The Bucs don’t have much time to sulk and lament what went wrong in Sunday’s 16-13 loss to the Falcons that cost them their lead in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has a short week, turning right around to head north for a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Bills in Buffalo.

This is a big game for the Bucs, as they’re now 3-3 after two straight losses. And even though the Bills have struggled this year, Tampa Bay certainly isn’t favored to make that 4-3 on Thursday night. Todd Bowles and his team have to stop the bleeding by avoiding a third straight loss. It won’t be easy.

As frustrating as Sunday’s defeat against the Falcons was, it wasn’t a knockout punch for the Bucs. They’re a half-game back in the division with 11 games to play, and all it takes to get their lead back before their mini-bye week is a win over the Bills on Thursday and a Falcons loss at the Titans on Sunday. That’s easier said than done on both fronts, but Bowles and his team have to do their part at the very least and avoid falling below .500 for the first time this year.

The Last Time…

Bucs WR Breshad Perriman – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay and Buffalo last met at Raymond James Stadium in 2021, and it was a thriller. The Bucs led 24-3 at halftime off the back of a 47-yard touchdown run by Leonard Fournette, a 13-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Mike Evans and a 1-yard touchdown run by Brady. But Brady and Co. definitely didn’t coast to a win.

Despite trailing 27-10 early in the fourth quarter, the visiting Bills scored 17 straight points to force overtime. After seemingly losing all momentum, the Buccaneers defense got a three-and-out to open overtime and then the offense responded by walking it off thanks to a 58-yard touchdown pass from Brady to Breshad Perriman. It was Brady’s 700th career passing touchdown, and the legendary quarterback improved his career record against Buffalo to 33-3.

The Bucs lead the all-time series with the Bills 8-4. The last time these two teams met in Buffalo was 2017, and that was a 30-27 Tampa Bay loss. In two trips to Buffalo all-time, the Bucs are 0-2.

How The Bucs And Bills Are Trending

These two teams had wildly different expectations coming into the year, yet both have had their highs and lows in the first seven weeks of the season.

The Bucs, projected to be a last-place team with potential to pick in the Top 5 of next year’s draft, have had some highs (wins over the Vikings, Bears and Saints) and some lows (ugly losses to the Eagles, Lions and Falcons). That has them at 3-3 and right in the thick of the race in a bad NFC South, though they’re trending in the wrong direction as November approaches.

Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

The Bills came into 2023 as a team expected to cruise to the playoffs once again and potentially make a deep run toward the Super Bowl. Instead, Buffalo has had its own ups and downs.

There was a Week 1 overtime loss to to a Jets team that had lost Aaron Rodgers early in the game, but then there was a 34-point win at the Commanders in Week 3 and a 28-point win over the high-flying Dolphins in Week 4.

The lows have been a lot lower as of late. The Bills lost 25-20 to the Jaguars in London a few weeks ago, then came back home to beat the struggling Giants in unconvincing fashion, escaping with a 14-9 victory and needing an uncalled pass interference to do so. The cracks that they showed in those two games persisted this past week in a 29-25 loss at the Patriots, who have barely had a pulse this season.

So at 4-3, the Bills are behind the 5-2 Dolphins in the AFC East. And despite that blowout win over Miami back in Week 4, Buffalo’s inconsistency has them trending more toward falling below the 3-3 Jets for third place than overtaking that top spot.

Here’s how the Bucs and Bills stack up heading into Week 8:

Bucs Offense: T-26th in scoring offense (17.2 PPG), 23rd in total offense (297.7 yards per game), 15th in passing offense (219.8 yards per game), 29th in rushing offense (77.8 yards per game)

Bills Offense: 3rd in scoring offense (28.3 PPG), 5th in total offense (369.7 yards per game), 6th in passing offense (256.9 yards per game), 14th in rushing offense (112.9 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 6th in scoring defense (17.3 points allowed per game), 20th in total defense (342.5 yards allowed per game), 27th in passing defense (246.7 yards allowed per game), 10th in rushing offense (95.8 yards allowed per game)

Bills Defense: 5th in scoring defense (16.9 points allowed per game), 14th in total defense (329.6 yards allowed per game), 10th in passing defense (201.3 yards allowed per game), 23rd in rushing defense (128.3 yards allowed per game)

As of Tuesday night, Buffalo was an 8.5-point favorite with an Over/Under set at 42 points (per MyBookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Bills Matchup?

