Finally.

After a busy offseason that saw them dole out new contracts to keep a lot of their own, the Bucs will begin their pursuit of a fourth straight NFC South title and a fifth consecutive playoff appearance as they return to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday afternoon to kick off the regular season against the Washington Commanders.

Tampa Bay re-signed its five main free agents this offseason in quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, linebacker Lavonte David, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and kicker Chase McLaughlin. The team also brought back safety Jordan Whitehead, who comes back to town after two seasons with the Jets to patrol the back end of Todd Bowles’ defense alongside Winfield, an All-Pro selection in 2023.

Bowles and the Bucs finished the 2023 season on a hot streak, going 5-1 in their final six regular season games to finish 9-8, three-peat as division champions and make a fourth consecutive playoff appearance. After a Wild Card win over the Eagles, the season came to a bitter end with a narrow NFC Divisional Round loss to the Lions in Detroit.

Now, the Bucs will be looking to run it back and keep their division title and playoff streak alive. They’ll want to get out to a strong start to the regular season when they host the Commanders, as a tough test lies ahead in Week 2 as Tampa Bay returns to Detroit to face the Lions, who will be looking for a third straight win over Bowles and his men. Ray Jay will be rocking for Week 1, and it’s key for the Bucs to not overlook Jayden Daniels and this Washington team.

The Last Time…

Bucs DE Will Gholston, OLB Anthony Nelson and WFT QB Taylor Heinicke – Photo by: USA Today

Things didn’t go the Bucs’ way the last time these two teams met, which was back in 2021 when the Commanders were the Washington Football Team. Tampa Bay, which finished 13-4 that regular season, surprisingly saw one of its four losses come at the hands of Washington on the road. Tom Brady threw two early interceptions as the home team took a 13-0 lead behind Taylor Heinicke. By halftime, the Bucs had only gotten within 16-6.

A 6-yard touchdown pass from Brady to Cameron Brate cut the deficit to 16-13 halfway through the third quarter, but Washington responded and went up by 10 once again before fourth. Tampa Bay scored again at the 10:55 mark of the fourth quarter, with a 40-yard touchdown pass to Mike Evans getting the visitors back to 23-19.

But from there, the Washington Football Team put together a 19-play, 80-yard drive that took 10:26 off the clock and ended with a touchdown that put the game out of reach. Brady and the Bucs fell 29-19 to a team that finished 7-10.

Brady was 23-of-34 for 220 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in the loss. He was outdueled by Heinicke, who was an efficient 26-of-32 for 256 yards and a touchdown. That 10:26 drive to finish off the game left Washington with a time of possession advantage of 39:08 to 20:52. Devin White, who is now in Philadelphia, led the way for the Tampa Bay defense with 18 tackles (13 solo), two sacks and three tackles for loss.

Sunday will mark the 23rd meeting all-time between Tampa Bay and Washington, with the latter holding a 12-10 advantage in the series.

How The Bucs And Commanders Are Trending

Bucs WR Mike Evans and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs and Commanders are in two different stages of their development heading into 2024. The Bucs have made the playoffs in four straight years and won three consecutive NFC South titles. With a lot of continuity and a great deal of talent, they’ll feel like they’re set to be in position to continue both of those streaks by the end of this season.

This offseason, Tampa Bay re-signed its top five free agents — quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, linebacker Lavonte David, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and kicker Chase McLaughlin. The team also struck a long-term agreement with left tackle Tristan Wirfs in addition to bringing safety Jordan Whitehead back to town after he spent two years with the Jets.

The Bucs’ 2024 draft class was headlined by center Graham Barton, outside linebacker Chris Braswell, defensive back Tykee Smith, wide receiver Jalen McMillan and running back Bucky Irving. The roster is significantly younger than it was when it had Tom Brady and a whole host of since-departed veterans, but there’s a lot of winning experience all over the field as well.

The Commanders are a bit of a different story. They’re building toward something under new ownership, and 2024 feels like a fresh start. Dan Quinn is getting another shot as a head coach, and he brought Kliff Kingsbury along with him to spearhead what Washington hopes will be a successful turnaround.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Photo by: USA Today

Also brought in to expedite that turnaround was 2023 Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels out of LSU. Daniels, a dangerous dual-threat quarterback, will start right away, meaning this Week 1 matchup against the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium will be his proper NFL debut.

The Commanders have surrounded Daniels with some veterans, including running back Austin Ekeler, tight end Zach Ertz and center Tyler Biadasz. Of course, Daniels also has the benefit of throwing to Terry McLaurin. On defense, they added linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu as well as defensive ends Dante Fowler Jr., Clelin Ferrell and Dorance Armstrong. It’s a new-look team all around under a new coaching staff, but Washington looks primed to take a step forward after a 4-13 finish last year.

