BUCS at COLTS

WHEN: Sunday, November 26, 2023 | WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Spero Dedes | ANALYST: Adam Archuleta | SIDELINE: Amanda Renner

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Downward Spiral For Bucs Continues

Bucs OC Dave Canales and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Can the Bucs win five of their last seven games to make a run at the playoffs and the NFC South title? Yes, they can. But will they? That’s the real question.

Let’s take a step back and realize that the Bucs won four of their first 10 games. Takeaway predictable losses to upper echelon teams like Philadelphia, Detroit, Buffalo and San Francisco and the Bucs have four wins out of six games against beatable opponents. That’s pretty much what they have to do now down the stretch, as the margin for error is razor thin.

Compounding the issue is the fact that one of the team’s best players, leading tackler Lavonte David, is out, as well as cornerback Jamel Dean, and the task becomes tougher. Cornerback Carlton Davis III (hip) and inside linebacker Devin White (foot) are also banged up and are game-time decisions. Even if either or both plays, will they be able to finish the game in Indianapolis?

Todd Bowles’ defense has had to wear the superhero cape on a weekly basis this season, but right now the defense is really wounded and could have to rely on several young players, such as rookie inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis, rookie safety Kaevon Merriweather and rookie cornerbacks Josh Hayes and Keenan Isaac. Indianapolis’ offense is not a juggernaut by any means, especially with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew at the helm. But one wrong misfit in the running game could mean a touchdown for Jonathan Taylor, and one blown coverage could result in a touchdown for Michael Pittman Jr.

Can the Bucs offense, which has struggled to score points all season, step up and save the day? The offense has yet to show its worthy of wearing the superhero cape due to self-inflicted wounds, such as penalties, drops and turnovers. This should be a Bucs win, but feels like it’s going to be a disappointing loss, which would be the team’s sixth in the last seven games.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Colts 23, Bucs 20
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 7-3

Matt Matera: Despite Injuries, Bucs Piece Together A Win

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are going into this game against the Colts a bit short-handed as many of their top defensive players will be out. Inside linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean won’t be available. That means the Bucs will have either rookie inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis lining up next to Devin White (if he can play with his foot injury) or three-year player K.J. Britt getting playing time as well.

The Colts are going to want to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor, and going up against White, who struggles getting off of blocks and an inexperienced linebacker is pretty ideal for Indy. Because of this, Tampa Bay is going to need a huge game from their interior defensive linemen – Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey. If they can limit the amount of times the running back will get to the second level, the Bucs will be better off if Gardner Minshew continuously has to throw.

I hope that the Bucs defense will stack the box to stop the run, which makes the corners play man-to-man. It did hurt Tampa Bay on a big play last week, but we’re talking about the 49ers vs. the Colts offense. A player I’d keep an eye on is wide receiver Josh Downs. He’s on all the smaller side but is very fast. The Bucs have struggled with those receivers recently.

The Bucs offense is starting to come together over the last three weeks and 14 points against the 49ers doesn’t paint the entire picture. They’ve been moving the ball consistently and just have made some bad mistakes when getting to the red zone. Those have to be eliminated, but outside of that, just stick to the game plan.

Everyone would love to see a couple of more targets to Mike Evans, but all-in-all, Baker Mayfield just has to make sure he doesn’t turn the ball over. Keep peppering Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White in the passing game. Mix in some different runs and find a way for someone else to contribute when possible. The Bucs can keep the NFC South race intriguing if they can come up with a win on Sunday.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Colts 19
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 7-3

Bailey Adams: Bucs Offense Leads The Way To A Win For Once

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are a mediocre 4-6, yet they still find themselves in the hunt for the playoffs. The NFC South title is well within reach and a win over the Colts on Sunday combined with a Falcons win over the Saints would actually have Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Atlanta in a three-way tie for the division lead with six games to go.

