For the third time in four seasons, the Bucs find themselves still alive in the NFC Divisional Round. With their 32-9 win over the Eagles in the Wild Card Round, they booked a trip to Detroit to face the NFC North champion Lions this Sunday afternoon.

The Lions got to the second round of the playoffs with a 24-23 victory over the Rams last Sunday. It was their first playoff win since the 1991 postseason, and now they’ll be looking for a second straight.

The winner of Sunday’s game at Ford Field will continue on into the NFC Championship Game next weekend. They’ll face the winner of Saturday night’s 49ers-Packers game. If San Francisco wins, it’ll host the winner of the Tampa Bay-Detroit game. If Green Bay wins, it’ll travel to the winner of the Tampa Bay-Detroit game.

The Last Time…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

This is another rematch for the Bucs in this year’s playoffs. After avenging their Week 3 loss to the Eagles in the first round, they’ll get a chance to avenge a Week 6 loss to the Lions in the second round.

Detroit visited Raymond James Stadium back in October and despite a slow start, cruised to a 20-6 win. It spoiled the Bucs’ first creamsicle game in more than a decade, as Jared Goff threw for two touchdowns and the Tampa Bay offense was held to a season-low six points.

Third downs were a problem in that game for the Bucs, as they went just 2-of-12 while allowing the Lions to finish 9-of-16. That led to a 13-minute advantage in time of possession for Dan Campbell’s team.

The Lions lead the all-time series between the two teams 32-28, though the Bucs have a 5-2 advantage at Ford Field and a 1-0 lead in the playoffs. Tampa Bay beat Detroit 2010 in the Wild Card Round of the 1997 playoffs before losing to the Packers in the Divisional Round the following week.

How The Bucs And Lions Are Trending

Even with a 23-13 loss to the Saints in Week 17 and an unconvincing 9-0 win over the Panthers in Week 18, the Bucs may very well be one of the hottest teams left in the playoffs right now. They’ve won six of their last seven games dating back to the beginning of December and have been adopting both the playoff and underdog mentalities that could just spark a magical run in this postseason.

Tampa Bay is more or less playing with house money as it heads to Detroit this weekend. After all, Todd Bowles’ team has been counted out time and again this season. It even started before the season, really. With the dead cap money they decided to eat this year and the fact that they were recovering from the retirement of Tom Brady, the Bucs weren’t picked to go anywhere this season. They weren’t favorites to three-peat as NFC South champions, even with it being a seemingly wide-open race given the state of the rest of the teams. Even at 3-1, Tampa Bay was just a nice early-season story as Baker Mayfield became a national talking point again.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

But after losing six of their next seven, the Bucs were 4-7 and had gone back to being nobodies in the eyes of the national media. It looked like they’d be drafting inside the top 10 of the 2024 Draft and possibly even moving on from Bowles and Mayfield in the offseason. They’ve since rattled off six wins in seven games — with the latest being a 32-9 domination of the defending NFC champion Eagles — to count themselves as one of the eight teams still standing and in contention for the Lombardi Trophy.

While the Bucs’ stock has only just risen in the last month and a half, the Lions’ has been rising and rising since their season-opening win over the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in September. After narrowly missing the playoffs at 9-8 last year, Detroit won 12 games for just the second time in its history this year and is in the midst of a dream season. Dan Campbell’s team won the NFC North for the first time ever and that was only the start.

Last Sunday, Ford Field was rocking as the Lions won their first playoff game since the 1991 playoffs. They beat the Cowboys that year before being eliminated the next week by Washington. From there, they were first-round exits in 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2011, 2014 and 2016. Their 24-23 win over the Rams had fans in tears and because of the No. 2 seed Cowboys going down the following day at the hands of the No. 7 seed Packers, Detroit gets another home playoff game — one that it should’ve gotten anyway if not for the inept officiating at the end of its Week 17 loss to Dallas.

This type of run that the Lions are on can feel like a now-or-never scenario, as so much has to go right not only to make the playoffs but to make a deep run. The Eagles are a prime example of that, as they went from appearing in last year’s Super Bowl and starting 10-1 this year before collapsing down the stretch and exiting in the first round at the hands of the 9-8 Bucs. Detroit will be looking at this as a run of destiny, especially with both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn being potential head coaching candidates elsewhere.

The Bucs, on the other hand, will looking to spoil the fun in the Motor City and create their own run of destiny.

Here’s how the Bucs and Lions stack up by numbers in the regular season:

Bucs Offense: 20th in scoring offense (20.5 PPG), 23rd in total offense (313.0 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (224.2 yards per game), 32nd in rushing offense (88.8 yards per game)

Lions Offense: 5th in scoring offense (27.1 PPG), 3rd  in total offense (394.8 yards per game), 2nd in passing offense (258.9 yards per game), 5th in rushing offense (135.9 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: T-6th in scoring defense (19.1 points allowed per game), 23rd in total defense (344.2 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (248.9 yards allowed per game), 5th in rushing defense (95.3 yards allowed per game)

Lions Defense: 23rd in scoring defense (23.2 points allowed per game), 19th in total defense (336.1 yards allowed per game), 27th in passing defense (247.4 yards allowed per game), 2nd in rushing defense (88.8 yards allowed per game)

As of Wednesday night, the Lions were 6.5-point home favorites, with an Over/Under set at 48.5 points (per MyBookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Lions Matchup?

