On Tuesday we revisited my predictions for the Bucs’ 2023 pass rushers individual sack totals. I think the results were quite close to what actually materialized.

What I am most proud of is that I was pretty close in predicting each player’s pressure rate, which, over time, is the most predictive measure of pass rush talent.

Now that we have put last year’s predictions and results to bed it is time to turn to this upcoming year.

The basis for my predictions is off of three factors. One, I try to estimate how many pass rush snaps each player will get next season. Secondly, I try to predict what each player’s pressure rate will be. By multiplying these two numbers together I derive a pressure estimate.

Then, for most players, I will apply a league average pressure-to-sack conversion rate. For edge rushers this is about 17-18%. For interior rushers it is 12%.

My own analysis has shown pressure rates are more stable year-to-year, with a bit of an age curve to them. Conversion rates are not predictive at all: see Nelson, Anthony circa 2022-2023.

Now that we have a baseline for my methodology, let’s get to the predictions.

Bucs Edge Rushers

Yaya Diaby

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

I am probably going to disappoint a lot of Bucs fans, but I don’t foresee Diaby approaching his 2023 sack production in 2024. Last year’s number, which was 7.5 officially (nine, as measured by PFF) was due in large part to an obscenely high pressure-to-sack conversion rate of 35%. The chances of Diaby replicating that are quite low.

If he is to reach that total, or exceed it into double digits, it will start with increased playing time. That is a probable outcome as Diaby is firmly entrenched in a starting role to begin the season. Given his youth, the fact that the coaching staff is high on him, and his plus run defense, I could see Diaby getting to 385 pass rush snaps. I also predict he will improve as a snap-to-snap pass rusher, improving his pressure rate to around 9.75%.

Given those two factors I am predicting Diaby to amass 38 pressures, which would be an increase of 12 over his 2023 total. At an 18% conversion rate, I estimate he will post seven sacks for the season.

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka

The polarizing pass rusher is entering a contract year with the Bucs. If given a full year as a starter, there is an outside chance JTS could earn himself quite the payday. But while he is currently penciled in as the starter opposite Diaby, the team is going to want to see what they have in Chris Braswell after investing a second-round pick in him in the 2024 NFL Draft.

In Tryon-Shoyinka’s rookie season he played third fiddle to Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP missed four games that year due to injury and created a pass rush split of 388 to 344 with JTS. I think that’s going to be close to where JTS ends up with Braswell this year with Braswell getting the lion’s share of the split.

As far as Tryon-Shoyinka’s pressure rate, I think he will post a career-best in 2024 working off of the best interior rush he has had in his career. I envision that to be around 12%. Over 340 pass rush snaps it would give him 41 pressures. And after underperforming the league average conversion rate his first two years in the NFL, JTS outperformed the league last year, converting 19% of his pressures into sacks. At the low end of league average (17%) he would produce a career-high seven sacks for the season.

Chris Braswell

Bucs OLB Chris Braswell – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The newest edition to the Bucs outside linebacker room will get plenty of chances to nab that starting role from Tryon-Shoyinka. As I mentioned above, I predict he will wind up with about 375 pass rush snaps. Braswell had a 17.5% pressure rate in college. That was the exact same as his running mate Will Anderson Jr. who had a remarkable rookie season for the Texans last year.

I don’t think Braswell has the same ceiling as Anderson, but I think he can take advantage of some scheme opportunities the Bucs will give him. I am predicting he has an 11.5% pressure rate.

That would give Braswell an estimated 43 pressures and I think he will actually outperform the league average conversion rate, winning on some loops/twists to juice the conversion rate a little, inflating his close rate to 22.5%. I am predicting Braswell will reach 9.5 sacks (as measured by PFF who gives full credit for half sacks).

Anthony Nelson

Nelson came crashing down to earth with his sack total in 2023. And that’s okay. He is still a high-floor edge rusher who defends the run well. He was actually more consistent as a pass rusher last year, even if the splash plays were not as numerous as the year prior. With the addition of Braswell and the emergence of the next guy on the list, I think Nelson continues to see a decline in pass rush snaps. I wouldn’t be surprised if he only registers about 105 as he’ll play mostly on early downs.

At a 7.5% pressure rate Nelson will miss double digit pressures by two, ending with eight by my estimation. That’ll leave him with just 1.5 sacks.

