BUCS at PACKERS

WHEN: Sunday, December 17, 2023 | WHERE: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, WI) | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: CBS

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Andrew Catalon | ANALYSTS: Tiki Barber & Matt Ryan | SIDELINE: AJ Ross

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: I’m Tempted To Pick The Bucs … But I Can’t

I predicted the Bucs to lose last week in Atlanta because I thought Tampa Bay would be out-coached. As it turns out, the Falcons did what the Falcons usually do – they Falconed. That means they choked. Younghoe Koo, one of the best and most reliable kickers in the NFL today missed two field goals and that was the difference in a 29-25 victory for the Bucs. Tampa Bay has some momentum with a two-game winning streak, but it’s come at the expense of two bad teams in Carolina and Atlanta.

Packers QB Jordan Love – Photo by: USA Today

The Packers had an ugly, last-second loss to the Giants on Monday Night Football, but had rattled off three straight wins prior to that, including an impressive victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving as well as beating Kansas City at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is banged up right now, perhaps even more so than Tampa Bay, so the winner could be the team with the most able bodies.

When healthy, the Packers have four talented receivers that the Bucs will have a challenge covering in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. And we know how Tampa Bay’s secondary is prone to having at least one major coverage bust almost weekly.

If this game were in Tampa Bay I might be inclined to pick the Bucs because of how they have been taking the ball away on defense and running the ball so well offensively. But Packers quarterback Jordan Love doesn’t turn the ball over much. In fact, he’s thrown eight touchdowns and just one interception in the past four games. Because the Bucs are so reliant on turnovers, I think the Packers win if they can protect the ball effectively.

Baker Mayfield has done a great job of that for the Bucs, but he’s also completed just under 50% of his passes for the past two weeks, which is concerning. Is Mayfield in a mini-slump? If so he needs to snap out of it on Sunday. The Bucs need him to play well and rush for 125 yards or more to have a chance, but I think the Packers prevail at home.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Packers 26, Bucs 24
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Matt Matera: Bucs Lose Big Game As Nobody Wants To Lead The Division

The NFL very much so is a “What have you done for me lately?” kind of league. But I’m not sure if that necessarily applies for Bucs vs. Packers. The Bucs have some momentum after winning two games in a row, especially the most recent one coming late in the game to take back first place in the NFC South. But, those two wins came over the Panthers and Falcons. The NFC South by far is the worst division in football, so how much credit should the Bucs get?

Packers DT Kenny Clark – Photo by: USA Today

On the other side of it, many will look at the Packers’ debacle of a loss to the Giants and question their legitimacy for a playoff push. While there’s a reasonable case to be made, I’d also argue that I don’t think one bad loss on the road erases what they were able to do in prior weeks, winning three games in a row including games over the Lions and Chiefs.

Ask yourself this, who would you rather have at quarterback in this game? Baker Mayfield or Jordan Love? My answer would still be Love.

A lot of this game will be a war of attrition to see who’s healthy enough going into it. Each side is likely going to be down a couple of their best players so it’ll be a matter of who can overcome it best. The run game is another big time angle in this contest. If Tampa Bay wins it’ll be because Rachaad White had a major impact. Green Bay has been atrocious stopping the run over the last month and that plays right into the hands of Dave Canales.

It seems like every Bucs game comes down to the wire, so why should this one be any different? They’ll also have to account for the Packers’ run game, regardless of which back is playing. The Packers are undefeated at Lambeau Field in December under Matt LaFleur, I don’t see the Bucs as the team who is going to stop the trend.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Packers 27, Bucs 22
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 8-5

Bailey Adams: Having A Hard Time Picking These Bucs To Win At Lambeau

There was a point in this season where this felt like it could be a nothing game for both teams, but suddenly it’s carrying a whole lot of meaning. The Bucs have a narrow lead in the NFC South via tiebreaker and the Packers are clinging to the No. 7 seed in the NFC via tiebreaker themselves.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

A win for either team will go a long way toward their playoff hopes. If the Bucs win, it helps them strengthen their grip on the division, but it also gives them a key win over a team that they could be competing with for a wild card spot should they fail to win the NFC South.

The other side of it is the same for the Packers — a win strengthens their positioning in the playoff picture, while a loss could badly damage their hopes of cracking the postseason field.