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown – Photo by: USA Today

This is an interesting matchup from a variety of standpoints. Big plays should be plentiful, as the Bucs and Lions both have a plethora of weapons in the passing game. Amon’Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta will all threaten the Bucs’ 29th-ranked pass defense, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer and perhaps Cade Otton — fresh off a career game against Philadelphia — will likely find some wins against the Lions’ 27th-ranked pass defense.

It’s all about Detroit’s Jared Goff and Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield — two former No. 1 overall picks — withstanding pressure and finding the open guys down the field. Goff does a good job of getting the ball out quickly, and that’s something Mayfield will need to do on Sunday to avoid the likes of Aidan Hutchinson (11.5 sacks) and Alim McNeill (5 sacks). Perhaps Rachaad White will have a lot of work to do as an outlet option for Mayfield. White is one of the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL and has really come on strong since the first time these two teams met.

If White can get going in the short passing game and even find some early success on the ground against Detroit’s second-ranked run defense, it would bode well for the balance that Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales is always striving for. Canales called one of his best games of the season in the Wild Card win over the Eagles and will need a similar day against the Lions. Aaron Glenn‘s defense is susceptible to big plays, so it’s up to Canales and Mayfield to find those plays and take advantage of them.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

On the other side of the ball, Todd Bowles will need to craft another masterful game plan like the one he put together for the first-round win over the Eagles. Bowles got creative with his defensive fronts and used K.J. Britt and Zyon McCollum in advantageous ways to deal with the Philly offense. The run defense shut down the Eagles’ ground game and doing so again against the Lions is paramount. At the same time, Goff has proven capable of beating the Bucs without a rushing attack, as he just did it in October.

Limiting big plays completely might be an impossible ask, but for this secondary, it’s about making sure those big plays aren’t long touchdowns. Tampa Bay had the third-best red zone defense in the NFL this year and holding Detroit to field goals instead of touchdowns might be the recipe for success. That’s always the case anyway, but the Lions went through a late-season kicking change, so Michael Badgley only has five field goal attempts in a Lions uniform this year. He’s 5-for-5 and just made a key 54-yard field goal in last week’s game.

Third downs are one final factor that Tampa Bay will have to improve upon from its last meeting with Detroit. There can’t be a repeat of the 2-of-12 on offense and 9-of-16 on defense that we saw in Week 6. The lack of a run game on offense and the inability to get off the field on third downs defensively killed the Bucs in that game. It robbed the offense of a chance to find any kind of rhythm, as it led to a 13-minute time of possession edge for the Lions. They were able to control the game and grind it out.

If the Bucs can flip the script by running the ball and keeping drives alive on offense while making stops on third down defensively, it might just give them a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter. On the road in the playoffs, that’s all you can ask for.

Key Players to Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

If the Bucs get another huge performance from Baker Mayfield on Sunday, it’ll go a long way toward their chances of winning and advancing to the NFC Championship Game. Mayfield dominated the Eagles on Monday night, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns. He would’ve had an even bigger day if not for some drops by Mike Evans, Cade Otton, Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds. The 28-year-old quarterback needs a better game against the Lions this time around, as he struggled back in the Week 6 loss.

Lavonte David just doesn’t seem to be aging at all, does he? The 33-year-old is still playing like he’s 23, and he had another fantastic showing against the Eagles on Monday night. The perennially underrated linebacker was once again overlooked on Pro Bowl and All-Pro ballots this year despite a season that saw him tally 134 tackles (86 solo), 4.5 sacks, 17 tackles for loss, five passes defensed and a forced fumble in 15 games. David will be key in shutting down the Lions’ fifth-ranked rushing offense, especially if he can get to runners behind the line of scrimmage with regularity.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs Photo by: USA Today

The Lions were questioned and criticized for spending a first-round pick on running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the 2023 Draft. That was more of the fact that they drafted a running back that early, though, not because of who Gibbs is as a player. The former Alabama back has paid off that decision with a phenomenal rookie year, at least.

He posted 945 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Through the air, he caught 52 passes for 316 yards and another score. Gibbs has blazing speed and can be a true problem, especially in conjunction with 1,000-yard rusher David Montgomery.

Veteran linebacker Alex Anzalone had a very good 2023 season, leading the Lions defense with 129 tackles (83 solo), three sacks, seven tackles for loss, six passes defensed and a fumble recovery. He and fellow linebackers Jack Campbell and Derrick Barnes will be crucial in trying to stop the Bucs’ ground game.

Back in Week 6, Tampa Bay struggled to run the ball as Anzalone finished with a team-high nine tackles (seven solo), including a tackle for loss. He also chipped in two passes defensed in the 20-6 win. Tampa Bay may try to get Rachaad White involved in the passing game, though Anzalone posted a 67.0 coverage grade this year (per PFF), the fifth-best mark on the Detroit defense.

Bucs at Lions Game Information

When: Sunday, January 21
Where: Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBC – Mike Tirico (Play by Play), Cris Collinsworth (Analyst), Kaylee Hartung & Melis (Reporters), Terry McAulay (Rules Analyst)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martin Gramática (Color)