It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs improved to 3-1 on the season and stand alone atop the NFC South division after beating the Saints in New Orleans, 26-9. Tampa Bay’s offense out-gained New Orleans, 353-197, in total yardage. The Bucs defense smothered wide receiver Chris Olave, caused three takeaways and forced Derek Carr to check the ball down all day.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Todd Bowles’ Mastery Of The Saints Continues

With a 26-9 win over their NFC South division rivals, Todd Bowles is now 3-0 versus New Orleans since taking over as head coach last year.

The Saints used to be the bully on the block, winning the NFC South four straight years between 2017-2020 and winning seven straight regular season games over the Bucs during that span. Now Bowles is the bully.

Here are the scores of Tampa Bay’s last three games against New Orleans:

Bucs 26, Saints 9 – 2023
Bucs 17, Saints 16 – 2022
Bucs 20, Saints 10 – 2022

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Throw in a 9-0 loss to the Saints in 2021 in which the Bucs lost Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette to injury in that wacky game, and that makes four straight games in which Bowles’ defense has held the once-dangerous New Orleans offense to under 17 points.

Fresh off a tough 18-17 loss at Green Bay in which New Orleans blew a 17-0 lead, the Saints trotted out a wounded Derek Carr instead of a healthy Jameis Winston. That’s exactly what the Bucs wanted.

The Bucs wanted to face Carr, whose injured throwing shoulder would have him be a check-down machine on Sunday. All Bowles’ boys needed to do was apply pressure, force the check-down and then rally and tackle. That’s exactly what happened.

The result was holding the Saints to just 197 yards of total offense. Carr completed 23-of-37 passes, but for just 127 yards. He was sacked twice and fumbled.

Saints running back Alvin Kamara returned to the lineup from his NFL suspension and ran for 51 yards on 11 carries, but caught 13 passes for just a measly 33 yards. Twenty-four touches and a pedestrian 84 yards for Kamara. Mission accomplished.

The Saints’ longest play against Bowles’ defense was a 20-yard catch by Michael Thomas, who led the way with a harmless 53 yards on four catches. Chris Olave was blanketed all game and finished with only one catch for four yards. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. made a daring pass breakup in the end zone to prevent an Olave score in the second half.

Between Carlton Davis III, Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien, the Bucs smothered Thomas, Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who had three catches for 33 yards. The Bucs didn’t miss Jamel Dean, who was out with a shoulder injury, or safety Ryan Neal, who left with a concussion after the first play.

Dee Delaney took over at safety for Neal, and the secondary didn’t miss a beat. In fact, Delaney helped me make good on one of my 2 Bold Predictions from last week’s 2-Point Conversion where I accurately predicted he would pick off Winston.

Yes, Winston, the former Tampa Bay QB, entered the game late for Carr and threw just one pass – which was picked off by Delaney, of course. Winston’s penchant for throwing interceptions continues.

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

As for Winfield, he was a one-man-gang in New Orleans. He led the team with nine tackles, had a sack, and forced and recovered a key fumble deep in Saints territory right before halftime – and right after Baker Mayfield threw an interception. Mayfield found Trey Palmer with a touchdown toss a few plays later to help Tampa Bay take a 14-3 lead into halftime.

“[The defense] played great and did a heck of a job punching the ball out right there,” Bowles said. “We didn’t play well Monday night, and we wanted to come back and regain ourselves. A lot of guys stepped up for injured guys. A lot of injured guys played and they played well as a group and as a team. I thought it was a great team win for us.”

Bowles’ Bucs are now 3-1 entering the bye week. A dangerous 3-1 Lions team awaits in two weeks, but let’s stop and relish in this win over the Saints and appreciate how Bowles not only snapped a seven-game losing streak to New Orleans, but started a winning streak over the NFC South rivals.

STATEMENT 2: Baker Mayfield Is The Best QB In The NFC South

It’s no coincidence that the best team in the NFC South has the best quarterback. The modern day NFL is still a passing league and usually the team with the best QB wins. Through four games, it’s obvious that Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield is the best QB in the division. Not only does the Bucs’ 3-1 record indicate that, but Mayfield’s personal stats also bear that out.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield: 882 passing yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 101.5 QB Rating

Saints QB Derek Carr: 763 passing yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 80.1 QB Rating

Falcons QB Desmond Ridder: 744 passing yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 77.9 QB Rating

Panthers QB Bryce Young: 503 passing yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 75 QB Rating

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield threw a season-high three touchdown passes and had just one interception against the Saints, completing 25-of-32 passes (78.1%) for 246 yards. The Bucs barely got two quarters out of star receiver Mike Evans before he left with a hamstring injury. But Mayfield hit tight end Cade Otton and receivers Trey Palmer and Deven Thompkins with touchdowns on Sunday.

Just as important, Mayfield scrambled for 28 yards on five carries and was only sacked once as he continued to be elusive in and out of the pocket. He shook off a personal foul shot on the Otton touchdown pass and continued to play through some knee pain.

