In an ongoing series leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, we at Pewter Report are taking a stroll down memory lane. Looking at the past six drafts the Bucs and general manager Jason Licht have had we are attempting to evaluate how good each draft was based on the players picked at each spot, the players that went shortly thereafter and the next couple of players taken at the position addressed. Here are the links to the 2017-2020 drafts that myself and Adam Slivon have evaluated:

2017

2018

2019

2020

Today I will be examining Tampa Bay’s 2021 draft.

Licht and the Bucs brass found themselves in the enviable position of picking 32nd overall in 2021 after winning the Super Bowl the year prior. Furthermore, the team brought back every consequential player from that championship season, leaving the team with no “holes” on the roster, or so they thought. The following season would prove the hubris of that mindset.

Pick No. 32 – OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

With Jason Pierre-Paul north of 30 and entering the final year of his deal, the Bucs prioritized edge rusher with their initial pick. Tryon-Shoyinka was a true upside play for the team. At the time of the draft Tryon-Shoyinka had not played in over a year. He opted out of the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season, leaving the Bucs with very little tape to base their decision on. What tape they did see was raw but promising, and their decision was buoyed by his incredible athletic profile.

Joe Tryon is a DE prospect in the 2021 draft class. He scored a 9.3 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 97 out of 1362 DE from 1987 to 2021. https://t.co/gTBOElOjHF #RAS via @Mathbomb pic.twitter.com/GSd4fdqfOe

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 12, 2021

Other players taken within 15 picks of note:

CB Tyson Campbell

WR Elijah Moore

RB Javonte Williams

OL Landon Dickerson

DT Christian Barmore

CB Asante Samuel Jr.

Next two players at position:

OLB Azeez Ojulari

OLB Joseph Ossai

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs fans have come for Tryon-Shoyinka’s head (and mine too!) due to a lack of sack production over his first two years. With eight sacks over a year-and-a-half of starting the finishing part of his game has left a lot to be desired. But his play-to-play performance has been much more consistent and promising. His 46 pressures last year ranked 32nd in the NFL among edge rushers and he improved year-over-year as a run defender who can set the edge.

Still, there is a good argument to be made that Ojulari has the better outlook at this point in their careers. In 198 less career pass rush snaps he only trails Tryon-Shoyinka by 18 pressures while also registering 5.5 more sacks through their first two seasons.

Beyond Ojulari there were multiple players taken after JTS who have put up promising starts to their careers. Campbell is coming off of an extremely successful sophomore season and looks poised to be the Jaguars top corner moving into 2023. Moore has shown flashes of being a playmaker and the Browns are banking on that in trading for him. Javonte Williams was emerging as a top back in the NFL before an injury ended his 2022 campaign prematurely.

Dickerson helped the Eagles have one of the top two offensive lines in football on their way to a Super Bowl appearance. And Barmore and Samuel have been solid contributors for playoff teams since entering the league.

A reasonable grade for this pick is a C- considering the other available talent and how they have fared to this point. However, if Tryon-Shoyinka can simply finish plays at a more league-average rate in 2023 he can have a year-three jump similar to that of Rashan Gary of the Packers.

Pick No. 64 – QB Kyle Trask

With quarterback Tom Brady entering his 22nd NFL season it was reasonable for the Bucs to want to start to develop a plan for a post-Brady world. And so the Bucs decided that with the last pick of the second round to take QB Kyle Trask out of Florida. Trask would be the sixth quarterback taken that year, and the first after the first round.

Many would criticize the pick as a waste given that the team was in a “win-now” mode following their Super Bowl win the year prior. Licht and former head coach Bruce Arians pushed back on that rhetoric stating that the team was so stacked that they had very few spots on their roster where a player selected would actually make the team. Quarterback was one of those spots and so they took a shot on the guy they believed was the best of the tier 2/3 guys after the big five.

Other players taken within 15 picks of note:

QB Davis Mills

DT Alim McNeill

DT Milton Williams

CB Paulson Adebo

WR Josh Palmer

Next two players at position:

QB Kellen Mond

QB Davis Mills

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: USA Today

The flaw in the Bucs thinking with regards to how they lined up their draft by positional need in citing how “stacked” their roster was not considering the value of upgrading the floor of certain positional groups. And since Trask was picked the team has shown skeptical faith in the now third-year signal caller. Following Brady’s initial retirement, the Bucs re-signed backup Blaine Gabbert to compete with Trask before welcoming back the GOAT with open arms.

