Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. More Pressure, More Freedom For Baker Mayfield

My colleague Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times beat me to the punch in our post-press conference interview with Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield. Stroud asked Mayfield if the security of a new, three-year contract worth $100 million – with $50 million guaranteed – would put more pressure on the QB to perform, or does it provide him with the peace of mind to go play more freely in 2024?

That’s something I definitely wanted to know the answer to.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Scott Reynolds/PR

“You want to set your expectations even higher because you demand that of yourself, and obviously competing in this high-level business,” Mayfield said. “Obviously very happy with the financial aspect of it, but something we’re all striving to do is win a Super Bowl. That’s a big reason why guys didn’t test the open market.

“Guys came back here and realized the pieces that we have to continue to build on what we have, but improve that. You’re never satisfied with it. You’re always trying to be hungry. I think we have the right group to do that.”

So I think Mayfield’s answer to the question is “both.”

He feels some pressure to perform due to the trust that the team has put into him with the largest contract ever paid to a Bucs quarterback. Mayfield’s deal averages $33.3 million, while Tom Brady made $25 million per year during his three-year stint in Tampa Bay.

But Mayfield is no stranger to pressure. He typically thrives in pressure moments.

Last year, Mayfield bet on himself, signing a one-year, prove-it deal worth just $4 million plus incentives. If he succeeded, Mayfield’s career as a starter would be resuscitated. If he failed, he would likely join the ranks of former first-round picks like Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Mitch Trubisky as a backup QB for the rest of his career.

At the same time, Mayfield’s new deal should allow him to exhale and play more freely this season, and he and the team hope it could take his game to new heights. His three-year contract means Mayfield goes from being a hired gun in free agency last year to being the town marshal this season. He earned his badge last year by throwing for 4,000 yards for the first time and passing for 28 touchdowns, which was also a career high.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield capped off his resurgent season with a Pro Bowl Offensive MVP distinction, and before that, a 337-yard, three-touchdown performance in a 32-9 win over the Eagles in the Wild Card playoff game in Tampa Bay.

That playoff performance, coupled with a 381-yard, four-touchdown effort in a 34-20 win at Green Bay in Week 14, have set the standard for Mayfield’s level of play. He completed 22-of-28 passes (78.6%) against the Packers and earned a perfect QB rating of 158.3 for the first time in his career, in addition to NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Mayfield can’t be expected to do that on a weekly basis. But he needs to have about two to three more games like that in 2024 and in years to come. Perhaps more importantly, he needs to eliminate two to three clunkers that he had last year, notably against the Saints in Tampa Bay and both losses to the Lions – in the regular season and in the playoffs.

Mayfield had five interceptions in those three games combined.

He also had a pair of games against the Panthers and Falcons where he completed just 48.3% of his passes – yet the Bucs still won against lesser competition.

Part of the reason why Mayfield had so much success in Tampa Bay last year was doing a better job eliminating the turnovers that had plagued him to a degree in Cleveland. He made better decisions with the football and only had 10 interceptions in 2023. But it was Mayfield’s two interceptions, including one on the Bucs’ final drive, along with a defensive collapse in the fourth quarter, that led to a 31-23 loss at Detroit in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Lions LB Derrick Barnes and Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

“I think as a quarterback you always want to eliminate turnovers,” Mayfield said. “So, continue to work on that aspect. But just getting everybody on the same page as well. I’ve mentioned it that within this system, having the answers built in.”

Mayfield’s game could be unleashed with the help of new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. The two worked together in Los Angeles during the final five weeks of the 2022 season when Mayfield was claimed off waivers by the Rams. Coen plans to give Mayfield more ownership of the offense and more freedom to change the plays at the line of scrimmage this season.

“Getting everyone on the same page in that aspect of commanding it,” Mayfield said of operating Coen’s system, which has its roots in Sean McVay’s offense. “And becoming even more demanding of the guys, and understanding that we’re going to set the standard and we’re not going to dip below it no matter what.”

Baker Mayfield is just getting started in Tampa Bay and believes he can play even better than he did in 2023. He’ll have to if the Bucs truly have Super Bowl aspirations.

