It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

With a 16-13 defeat at the hands of the visiting Atlanta Falcons, the Bucs have lost back-to-back games – as well as the lead in the NFC South division. Tampa Bay’s offense continues to struggle mightily in the red zone and attempting to run the ball.

The Bucs defense forced three Desmond Ridder fumbles in the red zone, but allowed a big 39-yard catch-and-run by tight end Kyle Pitts to move the Falcons into position for the game-winning field goal.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: It’s Time For The Bucs To Bench Some Players

It’s not time for the Bucs to push the panic button yet. Even after a brutal 16-13 loss to the Falcons on Sunday that dropped their record at home to 1-3, Tampa Bay is still 3-3 with 11 games left in the season. Even though the team lost its grip on the NFC South lead for the moment, this division won’t be decided in October or November.

Like last year, it is destined to be decided in December. Technically, the Bucs won the NFC South last year on Jan. 1, coming back to beat the Panthers 30-24.

But too often by the time teams push the panic button, which is often code for personnel changes, it’s too late.

I’ve seen enough of certain players. You’ve seen enough of certain players. It’s time for the coaches to wake up and see it as well.

The Bucs need to make some personnel changes this week – before it becomes too late.

I realize that Tampa Bay has a very short week with a Thursday Night Football game at Buffalo. But there is a mini-bye week next weekend as a result, and the Bucs will have 10 days off before their game at Houston the following week. That’s ample time to make some much-needed personnel adjustments on offense and defense and truly put the best 11 on the field.

“We’ve got a short week,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “We evaluate everything and we go from there, but we’ll see.”

Replace Ryan Neal With Dee Delaney

Ryan Neal is not a playmaker. He’s a JAG – just a guy. I can’t think of any impact plays that Neal has made this year in Tampa Bay.

The only big plays I can recall are the ones that Neal gives up for the opponent. Two weeks ago, it was failing to break up the pass on a 45-yard touchdown catch by Jameson Williams. On Sunday, it was getting caught flat-footed in Cover 2 on Kyle Pitts’ 39-yard catch-and-run that set the Falcons up for their game-winning field goal.

Bucs DB Dee Delaney – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Neal was an undrafted free agent out of Southern Illinois who had a decent 40-yard dash time of 4.47, but a poor agility score. That doesn’t serve him well playing safety, and it showed up on the Pitts play where the tight end gained 21 yards after the catch because Neal couldn’t make the tackle.

Dee Delaney is a versatile backup in the Keith Tandy mold, if you remember the reserve defensive back in the Greg Schiano, Lovie Smith and Dirk Koetter days. He’s a jack of all trades and master of none. But we did see Delaney play almost the entire game at strong safety for Neal, who had a concussion, in New Orleans and has a 73.2 PFF grade and a 70.3 coverage grade.

Entering Sunday’s game against Atlanta, Neal had a 47 PFF grade with a 45.2 coverage grade. It surely didn’t go up much after the loss.

By the way, Delaney is still tied for the team lead in interceptions with two. This seems like a very logical personnel move to make, Todd Bowles.

Replace Matt Feiler With Nick Leverett

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and OL Nick Leverett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Heading into Sunday’s game, left guard Matt Feiler had a 59.7 Pro Football Focus grade, including a 53.4 run blocking grade. Center Robert Hainsey is on par with an equally bad 57.4 grade. Rookie right guard Cody Mauch is even worse with a 42.5 PFF grade and an awful 34.2 run blocking grade.

The Bucs run a mid-zone run scheme, mixed in with some duo gap scheme runs. Most of the runs are between the tackles because the tight ends are so awful at blocking that they can’t hold up the edge at the point of attack on wide zone runs. Despite being 6-foot-6, 330 pounds, Feiler gets little to no push at the line of scrimmage on running plays.

It’s time to play Nick Leverett – whether it’s at center replacing Hainsey or at either guard spot. The Bucs replaced Luke Goedeke with Leverett last year in Week 8 and improved the left guard spot. Leverett isn’t a world beater and only produced a 64 PFF grade with a meh 55.8 run blocking grade last year. But he’s younger, feistier and more athletic than the 31-year old Feiler is.

