In an ongoing summer series, Pewter Report looks at and ranks each position group in the NFC South. So far, we’ve chronicled and ranked the NFC South quarterbacks and running backs. Now it’s on to the division’s wide receivers.

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

The NFC South has an interesting mix of established superstars, and young, emerging playmakers and under-the-radar players with hidden upside. The result is a group of wide receiver rooms that span a wide range of the NFL rankings. For this group I will be looking at public grading metrics while also considering traditional statistics like catches and yards as well as more advanced metrics like yards per route run, average separation, catch rate and contested catch rate. I will be evaluating each group based on their projected top five receivers.

Tampa Bay Bucs

For the first time in this series the Bucs have a real legitimate case for the best room in the NFC South. The 1-2-3 combination of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage is unrivaled across the division. Evans’ accolades are well known around these parts. But for the sake of full disclosure let’s list them briefly. He leads the division in career catches (683), yards (10,434) and touchdowns (81). He has an NFL record nine straight seasons of 1,000 yards receiving or more to start an NFL career. And Evans has never had a season where he recorded a Pro Football Focus grade of less than 73.0.

Evans is very much a number one receiver in the NFL. Evans’ 2.03 career yards per route run would rank Top 20 in every season since he entered the league. And his 56.7% contested catch rate and 101 contested catches are some of the highest in the NFL among active players. Evans’ skillset is predicated on his size and long strides. He makes difficult 50/50 catches and performs much better against man coverage where he can use his large body to physically manhandle his defender.

Evans is a legitimate number one receiver in the NFL. But in the Bucs receiver room he can be considered a 1A who plays the traditional “X” role. And the 1B to Evans’ 1A is Godwin. Over the past four years Godwin has been the engine of the Bucs passing game, averaging 8.3 targets per game to Evans’ 7.6. Leading up to the torn ACL he suffered late in 2021, Godwin had recorded a PFF grade of 80.0 or better in every season of his career and has recorded over 100 targets, 85 catches and 1,000 yards in three of the past four seasons. In 2019 Godwin ranked 7th in the NFL yards after catch per reception.

Bucs WR Russell Gage – Photo by: USA Today

Godwin can thrive in multiple roles including as an “X”, “Z” as well as a big slot. He has the size, speed, burst and agility to execute any role or route that the offense might require.

Gage was signed by the Bucs in 2022 to be a hybrid number two as an insurance policy in case Godwin would not be recovered from his ACL injury by the start of the season. Unfortunately for Gage and the Bucs, he himself suffered a hamstring injury in preseason that hampered him throughout the season. Still, Gage ranked first in the division in average separation (3.3 yards) and 18th in catch rate (72.9%) last year. Over the previous two seasons Gage operated in a number two role for Atlanta, catching 138 of 201 targets for 1,556 yards and eight touchdowns. He can effectively work out of the slot or as a “Z” receiver.

Behind those three is a cavalcade of unproven talent. Incumbent Deven Thompkins flashed in very limited opportunities late in the season after being a standout in the preseason. He currently projects to be a gadget player in the number four role. And rookie Trey Palmer was drafted to provide a deep speed void that Scotty Miller left.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a formidable high-end duo for new quarterback Derek Carr to throw to. Veteran Michael Thomas was one of the best short-to-intermediate receivers in the league from 2016 to 2019. Over those four years Thomas was targeted 584 times and caught 470 passes for 5,512 yards and 32 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Thomas, he has been largely sidelined over the past three seasons due to injury. Over that time period he has only appeared in 10 games, catching 56 of 76 targets for 609 yards and three touchdowns.

When Thomas is in the lineup, he is still a reliable target who can make tough catches over the middle and help an offense move down the field. Thomas has routinely produced catch rates of 72-86% and contested catch rates of 56-80%. These are extremely impressive numbers. Thomas’ career 2.44 yards per route run is higher than both Godwin and Evans. If healthy, Thomas can be an elite possession receiver that can make difficult over-the-middle catches on slants, curls, digs and comebacks. The question s whether Thomas can remain healthy.