And this year, rather than setting up the quarterback room to support Trask’s ascension to QB1 as heir-apparent to Brady, they have brought in Baker Mayfield who is most likely headed into camp as the de facto QB1.

Let’s not kid ourselves here. This is Baker’s job to lose. That leaves Trask looking very realistically staring down the barrel of entering the final year of his rookie deal with almost no regular season experience. If you think the Bucs will be ready to turn the reins over to him at that point then I have some beachfront property in Lincoln, Nebraska I would like to sell you.

Mills has proven to be capable of competent play, but the Texans are ready to move on from him as their starter with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft. McNeill is now a solid starting nose tackle for the Lions young and improving defense while Williams has become a very solid rotational piece of the Eagles vaunted pass rush. Adebo started 12 games last year for New Orleans, working as a quality CB2 to Marshon Lattimore while recording 60 tackles and seven passes defensed.

Lastly, Palmer put up 72 catches for 769 yards and three touchdowns for a Chargers team that dealt with injuries to their top two receivers all year. He enters 2023 as a promising WR3 for them.

Unless Trask has a magical training camp, beats out Baker for the starting gig and then leads the Bucs to a playoff win this pick is solidly an F. A second-round pick on a guy who hasn’t even proven he can provide solid backup quarterback level play is a waste no matter how stacked the team’s roster may or may not have been.

And while I don’t knock the process of trying to find the next quarterback while the current one is still playing well (see: Philadelphia and San Francisco), it is the process of deciding the team’s floor was so high at almost every position group that they pigeon-holed themselves into a few reaches (this one included) that I take issue with.

Pick No. 95 – OL Robert Hainsey

Hainsey was almost exclusively a right tackle at Notre Dame, but when the Bucs selected him towards the back half of the third round, they foresaw him converting to the interior of the offensive line as a center. Behind starter Ryan Jensen the Bucs didn’t have a reliable option after the retirement of AQ Shipley due to injury. And so center made a logical option for Tampa Bay.

Other players taken within 15 picks of note:

OL Quinn Meinerz

LB Baron Browning

WR Amon Ra St. Brown

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

RB Michael Carter

Next two players at position:

OL Quinn Meinerz

OL Drew Dalman

Hainsey proved in 2022 that this was a relatively successful pick, providing the insurance at the position the team envisioned when they selected him. Starter Ryan Jensen suffered a knee injury that was thought to be season-ending in the second practice of training camp and Hainsey stepped in and provided serviceable play as the starter all year. His 66.7 overall grade from Pro Football Focus was 14th overall at the position.

Dalman ranked just behind Hainsey at 16th overall for centers this past season for the Falcons. Stevenson has established himself as a feature back with over 1,000 yards rushing and 450 yards receiving. Carter has become a reliable complimentary back in his own right for the Jets.

Meinerz is now a quality guard for the Broncos. He has become the player most Bucs fans thought he might be when he became a cult hero to them during the pre-draft process that year. His teammate Browning had a decent rookie season as an inside linebacker. Denver decided to move him to edge rusher this past season and the results were encouraging. His 38 pressures in 284 pass rush snaps were very impressive. If he can continue to acclimate to the position he could become a steal.

This year will be the crux of how this pick should be graded. Right now you can call it a solid B+. However, Hainsey isn’t necessarily assured a starting spot on the 2023 offensive line. Jensen is returning to reclaim his starting center spot. Nick Leverett played decently at left guard last year.

There is a world where the Bucs draft an offensive tackle early in the 2023 NFL Draft to start opposite Tristan Wirfs with Luke Goedeke and Leverett manning the guard spots and Hainsey right back on the bench. In that world, this pick immediately drops into the C range.

Pick No. 129 – WR Jaelon Darden

Darden was an exciting but diminutive wide receiver out of North Texas. The Bucs hoped he could succeed the solid performance that Jayden Mickens had given them. The hope for the team was that Darden could not only provide equal or better performance as a returner, but also become a play-making weapon in the passing game.