And given Mayfield’s lucrative contract extension, the team is banking on that happening.

FAB 2. Baker Mayfield Will Have More Freedom At The Line Of Scrimmage

Last year, Tampa Bay hired Dave Canales from Seattle to be the team’s offensive coordinator with two main goals in mind. First, improving the scoring, as the Bucs averaged just 18.2 points per game in 2022. Second, improve the running game, as the team ranked dead last in 2022, averaging only 75.6 yards per game.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

With Baker Mayfield under center and Canales running the offense, the Bucs did improve their scoring by a field goal per game. Tampa Bay averaged 21.2 points per game in 2023.

But the running game didn’t take off as the team had hoped. While the Bucs improved to 88.8 yards per game on the ground, that still ranked last in the league.

Part of the reason why the running game faltered was the Bucs ran into too many bad looks. Opposing defenses loaded the box in obvious run situations, such as first down, and Canales stubbornly ran into those looks too often for no gain or perhaps a yard or two.

Mayfield wasn’t granted the authority to change the play at the line often. That wasn’t really built into Canales’ offense, but new offensive coordinator Liam Coen plans on giving Mayfield and the offense the freedom to audible.

“It was just the combination of philosophy a little bit maybe,” Coen said when asked what held the Bucs’ ground game back in 2023. “And just the difference in putting the guys in position to be successful and understanding what we’re going up against, right? The guys that we block up front are typically bigger and stronger in a lot of ways. Creating different advantages – changing the math and utilizing motion to be able to gain edges and angles in the run game.

“And then also maybe putting a little bit more on the guys from a check and an audible system – to be able to run into some more advantageous looks. I think that will be important for us and maybe a little bit of a difference from last year.”

That’s music to Mayfield’s ears. He wants to not just be the quarterback of the Bucs offense – but to also be its commander. Mayfield wants the power to audible more in 2024.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

“Absolutely, and that’s something that Liam is going to do a really good job of and that’s presenting the whole package at once,” Mayfield said. “Instead of me just making a random call at the line of scrimmage, we’ll go into this game plan week with, ‘Okay guys, this is the look we’re looking for to run this play. If not, this is the answer we’re going to have.’

“Obviously, a little bit more film study when it comes to that and knowing ‘this is what we’re looking for.’ When it comes to that you want to teach everyone else so they are expecting the audible or the check at the line of scrimmage.”

Mayfield wants everybody on offense – the linemen, the backs, the receivers and tight ends – to be on the same page when it comes to identifying pre-snap looks and making the right checks to different pass or run plays. That will involve more work in the film room, but should pay more dividends in 2024, such as more third down conversions, more first downs, extended drives and more touchdowns as a result.

“When you teach guys like that, good things are really going to happen and grow because they are learning football and understanding, ‘Guys, we’re in a bad look here. We need to do something else,’” Mayfield said. “So they understand they might have to run the route a different way or block the scheme a different way. So it’s a special aspect that Liam is going to bring to us.”

FAB 3. Baker Mayfield Feels More Pressure To Win A Super Bowl

The Bucs were on the brink of having a losing season and perhaps a head coaching change last year. Tampa Bay had slumped badly to a 4-7 record and had the team had its back to the wall.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Then the Bucs won four of their last five games to get to 8-8, but following a bad loss at home to the Saints in Week 17, Tampa Bay had to win at Carolina to improve to 9-8 and win the NFC South. And likely save Todd Bowles’ job in the process.

Playing with a bad rib injury and then suffering a first quarter knee sprain, Baker Mayfield gutted it out against the Panthers. He completed 20-of-32 passes (62.5%) for 137 yards in a 9-0 victory, although he and the Bucs were fortunate that the Panthers dropped three potential interceptions in the first half.

That one win changed everything and the Bucs would go on to beat the Eagles at home, 32-9, in the Wild Card playoffs. Tampa Bay was tied with Detroit, 23-23, entering the fourth quarter of the Divisional playoffs before the Lions prevailed, 31-23.

So which Bucs team will show up in 2024? The team that started the year 4-7, or the squad that finished the season 6-2, including a 1-1 record in the playoffs?

