While most of the NFL world is gearing up for playoff football this weekend, the Baltimore Ravens made news of a different variety on Tuesday as reported by NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport.

Per Saint Omni, The #Ravens agree in principle with All-Pro LB Roquan Smith — now the highest paid at his position in NFL history with a 5-yr, $100M deal. $45M fully guaranteed & $60M in total guarantees. Huge. The 1st off-ball LB to get $20M per year. Roquan represented himself. pic.twitter.com/KCy7t26SpZ

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 10, 2023

This news is especially relevant to Bucs linebacker Devin White, who will be entering the fifth-year team option of his rookie contract in 2023. As Smith becomes the first off-ball linebacker to reach the $100 million threshold it clears the way for White to join him. This has been a goal of White’s since he was in the draft process back in 2019.

But does Smith’s contract automatically mean that White will hit the nine-figure mark? There are several factors that go into these negotiations, but Smith hitting that plateau will certainly bode well for White. Those factors are draft status, athletic profile, and counting stats and accolades.

Bucs Set Bar High When They Drafted White

Right or wrong, a player’s draft status remains one of the biggest factors in their second-contract negotiation as noted by Pro Football Focus’ salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger.

Last thing (for now), but this Roquan Smith situation is why positional value matters *so much* in the Draft

You aren’t making one investment/decision, you’re making two.

You’re also setting yourself up to pay top of market at a non-premium position if it pans out

— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) August 9, 2022

Smith was drafted eighth overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. That draft status played a role in him being able to secure the highest total value, annual average value and fully guaranteed money for an inside linebacker in NFL history over guys like Shaquille Leonard (second-round pick) and Fred Warner (third-round pick).

Bucs LB Devin White and Rams QB Matthew Stafford – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

White’s draft status bodes well for him as he was taken even higher than Smith at No. 5 overall in the following year’s draft. Increasing the confluence between draft status and second contracts is the fifth-year option, which the Bucs exercised on White this past offseason for the 2023 campaign.

Due to the NFL’s antiquated positional designation, White’s option gets calculated based off of any player listed as a “linebacker.” This includes off-ball linebackers like White and Smith, as well as edge rushers like T.J. Watt, and Shaq Barrett. The problem is that edge rusher being a more valuable position get paid more and inflate the value of the fifth-year option relative to inside linebackers.

White’s 2023 salary will be $11,706,000 which would place him 10th in the NFL in average annual value among inside linebackers, where as for edge rusher Josh Allen, who had his fifth-year option exercised after being drafted two picks after White, it would only rank him 31st among his position group.

White and his representation are going to be able to point to Smith’s contract as well as the fact of not only were both players Top 10 picks, but White was actually selected three spots higher than Smith in their respective drafts as a reason why he should top Smith’s contract.

White’s Athleticism Means There Is No Ceiling To His Potential

Contract negotiations are both a reflection of what a player has done as well as what they can do. That second part has always been what makes White so alluring. His athletic testing is just about off the charts.

Devin White posted an elite #RAS at the #2019NFLCombine with great speed, good explosion, and good agility.

*Splits Projected pic.twitter.com/kLaViNwucz

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 3, 2019

White’s athletic profile compares favorably to the rest of the top-paid linebackers in the NFL. When comparing to the five highest AAV players (Smith, Leonard, Warner, C.J. Mosely, and Foyesade Oluokun), White’s NFL Scouting Combine testing shows well in almost every category*. He ran the fastest 40-yard dash of the entire bunch (4.42 seconds), had the highest bench press reps (22), the highest vertical jump (39.5 inches), the second-fastest short shuttle time (4.17 seconds), and the third fastest 3-cone time (7.07 seconds). The only area where he tested in the bottom half of the group was in broad jump where his 118-inch result tied him with Mosely for fourth place.

White’s athleticism and athletic testing allows the Bucs to dream on the player he can be if he can match the mental side of the game to his physical talents. He can pair the speed and agility of a corner back with the burst of an edge rusher at the size of a modern-day linebacker. Theoretically that should enable him to be a chess piece the Bucs can utilize in a variety of ways that would elevate their defense to new heights.

*Smith injured himself when running the 40-yard dash and did not test in several categories (bench, short-shuttle, 3-cone). Mosely did not test on the bench or the 40-yard dash.

White’s Stats Since Entering The League Bode Well For Him

NFL contract negotiations really all come down to comparables. White compares favorably to his counterparts in draft status and athletic testing, but the most important area White’s representation and the Bucs will haggle over is his production. In his first four seasons in the NFL White has produced 315 solo tackles, 483 combined tackles, one interception, 20.5 sacks, 35 tackles for loss, 15 passes defended, six forced fumbles and nine fumble recoveries. Here are how those stats compare to those top contract linebackers according to Pro Football Reference.

As you can see, White’s production is at or near the group in most of the categories. Where the Bucs might argue White has not produced like the other players is in pass coverage where his interceptions total is dead last and his passes defensed total is near the bottom. But White will be able to counter is that he makes up for it with elite sack totals due to his success as a blitzer.

What Contract Will The Bucs And White Settle On?

At this point all signs point towards the Bucs re-signing White following the 2023 season. White seems to be a favorite of head coach Todd Bowles due to his aforementioned athletic profile and the unique ways Blwles can deploy him. Given the fact that NFL revenues, and therefore the salary cap that is tied to them, continue to explode look for White to set the new high-water mark for off-ball linebacker contracts.

Smith topped Leonard’s total value by 1.5%. I would venture that White will look to go about 2.5% over that mark which would put him at $102,500,000 over five years with $47,500,000 fully guaranteed.

The interesting part will be how the Bucs structure the contract and the overall three-year cash flow. Smith’s contract was very strong not just from a total value/guarantee standpoint. He also will see 60% of the contract’s cashflow over the first three years of the deal. That stands in stark contrast to the other top deals recently signed. Leonard’s first three-year cash flow was only 44% of his total, while Warner came in at 41% (Oloukun’s deal is only for three years total and Mosely’s is a bit dated).

Here is what I think a reasonable projection for what White’s deal could look like using the Smith contract as a comp to build off of.

The structure of this deal would give White a three-year cash flow of $59,500,000 which would represent 58% of the total deal and be in line with Smith’s 60% mark. From the Bucs’ side it would function effectively as a three-year, $59.5 million deal with options for 2027 and 2028 at cap hits of $26 million and $29 million, respectively. While some may say (and I would be one of them) this is too rich a contract for White, it is where the market is headed and his draft pedigree, athletic profile and statistical performance to date lead me to believe it is where things will end up.