Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs started the season with a 20-17 road upset at Minnesota against a Vikings team that won the NFC North a year ago with a 13-4 record. The Bears disappointed at home in a crushing loss to the Packers, 38-20.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: USA Today

A big road win last week allows the Bucs the opportunity to start the season 2-0 for the third year in a row with a victory over the Bears on Sunday. The two previous seasons have resulted in winning the NFC South division, so a 2-0 start could be a good omen. This is also the Bucs’ home opener and a fan base that has been less enthusiastic following Tom Brady’s retirement could roar back into action at Raymond James Stadium following last week’s upset victory at Minnesota.

Head coach Todd Bowles wants to continue to play complementary football. The Bucs beat the Vikings by having all three phases of the team – offense, defense and special teams – show up and play well in the second half after a 10-10 tie at halftime. Tampa Bay notched a critical NFC win over a Minnesota team that could be competing for a Wild Card playoff spot or perhaps the division title again, and last week’s victory could help the Bucs in a head-to-head tiebreaker scenario.

It’s hard to imagine the Bears making a playoff run this year with their lack of talent and questionable quarterback play, but stacking NFC wins is important to a team like the Bucs that will be competing for the postseason. Tampa Bay was just 3-4 at Raymond James Stadium last year, as the “home” win versus Seattle was in Germany. The Bucs also lost their playoff game to the Cowboys at home. So Bowles wants his team to rebuild a homefield advantage at Ray-Jay and that starts on Sunday with a win over the Bears.

What’s At Stake For The Bears

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

No team wants to start the season 0-2. The chances of NFL teams making the playoffs following a 0-2 start plummets, so if Chicago wants to have any hope of having a winning season or making the playoffs this year, the Bears need to beat the Bucs on Sunday. They’ll have to lick their wounds from a bad start to the season after a demoralizing home loss to the division rival Packers last Sunday.

Whether it’s Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers or now Jordan Love, the Packers’ mastery over the Bears continues. Chicago will have to shake off that loss, hit the road and fight the heat in Tampa Bay against a Bucs team that trounced them, 38-3, in 2021. There has been some roster turnover with last year’s coaching change, but several Bears players remain from that team and will be looking to make amends for that brutal loss.

Matt Eberflus replaced Matt Nagy following a 6-11 season in 2021 and finished 3-14 in his Chicago debut last year. Another double-digit losing season could put his job in jeopardy. Simply put, a 0-2 start for the Bears would be disastrous for Eberflus, quarterback Justin Fields, a former first-round pick, and Chicago as a whole.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay followed the formula last week and found success with an upset win on the road at Minnesota. What’s the formula? Win the turnover battle. The Bucs defense had three takeaways and the offense didn’t turn the ball over at all. Yet it took that lopsided turnover advantage to win a close game against the Vikings, 20-17. That proves that the Bucs’ margin of error is small this season.

Offensive coordinator Dave Canales and quarterback Baker Mayfield need to get off to a much faster start. The Bucs started off 0-of-5 on third down conversions last week and didn’t get their initial first down until almost halftime. That can’t happen again. Tampa Bay’s ground game needs better efficiency in terms of yards per carry. Rachaad White needs to run with more urgency and Mayfield needs to continue to be opportunistic in the passing game without turning the ball over.

Defensively, stopping the Bears’ three-headed rushing attack is paramount, especially on early downs. Running the ball effectively puts less pressure on Justin Fields to have to do too much in the passing game to win. Chicago will use the mobile Fields in the QB run game too, evidenced by his team-high 59 yards last week.  The Bucs want to get Fields into third-and-long situations where they can pressure him into interceptions and sack him.

The Bears Win If…

Bears WR D.J. Moore and DB Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Chicago’s strength on offense is its ground game. The trio of Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson combined to run for 63 yards and a touchdown in the opening-day loss to the Packers. Yet it was Justin Fields who led the Bears with 59 yards on the ground. Chicago would love to ground and pound a young Bucs defensive front with 150 yards rushing or more on Sunday. That would allow head coach and play-caller Matt Eberflus to throw the ball when he wants to – not has to.

The Bears will need to get more out of wide receiver D.J. Moore, who was acquired in a trade with Carolina that gave the Panthers the No. 1 overall pick this year. Moore, who makes over $20 million per year, was limited to just two catches for 25 yards in his Bears debut and needs to receive more than the two targets he had in Week 1. Darnell Mooney led Chicago’s passing attack with four catches for 53 yards and a touchdown. The Bears need Moore, who’s had some big days against the Bucs when he was with the Panthers, to star if they are going to get their first win of the year.

Defensively, Chicago’s pass rush needs to come alive. The Bears got just one sack on Jordan Love, who threw three touchdowns last week, and that came from Yannick Ngakoue, who might be Chicago’s only legit pass rusher. It looks like passing on pass-rushing defensive tackle Jalen Carter was a big mistake – although rookie offensive tackle Darnell Wright, the team’s first-round pick, had a very good rookie debut in Chicago. The Bears didn’t force any takeaways on defense and that needs to change in Week 2 if they are going to avoid a 0-2 start.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

RB Rachaad White vs. Bears Linebackers

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It was a disappointing start to the season for Bucs running back Rachaad White, who was held in check in Minnesota by a stingy Vikings defense on Sunday. White ran the ball 17 times for 39 yards – a paltry 2.3 yards per carry. He had the Bucs’ longest carry of the game, which was just six yards. White needs to run with more authority and a greater sense of urgency this week against a big Bears defense that has the size to make it difficult to run the ball. Tampa Bay ran the ball for just 73 yards in the season opener after averaging just 75 yards per game in 2022.

The Bears overhauled their linebacker corps in free agency, signing T.J. Edwards from Philadelphia and Tremaine Edmunds from Buffalo. That duo had a productive debut for Chicago, with Edwards registering 14 tackles and Edmunds notching eight, including seven solo stops. But both linebackers struggled in coverage, evidenced by Aaron Jones having two big catches – one for a 51-yard gain and another for a 35-yard touchdown.

Edwards and Edmunds are both big, downhill bangers. Edwards is 6-foot-1, 242 pounds, while Edmunds is 6-foot-5, 250 pounds. The Bucs need to get their mid-zone and wide zone run game going to get Edwards and Edmunds on the move laterally and then have White and backup runners Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds look for cutback lanes for big gains. White also needs to take advantage of Edwards and Edmunds in the passing game on screens and on routes out of the backfield.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

QB Justin Fields vs. Bucs Defensive Front

Bucs S Antoine Winfield, Jr. and OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs picked off quarterback Justin Fields three times and sacked him four times in a 38-3 win during his rookie season in 2021. Fields has improved a bit as a passer, but still had two turnovers in last week’s 38-20 loss to Green Bay. Fields completed 24-of-37 passes for 216 yards with one touchdown and one interception, which was a bad pick-six. The third-year quarterback also fumbled and was sacked four times.

Expect head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles to mix up coverages to confuse Fields, who still struggles with read progressions. That could lead to Fields holding the ball and some strip-sack opportunities in the pocket. Bowles will also be sending a myriad of blitzes against Fields to try to get to him before he can leave the pocket and scramble. That’s when Fields is the most dangerous.

The good news for the Bucs is that Tampa Bay’s defensive front seven is as fast and athletic as it’s ever been since Bowles arrived as the defensive coordinator in 2019. The Bucs have the athletes that can contain, corral and pursue Fields. Sunday’s game may not be the 38-3 blowout it was in 2021, but Tampa Bay’s defense could have a similar type of performance against Fields as it did a few years with multiple sacks and multiple interceptions.