Markees Watts

Bucs OLB Markees Watts – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There are only so many pass rush snaps to go around. The last two seasons the Bucs had about 1,100 for their edge rushers to pool. In 2021 it was almost 1,450 as the team ran more three OLB snaps trying to get JTS on the field as an interior rusher.

I could see that happening a bit more this season and as such I have 1,350 pass rush snaps for the edge room. That leaves 145 snaps for Watts. I am confident with the added workload you won’t see the same 22.2% pressure rate he posted on limited snaps last year.

But I do still see Watts being used as a pass rush specialist where he won’t have to worry about fitting the run as much. As such, I still think he can clock a 13.5% pressure rate and post 20 pressures. But I also think he will struggle to reach a league average conversion rate. With a depressed close rate of 12.5% he would still only get about 2.5 sacks.

Bucs Interior Rushers

Vita Vea

Bucs DTs Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Vita Vea posted his first sub-10% pressure rate season in 2023. This may be indicative of a fall-off in athleticism as he approaches his 30th birthday (he’s 29 this year). It is hard to maintain freak athleticism at his weight.

Perhaps seeing that future drop-off, the big man has made a concerted effort to drop some pounds. Will that help him improve as a pass rusher? Maybe a little. I am predicting a 2% improvement in that metric. But that jump still doesn’t get him back above the 10% threshold, topping out at 9.75%.

But I am buying Vea being on the field more. In his entire career he has only surpassed 400 pass rush snaps twice. In 2019 he had a career-high 505 and in 2021 he hit 420. With his more svelte physique I am projecting him to be on the field for 425 pass rush snaps. This would give him 41 pressures. At a 12.5% conversion rate he would end the season with five sacks.

Calijah Kancey

I cannot understate how high I am on a Calijah Kancey breakout season. And I’m not the only one.

.@Buccaneers @Ckancey8 the Cross Chop is coming to an NFL Stadium near you. Take it to the BANK. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/lNNg4AtQsO

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) June 26, 2024

Last year Kancey put together a fine pass rushing performance to the tune of an 8.9% pressure rate. Look for that to move up to 11.5% this year. And if the Bucs can keep him on the field for 450 pass rush snaps – look out.

At those levels he would produce 52 pressures. That would have ranked tied for 12th in the NFL last year among interior defensive linemen. It would also get Kancey right around 6.5 sacks.

Logan Hall

Bucs DT Logan Hall – Photo by: USA Today

Hall has posted two straight seasons of sub-6% pressure rates. His failure to develop anything beyond an ineffective swim move has led to similarly ineffective results. I don’t see a huge improvement from the third-year tackle on a rate basis. I also don’t see his playtime improving, as I am hopeful the Bucs will utilize some of their bigger edge rushers like Yaya Diaby, Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka inside on pass rushing downs more often.

I am forecasting Hall to produce a 6% pressure rate on 300 pass rush snaps for a total of 18 pressures. He should see some positive conversion-rate regression to the mean taking him from zero sacks last year to 2.5 sacks this year.

Greg Gaines

Gaines has been brought back for a second year more for his abilities as a run-defending nose tackle than as a pass rusher. Gone are the days of his 6-8% pressure rates. He’s been firmly entrenched in the 3-4.5% range over the past two years. I believe that will continue (4.25%) over about 265 pass rush snaps this year. The result is 11 pressures and 1.5 sacks.

William Gholston

Gholston is back for another go-round. But he is hardly a pass rushing force at this point in his career. Expect Gholston’s pass rush snap count to further reduce from 115 last year to 75 this year. His pressure rate will likely bottom out at 4% for three pressures and thus produce no sacks.

Bucs Predicted Totals

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Adding up the 10 player predictions and we get the following totals: 2,865 pass rush snaps, 275 pressures and 43 sacks. That compares favorably across the board to the team’s 2023 totals.

Looking at the same group (with Shaq Barrett and Cam Gill added in to account for the change to Braswell), those players posted 2,663 pass rush snaps, 225 pressures and 34 sacks last year. My forecast sees the total group jump 1.1% in pressure rate creating a more formidable pass rush that Todd Bowles has been looking for.

Additionally, you can see an increase in sacks of nine from the defensive front, although keep in mind all of these totals are using the PFF version of sacks rather than the NFL’s way of counting half sacks. For any player where I have a half sack projection, it is my way of saying I envision that player getting either of the whole numbers the total splits.