While I hate that the Bucs season is over (covering the team as they play the actual football games is the best), there is something fun about just after the season ends that I get enjoyment out of. As Pewter Report’s salary cap analyst, for a short period of time just after the season, and then again as the new league year starts, I become the most popular guy around!

Now that the Bucs have been eliminated from the playoffs fans naturally begin to think how they can repeat – and improve upon – their 2023 results. That of course leads to roster construction and how much room the Bucs have to re-sign key players and add potential free agents to shore up holes on the roster. So, without further ado, let’s get into where the Bucs are, and where they can go with their salary cap.

Bucs 2024 Salary Cap Space At The Moment

Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap noted that the Bucs will have about $38 million in cap space after void years on expiring deals and NLTBE (not likely to be earned) bonuses are accounted for.

The #Bucs will have about $38M in cap room next year. Big decision on the QB position upcoming

— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) January 21, 2024

That’s with 35 players on the roster. So that $38 million can’t just be utilized to bring in high-ticket players. Based on their current draft picks the Bucs will need about $8.7 million for their draft picks and another $4-5 million for in-season moves. Call it $13 million and six roster spots filled. That leaves the team with $25 million to fill 12 more spots.

Key Free Agents To Be Retained

The Bucs will want to start by retaining key members of their 2023 roster to help keep the foundation of their success this year intact. There are five players who most qualify in this category: wide receiver Mike Evans, free safety Antoine Winfield, inside linebacker Lavonte David, kicker Chase McLaughlin and quarterback Baker Mayfield. Each of these players’ performance this year warrants a raise in the “Average Per Year” cost of their contracts from their current deals.

FS Antoine Winfield Jr.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I wrote about Winfield’s new deal earlier in the season. His cost has only gone up from then. Winfield has a legitimate opportunity to be the first safety to earn $20 million per year. But the most likely option is that the Bucs look to save a bit off of his true value and use the franchise tag on their All-Pro safety. That would retain Winfield for one year at a projected $17.22 million cap hit.

WR Mike Evans

Evans wanted a new deal prior to the 2023 season. The Bucs opted to hold off and Evans proceeded to have his best season in years. With 79 catches, over 1,200 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns, he legitimately raised his value and should now secure a new deal somewhere in the neighborhood of three years and $75 million.

While his APY (average per year) for that deal would be $25 million, the initial cap hit could come in as low as $15 million for the 2024 season on a back-loaded deal.

LB Lavonte David

The energizer bunny of the Bucs defense (he keeps going and going and going…) is still playing at an extremely high level. I am sure Jason Licht, Todd Bowles and the rest of the Bucs organization would welcome him back with open arms.

David took a below-market deal in 2023 while the team was cap-strapped. Officially the deal was for one year and $4 million. But when you peel back the curtain you see the Bucs gave him several bonus opportunities that really made it a $7 million pact. They laid the contract out with NLTBE (not likely to be earned) incentives that would impact the 2024 salary cap rather than the team’s tight 2023 cap. I would expect the two sides to come to terms on a similar number in 2024 but with the Bucs guaranteeing the full amount. That would be a $7 million cap charge.

K Chase McLaughlin

McLaughlin set Bucs records with his distance and accuracy in 2024. His ability to hit from 50+ gave the offense a dynamic missing in 2023. He has more than earned a deal similar to what the Bucs offered former kicker Ryan Succop in 2021 but adjusted for cap inflation. That would be around three years and $15 million.

At $5 million per year McLaughlin would rank just outside the Top 5 among all kickers. His year one cap hit in that scenario should come in around $3.5 million.

QB Baker Mayfield

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield accomplished his goal of using a one-year, “prove-it” deal to show he is still a capable starter in the NFL and has set himself up for a solid follow-up contract. That deal will garner him a solid pay day. My research leads me to believe Mayfield’s deal will be a direct descendant of the contract Teddy Bridgewater signed with the Panther in 2020. That deal was for three years and $63 million. Factoring in cap inflation, it represented the model for the contract the Seahawks gave Geno Smith last year (3-years, $75 million).

