BUCS vs. FALCONS

WHEN: Sunday, October 22, 2023 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Chris Myers | ANALYST: Mark Schlereth | SIDELINE: Kristina Pink

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Bucs Move To 4-2 With Big Win Over Falcons

I’ve heard from multiple sources within all ranks of the organization that the Bucs are locked in this week with a laser-like focus on beating the Falcons – and to atone for their performance in last week’s loss to the Lions. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has taken charge of the offense and has been very demanding from an execution standpoint in practice – both with his own play and the play of his teammates.

I expect Mayfield to get back to avoiding turnovers, taking what the defense gives him and lighting up Atlanta’s suspect defense. As long as he stays away from safety Jessie Bates III, who leads the NFL with three picks, Mayfield could have a big day with Mike Evans or Chris Godwin – or both – going over 100 yards.

After not recording a takeaway for the first time last Sunday I expect Tampa Bay’s defense to get back to winning the turnover battle. Desmond Ridder is not good under pressure and has six interceptions on the season to go along with six touchdowns. He’s also been sacked 19 times this year, so there is the potential for a huge sack day for a Bucs defense that sacked Marcus Mariota five times in a 21-15 win over the Falcons last year in Tampa Bay.

As long as the Bucs shut down the Falcons’ ground game and hold the dynamic duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to a combined 80 yards or less they should be able to make life miserable for Ridder. But Tampa Bay must be mindful about the Falcons’ terrific tandem at tight end with Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts. The Bucs allowed too much free real estate across the middle last week with shallow zone drops. I expect Todd Bowles to deploy more man coverage this week across the board.

The Bucs have more talent and a big edge at quarterback. The only way they lose this game is if they beat themselves. But the team’s focus this week should prevent that from happening. Tampa Bay stays on top of the NFC South – and increases its lead by 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 26, Falcons 16
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 5-0

Matt Matera: Bucs Clobber The Falcons

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

There’s been a lot of talk of playing “pissed off” this week by the Bucs. Baker Mayfield mentioned after their last game and expounded upon it during the week. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales also spoke about how everyone on offense is holding each other accountable. The Bucs offense doesn’t need to entirely figure itself out, but it has to take many steps in the right direction or else this group has no chance of succeeding. That’s why I think the Bucs offense has a breakout game.

When Mayfield and the Bucs struggled against the Eagles in Week 3, they rebounded with a 26-point performance against the Saints the following week in a divisional matchup. The Bucs will look for a similar outcome against another NFC South rival, and I expect Mayfield to play much better. Look for Mayfield to connect with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin early and often, despite the talent that the Falcons have in the secondary.

The Falcons defense is interesting because it is limiting the number of points scored each week, but Atlanta just doesn’t record many sacks and only has three interceptions on the season. The Falcons are a bend-but-don’t-break group, so scoring in the red zone, which has been an issue for the Bucs, will be of the utmost importance.

We’ve talked plenty about “litmus tests” and “measuring sticks” for Tampa Bay. They’ll get another version of that this week, but specifically for the run game. Are they the team that couldn’t move at all against the Eagles and Lions, the group that ran well against the Bears and Saints, or somewhere in between?

The run game should also be priority number one for Tampa Bay’s defense against Atlanta’s tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Atlanta wants to run the ball because the Falcons can’t play from far behind. This is where the return of Calijah Kancey helps, especially with the uncertainty of Vita Vea’s availability. We’ll see plenty of Devin White and Lavonte David as well.

The Bucs needed to force Desmond Ridder to throw the ball a lot in this game. Ridder is wildly inconsistent and even worse on the road. Tampa Bay can also get home with its pass rush, whether blitzing or not, due to Atlanta being susceptible to allowing multiple sacks per game. With Tampa Bay’s offense picking it up, the Bucs’ defense gets it done per usual and the Bucs have their most satisfying win of the season.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 30, Falcons 10
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 4-1

Bailey Adams: Bucs Do Enough To Gain Some Separation In NFC South

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

When the Bucs had their first setback of this season against the Eagles on Monday Night Football, they rebounded extremely well by playing a complete game and winning 26-9 at New Orleans the following Sunday. Now, after putting up what Todd Bowles called a “clunker” against Detroit in Week 6, Tampa Bay needs a similar bounce-back against Atlanta.

With the Saints’ loss on Thursday night, the winner of Sunday’s game at Raymond James Stadium will have sole possession of first place in the NFC South. And I think that winner will be the Bucs.

