Despite a stunning, 23-13 loss to the New Orleans Saints that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated, nothing changed with the Bucs’ draft order as the team’s four-game winning streak was snapped. Tampa Bay’s record fell to 8-8, but the Bucs maintained their grasp the 19th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after Week 17, according to Tankathon.com.

All playoff teams pick 19th and later, and Tampa Bay and Seattle are tied with 8-8. Meanwhile Indianapolis, Jacksonville and the L.A. Rams all improved to 9-7 are are currently Wild Card playoff round teams with Buffalo in that grouping as well with a 10-6 record. But the Bucs’ have a weakest strength of schedule at .485, which is why they would pick 19th if the NFL Draft started today, and the Seahawks would pick 20th with a .515 strength of schedule.

Yet Tampa Bay’s draft standing can change dramatically next week depending on what happens in Carolina in the 2023 regular season finale. A victory over the Panthers would improve the team’s record to 9-8 and clinch a third straight NFC South division title. Yet a loss would mean the Bucs would finish 8-9 for a second straight year and likely out of the playoffs.

A defeat in Carolina would mean the winner of the Falcons at Saints game would win the NFC South, and Tampa Bay would need a lot of help to secure the final Wild Card playoff spot in the NFC. ESPN puts the Bucs’ odds at making the playoffs as a Wild Card at 1% with an 8-9 finish.

A loss would also cause the Bucs to move up considerably in the 2024 NFL Draft. An 8-9 Tampa Bay team could pick as high as No. 13, while a 9-8 finish could prompt a slide down to No. 21 – depending on what happens around the rest of the league in Week 18.

The 19th overall pick isn’t a bad spot to be in, as the Bucs made the playoffs last year as the lowest-seeded division winner with the worst record (8-9) in the Wild Card playoff round and still picked defensive tackle Calijah Kancey at No. 19. Kancey has star potential as he leads all rookies with 10 tackles for loss this year, in addition to four sacks despite missing parts or all of four games this year due to injury.

Tampa Bay currently has a plethora of personnel needs that could be addressed in the 2024 NFL Draft, possibly at quarterback if the Bucs elect not to re-sign starter Baker Mayfield, who signed a one-year, $4 million deal last offseason. Mayfield has played well for the Bucs, but if there is a head coaching change in the offseason a new coach could want to draft a quarterback in the first round.

This year’s draft will feature a “mega-QB draft class,” according to Pro Football Focus’ Trevor Sikkema in an interview with Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds. As many as five quarterbacks could get drafted in the first round, possibly including USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

The Bucs have drafted two quarterbacks in the first round in the last 15 years – Josh Freeman in 2009 with the 17th overall pick and Jameis Winston in 2015 with the first overall pick.

Bucs Have Pressing Needs At Other Positions

Florida State WR Keon Coleman – Photo by: USA Today

Aside from quarterback, Tampa Bay has other big needs it must address either in free agency or in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Bucs could use a starting-caliber wide receiver either to replace Mike Evans if the legendary wideout is not re-signed in March, or to serve as a better No. 3 receiver next year. This year’s draft class is flush at the receiver position with Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., Washington’s Rome Odunze, LSU’s Malik Nabers and Florida State’s Keon Coleman expected to be drafted high in the first round.

Tampa Bay could also use an upgrade at tight end where Cade Otton, a fourth-round pick in 2022, has struggled as an inline blocker and does not get many yards after catch as a receiver. The 2024 draft class is rather weak at tight end with only Georgia’s Brock Bowers regarded as a first-round pick.

The Bucs could also use a starting guard to replace Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinnie, as well as a starting center to upgrade over Robert Hainsey. But there isn’t a first-round caliber interior offensive lineman in this year’s draft class other than Duke offensive tackle Graham Barton, who could move inside to guard at the next level.

Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay could use a pass-rushing upgrade over Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and a possible replacement for 31-year old Shaq Barrett if he becomes a salary cap casualty as expected next offseason. Tampa Bay is high on YaYa Diaby, a third-round pick last April, but will need another starting-caliber edge rusher.

There is a decent crop of edge rushers in this year’s draft class led by UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, Penn State’s Chop Robinson, Florida State’s Jared Verse, Alabama’s Dallas Turner and Washington’s Bralen Trice – all of whom are expected to be first-rounders.

The Bucs might also need a starting inside linebacker or two as both Devin White and Lavonte David, who turns 34 in January, are both slated for free agency. White will not be re-signed, and the Bucs will wait and see what kind of market there is for David, who is the team’s leading tackler and is having a fine season.

SirVocea Dennis, a fifth-round pick this past April, may or may not be a candidate to start, but there is not a first-round-caliber inside linebacker in this year’s draft class, and the position is considered to be mediocre in terms of overall talent and depth.

It’s the same at safety where the Bucs could use another starter to play next to free-agent-to-be Antoine Winfield Jr., who is expected to be re-signed by the team. Free agent Ryan Neal has been a disappointment and won’t be back in 2024. The 2024 draft class is deep at safety, but lacks high-end talent. Miami’s Kamren Kinchens and Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin are both considered to be the best of the bunch and could be drafted at the end of the first round.