With their four-game winning streak to start December, the Bucs put themselves in great position to win the NFC South. In fact, after their 30-12 win over the Jaguars in Week 16, they only needed to win one of their final two games—beating either the Saints or Panthers—to clinch a third straight division title.

Bucs WRs Trey Palmer, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs were looking to take care of business at home in Week 17 as they hosted the Saints on New Year’s Eve. A victory would’ve finished off the division race, clinched a winning season for Todd Bowles and Co. and given the team a chance to complete a 10-win regular season next week. Instead, Tampa Bay played one of its worst games of the year.

The Bucs trailed 17-0 at halftime and had just 44 yards of offense at halftime while allowing the Saints to convert six of their nine third-down attempts. It didn’t get much better for Tampa Bay, which was down 20-0 entering the fourth quarter. A couple of late touchdowns were, well, too late as the Bucs failed to cash in on the chance to win the division at home.

Elsewhere in the NFC South, the Falcons failed to take advantage of the Bucs’ loss. They played through snow in Chicago, ultimately losing 37-17 to the Bears. Taylor Heinicke threw three interceptions while Atlanta’s defense allowed 192 rushing yards and a 159-yard day from wide receiver D.J. Moore. Justin Fields dominated Arthur Smith’s defense, moving Smith closer to the hot seat than the playoff picture.

So, in the end, it was only the Saints who helped themselves in the NFC South race on the final day of 2023. That sets up a winner-take-all Week 18 scenario, as the race for the division title and the NFC’s No. 4 seed will come down to the very end.

Updated NFC South Standings After Week 17:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 (3-2 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints: 8-8 (3-2 in the NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons: 7-9 (3-2 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers: 2-14 (1-4 in the NFC South)

NFC South Race Comes Down To Week 18 For Bucs, Saints And Falcons

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs are still in the driver’s seat for the NFC South championship, as they can clinch it with a victory over the 2-14 Panthers next week. If they get the job done, Week 17’s dud won’t have much of a lasting effect. Tampa Bay will finish 9-8 with a 4-2 record within the division, earning the No. 4 seed in the NFC and a home playoff game against the NFC East runner-up, whether that’s the Cowboys or Eagles.

But Week 17 will go down as the missed opportunity of a lifetime for Todd Bowles’ team if it can’t beat Carolina next weekend. Because with a Bucs loss in Week 18, the door is wide open for the Saints or Falcons to steal the division on the final day of the regular season.

If the Bucs lose that game to the Panthers, then the winner of the Saints-Falcons game in New Orleans will win the NFC South, ending Tampa Bay’s reign atop the division.

“Obviously, we know we have to win next week. We weren’t trying to bring it to next week. Obviously, we wanted to win the one today,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said after Sunday’s loss to the Saints. “We didn’t win the one today. We have to come back on Tuesday and we have to be really focused. We’ve got to be ready and we have to execute. [It] doesn’t matter who we played today — a good team, a bad team, a college team, a high school team — we wouldn’t have won the game.”

Tampa Bay will have to bring it next weekend in Carolina, as a loss is almost sure to end the team’s season. The Bucs have the narrowest of chances to make the playoffs without winning the NFC South, as ESPN Stats & Info has them with a 0.1% of earning a Wild Card spot at 8-9. They have wins over the Vikings and Packers under their belts, but the Rams and Seahawks look to be in better positions within the NFC Wild Card race.