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Saints WR Michael Thomas – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Complimenting Thomas is 2022 first-round pick Chris Olave. Olave had a very impressive rookie campaign. He produced 1,044 yards on 72 catches and four touchdowns while posting an 82.5 PFF grade. Olave has an advanced feel for zone coverage and impressive route running skills including an ability to accelerate and decelerate that make him especially difficult to cover. Olave makes a great partner to Thomas. Where Thomas’ average depth of target is a very shallow 8.7 yards, Olave ranked sixth in the NFL at 14.2 yards.

Behind those two is former Steeler James Washington. His best season was 2019 when he caught 44 of 77 targets for 735 yards and three touchdowns. In the three seasons since he has been continually pushed down the Steelers depth chart as a de-prioritized option before signing with the Cowboys in 2022. Over that time, he has 64 catches for 677 yards and seven scores. Washington is best used as a slot receiver who can get vertical but struggles with yards after catch and drops.

Rookie A.T. Perry and former Raider and Falcon Bryan Edwards round out the Saints’ top five receivers. Both players are intriguing in their own rights. Edwards was once compared to some of the greatest receivers to play the game of football by former head coach Jon Gruden. But he failed to beat out extremely pedestrian competition in Atlanta last year.

I had a third-round grade on Perry in this year’s NFL draft. The Saints ended up selecting him in the sixth round. He is a large receiver (6-3, 198 pounds) who has excellent body control and hands who can operate as a deep threat for New Orleans. Don’t be surprised if he is in the top three of this unit by year’s end.

This collection of receivers has high end talent that can rival that of the Bucs. However, the lack of proven depth limits them to the second-best group in the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers

I had to start this write-up with a tweet I recently came across.

5 wrs on this team could be wr1 on another team pic.twitter.com/ogFa284t0d

— swade (@swadefb) June 2, 2023

With all due respect to the poster, I respectfully and forcefully disagree. As a matter of fact, from a pure math basis, Panthers tied with the Falcons for the worst WR room in the NFC South division. I am giving a slight edge to Carolina simply because I like their depth more than Atlanta’s.

The problem with Carolina is they lack a true number one receiver. Looking at their receiver depth and there are a lot of interesting players. Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr., Jonathan Mingo and Laviska Shenault. However, who amongst this group is a legitimate number one receiver?

Thielen is the de facto leader in the clubhouse due to his veteran status and accolades. Thielen is coming off of arguably the worst season of his career. Despite receiving over 100 targets with the Vikings, Thielen recorded his lowest yards per catch (10.2), yards after catch per reception (2.3) and fourth lowest average depth of target (10.5) and catch rate (68.0%) of his career last year.

Furthermore, Thielen has never operated as a number one having served the front half of his career playing second fiddle to Stefon Diggs and the back-half performing the same function for Justin Jefferson. He is still a reliable pair of hands (he only dropped one pass all of last year) and can be a solid contributor to a successful receiver room.

WR Laviska Shenault – Photo courtesy of Colorado

Lining up across from Thielen is most likely going to be D.J. Chark. I’m a big fan of Chark. And he is legitimately one of the best deep threats in the NFC South now that he has signed with Carolina. Chark stepped in nicely last year with Detroit, providing a reliable big play threat to match with Amon Ra St. Brown until rookie Jameson Williams got on the field late in the year.

Chark caught 30 passes for 502 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 16.7 yards per catch and an average depth of target of 15.9! Chark is big and fast and can win deep. That is evidenced by catching 15 of 33 passes that were thrown to him beyond 10 yards for 390 yards and two of his three touchdowns.

The Panthers also drafted Jonathan Mingo out of Ole Miss in the second round of the 2023 Draft. Given that draft position it stands to reason Mingo will be one of the team’s top three receivers, if not at the beginning of the season, then by the end of it. I am a big fan of Mingo’s and had him ranked as the fifth best receiver in the draft.

