Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs fell to 8-8 following an embarrassing 23-13 loss at home against the New Orleans Saints in which Tampa Bay fell behind 20-0 in the third quarter. After beating the Falcons, 9-7, three weeks ago and narrowly losing to the Packers, 33-30, the previous week, the Panthers got shellacked on the road at Jacksonville, 26-0. At 2-14, Carolina won’t have anything to play for but pride in its season finale at home.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What’s at stake for the Bucs? Everything. Because of last week’s loss to the Saints, it’s now “win or go home” for the Bucs. A victory in Carolina propels the team to 9-8 and a third straight NFC South title. A loss means a second straight year with an 8-9 record, but no playoffs for Tampa Bay. And two straight losses and an 8-9 finish could spell doom for Todd Bowles as the team’s head coach.

Bowles had the Bucs on the brink of winning the division last week after four consecutive victories turned a dismal 4-7 start into a temporary winning record at 8-7. But the fact that the Bucs came out flat in their biggest game of the year is troublesome, so will Tampa Bay come out playing tight in Carolina as a result? Or will Bowles’ calm demeanor help his team settle down and focus on the task at hand?

The Bucs have not been in this situation as a franchise in some time. Certainly not with any of the current players or coaching staff. A win means a home playoff game, but a loss could mean a new coaching staff and a host of changes that would come with that.

What’s At Stake For The Panthers

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The Panthers are dealing with the distraction of owner David Tepper throwing a drink on a Jaguars fan from his luxury suite during last week’s game. Not that the Carolina players are affected much by that, but Tepper is a hot-tempered mercurial owner who fired Frank Reich midway through his first season as head coach. The franchise just doesn’t know what to expect from this loose cannon millionaire and how he will react to a season-ending loss, especially at home.

Have the Panthers already checked out mentally this season after a frustrating 26-0 loss at Jacksonville? Or will they rebound from the humiliating defeat and come out swinging in their final game of the 2023 season, which will be at home?

Carolina will have a new head coach this year, so the players who are locked in will be playing for the jobs. That could spur some to make a good, final impression in Week 18 and give the Bucs all they can handle before the end of the 2023 regular season.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay lost to New Orleans due to two things. First, the Bucs came out flat and fell behind 7-0 after the Saints’ first drive. The team must come out focused and ready to play from the start and set the tone and tempo. Getting an early lead in Carolina would go a long way toward victory. But even if the Bucs do fall behind early, they must respond immediately and match the Panthers score for score in the first quarter.

Secondly, Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle 4-0 to New Orleans last week. Most teams cannot have such a turnover deficit and expect to win, but the Bucs just don’t have any margin for error with their current roster and need to do a better job protecting the football. Tampa Bay also needs to record some takeaways on defense to prevail in Carolina.

The turnover battle was tied at 1-1 the last time these two teams played, and that was a big reason why the Bucs had a narrow, 21-18 win over the Panthers. Unless the Bucs increase that turnover margin in their favor, this game will likely be a close contest in Carolina. Pressuring rookie quarterback Bryce Young will be paramount to victory, as he was nearly sacked by defensive tackle Calijah Kancey before throwing a late interception to Antoine Winfield Jr. in the fourth quarter.

The Panthers Win If…

Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Establishing the run kept the Panthers in the game against the Bucs the last time these two teams met in Week 9. Carolina out-gained Tampa Bay 133-128 on the ground and Chuba Hubbard had a 100-yard day and scored two touchdowns. The Bucs were without starting inside linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White, and perhaps that was the reason why.

Quarterback Bryce Young was sacked four times by the Bucs defense in the last meeting and was also sacked six times last week. Carolina must do a better job of protecting the team’s first-round pick and giving Young time to throw. Adam Thielen, the team’s leading receiver, was held in check in Tampa Bay with just three catches for 25 yards in Week 9. But Jonathan Mingo had six catches for 69 yards and D.J. Chark had three receptions for 56 yards and must have another productive game against the Bucs secondary – this time without Mingo, as the talented rookie is now on injured reserve.

On defense, pressuring Baker Mayfield is a must. When rattled and flustered in the pocket, Mayfield will run into sacks and throw interceptions. He’s done a very good job of protecting the ball all year, but had two interceptions in last week’s loss to the Saints. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown and edge rusher Brian Burns need to have big games against the Bucs offensive line.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Panthers Secondary

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Panthers S Xavier Woods – Photo by: USA Today

Evans has had more success against the Panthers than any other team in the NFL with 99 career receptions for 1,458 yards (14.7 avg.) and 11 touchdowns. The last time these two teams met, it was Evans’ career-long 77-yard catch-and-run that ignited the Bucs offense and led the team to victory in the second half. Evans finished the game with seven catches for 162 yards (23.1 avg.) and that big touchdown.

The previous time Evans played the Panthers, he torched their secondary for 10 catches for 207 yards (20 avg.) and three touchdowns in helping the Bucs clinch the NFC South title in Week 17 in 2022. Evans will likely need another big game against Carolina for Tampa Bay to clinch another division title.

Carolina only has eight interceptions this season, with just five coming from the secondary. One of those picks came from safety Xavier Woods against Evans in Week 9. In fact, only one Panthers cornerback, Troy Hill, has an interception this year. Carolina must not only do a better job of defending Evans on Sunday, but getting another interception or two would go a long way toward victory.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs ILBs Devin White and Lavonte David vs. Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

Bucs LBs Devin White and Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Hubbard has had exactly one 100-yard rushing game this season, and that came a month ago at Tampa Bay when he ran for 104 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Part of the reason why he might have had that level of success was due to the fact that the Bucs were playing without starting inside linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White. That won’t be the case this time around.

K.J. Britt and J.J. Russell started the Week 9 game against Carolina, but Britt suffered a back injury and only played the first seven snaps. Russell and safety Ryan Neal served as the team’s linebackers the rest of the way and did enough to get the victory. But if Carolina wants to pull off the upset, it must establish the ground game like it did in Tampa Bay to create balance on offense and take some of the pressure off rookie quarterback Bryce Young.

Stopping the run and making the Panthers offense one-dimensional will be paramount for the Bucs’ success in Carolina. Even when Tampa Bay has beaten Carolina in recent years the games have been close, and that could be the case again on Sunday in the regular season finale. The only chance the Bucs have at securing a blowout win is to stop Hubbard and the Panthers’ ground game before it starts.