When Mauch was blocked into Feiler’s knee on Cade Otton’s catch with a minute and a half left in regulation, I turned to fellow Pewter Reporter Bailey Adams in the press box and said: “They need to replace Feiler with Nick Leverett right now. Feiler is hurt and not coming out of the game, which is stupid. He’s going to give up a sack.”

Sure enough, three plays later on third-and-goal from the Atlanta 8, David Onyemata beats Feiler and sacks Baker Mayfield, forcing a field goal to tie the game.

Give Leverett a shot at replacing Feiler. If not Leverett, maybe Aaron Stinnie.

While he’s also the backup center, I like Leverett much better at guard than I do replacing Hainsey. I’m not sure Leverett would be an upgrade at center. I don’t think Mauch is playing as bad as the PFF grades suggest. He’s not struggling as bad as Goedeke did at guard last year and Mauch needs playing time to gain experience.

Replace Ke’Shawn Vaughn With Sean Tucker And Patrick Laird

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I do not understand what the fascination is with playing backup running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn. He seems like a tackle for loss waiting to happen. Vaughn has 19 carries for 32 yards this year and is averaging a pathetic 1.7 yards per carry. Part of it is poor run blocking up front, but Vaughn doesn’t have the speed to get out of trouble or the tackle-breaking ability to create on his own.

He’s just a guy, and if the Bucs cut him – as they should – I seriously doubt he winds up on another roster. Maybe a practice squad.

Speaking of practice squad, I’m ready to see Patrick Laird get called up from the practice squad to be RB4. Yep, that’s how bad this Bucs’ backfield is right now.

Give Vaughn’s carries to rookie Sean Tucker. Granted, Tucker has just 15 carries for 23 yards, which is an even worse 1.5-yard average. But after watching Vaughn, who is one of Jason Licht’s worst draft picks, for four years we know what he is. We don’t know what Tucker is yet. So let’s see.

Stop the insanity, Dave Canales – which is doing the same thing over and over with giving Vaughn carries and expecting a different outcome. Any carry or target by Vaughn has proven to be a wasted down this year.

STATEMENT 2: There’s A LOT Of Football Left

Bucs WRs Deven Thompkins and Trey Palmer – Photo by: USA Today

I can make this point very succinctly. The Bucs have played six games so far and are 3-3. They are 1-1 in the NFC South and will likely need to split the series with the Falcons later in the year to have a shot at three-peating as division champs.

But there are 11 games left. And after Thursday’s game at Buffalo, the Bucs will still have 10 games remaining in their season with plenty of winnable games ahead.

The NFC South is still an underwhelming division. Tampa Bay won the NFC South with an 8-9 record last year and it hasn’t gotten much better in 2023.

The division might be won with a 9-8 record this year depending on how it plays out. Sunday’s home loss to Atlanta certainly seemed like a gut punch, but it was definitely not a knockout blow.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: What Can Be Done To Help The Woeful Running Game?

Bucs OT Justin Skule – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So much work needs to be done to run the ball better. But short of finding new interior offensive linemen and new running backs, which isn’t going to happen in late October, the one thing Tampa Bay can do is replace a tight end with an offensive lineman. Cade Otton is a terrible run blocker. Ko Kieft isn’t much better, and he brings no value as a receiver.

The Bucs would be wise to just take a tight end off the field and substitute an offensive lineman as an extra tight end. Whether it’s Nick Leverett or Justin Skule, use them on the edge of the offensive line and maybe the outside, off-tackle plays will open up for Tampa Bay. The Bucs used that down the stretch in 2020 and in 2021 with some success with Joe Haeg and Josh Wells.

Run game coordinator Harold Goodwin needs to go back to that concept, even if it’s a bit predictable. Heck, it’s usually a predictable run call with Kieft in the game anyways. So why not add more size and power at the point off attack on perimeter runs, Dave Canales?

QUESTION 2: Can The Bucs Fix Their Woeful Offense?

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s offense has regressed since the win at New Orleans. After putting up 26 points, scoring three touchdowns in the red zone, and rushing for 114 yards, the Bucs offense scored just six points in a loss to the Lions and only scored 13 points in a loss to the Falcons. Four trips inside the red zone netted just four field goals and no touchdowns in the last two weeks.

