After their third straight win — a convincing 34-20 victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field — the Bucs return home in Week 16 for a huge in-state matchup on Christmas Eve. The 8-6 Jaguars are coming in looking to spoil the 7-7 Bucs’ three-game winning streak and their holiday, while the Bucs will be looking to send the Jaguars to a fourth straight loss ahead of Christmas.

These are two teams that appear headed in opposite directions, though both have a ton to play for as the regular season winds down. Tampa Bay is looking to stay hot and get one step closer to the playoffs, as a victory would get the team to 8-7 and nearly ensure a postseason berth with at least a split over the final two games.

New Orleans faces a tough game against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night and Atlanta has a difficult contest against Indianapolis. So, there is a chance that with losses by New Orleans and Atlanta, Tampa Bay could further separate itself in the NFC South race. There’s even a chance that the Bucs could set themselves up for a clinching scenario in Week 17 when the Saints come to town on New Year’s Eve.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville is trying to stop the bleeding as its three-game losing streak now has the team in a three-way tie for the AFC South lead. The Jaguars have the division lead via tiebreaker, but the Colts and Texans are right on their heels as both teams are also 8-6 with three games to play.

The Last Time…

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The last time these two teams met was Dec. 1, 2019, with the Bucs beating the Jaguars 28-11 in Jacksonville. In that game, Tampa Bay stormed out to a huge 22-0 lead early thanks to Nick Foles turnovers on three straight drives to start the game. The first was an interception by Devin White that eventually turned into a Peyton Barber touchdown run, then White recovered a sack-fumble forced by Shaq Barrett and returned it 14 yards for a touchdown.

After a two-point conversion put the Bucs up 15-0, Carl Nassib forced a sack-fumble that Ndamukong Suh recovered. That turnover turned into another Barber touchdown. Gardner Minshew eventually relieved Foles and looked to bring Jacksonville back, but it wasn’t to be. Tampa Bay won 28-11 to improve to 5-7 on the year, while Jacksonville sunk to 4-8.

The Jaguars lead the all-time series 4-3, though the Bucs are 2-1 in the series at home. The last time Tampa Bay hosted Jacksonville was in 2015, with Jameis Winston squaring off against Blake Bortles. Winston’s side won that one 38-31.

How The Bucs And Jaguars Are Trending

Seemingly out of nowhere, the Bucs have put together a run that has them primed for a third straight NFC South title and a fourth straight playoff appearances. With their first three-game winning streak since the end of the 2021 season, they’ve gotten back to .500 at 7-7 and have a 78% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times’ Playoff Simulator. 

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Saints and Falcons are still right on the Bucs’ tail, but as long as Todd Bowles’ team keeps winning, it will control its own destiny within the division. With three weeks to go, Tampa Bay is nearing another division title, the No. 4 seed in the NFC and the home playoff game that comes along with it. Of course, a loss on Sunday and wins by either of the other teams chasing would just as easily jeopardize the Bucs’ chances.

After Sunday’s Christmas Eve home game, the Bucs will have their home finale on New Year’s Eve against the Saints – a game that could ultimately decide the division. From there, Tampa Bay has its season finale in Charlotte against the 2-12 Panthers on the first weekend of 2024.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, find themselves badly needing a win. They were once 8-3 and riding high, but they’re currently winless in December. They lost a tough 34-31 overtime game to the Bengals to start the month, and franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence left that game with an injury. He’s come back to play in the last two games, but he hasn’t quite been himself.

Jacksonville lost 31-27 to Cleveland on the second weekend of December and most recently got blown out 23-7 by Baltimore on Sunday Night Football. That game saw Lawrence take a big hit late that landed him in concussion protocol, leaving his status for this game against the Bucs uncertain. The Jaguars once looked like runaway favorites in the AFC South and had an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC. Now, they’re fighting to hang onto the division lead.

Jacksonville’s final two games after the visit to Tampa are favorable, however. Doug Pederson’s team has the two-win Panthers at home on New Year’s Eve before closing out the season against the Titans. Having two manageable games after this one helps, but this is still a big one as the Jags try to hold off the Colts and Texans for a second straight division title.

Here’s how the Bucs and Jaguars stack up heading into Week 16:

Bucs Offense: 20th in scoring offense (21.1 PPG), 23rd in total offense (314.9 yards per game), 19th in passing offense (224.3 yards per game), 29th in rushing offense (90.6 yards per game)

Jaguars Offense: T-10th in scoring offense (22.8 PPG), 12th in total offense (342.0 yards per game), 9th in passing offense (244.0 yards per game), 26th in rushing offense (98.0 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: 13th in scoring defense (20.7 points allowed per game), 26th in total defense (359.9 yards allowed per game), 31st in passing defense (263.9 yards allowed per game), 9th in rushing defense (96.0 yards allowed per game)

Jaguars Defense: 21st in scoring defense (22.4 points allowed per game), 27th in total defense (360.1 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (256.6 yards allowed per game), 12th in rushing defense (103.6 yards allowed per game)

As of Tuesday night, this game was listed as a Pick ‘Em, with an Over/Under set at 43 points (per mybookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Jaguars Matchup?

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence Photo by: USA Today

One of the biggest keys of this game is the health of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. It’s very difficult for a player to clear concussion protocol in one week, so the 2021 No. 1 overall pick may face long odds to play this Sunday against the Bucs. His practice status on Wednesday and throughout the rest of the week will be worth watching, as this is a completely different game if he’s not able to go. C.J. Beathard would start in his place if he doesn’t play.