Furthermore, I thought he was the only one of the five who could truly play the difficult “X” role. If Mingo is able to quickly develop into that role it would quickly elevate this receiving core and allow them to challenge for second in the NFC South. From my own notes “Mingo has a large frame (6-2, 220) with a big catch radius. He has good speed for his size and plays through contact well. He has some amazing highlight reel catches, but an underdeveloped route tree with some injury concerns and an overall lack of production.”

Terrace Marshall Jr. is probably the best fourth receiver in the NFC South and is coming off of a much-improved sophomore campaign. He had 28 catches for 490 yards, averaging 17.5 yards per catch with a touchdown. Marshall showed he can win vertically as evidenced by his 96.3 PFF grade and 55.6% catch rate on targets of 20+ yards.

Rounding out Carolina’s top-five is Laviska Shenault Jr. A former Colorado star, Shenault had the best season of his career in 2022, catching 84.4% of his 32 targets and earning an 85.0 grade from PFF. Shenault was used primarily as a screen player, with his average depth of target being almost one yard behind the line of scrimmage and an average of 12.4 yards after catch per reception.

The Panthers have a very tall receiver room, with every one of the aforementioned players standing at least 6-foot-2. And they are legitimately the deepest group of receivers in the division. However, without a true alpha their will continue to be an artificial ceiling that limits the potential of this group within the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

Had we included tight ends in this ranking the Falcons would have vaulted to second or third in these NFC South rankings. However, without Kyle Pitts being considered the Falcons receiving core looks rather pedestrian. Their top option, 2022 first-round pick Drake London, had a phenomenal rookie campaign. He caught 72 passes for 866 yards and four touchdowns while averaging over two yards per route run and an average depth of target of 11.2. London also continued his penchant for making difficult contested catches that he created in college, securing 14 of 26 opportunities.

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Falcons WR Drake London – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

London showed that he could be a legitimate number one on a team that struggled to show any meaningful options behind him last year. And 2023 may be more of the same. The names behind London don’t have a very consistent track record with Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller, Khadarel Hodge and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside all having lackluster resumes.

Hollins currently projects to be the starter opposite London. He has the best statistical season of the bunch logging 57 catches, 690 yards and four touchdowns during his 2022 campaign with the Raiders. However, over his five-year career, Hollins has never earned a PFF grade better than 64.0 or a yards per route run over 1.50. Hollins is a number four or worse on most teams in the NFL.

Miller will always occupy a special spot in the hearts of most Bucs fans thanks to his production early in 2020 when both Evans and Godwin were hurt as well as the big touchdown catch, he had on the last play of the first half of the Bucs playoff game against the Packers that year. But over his first four years in the NFL Miller still hasn’t cracked 1,000 yards receiving…total. He will provide a deep big play element for the Falcons, but he proved time and again in Tampa Bay that his lack of size and catch radius limit his ceiling as a receiver.

Hodge is an interesting player and has performed well in very limited opportunities over the past three years enroute to 37 receptions, 539 yards and a touchdown. But both Cleveland and Detroit decided to move on from Hodge during that time frame and neither team had elite receiver rooms when they did. Whiteside-Arcega did not play at all last year. He may be the most famous receiver in the NFL who is not a rookie that has less than 20 catches due to a three-game run with the Eagles in 2020.

The Falcons may have a top-five receiver in the NFC South in London, but beyond him the options get slim quickly. That won’t stop them from having a talented offense as they are leaning into their division-leading run game this year.

While there are some talented receiving groups in the NFC South, none of them can touch the Bucs group. That room is seen as not only the best in the division, but one of the best in the league.

The Top WR duos on @PFF_Sam‘s wide receiver rankings pic.twitter.com/jXsrnbZpuu

— PFF (@PFF) May 28, 2023