Tampa Bay ran the ball for only 46 yards against Detroit, and just 73 yards versus Atlanta – 31 of which came on a Baker Mayfield scramble.

Perhaps some good news is the fact that Tampa Bay plays at Buffalo on a very short week for Thursday Night Football. It’s doubtful the Bucs get their red zone woes and awful running game fixed in just four days time. But the team will have 10 days off before traveling to Houston to play the Texans.

The coaches will get a mini-bye week to watch the tape and try to make some necessary adjustments as a result.

The last time the Bucs had a weekend off was their Week 4 bye week. Tampa Bay was 3-1 and sky high following a big win at New Orleans. Perhaps the coaches glossed over some of the warts on film or were too positive and optimistic with the arrow pointing up after beating the Saints.

But after two straight home losses, and what could be a third straight loss if the team loses at Buffalo, the mood and the vibe watching film over the upcoming weekend off will certainly be much different than it was after the team’s 3-1 start. Win or lose on Thursday night, the Bucs coaches don’t need to go anywhere next weekend but their offices to evaluate what’s working – and do more of it – and what’s not working – and do less of it.

The film will certainly get a more critical eye from the coaches at either 4-3 or 3-4, and the Bucs could be better off down the stretch as a result of the work put in next weekend after the Bills game.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

Prediction 1: Devin White Is Not Going To Get A New Contract In Tampa Bay

Bucs ILBs Lavonte David and Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

When a team like Atlanta runs the ball 38 times, mostly between the tackles, it sure seems like the middle linebacker would be poised to get double-digit tackles. Lavonte David did, leading Tampa Bay with 13 stops. Safety Ryan Neal and Jamel Dean came through with 10 tackles apiece. Shaq Barrett and Antoine Winfield Jr. each created takeaways and had seven tackles each.

Meanwhile, Devin White registered just five tackles. His zone coverage in the middle of the defense was soft, as was his effort in getting off blocks on Sunday. White’s effort in trying to land a lucrative contract extension in Tampa Bay or elsewhere is not going well. He’s hardly made any splash plays through six games, save for an errant throw by Jalen Hurts that was right at him. White’s lone interception in two years came in a Week 3 loss and it was in self defense.

White is being severely outplayed by the 33-year old David, who is making just $4.5 million this season. If I’m the Bucs, I let White walk in free agency and see what his market value is before I even make him an offer. There is no way White deserves $20 million per season, much less the $11.706 million he’s making this season.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has a blind spot for White and will want him back regardless of how he finishes the season. But general manager Jason Licht needs to win this personnel battle and only re-sign White if he comes in less next year at around $10 million per season. I don’t think that happens and I don’t think White stays in Tampa Bay.

Players drafted No. 5 overall have to be playmakers and make splash plays – like Antoine Winfield Jr. has done all season, for example. White is nowhere close to the playmaker Winfield is this year. No sacks. No forced fumbles. No fumble recoveries. No pass breakups. Just one interception on an errant pass by Jalen Hurts that was thrown right at White.

Here are White’s Pro Football Focus grades prior to Sunday’s loss to Atlanta.

White also had an inexcusable mental lapse on Sunday, leaving running back Tyler Allgeier in coverage to chase a scrambling Desmond Ridder. Antoine Winfield Jr. was bearing down on Ridder, and once White left his man to join the pursuit, Ridder tossed the ball over White’s head to an open Allgeier, who rambled 46 yards for a huge gain.

Prediction 2: It’s Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Tampa Bay likely won’t win on Thursday Night Football at Buffalo, so brace yourselves, Bucs fans.

The Bills are reeling from a big upset at the hands of the previously 1-5 New England Patriots and have the ability to score more points than the Bucs. Even with Tampa Bay playing stingy red zone defense, forcing three takeaways and holding the Falcons to just 16 points, the Bucs still lost because they couldn’t score touchdowns.

Tampa Bay will fall to 3-4 on the season with a loss to Buffalo. I hope I’m wrong about this prediction, but I don’t think I’m going to be.

“We’ve got to be able to score points,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “We’re going to have to be able to run the ball, we’re going to have to be able to throw it and execute better in the red zone all the way around.”