Bucs general manager Jason Licht and Bowles are banking on the latter, which is why the team spent $167 million in free agency. Most of that money went toward the Bucs’ own players, including Mayfield, who wants to finish what he started last year in Tampa Bay.

“The group we had, as well, made it so special last year – made it a big reason why I wanted to come back here,” Mayfield said. “Knowing that we have a lot of the same staff coming back, key pieces… We were close. We made a good run there at the end, but I don’t think any of our guys were satisfied.

“It was the group that stuck together through all of the highs and lows that made it so special for us. I’m looking forward to being able to push for a deeper playoff run. Obviously, if it’s not a Super Bowl, only one team is happy in the end. That’s the goal here – to try and win a couple.”

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

The NFC South got more formidable with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins joining the Falcons. Atlanta might be a QB away from really challenging the Bucs for the division title. The Falcons fired Arthur Smith after three consecutive 7-10 seasons. Is Cousins the answer, or will his 1-3 record in the postseason serve as an indication that he’ll continue to underachieve in big games – this time with a new team?

With new quarterback Derek Carr, New Orleans actually tied Tampa Bay with a 9-8 record in 2023. But the Bucs had a better conference record and won the tiebreaker for a third straight NFC South championship. Is this the year a salary cap reckoning takes place and finally sinks the Saints?

Carolina was just 2-14, but Dave Canales takes over as head coach and has worked wonders with quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Geno Smith in Seattle and Mayfield in Tampa Bay. The Panthers won’t contend for the division title in 2024 but should be more formidable if quarterback Bryce Young improves under Canales’ tutelage.

“I think it’s going to be a lot more competitive than it was last year,” Mayfield said of the NFC South landscape. “Obviously still a tight group but I think a lot more winning records. It’s going to be just as competitive. Obviously, Atlanta bringing in Kirk and bringing in some pieces.

“Bryce going into year two, obviously having worked with Dave and knowing he’s going to good stuff out of him, and knowing the Saints with Derek has a lot of experience as well. We’re going to have to take care of business. We’ve set the standard in this division for a while now and we have to keep it that way.”

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay’s obvious goal is to remain kings of the NFC South and win a fourth straight division title. But should the Bucs accomplish that, will they be improved enough to contend with the likes of the Lions and 49ers in the playoffs?

Tampa Bay has lost its last two games at San Francisco over the last two years, and the team lost both games against Detroit last season. As fate would have it, the Bucs have to battle the 49ers and Lions again this season.

“The people that we have in this building, we set our own standard – we know what our own expectation is,” Mayfield said. “We know the pieces that we have. We’re capable of winning a Super Bowl. You set that standard and you don’t let anybody dip below that line. For us, we have a lot of the same guys coming back. We were there. Once you get a taste of losing in the playoffs, it makes you driven even more.

“For us, knowing that we were a little bit short in the playoffs and just to continue to push… There [were] a lot of lessons we learned last year as a team, as well. Starting out 3-1 and going to 4-7 and having to win five-out-of-six of the last ones to get into the playoffs, we were battle tested. Knowing that we can control that – there’s things that can go your way, but as long as you stay the course, good things will happen.”

FAB 4. Liam Coen’s Offense Will Feature More 11 Personnel

While there has been plenty of talk about how Tampa Bay’s offense will have some form of continuity as it transitions from Dave Canales to Liam Coen, there will be one big difference.

Bucs TEs Payne Durham and Cade Otton – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Canales, who was last year’s play-caller, brought in a version of Seattle’s offense, which relies on more 12 personnel, which is one (1) running back and two (2) tight ends – and two receivers as a result. Coen is importing a version of a Los Angeles Rams system, which features more 11 personnel, which is one (1) running back and one (1) tight end – and three receivers as a result.

The carryover between the systems is the scheme, the concepts and some of the terminology. The bridge between the two systems is former Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who spent time with Sean McVay and the Rams and brought that system to Seattle.

Waldron incorporated more two-tight end sets (12 personnel) at the direction of Pete Carroll, who loves a strong running game.

But the Rams can also run the ball just fine out of three-receiver sets (11 personnel), evidenced by 117.6 yards per game last year, which ranked 12th in the league. More three-receiver sets means the Bucs will face more nickel and dime defenses, and lighter boxes with fewer linebackers to run into as a result.

