Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Bucs Will Have A Winning Record In 2023

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to do the unthinkable in 2023.

They’re actually going to win more games without Tom Brady.

That’s right. The 2023 Bucs are going to win one more game than they did a year ago when an 8-9 record still meant capturing a second-straight NFC South title.

Despite having one of the youngest rosters in the league, Tampa Bay will finish with a 9-8 record.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Whether or not going 9-8 will be good enough to win the division this year, or if a 9-8 record is good enough for the Bucs to make the playoffs for a fourth straight season – even as a potential wild card team – is unknown.

What I do know is that each team in the NFC South except for Carolina should be incrementally better than a year ago. The Falcons, Saints and Panthers all finished 7-10 last year – one game behind the Bucs, who won the division with a 4-2 record.

Atlanta spent a bunch of money in free agency, but that doesn’t always work out unless all the new talent gels together and forms a cohesive team.

New Orleans’ defense got decimated in free agency, but upgraded at quarterback with the addition of Derek Carr. Carolina scored a big win in hiring head coach Frank Reich, but saddled with a very young roster and a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, it may be a few years before the Panthers contend for the division title as they’re in rebuilding mode.

As for Tampa Bay, the team has eight players on the current roster who have at least one Pro Bowl berth. And the Bucs still have 14 players who were on the Super Bowl LV championship team. They aren’t the trendy pick to three-peat as NFC South champions, but don’t count out the Buccaneers due to their experience and talent.

Usually the team with the combination of the best quarterback and defense wins the division. That was the case last year with Todd Bowles’ defense and Brady – even if it was a down year for the G.O.A.T., who was distracted with an in-season divorce and bogged down with a predictable play-caller who struggled with in-game adjustments.

Believe it or not, Baker Mayfield may be the best quarterback in the NFC South, and Bowles’ defense may be the best in the division if the Saints slip on that side of the ball as expected. In fact, Mayfield is the only quarterback in the NFC South with a playoff win under his belt. So if Tampa Bay somehow gets to the postseason with a 9-8 record, it won’t be foreign territory to Mayfield.

The Buccaneers will also be breaking in a rookie play-caller. I’m bullish on new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. I think there will be some Sundays when he loses the chess match to opposing defensive coordinators and the offense gets stymied and bogs down. But I also believe he’s a quick study, and won’t make the same mistake twice. Canales is a bright guy and will find ways to adapt and make the necessary adjustments. He’ll improve as a play-caller as the season goes on, as experience is the greatest teacher.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Todd Bowles’ defense will have to be stout this year, and there are some question marks up front with a pair of young starting defensive tackles in Logan Hall and Calijah Kancey, the team’s first-round pick who missed the entire preseason with a calf injury. The defense might have to wear the superhero cape early in the season while a revamped offensive line, a new starting quarterback, a new starting running back and a new play-caller all come together and gel.

What will hold this Buccaneers team back from being one of the better teams in the NFC in 2023 is the lack of experience at certain positions and proven depth. Youth and inexperience will certainly cost this team a few wins. I’m expecting the experience and talent of the team’s seasoned starters, along with the veteran teachers on this coaching staff, to come through for Tampa Bay, and banking on injuries not hitting too hard this year.

This year’s Bucs team is not a Super Bowl squad, but it is no coincidence that the two times Tampa Bay has won a Super Bowl, it’s been incredibly healthy. The team had just one starter on injured reserve in both of those Super Bowl championship teams – nose tackle Booger McFarland in 2002 and right guard Alex Cappa in 2020.

Without much proven depth along the offensive line and in the secondary, the Buccaneers can’t withstand too many key injuries this year. So if the injury bug bites hard, Tampa Bay likely won’t be able to overcome it, and a losing record could very much be in the cards. The Bucs have already seen two season-ending injuries to starters Ryan Jensen and Russell Gage before the regular season starts and can’t take too many more.

The Bucs’ floor is probably six wins in 2023, while the ceiling appears to be 10 wins. My nine-win prediction is admittedly rather optimistic and closer to the ceiling, so let’s hope for the best and check out how the Bucs reach nine wins in Fab 2.

FAB 2. Picking Tampa Bay’s Wins And Losses Week-By-Week

Week 1 – Tampa Bay at Minnesota – WIN

Tampa Bay is a Week 1 road underdog, and has actually fared well in that role before, scoring upsets at Atlanta in 2016, New Orleans in 2018 and Dallas in 2022. The debut of Dave Canales’ new offense keeps Brian Flores’ defense guessing, while Todd Bowles defense takes advantage of a Vikings offense that can’t run the ball without Dalvin Cook. BUCS RECORD: 1-0

Week 2 – Tampa Bay vs. Chicago – WIN

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs return home to face a better Bears team than the one Tampa Bay beat 38-3 in Raymond James Stadium in Justin Fields’ rookie season. This game will be much closer, but the home crowd helps the defense rise up and stop Fields in the fourth quarter as the Bucs start the season off hot. BUCS RECORD: 2-0