“We had hands on a collapsing pocket on the quarterback,” Saints DE Cameron Jordan said. “The collapsing pocket wasn’t getting him down. He was able to get the ball out however it may be. He made some great plays worthy of him being a former number one overall pick. Kudos to him.”

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles marveled at Mayfield’s performance.

“Tough,” Bowles said. “He made some throws – long ones and short ones. He made some throws. He stayed away from sacks for the most part, almost gave away a pick, but it came incomplete. We did not count that one. He played a heck of a ballgame. Baker is tough. He fits in here. He understands the offense very well. The guys love to play for him. He works for us.”

Mayfield makes significantly less – just $4 million this season – than Carr does. New Orleans signed Carr to a four-year, $150 million deal with $60 million fully guaranteed. So far it looks like a bad investment as the cap-strapped Saints clearly overspent.

Meanwhile in Tampa Bay, Mayfield is giving these Bucs plenty of bang for their bucks.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. What Was The Best Thing About The Bucs Offense On Sunday?

Tampa Bay’s offense scored a season-high 26 points against a stingy Saints defense that hadn’t allowed 20 points or more for a franchise-record 11 games.

The Bucs’ ground game bounced back after a dismal effort against the Eagles with 114 rushing yards.

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Saints CB Marshon Lattimore – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay won the turnover battle once again with three takeaways and only one turnover – an ill-advised interception by Baker Mayfield right before halftime.

Right tackle Luke Goedeke went toe-to-toe with Cameron Jordan and held the Pro Bowl defensive end to just four tackles and zero sacks.

But the best thing about the Bucs offense in the win against the Saints was the fact that Tampa Bay can win without Mike Evans. The 10-year veteran has been the Bucs offense for the first three weeks of the season, racking up 297 receiving yards and catching three of the team’s four touchdowns.

Evans was on his way to schooling Marshon Lattimore on Sunday, catching all three of his targets for 40 yards in the first half before injuring his hamstring.

How would the Bucs react without Evans? Just fine, apparently.

Chris Godwin stepped up as the primary receiver, catching eight passes for a season-high 114 yards, including a 42-yard catch-and-run in the fourth quarter.

Bucs RB Rachaad White and WR Deven Thompkins – Photo by: USA Today

Rookie receiver Trey Palmer only caught two passes for six yards. But his leaping, 1-yard score on a perfectly thrown fade pass right before halftime gave the Bucs a key 14-3 lead.

But it was Deven Thompkins, the Bucs’ diminutive speedster, who also starred for Tampa Bay. The second-year receiver had four catches on four targets for a career-high 45 yards and his first NFL touchdown to increase the Bucs’ lead to 23-9 late in the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay doesn’t want to win without Evans too much this year. The Bucs would love to have him back for their next game against the Lions in two weeks.

But it’s nice to know that Evans is no longer the Bucs offense.

QUESTION 2. Can Vita Vea Reach Double-Digit Sacks?

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Saints QB-TE Taysom Hill – Photo by: USA Today

Yes, he can. With 3.5 sacks in four games Vita Vea is on pace to record 14 sacks this season. It’s doubtful he records that many when it’s all said and done. But Vea has the chance to do something that former six-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy never did – reach double digits in sacks.

Ten sacks seems reasonable. That’s just 6.5 more sacks over the final 13 games.

Warren Sapp was the last defensive tackle in Tampa Bay to notch 10 sacks or more, recording 16.5 sacks in 2000. Yes, it’s been that long since an interior pass rusher hit double digits. McCoy came close with 9.5 in 2013.

With 3.5 sacks, Vea leads the Bucs with Antoine Winfield Jr. and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka tied for second with a pair of sacks. Last year, Vea’s 6.5 sacks led Tampa Bay, so it’s familiar territory for the big 350-pounder.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. The Bucs Can – And Will – Beat The Lions

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have proven they can beat bad football teams with a pair of wins over the Vikings and Bears, who have a collective 1-7 record between them. On Sunday, Tampa Bay proved it is still the class of the NFC South and won a hard-fought game against the Saints, a similar 2-1 opponent.

Yet last Monday, the Bucs proved they weren’t ready to topple an elite football team like the Eagles.

The 3-1 Lions will play the winless Panthers next week in Detroit and will likely come to Raymond James Stadium on October 15 with a 4-1 record. The Lions are better than the Saints, but not as great as the Eagles. At least not yet.

So can the Bucs beat a team that is somewhere between the Eagles and the Saints? I think so. I like Tampa Bay having a week off to rest and have some extra time to prepare to face Detroit, a probable playoff team.

PREDICTION 2. Antoine Winfield Jr. Goes Back To The Pro Bowl

No one on the Bucs defense is playing as well as safety Antoine Winfield Jr. With nine tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery on Sunday, there is a chance Winfield could be this week’s NFC Defensive Player of the Week, especially since he also made a diving pass breakup that prevented a Chris Olave touchdown.

But as long as he snares three picks this season, Winfield should return to the Pro Bowl this year. He already has a pair of sacks, a pair of forced fumbles and a pair of fumble recoveries in the first month of football. Not only will Winfield get the league-wide recognition he deserves, but he’ll also cash in on a rich contract extension before free agency next March.