“A lot of the 11 personnel – just the one tight end sets,” Mayfield said of Coen’s system and the biggest difference from Canales’ approach. “That’s truly how this scheme thrives. You always want – and need – to get into some heavier sets, short yardage-wise. There’s always that aspect of it. The ability to go tempo, to have answers when it comes to third down plays, man-zone indicators – there are things [Coen] does really well and always having answers.”

Rams HC Sean McVay, Bucs OC Liam Coen and Rams QB Matthew Stafford – Photo by: USA Today

According to Arjun Menon’s The Scout, the Bucs used 11 personnel on 453 plays (68.2%) last year, while deploying 12 personnel on 183 plays (27.6%). Tampa Bay used 13 personnel, which calls for one (1) running back and three (3) tight ends and one receiver, on 17 plays (2.5%).

Conversely, the Rams used 11 personnel 95% on the time last year, running that personnel grouping on 579 plays. L.A. deployed 12 personnel on just 30 plays (5%), and didn’t use any 13 personnel at all.

“When it comes to normal downs, in this system the marriage of the run and pass is a big thing for that,” Mayfield said. “Having play-action plays off the run and stuff, and having answers when it comes to the run game – it’s a system that allows guys to come up and play free. It is a little more taxing in the knowledge aspect with learning it, but once you get it down it allows the guys to play free.”

FAB 5. More 11 Personnel Usage Might Influence Bucs’ Draft Strategy

The Bucs had the league’s youngest tight end room last year with starter Cade Otton, who was in his second season, being the veteran by default. Seldom-used David Wells was actually in his sixth season in the league, but had rarely played. The other two tight ends on the roster were Ko Kieft, a primary blocking tight end who was in the same draft class as Otton, and rookie tight end Payne Durham.

Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photo by: USA Today

Coen has watched film on Otton, a fourth-round pick in 2022, and likes what he’s seen so far. After catching 42 passes for 391 yards and a pair of touchdowns as a rookie, Otton had 47 catches for 455 yards and four touchdowns last year.

But Otton really emerged as even more of a weapon in the playoffs. He had a career-high eight catches for 89 yards against the Eagles in the team’s 32-9 Wild Card win, and finished the year with five receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown against the Lions in the Bucs’ 31-23 loss in the next round.

“He made some big plays for us,” Bucs general manager Jason Licht said at the NFL Scouting Combine. “[He has] been a very steady player. You know, sometimes he doesn’t appear to be like the flashiest player, but he’s very consistent and he’s capable of being an every-down player, but he needs a complement, too. We’re excited about Payne [Durham]. We will see where Payne comes along this year.”

Durham had just five catches for 58 yards as a rookie last year, and added an 18-yard reception against the Eagles in the playoffs. The 6-foot-5, 255-pound Durham totaled 126 catches for 1,275 yards (10.1 avg.) at Purdue, but scored a whopping 21 touchdowns in four seasons, including eight as a senior.

With more 11 personnel (three-receiver sets) usage expected under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, there is a chance that the Bucs ignore the tight end position in this year’s draft and roll with Otton, Durham and Kieft again this year. Tampa Bay may only keep three tight ends with six wide receivers on the roster as a result.

Bucs WR Rakim Jarrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So the chances of the Bucs drafting another wide receiver instead of another tight end increase with more 11 personnel deployment. Tampa Bay has a pair of great receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but Evans turns 31 in August and the 28-year old Godwin is entering a contract year.

Trey Palmer struggled with inconsistency last year as the team’s No. 3 receiver. While the Bucs are high on undrafted free agent Rakim Jarrett, he had just four catches for 60 yards.

Tampa Bay will need more talent at wide receiver to compete for a roster spot and push Palmer and Jarrett to excel or to the bench. The 2024 NFL Draft is flush with wide receiver talent, but relatively weak at tight end.

So it stands to reason that if Tampa Bay is going to add another weapon to the passing game via the draft in 2024, it would more likely be at wide receiver than tight end based on the current talent on the roster and how Coen will deploy that talent in personnel groupings.