The big key will be the health of Vita Vea. He’s dealing with a foot injury that made him a limited participant in practice on Wednesday and a non-participant on Thursday. But assuming the team is just being careful and he can suit up on Sunday and play like himself, I think he, Calijah Kancey, Logan Hall and Tampa Bay’s linebacking duo will do a good job against Atlanta’s impressive run game that features Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

Meanwhile, I think Bowles is going to make Desmond Ridder’s day very uncomfortable. The second-year quarterback is struggling as of late and his offensive line is allowing just over three sacks per game. I like Sunday to be a sack party type of day for the Bucs defense, which will help keep the Falcons’ offense in check.

From there, Dave Canales’ offense needs to do its part. Atlanta has a good defense, but Baker Mayfield and his receivers simply need to execute better to start taking advantage of the elite pass protection they’re getting from the offensive line. The run game isn’t going to be better overnight, but it needs a day more like it had against Chicago and New Orleans than the one it had against Minnesota, Philadelphia and Detroit.

This one is probably going to be pretty low-scoring, but I’m going with the Bucs yet again this week and hoping they don’t let me down like they did when I picked them a week ago. With the win, Tampa Bay jumps to 1.5 games ahead of both Atlanta and New Orleans atop the division.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Falcons 16
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 4-1

Josh Queipo: Bucs Bounce Back To Maintain Division Lead

Bucs DT Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There are very few moral victories in football. But if you believe they do exist, then trust that the Bucs found one last week. They stood toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the NFC and more than held their own. Despite Baker Mayfield having his worst game as a Buc, Tampa Bay was in the game until the fourth quarter.

Many of the things that didn’t go well for the Bucs are correctable. And I trust this coaching staff to make some of those corrections as they face the Atlanta Falcons at home. The Falcons want to beat their opponents with their rushing attack. With rookie phenom Bijan Robinson, backup Tyler Allgeier and an offensive line whose strength is supposed to be run blocking, you would think they have been a nightmare on the ground for opposing defenses.

But the reality is, they haven’t. Atlanta is averaging -0.15 expected points added per play. That’s 18th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense is holding opponents to -0.24 epa/play on the year. That’s second in the NFL behind only the Cowboys. I am looking for the Bucs to not necessarily shut down the Falcons’ run game, but stymie it enough to make it unsustainable for creating a path to victory for Atlanta.

On the offensive side of the ball, I hope offensive coordinator Dave Canales notices the Falcons also have a stout run defense and strives to establish the passing game early to get out to a fast start. If the Bucs can get out in front by two or more scores, they can force the Falcons to rely on the arm of second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. And I’ll take the Bucs defense in that matchup all day long and twice on Sunday (see what I did there?)

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Falcons 13
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 4-1

Adam Slivon: Bucs Gain Early Foothold In NFC South

Bucs DTs Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall and OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are looking to start off their season 4-2 and ramp up before a four-game stretch that includes facing the Bills, the upstart Texans and the 49ers. It’s no wonder that a lot of the players, especially on offense, have come out to practice seriously this week and have taken ownership of putting up just six points against the Lions.

This week that should not be the case.

Outside of safety Jessie Bates III, there is not a lot of playmaking being generated by Atlanta’s defense. This will presumably allow for the Bucs’ offense to establish the balance it has been seeking through the air and the ground. Tampa Bay will have no problem increasing their scoring output from a week ago, but there needs to be notable improvement from a few players.

It starts with quarterback Baker Mayfield and extends to wide receiver Mike Evans and running back Rachaad White. For White specifically, it is paramount that he has a better game before the going gets tough again against more-established run defenses.

Switching sides and looking at the Bucs defense versus the Falcons offense, there is a lot to like from Tampa Bay’s side of things. Quarterback Desmond Ridder does not look like the long-term answer for Atlanta, having thrown six interceptions through six games. Ridder does not ‘wow’ with his arm talent and profiles more as a game-manager than a game-winner. But forcing the ball in his hands means jumping out to an early lead and limiting electric rookie running back Bijan Robinson.

Robinson is the total package in the backfield and already looks like a problem the Bucs will have to face twice a year. He is supported by one of the better offensive lines in football, a group that excels in run blocking. The Bucs’ front seven will have their hands full all afternoon.

Ultimately, I predict the Bucs play “pissed off” enough to win on Sunday. They have the edge in the talent department, and the opportunities for big plays on both sides of the ball will be more than there for the taking.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Falcons 16
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 4-1