The finish line is here. We have analyzed the NFC South position group by position group from top to bottom, plus the coaching staffs. But when you put it all together what does it all add up to?

As I have been chronicling this series, I have been assigning numerical weights to each position group ranking. And now as everything has finally been presented, I have a final grade for each team that can serve as a barometer for where the NFC South currently stands heading into training camp later this summer.

Before I get to the final rankings here are some quick links to the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, offensive lines, defensive lines, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties, specialists and NFC South coaching staffs.

It is important to note that all four teams graded out very similarly. The difference between the first-place team and the last place team was 2.7 points on a scale of 1-100. And that matches up with conventional wisdom regarding the NFC South. Remember, the Bucs won the division last year with an 8-9 record, while the other three teams were tied at 7-10.

Every team has a reasonable chance at finishing in any of the four spots in the division. As a fan of football this should be fun and intriguing. As a fan of the Bucs this may cause you ulcers. Now, without further ado here are my NFC South full team rankings.

New Orleans Saints

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Saints WR Michael Thomas – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Saints take the top spot by virtue of having the best quarterback in the division in Derek Carr along with strong units at running back, wide receiver, tight end, linebacker, safety and special teams. The Saints get to the No. 1 spot by virtue of building an all-around solid roster. They rank last in the NFC South in only one position group, which is the offensive line.

If you were to bet against New Orleans it would be that offensive line that drives your bet. Either that or a lack of faith in the coaching staff. Carr may be the most accomplished starting quarterback in the division, but he can struggle under pressure and the interior of the Saints line is a slew of question marks.

But the pros for this team are easy to find. The offense should score enough points with a strong cast of playmakers surrounding Carr and a good tackle duo. And the defense under head coach Dennis Allen will be competitive as a most-likely Top 10 unit. In this division that can be good enough for a division title and a trip to the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs DT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs finish 1.5 points behind the Saints in my grading and just 0.6 points ahead of the next team. Tampa Bay ties Atlanta for the most top position groups with four. Three of those position groups are on the defensive side of the ball where the Bucs have amassed a gluttony of talent.

With established stalwarts Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David, Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis III and Antoine Winfield Jr. flanked by young talented players like Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Calijah Kancey, Yaya Diaby, Devin White and Zyon McCollum the Bucs could feature the best defense in football, let alone the NFC South. Elevating that defense is a head coach who is known throughout the NFL as one of the most innovative minds on that side of the ball. It gives the Bucs a high floor to work from as they jockey for position in the NFC South.

The questions for Tampa Bay really arise on the offensive side of the ball where they ranked third at quarterback, tight end and offensive line and last at running back. Top that off with a rookie play-caller and an argument can be made (and has been by many a national analyst) that the Bucs may have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. And while all of that is true, I think one thing that isn’t being talked about enough is the variance the team seems to be leaning into.

Baker Mayfield is consistently ranked as one of the worst starters in the league right now, but he is also one of only 14 projected starters with two or more seasons with a Pro Football Focus grade of 80.0 or better. Mayfield represents a gambit by the Bucs that, if healthy and returned to a Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay-style wide zone offense, he can return to a Top 10-15 quarterback. If that happens the Bucs can make some noise and leapfrog into the top spot in the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

Texas RB Bijan Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

This is the one ranking that feels most off. And I think that may be because my calculations don’t account for synergy. And synergy in football is very real. Case in point, the Miami Dolphins last year. By developing an offense that was on the extreme end of the speed spectrum, every part of that offense elevated, and the Dolphins were one of the best scoring units in the NFL until Tua Tagovailoa’s injury issues.

Head coach Arthur Smith is building an offense that will be difficult to stop. They were Top 5 in EPA/rush last year and have since added a potentially generational running back in Bijan Robinson and bolstered their offensive line with an athletic player in Matthew Bergeron. The synergy of that run game matched up against defenses that are designed to stop the pass first could lead the Falcons to being the top offense in the NFC South despite having the worst quarterback situation and one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the division.

On the defensive side of the ball Atlanta has invested heavily with the signings of Jessie Bates III, Calais Campbell, David Onyematta and Bud Dupree plus the trade for Jeff Okudah. These additions certainly raise the talent level on this side of the ball, but it remains to be seen if all of these additions will coalesce into an above average unit. If they do you can make a case for the Falcons being a surprise dark horse playoff team.

Carolina Panthers

Panthers QB Bryce Young and head coach Frank Reich – Photo by: USA Today

If you were looking at a three-to-five-year outlook of each of these NFC South teams there is a good bet the Panthers may be ranked higher on this list. But by any reasonable measure this is a team that is rebuilding. They have all the traditional markers of one. New coaching staff. Check. Rookie first round quarterback. Check.

The Panthers have some talent on their roster. But there was not a single position group where they ranked first in the NFC South in. As a matter of fact, they ranked last in five different areas (wide receivers, tight ends, defensive line, safeties and specialists).

But if there was a case to be made for this team surprising and finishing towards the top it is due to their top-ranked coaching staff. A great coaching staff can get the most out of even a marginal roster (see: Giants, New York circa 2022). The Panthers’ coaching staff is heads and tails above the rest of the division and could have this squad competing sooner rather than later.

Final NFC South Analysis

As I have shown, you can make a case for just about every one of the teams in the NFC South and show a path to the top spot in the division. But with a good defense and the best quarterback the Saints have my vote for the slight edge in the super-competitive NFC South.