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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account each week in the Bucs Monday Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Monday Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: Hypothetically if the Ravens use the franchise tag on Jackson and he doesn’t want to go back to them, could the Bucs afford him even though they’re in some cap trouble? This is if Tom Brady leaves, of course.

ANSWER: The Bucs do want Tom Brady to return for a fourth season in Tampa Bay, and they’ll pursue that option first until Brady either re-signs, retires or expresses a desire to sign elsewhere in free agency. Only then could I see the Bucs opening up their search for another starting-caliber quarterback.

While the Bucs would be interested in Lamar Jackson, prying him loose from Baltimore would be challenging. The Ravens have tried to sign Jackson, who is serving as his own agent, to a long-term contract but have been turned down. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said that Jackson, who missed the end of the season, including the Ravens’ playoff loss to the Bengals due to a PCL strain, will get the franchise tag from Baltimore if he’s not signed to a long-term extension.

The question is – will it be the exclusive franchise tag where other teams cannot sign him to an offer sheet, or will it be the non-exclusive franchise tag that would allow other teams to make him an offer. An exclusive franchise tag would cost Baltimore $45.4 million, which might be cost prohibitive for Baltimore. If the Ravens go the cheaper, non-exclusive route and match any offer he gets, they’ll be forced to pay Jackson that amount. If they don’t, Baltimore would lose Jackson, but receive two first-round draft picks as compensation from the team that signed him.

Bucs ILB Devin White and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – Photo by: USA Today

That’s a steep price to pay except in a case like Tampa Bay’s, where the Bucs are already picking in the 20s – so it’s not like the team is surrendering a Top 10 pick. Also, if the Bucs acquired Jackson from the Ravens, the expectation would be that Tampa Bay would be in the playoffs again in 2023, meaning that next year’s first-round draft pick might also be a lower selection.

If Brady were to leave, the Bucs would likely have to spend an early-round pick on a quarterback anyways, so it makes sense for the Bucs to be interested in Jackson. There will be a new offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay next year to replace Byron Leftwich, and Todd Bowles isn’t beholden to a pocket passer the way Bruce Arians was.

Yet, the biggest hurdle might be Jackson’s contract demands, which is a fully guaranteed deal in the neighborhood of at least $230 million over five years. Would the Glazers want to pay that? They’ve made big deals before, trading for wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson in 2000 and head coach Jon Gruden in 2002, so we’ll see.

QUESTION: Next year’s Bucs roster looks like it might be a mess because of salary cap reasons, even if Tom Brady comes back. What’s PR’s current outlook?

ANSWER: There are a lot of questions about Tampa Bay’s 2023 roster that have to be answered first. The Bucs have 23 unrestricted free agents, including quarterback Tom Brady and four starters on defense. Figuring out the quarterback position will be the first mission of general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles this offseason. Getting an answer from Brady about whether or not he wants to play another year at age 46 sooner rather than later is of great importance. That will determine if the Bucs are interested in trading for a quarterback like Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson or Las Vegas’ Derek Carr, or pursuing a veteran in free agency.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Complicating matters is the fact that the Bucs will be salary cap strapped in 2023. As of right now, the Bucs are $44,643,921 over the 2023 salary cap, according to OverTheCap.com, which is the second-worst cap situation in the league. This is due to big contracts with voidable years coming due from the team’s Super Bowl. At some point in time, the Bucs have to stop kicking the can down the road and pay off the credit card bill. That will happen either this year or next year and will severely limit the team’s ability to sign new free agents and re-signing some of their own players.

However, a quick look around the NFC South shows that there is not one team that is clearly on the rise and ready to grab the division title from Tampa Bay. The reason why is due to the quarterback position. Will New Orleans keep Andy Dalton and/or Jameis Winston? Is Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder a legit starting-caliber quarterback? Is Sam Darnold in Carolina’s future plans? Will Brady return to Tampa Bay?

Whoever winds up with the best situation at quarterback in 2023 will likely determine the winner of the NFC South division next year. That leads to an automatic playoff berth, as the 8-9 Bucs benefited from this season. If Brady is back, then pencil in the Bucs winning the division again and making the playoffs for a fourth straight year.

QUESTION: Since the Saints are giving the Panthers permission to interview Sean Payton is it possible the Bucs would be interested in interviewing him, too?

