The Bucs knew heading into play on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium that a win over the Falcons would move them into a tie atop the NFC South standings. And despite letting a nine-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter, Tampa Bay did get the win it needed. Baker Mayfield’s 11-yard touchdown pass to Cade Otton with 31 seconds remaining was the difference in a 29-25 win that kept the team’s hopes of a division title three-peat alive.

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs’ dramatic win gave them a season series split with the Falcons, preventing Atlanta from taking control of the division and the key head-to-head tiebreaker. Both teams are 6-7 now, and after head-to-head, the tiebreaker goes to divisional records. Both teams are 3-1 in the division. What it comes down to from there is record against common opponents. That’s where the Bucs have the edge right now, and it’s why they currently hold first place in the division.

The other half of the division squared off in New Orleans on Sunday, and the Saints beat the Panthers, 28-6. The Saints are now 6-7 too, meaning they’re tied atop the division with the Bucs and Falcons. However, New Orleans is 2-2 in NFC South play, putting them below both Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

That means, with four weeks to go, Todd Bowles and his team have control of their own destiny.

Here are the updated NFC South standings through Week 14:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-7 (3-1 in the NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons: 6-7 (3-1 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints: 6-7 (2-2 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers: 1-12 (0-4 in the NFC South)

Bucs Control Their Destiny For Now, But Need Their Best Over Final 4 Weeks

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Had the Bucs lost to the Falcons on Sunday, their hopes of winning the division for a third straight year and making the playoffs for a fourth would’ve been effectively dead. They would’ve been 5-8 and two games behind the Falcons. That would’ve meant needing to win out and get some help elsewhere.

But now, with the win over Atlanta in Week 14, Tampa Bay controls its own destiny. So, if the team takes care of business over the final four games, it won’t have to worry about getting help from other teams and hoping other divisional mates slip up. Of course, as quickly as they earned control of their own playoff fate on Sunday, they could just as easily lose it within a week.

The Bucs’ next two weeks are sure to be challenging, as they’ll head up to Lambeau Field next week to face the rapidly improving Jordan Love and his Packers team that has won three straight heading into a Monday night matchup against the Giants. From there, Tampa Bay will return home. Trevor Lawrence and the 8-5 Jaguars will await them on Christmas Eve. So as big as Sunday’s win was, things could very quickly turn for the Bucs if they don’t have their best down the stretch.

Managing a split of the next two games would at least give Tampa Bay a chance in the end. The team would be 7-8 heading into a New Year’s Eve home game against the Saints and a regular season finale in Carolina against the 1-win Panthers.

Things change by the week in this mediocre and chaotic division, but for the time being, the Bucs are in pole position.

Here is how the schedule looks for the three teams contending atop the NFC South:

Bucs: at Packers (6-6)*, vs. Jaguars (8-5), vs. Saints (6-7), at Panthers (1-12)

Falcons: at Panthers (1-12), vs. Colts (7-6), at Chicago (5-8), at Saints (6-7)

Saints: vs. Giants (4-8)*, at Rams (6-7), at Tampa Bay (6-7), vs. Falcons (6-7)

*- Team had not played its Week 14 game at time of publication