Week 3 – Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia – LOSS

The Eagles are still the class of the NFC and loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Whether this one ends up close or winds up being a blowout, Tampa Bay’s first loss of the season seems inevitable on Monday Night Football to a superior and deeper Philadelphia team. BUCS RECORD: 2-1

Week 4 – Tampa Bay at New Orleans – LOSS

The Bucs were able to sweep the Saints last year, but that was mostly due to inferior quarterback play in New Orleans. Derek Carr is an upgrade over Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill. This one is close, but the Saints pull it out at the end. The team won’t be happy with two straight losses, but some Bucs fans will be relieved the team is 2-2 heading into the bye week. BUCS RECORD: 2-2

Week 5 – BYE

Week 6 – Tampa Bay vs. Detroit – WIN

Tampa Bay comes out of the bye week decked out in Bucco Bruce throwback uniforms to host an improved Lions team. This game comes down to the wire, but the power of the creamsicles prevails – along with a Chase McLaughlin field goal, as the Bucs get back above .500. BUCS RECORD: 3-2

Week 7 – Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta – WIN

Bucs CB Jamel Dean and WR Olamide Zaccheaus – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs win back-to-back games for the second time this season, and get their most important victory to date – against a division foe. The Falcons beat the Bucs in Week 18 last year after Tampa Bay pulled its starters at halftime with a playoff berth already secured. The Bucs will have revenge on their mind and beat the Falcons for a fourth straight year at Ray-Jay. BUCS RECORD: 4-2

Week 8 – Tampa Bay at Buffalo – LOSS

Thursday night games are always a challenge. Thursday night road games are hard. But Thursday night road games against Super Bowl contenders can be brutal. And the Bills hand the Bucs a brutal loss in prime time. BUCS RECORD: 4-3

Week 9 – Tampa Bay at Houston – WIN

Todd Bowles gets the benefit of a mini-bye week to get his team regroup. This is the toughest stretch of the season, with Tampa Bay having four of five games on the road during the middle of the schedule. The Bucs gut out a close win against an improved Texans team to stay above .500. BUCS RECORD: 5-3

Week 10 – Tampa Bay vs. Tennessee – LOSS

The Titans are committed to the run like few teams are. That figures to give the Bucs’ undersized front some real problems. Tampa Bay suffers its second loss at home if veteran Ryan Tannehill is the quarterback. But if it’s rookie Will Levis or Malik Willis under center, it could be a different story. BUCS RECORD: 5-4

Week 11 – Tampa Bay at San Francisco – LOSS

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs just aren’t an elite-caliber team, and that’s why they lost to the likes of the Eagles and Bills earlier in the season. Last year’s trip to San Francisco was rough for Tampa Bay, and the rematch won’t go the Bucs way, either. The 49ers outclass the Bucs once again in a rout. BUCS RECORD: 5-5

Week 12 – Tampa Bay at Indianapolis – WIN

Tampa Bay stays above .500 with a bounce-back road win that is very much needed and timely. Anthony Richardson is quite the athlete, but Todd Bowles dials up some exotic pressures that forces the rookie quarterback into several mistakes. Dave Canales’ offense takes full advantage in a lopsided victory for the Bucs. BUCS RECORD: 6-5

Week 13 – Tampa Bay vs. Carolina – WIN

The Bucs take a big step towards another division title with a home win against the Panthers, who figure to be the doormat of the NFC South this year. Todd Bowles’ defense is in hunt mode against rookie Bryce Young, and the Bucs simply out-talent the Panthers at Ray-Jay to improve to two games over .500 entering December. BUCS RECORD: 7-5

Week 14 – Tampa Bay at Atlanta – LOSS

The Bucs beat the Falcons in Tampa Bay, but the tables are turned in Atlanta. A lot of the Falcons’ new pieces have come together later in the season and Atlanta is in the mix for the division title in December. The Bucs have their chances, but let them slip away in a disappointing loss that may cost them the NFC South crown. BUCS RECORD: 7-6

Week 15 – Tampa Bay at Green Bay – LOSS

Bucs NT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Packers are a beatable team without Aaron Rodgers, and the last time Tampa Bay played at Lambeau Field was one of the biggest victories in franchise history – the 2020 NFC Championship Game. But the Bucs are a young, warm weather team and don’t handle the elements of a December 17 game in Green Bay very well as they slide back to .500 late in the season. BUCS RECORD: 7-7

Week 16 – Tampa Bay vs. Jacksonville – LOSS

The Bucs return home hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Jaguars are an AFC team on the rise and have designs about repeating as division champs of the AFC South again. Both teams need this win, but the Jaguars prevail at the end thanks to some Trevor Lawrence heroics as Tampa Bay falls below .500 for the first time this season – at the worst time of the season. BUCS RECORD: 7-8

Week 17 – Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans – WIN

The Bucs face an absolutely must-win game in their home finale against a division rival. A loss assures Tampa Bay of another losing season and will keep the team out of the playoffs. But the Bucs prevail and avoid getting swept by the Saints, as was the custom for many seasons prior to last year. BUCS RECORD: 8-8

Week 18 – Tampa Bay at Carolina – WIN

It’s simple. Sweep the Panthers and finish with one more win than a year ago, or lose and miss out on the playoffs and Todd Bowles is on the hot seat in 2024. Thankfully the Bucs have a winnable game to end the season against a Panthers team who was out of playoff contention by midseason. The Bucs get the victory and finish with a winning record. But is it enough to make the postseason? That depends on how the Falcons and Saints finish down the stretch. BUCS RECORD: 9-8

FAB 3. Bucs 2023 Season MVPs

These players will be the best of the Bucs this year. Picking a defensive MVP was much harder given the amount of talent on that side of the ball.