What’s even more fun about this high-stakes game is it’s hard to call. The Packers will probably be able to throw the ball all over the Bucs given the struggles of Tampa Bay’s pass defense. Though there is the caveat that Green Bay is banged up at receiver, so Todd Bowles and Co. could be catching a break there.

On the flip side, the Bucs have improved their run game enough to where it should be able to have a big day against a porous run defense that ranks 31st in the NFL.

My brain is telling me to pick the Bucs here because I think the matchup might favor them. But my gut tells me not to back the Bucs to put together a three-game winning streak with a win at Lambeau Field. Give me the Cheeseheads, I guess.

(This is good news for you Pewter People — I always get these wrong.)

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Packers 24, Bucs 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 7-6

Josh Queipo: Bucs Fail To Maintain Momentum In Green Bay

Riding high coming off of a two-game win streak, there is a path to victory for Tampa Bay. The Packers’ defense is not good, ranking 23rd in the NFL in EPA/play allowed. The center of their issues stem from a pass defense that is susceptible to allowing the big play.

Explosive plays allowed on defense through 14 weeks of the season. Flipped the table this time so best teams are at the top, shoutout Brian Flores man just a great coach pic.twitter.com/f5udbqwuM4

— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) December 13, 2023

Packers WR Romeo Doubs – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs offense has attempted to be a big-play attack this season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has attempted 59 throws of 20+ air yards. This is tied for the fourth-most such attempts in the NFL and his 9.3 average depth of target is second in the league. But, unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they have been unable to hit on these plays with any kind of consistency.

Mayfield has only connected on 13 of those throws, ranking 23rd in the NFL. His adjusted completion percentage on deep throws (meaning he gets credit for receiver drops) is dead-last in the league, almost a full nine points behind the next-closest passer. Therefore, I have no faith the Bucs will be able to capitalize on a defense that can give up game-changing plays.

On the other end of the game, the Bucs defense is likely to stymie the Packers run game, but Tampa Bay is almost as likely as the Packers to give up explosives. In an otherwise solid defensive showing, the Bucs allowed Falcons’ receiver Drake London to beat them for six catches of 20+ yards last week.

Green Bay sports a bevy of good young receivers in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. Three of the four are currently listed on the Packers injury report, so it bears watching, but if most are good to go, it is likely the Bucs defense could bust some coverages leading to big plays.

Bottom line is, the team that wins the explosives battle is likely to win the football contest. And I believe that team will be the Pack.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Packers 30, Bucs 26
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Adam Slivon: It Will Be Close, But Bucs Fall Short In Frozen Tundra

Looking at this week’s Bucs-Packers game up at Lambeau Field, something working in Tampa Bay’s favor is that it will not be as cold as it could be in mid-December, with the high temperature expected to be above freezing. For a Green Bay team that is 16-1 in December under Matt LaFleur, that is going to be a more evening factor.

Packers QB Jordan Love and HC Matt LaFleur – Photo by: USA Today

This week’s matchup will also be a lot closer thanks to the injury statuses of both teams. The Packers are banged up on both sides of the ball with some key playmakers questionable to play. The Bucs are in a better position but still need guys like Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, and Jamel Dean to suit up to have a fighting chance.

On offense, the Bucs will need to continue their recent stretch of solid performances on the ground. The Packers’ run defense has allowed 141.8 yards a game on 4.6 yards per carry. This sets up as another big game for Rachaad White, and the team will need to rely on him if the offense wants to get into a rhythm.

Baker Mayfield will also need to show improvement, as while he has been able to guide the team to wins in consecutive weeks despite completing less than 50% of his passes, he has been less efficient throwing the football. Another factor is that Mayfield has struggled in consecutive seasons up in the frozen tundra, and he is hoping to reverse his fortunes this time around.

Defensively, that’s where things get more interesting. The Bucs are going up against another young quarterback in Jordan Love who has gone through some ups and downs but has looked better as of late guiding the team to big wins over the Lions and Chiefs in the past month. Love has been able to have success moving the offense working with some backup weapons, many of whom are rookies and unheralded players.

With this game being one with playoff implications, the Packers have done more with less and have shown improvement in recent weeks. If Tampa Bay wins, this would be their biggest statement win of the season and it would also get them back to .500. I see it coming down to the end, but the Packers will be looking to rebound from their Monday night loss and have looked more improved than the Bucs as of late.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Packers 23, Bucs 20
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 10-3