Bucs OC Dave Canales – photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

Tampa Bay certainly doesn’t have just one singular problem. There are quite a few the coaches and players need to work through, but perhaps one of the biggest concerns right now is the Bucs’ red zone offense. Baker Mayfield and the offense are scoring touchdowns on just 37.5% of red zone trips, which ranks 28th in the NFL.

Red zone struggles were costly in losses to the Lions and Falcons, and the Bucs can’t afford to settle for field goals on Thursday night as they go up against Josh Allen and a Bills offense averaging 28.3 points per game.

Dave Canales needs to find a way to get Mike Evans involved and open in the red zone. Chris Godwin is due for a red zone touchdown (or a touchdown of any kind), as he hasn’t scored since December of last year. Or even as bad as the run game has been, perhaps running the ball inside the 20 will yield better results. Whatever the solution is, Canales, Mayfield and the offense need to find it. Otherwise, Tampa Bay will come up short on the scoreboard once again.

Defensively, the Bucs need to be better on third downs if they have any chance of beating Buffalo. The Bills are converting on 48.3% of third downs — third-best in the league — while Todd Bowles’ defense is allowing opponents to convert on 50% of third downs, which is the worst mark in the NFL.

Bucs LB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Whether it’s Bowles dialing up more blitzes with Antoine Winfield Jr. or Devin White or playing more man coverage instead of going zone, something has to be done to get Tampa Bay’s defense off the field.

As for the Bills, they’re the favorites here. If they play to their potential, they can beat anyone in the NFL, much less the Bucs. But they’ve been sluggish as of late and as good as Josh Allen is, turnovers have been a problem for him in 2023. He has thrown seven interceptions and lost two fumbles in seven games. Only twice this season has he gone a game without an interception.

At his best, Allen is extremely difficult to stop. He’s a true dual-threat quarterback who is unlike most quarterbacks in the league, plus he has Stefon Diggs to throw to. Add in Gabriel Davis — always a deep threat — and there’s plenty to work with. But Allen has to cut out the mistakes and turnovers. If he’s giving the ball away, Tampa Bay will have a chance to stay in it.

On the Bills’ defense, stopping the run has proven difficult this year. The Jets ran for 172 yards on them in Week 1, while the Commanders, Dolphins, Jaguars and Giants all topped 100 yards on the ground against them as well. Jacksonville went for 196 in London a few weeks ago. And even last week, Buffalo allowed 96 rushing yards in its loss to New England.

Luckily for head coach and defensive play-caller Sean McDermott, his unit is coming up against what has been a pathetic rushing attack for the Bucs. If there was ever a game for Buffalo’s 23rd-ranked run defense to improve, it would be this one. The same can be said for Tampa Bay’s 29th-ranked rushing offense, so something has to give here.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Baker Mayfield has to get back on track on Thursday night. He was playing well in the Bucs’ first four games and looked to have found the career revival he was searching for, but he — and the team — have taken a step back in the last two weeks.

He just hasn’t been sharp and isn’t finding open receivers, plus he has thrown an interception in four straight games dating back to Week 3. The run game doesn’t appear like it’s going to help him out at all, but fair or not, the offense is on Mayfield’s shoulders and he needs to pick things up.

With all due respect to Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr. has been the best player on Tampa Bay’s defense this year. The fourth-year safety is positioning himself extremely well for his next contract, as he’s been making play after play to pick up what has otherwise been a playmaker-less secondary this year. He has five passes defensed, three forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and two sacks this year, and the Bucs may need him to force another turnover on Thursday night.

Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

Everything for the Bills starts with quarterback Josh Allen. He’s had three straight 4,000-yard passing seasons with 35-plus passing touchdowns in each, plus he’s rushed for 700-plus yards in back-to-back years. The 2018 No. 7 overall pick has also never rushed for fewer than six touchdowns in a season.

This year, he already has four scores on the ground and 15 passing touchdowns. He can flat-out make plays, and he’ll undoubtedly be one of the top five quarterbacks Tampa Bay sees this year.

The Bills defense is full of studs, with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde making plays at safety and a fearsome defensive front that features Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa and Daquan Jones, who all with multiple sacks so far this year. Von Miller is also always one to account for, though he’s been working his way back from injury as of late.

But the leading slacker for Buffalo has been Leonard Floyd, who already has 6.5 in seven games. Floyd is one to worry about Thursday, but there are plenty of impact players on this defense that has 25 sacks, eight interceptions and nine forced fumbles this year.

Bucs at Bills Game Information

When: Thursday, Oct. 26
Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime Video – Al Michaels (Play by Play), Kirk Herbstreit (Analyst), Kaylee Hartung (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)