Offensive MVP – WR Mike Evans

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Picking quarterback Baker Mayfield seems a little risky, so we’ll go with the safest, surest bet in Tampa Bay. That’s Evans of course, who is on his way to getting his NFL-record 10th 1,000-yard season. More importantly, Evans gets back to scoring double-digit touchdowns after posting just six TDs last year. He’ll either be highly motivated to have a huge year because he’s in a contract year, or he’ll be a very happy and motivated receiver with a new contract if both he and the team can reach an agreement on an extension before the start of the 2023 season.

Defensive MVP – OLB Shaq Barrett

The 2023 season will be the “return of the Shaq.” After a tragic offseason, Barrett is back and ready to make up for lost time after missing half of last season with a torn Achilles tendon. When healthy, Barrett is the best and most experienced Bucs pass rusher. He comes back with a vengeance and has double-digit sacks again – thanks in part to more athletic Bucs defensive line flushing the QB his way.

Special Teams MVP – K Chase McLaughlin

McLaughlin won’t be perfect in the regular season like he was in the preseason. But he’ll make far more than he misses and come up clutch in several games this year. McLaughlin will wind up being a more than adequate replacement for Ryan Succop.

FAB 4. Bucs Pewter Predictions – Season Awards

Now that the MVPs have been selected, let’s predict some other awards for the Bucs 2023 season.

Best Rookie – WR Trey Palmer

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With Russell Gage’s season-ending injury, Palmer figures to get plenty of playing time on offense this year during his rookie season. With a team-high two touchdowns in the preseason among his three highlight-reel catches, Palmer figures to get a half dozen scores as defenses focus on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Best Free Agent Acquisition – QB Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay struck gold with Tom Brady, the team’s previous free agent quarterback signee. General manager Jason Licht hopes to do it again – albeit with a far less accomplished QB in Mayfield. Entering his sixth season, Mayfield was signed to a one-year, prove-it deal worth $4 million. The team hopes he can be this year’s Geno Smith and go from journeyman to Pro Bowler in the Bucs’ version of the Seahawks offense.

Most Improved Offensive Player – TE Cade Otton

Otton has the chance to improve on last year’s numbers when he led all rookie tight ends with 42 catches for 391 yards and two touchdowns. Now the Bucs’ starter, Otton will benefit from all of the rollouts and waggles that Dave Canales’ offense calls for. As a rookie, Otton proved to be clutch, with both of his touchdowns coming in crunch time, including the game-winner against the Rams.

Most Improved Defensive Player – S Antoine Winfield Jr.

A year after winning the Super Bowl as a rookie, Winfield made the Pro Bowl as a safety in 2021. But head coach Todd Bowles wanted to put Winfield in the slot last year where he didn’t flourish. Winfield had just one interception, although he did have a career-high four sacks. Now focusing on just safety – primarily free safety – Winfield should be in position to create more INTs and get back to the Pro Bowl in his contract year.

FAB 5. Pewter Predictions – Tampa Bay’s Stats Leaders

Now that we’ve dished out some awards, let’s make one final round of pewter predictions for Tampa Bay’s 2023 season.

Leading Sacker – OLB Shaq Barrett

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and DT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Barrett will wind up leading the team in sacks with 10 as he makes his return to the Pro Bowl. Will the Bucs top 50 sacks as a team? It’s only happened once in franchise history with 55 in 2000. Tampa Bay has come close a few times under Todd Bowles, including 48 sacks last year,

Leading Receiver – WR Chris Godwin

While Mike Evans will get over 1,000 yards again and lead the team in touchdowns, Godwin figures to lead the Bucs in receptions. With his role in the slot as well as outside at flanker, Godwin might get more targets than Evans, especially since the big 6-foot-5, receiver draws more double coverage. In three out of the last four seasons, that’s been the case in Tampa Bay.

Leading Interceptor – S Antoine Winfield Jr.

Both cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III drop more interceptions than they pick off. Winfield has the surest hands in the secondary, so it only makes sense that he would be the pick to be Tampa Bay’s top interceptor. Playing more single-high safety in Cover 3, Winfield will have more opportunities to pick off passes as a centerfielder.

Pro Bowlers – LT Tristan Wirfs, WR Mike Evans, OLB Shaq Barrett, DT Vita Vea

Tampa Bay has a talented roster. As previously mentioned, the team has eight players on their 53-man roster who have been named to at least one Pro Bowl team. But with the Bucs likely finishing just one game above .500 and only having a few prime time games, only established stars like Wirfs, Evans, Barrett and Vea figure to be Pro Bowlers in 2023.