty minutes prior to kickoff, Matt Matera and Josh Queipo take over on the livestream and add their insight and pregame analysis. Then, Pewter GameDay begins as the Bucs kick off with Matera and a special guest providing insight and commentary throughout the game.

THIS WEEK’S PEWTER REPORT PODCASTS

• BUCS-BENGALS PREVIEWS ON THE PEWTER REPORT PODCAST: The Pewter Report Podcast is energized by CELSIUS and broadcasts four live episodes each week. Next week’s schedule will feature PR Podcasts on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday as the Bucs travel to play the Cardinals in Arizona on Christmas night.

Matt Matera and Scott Reynolds dissect the Bucs’ 35-7 loss to the 49ers on Sunday’s postgame podcast.

Matera and Reynolds breakdown the Bucs’ chances of winning the NFC South division.

Matera and Reynolds analyze the Bucs’ upcoming game against the Bengals on Wednesday.

On Thursday’s podcast, Matera, J.C. Allen and Adam Slivon discussed whether the Bucs defense can slow down Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense.

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