ANSWER: Probably not, and I think the Saints are giving the Panthers permission to interview Sean Payton to help drive up the price tag on a potential trade. New Orleans owns Payton’s rights and any team looking to hire him as their new head coach would have to trade for him and give the Saints compensation in the form of draft picks – likely multiple, high picks. There are several teams that are interested in Payton, including Denver, Houston and Arizona. All of those teams, including Carolina, have requested an opportunity to interview Payton.

But the Saints will have some say in deciding which team Payton will get traded to, and the more suitors for his services, the higher the bidding is likely to go. It’s doubtful that the Saints would want to trade Payton within the division, although it’s been done before. The Patriots traded for Bill Belichick in 2000 and the Jets have regretted it ever since. And of course, the Patriots traded Bill Parcells to the Jets a few years earlier back in the 1990s as well.

So in the end, I don’t see the Panthers or the Bucs ultimately landing Payton in a trade. The Glazers are quite fond of Todd Bowles, making him the league’s highest-paid defensive coordinator in 2021 after winning Super Bowl LV and then agreeing to him being Bruce Arians’ replacement this season. While the 8-9 regular season record wasn’t anything to celebrate, the fact that the Bucs are division champions and have a home playoff game made the Glazers quite happy.

One other thing to consider is that any team that trades for Payton will have to concede personnel power, too. Payton, a Bill Parcells disciple, wants full control over the roster through free agency and the NFL Draft. So in essence, he wants to be the head coach and have some general manager powers as well. That’s a non-starter in Tampa Bay, as general manager Jason Licht has built a Super Bowl-caliber roster before and is one of the best in the business at acquiring talent.

QUESTION: Why would Antoine Winfield Jr. battle against CeeDee Lamb when Carlton Davis III is playing? Winfield’s a great safety but we saw struggle one-on-one with D.J. Moore – and Lamb is a lot better.

ANSWER: Antoine Winfield Jr.’s role in Tampa Bay’s defense this year has been to play safety in base defense and then move inside to the slot in nickel defense with veteran Logan Ryan typically coming on the field to join Mike Edwards at safety. According to Pro Football Focus, Winfield has played 410 snaps out of his 764 defensive snaps this year at nickel cornerback, giving him the most experience there out of any Bucs defensive back during the season.

Bucs S Antoine Winfield, Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has played 535 snaps in the slot and 469 snaps at wide receiver this season, according to Pro Football Focus. In the Bucs’ 19-3 win in Dallas in Week 1, Winfield matched up with Lamb and held him to one catch for 13 yards on three targets. Carlton Davis III faced Lamb on two of his targets and held him to no catches – both of those reps were in the slot. Fellow cornerback Jamel Dean squared off against Lamb on four targets and held him zero catches – one of them resulted in a pass breakup. Ryan had one targeted rep against Lamb and gave up one catch for 16 yards.

In the end, it was a collective effort to hold Lamb to two catches for 29 yards in the season opener and it will be that way again in the Wild Card playoff game. I expect that Davis and Winfield will both see some time against Lamb, and it was surprising that Dean actually faced more targets when covering the Cowboys’ star receiver in the season opener.

Yes, Winfield did struggle against Carolina’s D.J. Moore in Week 17, allowing three catches on three targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. Dean actually got targeted four times while covering Moore in that game and surrendered two catches for 61 yards.

We did see Davis excel in playing man coverage against Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase exclusively, holding him to just three catches for 32 yards in that game. Davis broke up four passes and had his lone interception against Chase, so perhaps Bowles will devise a similar game plan and have Davis trail Lamb wherever he goes.

QUESTION: Not a question, but more a hope. I’m hoping numerical coincidences play out, as the 2002 season ended with the Lombardi Trophy and the 2020 season ended with the Lombardi. Now we’re in the 2022 season –  just 2’s and 0’s again.

ANSWER: That could be a good omen for the 2022 Bucs, but they’ll have to go through the Cowboys, the 49ers and the winner of the Giants and Eagles playoff game to get to the Super Bowl first. Yet, if the Bucs are locked in to Super Bowl success in years that only have 2’s and 0’s, Tampa Bay won’t win another championship until 2200 and none of us will be around to see it. So they better win it this year.