With the NFL salary cap projected to move from this year’s $224.8 million to around $242.5 million next year, another adjustment would put Mayfield at around three years and $82.5 million. That would allow Mayfield to get $32.5 million fully guaranteed money, and allow the team the flexibility to effectively go year-to-year with him. It could also structure to only count $12.5 million against the cap in 2024.

These five deals would require the team to have $55.22 million in cap space. In order to bring all of them back at these prices the team will need to free up space by making moves with players already under contract.

Likely Bucs Salary Cap Casualties

There are three players currently on the roster that have a good chance to be cut before the new league year starts on March 13. They are wide receiver Russell Gage, center Ryan Jensen and cornerback Carlton Davis III. Cutting Gage and Davis would free up roughly $12.75 million in cap space. Both Gage and Davis are oft-injured players and are overpaid as a result.

Jensen won’t be released (or more likely retire) until after June 1. The Bucs will have to carry his $5.977 million cap hit all the way until that date. Once they complete the transaction, they will be able to save $1.21 million on the 2024 salary cap while pushing an $11.8 million dead cap hit into 2025.

The total savings of these three moves comes to just about $14 million.

Two Additional Moves Possible

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Titans WR Chris Moore – Photo by: USA Today

Two key players that were a part of the Bucs’ 2020 Super Bowl team could be a part of these offseason moves. They are left tackle Tristan Wirfs and outside linebacker Shaq Barrett. And the considerations for these two players couldn’t be further apart.

Wirfs is currently set to play on his fifth-year option. That figure will count $18.244 million towards the salary cap. The Bucs could restructure that number and reduce it by $12,839,250.

But the more likely option is Tampa Bay and Wirfs come to terms on a long-term extension that will keep him in town for years to come. Wirfs is likely to reset the tackle market with a contract that should be for five years and over $130 million in new money. A deal like that would actually reduce his 2024 salary cap hit by $8.7 million as it would be back-loaded.

With the 31-year old Barrett, I detailed a while back that the Bucs may opt to take a large dead cap hit in order to cut him and save a $15 million option bonus. The move would take his $14,190,882 cap hit and actually increase it to $26,668,000 for him to not play for the team. Again, this would be a move the Glazers choose to do in order to save paying real cash and not a move to save salary cap accounting.

Possible Restructures

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

Cornerback Jamel Dean, nose tackle Vita Vea and wide receiver Chris Godwin are all on large veteran contracts that the Bucs could restructure in order to create additional cap space. The team does not need permission from the players to do simple restructures (moving cash payments forward while moving cap hits back to later years already a part of the contract). The max the team could save by maxing out those simple restructures would be another $33 million.

There is also the possibility of going to an oft-injured player like Dean and asking him to take a pay cut, or perhaps even do the same with Godwin in order to help the Bucs re-sign Mike Evans.

Dean has a $12 million base salary and a cap value of $14,666,353 in 2024, which is the fifth-most on the team. Godwin’s $18.5 million base salary in 2024 is the largest on the team and none of it is guaranteed. With prorated bonus money, Godwin has the team’s largest salary cap hit this year at $27.534 million.

Summary

Bucs assistant GM Mike Greenberg – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Doing a quick recap of where we are, the Bucs would have $16.78 million available to fill 10 more roster spots. This would allow the team to be strategic in finding a couple of mid-tier free agents to fill a couple of key spots (say left guard, center or strong safety) while finding players at or near league minimum to fill out the rest of the roster.

The Bucs’ cap situation isn’t as daunting as it was a year ago, but the team certainly doesn’t have unlimited funds and is unlikely to go after high-end external free agents. Yet consider that Tampa Bay will be able to re-sign Top 5 players at free safety and left tackle while also re-signing a premier wide receiver and the second-best quarterback on the market behind Kirk Cousins with enough left over to take some strategic shots at one to two positions the team thinks can pay dividends in 2024.

And remember there is more talent coming from the college ranks in April in the 2024 NFL Draft. That and re-signing the Bucs’ own star players this offseason will best put the team in position to defend its division crown for the fourth consecutive year.