Let’s talk about Yaya Diaby, shall we?

The more exciting periods of the Bucs offseason are over with, as pre-draft scouting, free agency, the NFL Draft, OTAs and mini-camps are well in the past. What is exciting, though, is that this Bucs Storylines series began when training camp was still weeks and weeks away, and now we’re under one week from Tampa Bay reporting back to the AdventHealth Training Center to start camp and begin preparations for the 2024 season.

There’s still plenty of time to talk storylines for the upcoming season, though, as the regular season doesn’t kick off for another month-plus. So, with that in mind, this series rolls on as we narrow in on some of the Bucs’ biggest stars and go player-by-player to dive into the big storylines that are in store for the 2024 season.

After taking a look at six players on offense (quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, running back Rachaad White, tight end Cade Otton and left tackle Tristan Wirfs), we flipped over to the defense with nose tackle Vita Vea and defensive lineman Calijah Kancey. Today, we continue with outside linebacker Yaya Diaby.

Bucs Storylines: Yaya Diaby

Here are three big storylines surrounding Bucs outside linebacker Yaya Diaby in 2024:

How Will Yaya Diaby Build On His Strong Rookie Campaign?

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

When the Bucs drafted Diaby in the third round of the 2023 Draft, they were understandably high on the chiseled pass rusher out of Louisville. But even they might not have been expecting him to move ahead of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka on the depth chart and be the starter on the other side of Shaq Barrett by the end of his rookie season. Yet, that’s what happened. Diaby became one of the pleasant surprises of a 2023 season that was full of them for Tampa Bay.

Over the first 10 games of the season, Diaby played more of a rotational role and never saw more than 30 snaps in any of those contests. But all along, he was playing well and earning a bigger role. He got his first career start in Week 11 against San Francisco, and though he played just 21 snaps (11 rush defense snaps, 10 pass rush), he turned that into his best-graded game of the season. Pro Football Focus graded him out with a 69.9 overall grade, a 77.1 run defense grade and a pass rush mark of 75.6 — all season-highs at that point.

Diaby’s two-sack game against the 49ers in his first career start gave him three over a two-game span and four on the season. And from there, he built on his momentum by adding a sack against Carolina in Week 13, notching 1.5 sacks against Jacksonville in Week 16 and picking up one more in the season finale against Carolina.

By the end of his rookie season, his 7.5 sacks led the Bucs. PFF, which grades sacks differently than the standard, credited him with nine quarterback captures on the year. He also had a forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and 12 tackles for loss — the most of any rookie in 2023.

So, how can Diaby build on his strong debut season? Heading into training camp, he appears to be the only sure starter in an outside linebacker group that is deep but lacking in high-end pass rushers.

Shaq Barrett was released, leaving the second-year outside linebacker as the lone remaining starter at the position from the end of last season. After tallying 7.5 sacks last year with only seven starts, the 25-year-old will look to take the next step in 2024. He needs to build out a more elaborate pass rush plan, and if he can do so, he’ll set himself up for quite the encore in year two.

Can Yaya Diaby Be The Bucs’ No. 1 EDGE?

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

With Shaq Barrett gone and a general lack of clarity regarding who will step in and replace him in 2024, Diaby is essentially the Bucs’ No. 1 EDGE by default. He’s the remaining starter from the end of last year, with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka needing to earn back a starting role by beating out 2024 second-round pick Chris Braswell, second-year players Markees Watts and Jose Ramirez and veterans Anthony Nelson and Randy Gregory.

Diaby had a good rookie season and really came on strong by the end of it, but is he ready to be the guy? Fair or not, there’s a lot riding on him given he’s just a second-year player with single-digit NFL starts to his name. And before he can truly be a No. 1 EDGE, he’s really going to need to round out his pass rush arsenal.

While the former Louisville Cardinal led Tampa Bay with 7.5 sacks as a rookie, he did only have a 6.7% pass rush win rate. That was behind Barrett (15%), Tryon-Shoyinka (10.8%), Nelson (10.1%) and Watts (27.1%, though he played far fewer snaps). Over the course of a full season as a starter, Diaby’s 6.7% win rate isn’t going to cut it — especially if he’s going to be the team’s No. 1.

The Bucs are in a unique position with their outside linebacker room, as they have a good group of players that includes some high-upside guys and a couple of high-floor rotational pieces. But they enter the 2024 season unsure whether they have that alpha-type EDGE, and Diaby is going to get a shot at being that guy. Whether he takes the next step and secures that spot could very well have a ripple effect on the team’s plans next offseason. If he proves to be better suited for a No. 2 EDGE or rotational role, Tampa Bay will find itself in the market for the guy next spring.

Is Yaya Diaby A Candidate For Double-Digit Sacks In 2024?

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and Bills QB Josh Allen – Photo by: USA Today

This storyline essentially goes hand-in-hand with the second storyline. Because if the answer to this question is yes, then the answer to the previous question is also a yes. But what is Yaya Diaby’s ceiling, anyway? Can he be a double-digit sacker for the Bucs? Or were his 7.5 sacks as a rookie more in line with what the team can expect from him?

In a recent article that included his 2024 sack projections for Tampa Bay, Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo actually had the 6-foot-4, 270-pounder failing to replicate his 2023 sack numbers.

Queipo pointed out that Diaby had a very high pressure-to-sack conversion rate of 35% in 2023, which will be difficult to repeat. And while Queipo projected a pressure rate just shy of 10%, cutting that conversion rate of 35% in half led him to a seven-sack prediction for Diaby this season. That’s a fine total, but it would also lead to an answer of “no” for the question of whether he can be a double-digit sacker this year.

The Bucs are certainly going to hope Queipo is wrong. Head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles said back in March that he can’t say for sure that Diaby will be a 10-plus sacker, but he did say that he knows No. 0 will “be in that vicinity.” Again, this largely comes down to Diaby building out his pass rush repertoire in addition to getting more flexible and agile, all goals that he mentioned to Pewter Report before the offseason began.

A 10-sack season for Diaby in 2024 would make him the first double-digit sacker since 2021 when Barrett had 10 in a Pro Bowl season. Diaby proving that he has a double-digit-sack ceiling would be huge for the Bucs, as it would give them even more confidence in him as a legitimate building block of the future.