At the same time, if Lawrence does manage to clear concussion protocol, how he’s progressed from the ankle injury he suffered at the beginning of this month will also have an impact on this game. Since that injury, he has played two games and completed 60% of his passes for 521 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost two fumbles against the Ravens last week. If Lawrence’s ankle is limiting him, it may leave him vulnerable to a Bucs pass rush that badly needs to get it together down the stretch.

Of course, if Lawrence doesn’t play and it’s Beathard under center for Jacksonville, this game becomes one that favors Tampa Bay. Now, Todd Bowles‘ Bucs defenses don’t have the best track record with backup quarterbacks, so it’s not as if his team will absolutely cruise if it’s Beathard in the game. With that said, Beathard is 2-10 as a starter in his career and has a career stat line that includes a 59.5% completion percentage, 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. If he’s starting this game, the Bucs need to take advantage of that and have the type of day they had against Will Levis and the Titans back in November.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

The other big decider in this matchup is on the Bucs’ side of things, and that’s Dave Canales‘ offense. If Baker Mayfield and that unit keep humming and building on the success of the last two weeks – which have seen them score 29 and 34 points – it may not matter who starts under center for Jacksonville.

Mayfield was lights-out against Green Bay in Week 15, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns on his way to becoming the first visiting quarterback ever to finish with a perfect 158.3 passer rating at Lambeau Field. And that was without a monster day from Mike Evans, who had a modest four catches for 57 yards, though he did catch his 11th touchdown of the year.

If Mayfield can keep his connection with Evans going while also getting more out of Chris Godwin after a season-best game from him last week, the Bucs’ passing attack may be in for a big day against the Jaguars’ 29th-ranked pass defense. More snaps for David Moore as the team’s No. 3 wide receiver may be in order, too, and it would be nice to see Trey Palmer get back in the mix.

Of course, the X-Factor of this offense in recent weeks has been the dual-threat Rachaad White. The second-year running back is third among NFL running backs in all-purpose yards and has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in four straight games. He’s truly getting it done both as a runner and as a pass-catcher, as he’s nearing 1,000 yards rushing for the year in addition to having back-to-back games with touchdown catches of 25-plus yards.

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

If White continues to fuel the offense and Mayfield, Evans, Godwin and the rest of the pass-catching weapons on offense keep clicking, Tampa Bay’s offense may really hit its stride at the perfect time in the season.

Jacksonville is a bottom-five defense in the NFL in terms of team sacks, which could be an opportunity for the Tampa Bay offensive line to assert itself and open things up for Mayfield and Co. That unit will be looking to bounce back from a game in which Mayfield was sacked five times.

Defensively, the Bucs will have a three-headed monster to deal with in the passing game regardless of who plays quarterback for the Jaguars. Tampa Bay’s pass defense has been awful in 2023, and on Sunday it’ll be dealing with Calvin Ridley (60 catches, 781 yards, five touchdowns), tight end Evan Engram (88 catches, 729 yards, three touchdowns) and running back Travis Etienne Jr. (48 catches, 411 yards, one touchdown. Granted, it’s a bit of a different three-headed monster without leading receiver Christian Kirk (57 catches, 787 yards, three touchdowns), who is on injured reserve. But it’s a formidable passing attack nonetheless.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield Photo by: USA Today

There’s no one other Buc who deserves to be talked about more after last week than Baker Mayfield. The Tampa Bay quarterback had his best game of the season, and it came when the team needed it most. His four touchdowns went to four different receivers – Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Ko Kieft and David Moore. It was a nice rebound game for Mayfield after he was sloppy in a last-minute win against the Falcons a week earlier. If he can keep it going and play his best football over the next few weeks, the Bucs will be where they want to be – in the playoffs with a Wild Card matchup at home.

On the Buccaneer defense, a lot of eyes will continue to be fixed on linebacker K.J. Britt. With Devin White’s status up in the air (at best), look for Britt to keep playing alongside Lavonte David in the middle of the defense. He’s been excellent over the last two weeks and nearly had his first career sack in the win over Green Bay. If he keeps playing at a high level, there’s really no reason for Todd Bowles to go back to White, who doesn’t have a future in red, white and pewter.

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. Photo by: USA Today

For Jacksonville, the uncertainty at quarterback makes Travis Etienne Jr. the player to watch on offense. He has been awesome this year, rushing for 837 yards and nine touchdowns on 229 carries (3.7 avg). He also has 48 catches on 62 targets for 411 yards and another score. He’s really been a workhorse for the Jaguars this year and a lot will be asked of him on Sunday, especially if Trevor Lawrence is out or limited.

The Jags defense is led by Josh Allen, who is as strong of a pass rusher as there is. Jacksonville isn’t a team with a lot of sacks this season, totaling just 30 so far in 14 games. But Allen has 13.5 of those and is by far the defense’s leading sacker. Travon Walker is next with six quarterback captures. Allen can be extremely disruptive, but if Tampa Bay can find a way to slow him down, it’ll neutralize the Jacksonville pass rush in a big way given that there hasn’t been a ton of production behind him.

Bucs vs. Jaguars Game Information

When: Sunday, December 24
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS – Kevin Harlan (Play by Play), Trent Green (Analyst), Melanie Collins (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)