Other players taken within 15 picks of note:

OLB Rashad Weaver

CB Marco Wilson

Next two players at position:

WR Tylan Wallace

WR Jacob Harris

Bucs WR Jaelon Darden – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Darden never panned out as a receiver or a returner. On special teams Darden could never become comfortable with the idea of contact. He constantly shunned return routes that would put him in harm’s way in favor of getting out of bounds before he got hit. As a receiver, drops and misread routes doomed him to a very limited role. The Bucs eventually released Darden mid-way through the 2022 season.

Wallace and Harris have combined for seven career receptions, so the position was not very plentiful at the time. Wilson and Weaver have received significant playing time this past year, but both have not found much success.

A fourth-round pick not making it to the third year of his contract is a failed pick. Give it an F.

Pick No. 176 – LB KJ Britt

Britt was a big, but physically limited linebacker who the Bucs saw as a developmental replacement for backup linebacker Kevin Minter. Last year Britt was able to move into that role and the team started to talk about him in an even brighter light. Starter Devin White spoke glowingly of Britt in training camp, stating that he saw Britt as his long-term starting mate after Lavonte David retired.

Other players taken within 15 picks of note:

S Talanoa Hufanga

RB Avery Williams

Next two players at position:

LB Cameron McGrone

LB Nick Niemann

Bucs ILBs Devin White and KJ Britt – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Britt has become who the Bucs were hoping he would be when they drafted him. From that standpoint you could consider the pick a success. However, the goal was a depth linebacker with a ceiling that will most likely prevent him from ever being a starter. That’s a questionable process.

In 2022, Hufanga emerged as a rising star in the league. He defines the term “playing like his hair is on fire.” He recorded 97 tackles, five for a loss, four interceptions, nine passes defensed, two forced fumbles and a touchdown in 2022. Williams posted a few carries last year and could move into a larger role this year.

A fifth-round pick on a player who is now a LB3 can be considered a C grade. But looking at the opportunity cost of Hufanga it may sting a little.

Pick No. 251 – CB Chris Wilcox

The Bucs selected Wilcox as a possible depth addition to a secondary that could possibly have seen a tremendous amount of change over the following two seasons. Cornerbacks Carlton Davis III, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean along with safety Mike Edwards would all be needing new contracts by the start of 2023 and so the Bucs took a shot a corner with a physical profile that they gravitated to. The hopes were that Wilcox could be a developmental player to possibly replace one of those veterans in a year or two.

Wilcox never made the Bucs active roster and after they waived him ahead of the 2021 season the Colts claimed his contract. Since then he has spent time on both theirs and the Cardinals practice squads before signing with the Steelers this offseason.

Other players taken within 15 picks of note:

LB Grant Stuard

Next two players at position:

P Pressley Harvin III

RB Jermar Jefferson

LB Grant Stuard

Bucs CB Chris WIlcox – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With only eight picks remaining in the draft after Wilcox’s selection there isn’t much in the way of opportunities for other players to outshine him. Harvin has been a solid punter for the Steelers. Stuard has become a special teams ace. And Jefferson scored two touchdowns and averaged almost five yards per carry on just 15 carries in 2021 before not playing at all in 2022 for the Lions. All of those can be considered success stories beyond what Wilcox has been able to contribute.

You can give this pick an “F” if you like because the Bucs have seen no return on it. However, the truth is that is what happens with the vast majority of players taken at this point in the draft. For me it gets a C-.

Pick No. 259 – LB Grant Stuard

The Bucs saw Stuard as a high-effort player who could potentially be a special teams ace. And he delivered the goods in year one. Stuard became a bright spot on an underachieving unit. He recorded 15 tackles and a forced fumble almost exclusively on special teams in his rookie year.

Bucs LB Grant Stuard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Other players taken within 15 picks of note:

Not Applicable. Stuard was 2021’s infamous “Mr. Irrelevant”

Next two players at position:

N/A

Stuard’s play was so impressive the Colts agreed to send the Bucs a 2023 sixth-round pick for Stuard and a 2023 seventh-round pick just before the start of the regular season last year. When so many seventh-rounders never crack a roster, the Bucs getting a year of good play plus a better pick two years later has to be considered a win for the draft spot.