But can the Bucs beat the Colts? Repeating the formula that earned them their four wins may prove difficult, as the defense carried them to wins over the Vikings, Bears, Saints and Titans and is now very banged up as the team heads to Indianapolis.

With the potential for as many as four starters to be missing for the Tampa Bay defense on Sunday, I’m hesitant to think that unit can carry the team to a win, even against an inconsistent Gardner Minshew and a Colts offense that scored just 10 points last time out after exploding for 25+ the three weeks before that.

So if the Bucs are going to get to 5-6 and stay alive in the division race, Dave Canales’ offense is going to need to do something it hasn’t done all year — win the team a game. In Tampa Bay’s wins, the offense has played well enough. But Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneer offense need to pull it together and put up points. They need to be the reason the Bucs win and pick up the defense this week as it might struggle due to some big injuries.

You know what? I think Mayfield and Co. will do it. Get Rachaad White the ball in space, let Mike Evans and Chris Godwin do their thing, hit some big plays to Trey Palmer and/or Deven Thompkins and protect the football. Do that and let the defense have the “do just enough” side of things and I think Tampa Bay can win a close one. If not, it’ll probably be time to simply write this team off. Because while they would still be in it mathematically with a loss here, they haven’t proven they can win consistently enough to make a run.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Colts 28
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 6-4

Josh Queipo: Bucs Offense Comes To Life To Get An Important Win

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Believe it or not, the Bucs offense is close to being good. Headed into Week 12, they are middle of the pack in EPA per play and there are positive indicators in almost every facet of that side of the ball. Play-calling is improving, Baker Mayfield has been showing overall good play at the quarterback position, and the running game had several improved runs against a very stout 49ers defense last week.

If each of those facets can simply cut down on the 1-3 backbreaking reps they make each game don’t be surprised if Tampa Bay’s offense is all of a sudden a top 10 unit in the NFL. And I think that starts on Sunday.

On defense, it will be a much harder road to hoe. With the likely absence of Lavonte David, Devin White and Jamel Dean, and possibly Carlton Davis III, this under-performing unit is likely to struggle again. The Colts have several playmakers in Michael Pittman Jr., and Josh Downs, who can take advantage of what will be a weak back seven.

But Tampa Bay will still be able to shut down what Indianapolis wants to do most, which is run the ball in what may be a surprising shootout. I see the Bucs getting a key turnover of Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew to help seal the victory and keep the Bucs’ playoff hopes alive.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 34, Colts 27
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 7-3

Adam Slivon: Bucs Do Just Enough To Prevail In Indy

It’s going to take a lot for the Bucs to pull off a win against the Colts in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon. With the statuses of many defensive starters up in the air, it will take a collective effort from some young players to step up and contain a Colts’ offense led by Gardner Minshew, Jonathan Taylor, and top receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. 

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While Minshew doesn’t light up the stat sheet, he has taken over the reins of a team putting up 24.2 points per game. Since Taylor’s return to the lineup, he has not fully returned to his previous form but is still more than capable of breaking a big game.

The Bucs will have their hands full limiting Pittman and Downs, especially if Carlton Davis III can’t go with Jamel Dean already being ruled out. It will then be up to Zyon McCollum and Josh Hayes on the boundary. The defense’s injuries extend to inside linebacker, where the team will surely hope Devin White suits up with Lavonte David also out of action.

If the defense can do just enough, the offense could be primed for a big showing. The Colts have given up 24.8 points per game, and despite impressive efforts by Zaire Franklin (117 tackles) and their pass rush (30 sacks), they are apt to allow points in bunches. The Bucs have shown promise on offense in recent weeks but have not been able to fully execute.

This sets up as a game where the offense can be more balanced as the Colts have given up 129.7 rushing yards a game. With that said, I expect Rachaad White to have more success on the ground to open it up for Baker Mayfield to be able to pick his spots and have one of his better games this season. It will be close, but the Bucs should get by and keep their playoff hopes alive.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Colts 21
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 8-2