Here’s how the Bucs and Commanders stacked up last year:

Bucs Offense: 20th in scoring offense (20.5 PPG), 23rd in total offense (313.0 yards per game), 17th in passing offense (224.2 yards per game), 32nd in rushing offense (88.8 yards per game)

Commanders Offense: T-24th in scoring offense (19.4 PPG), 24th in total offense (312.0 yards per game), 18th in passing offense (219.1 yards per game), 27th in rushing offense (93.6 yards per game)

Bucs Defense: T-6th in scoring defense (19.1 points allowed per game), 23rd in total defense (344.2 yards allowed per game), 29th in passing defense (248.9 yards allowed per game), 5th in rushing defense (95.3 yards allowed per game)

Commanders Defense: 32nd in scoring defense (30.5 points allowed per game), 32nd in total defense (388.9 yards allowed per game), 32nd in passing defense (262.2 yards allowed per game), 27th in rushing defense (126.8 yards allowed per game)

The Bucs are currently 3.5-point home favorites over the Commanders, with the Over/Under set at 44 (per MyBookie.ag).

What Might Decide This Bucs-Commanders Matchup?

Bucs G Ben Bredeson and C Graham Barton – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

For the Bucs offense, so much of this game is going to come down to how the rebuilt interior offensive line fares against two-time Pro Bowler Jonathan Allen and another Pro Bowler in Daron Payne. That duo on the interior of the Commanders defensive line present a formidable first test for Graham Barton, Tampa Bay’s rookie center. And while left guard Ben Bredeson is a veteran, this will be his first extended game action playing alongside Barton and Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs. 

Second-year right guard Cody Mauch is the third member of the offensive line’s interior, and facing Allen and Payne right off the bat in 2024 will give everyone an early look at just how much growth he was able to do in the offseason. Communication will be key across the offensive line for Tampa Bay, but the interior in particular will be looking to minimize the disruption Washington’s impressive defensive tackles can generate.

Along those lines, it’ll be on the offensive line to impose its will early as new Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen looks to get the run game going. As important as it is for the big men up front to hold strong against the Washington pass rush and protect Baker Mayfield, getting some push and creating some running lanes for Rachaad White and Bucky Irving — and those two taking advantage of that space — could really swing things in favor of the Tampa Bay offense.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: USA Today

As for the Commanders, the ultimate decider of this game could very well be rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Perhaps it’s unfair to put it all on the shoulders of a young quarterback making his first NFL start, but it’s Daniels’ dual-threat ability and how quickly he hits the ground running that will determine how much success Washington can have early this season. Because as much as Terry McLaurin helps, there are a fair bit of questions about the rest of the supporting cast.

Whether veterans like running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Zach Ertz can still be the same players they once were is up in the air. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. has begun his career with a couple of 700-yard seasons, but can he take the next step up in 2024 under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury?

And how much can Washington expect out of the rest of the receiving corps behind McLaurin? It’s a group that includes Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown, Dyami Brown and Jamison Crowder, though the Commanders will hope rookie receiver Luke McCaffrey and rookie tight end Ben Sinnott can contribute early, too.

Back to Daniels, though. If he can find holes in Todd Bowles‘ pass defense while taking advantage of any running lanes that open up, it could be a long day for Tampa Bay. The team’s pass rush, led by last year’s leading sacker Yaya Diaby, will look to generate some pressure. And you can bet that Bowles will throw some exotic looks at the rookie quarterback in hopes of making him uncomfortable. If the Bucs can keep him from settling in, they’ll have a good shot at starting the season 1-0. But if Daniels comes out and replicates what C.J. Stroud did to Tampa Bay a year ago, it’ll then be on Coen’s offense to win a shootout.

Key Players To Watch

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Baker Mayfield should have a really good chance to start off the season strong on Sunday afternoon. As long as the Tampa Bay offensive line can protect him, he could have some very advantageous matchups to exploit in the passing game. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer are a strong 1-4 at wide receiver, and they’re going up a very questionable Commanders secondary that was among the league’s worst last year. New head coach Dan Quinn will be looking to turn that around, but if that group wasn’t fixed overnight (which is hard to do), Mayfield should light it up as he starts Year 2 with the Bucs.

Everyone saw a year ago just how much Antoine Winfield Jr. can take over a game. The 2023 All-Pro got a big new contract this offseason, and he’ll be looking to pay off Tampa Bay’s investment in him week in and week out. He’ll have a chance to do so on Sunday, as the veteran free safety is back to playing alongside Jordan Whitehead and will be flying around looking to make some big plays, potentially taking advantage of playing a rookie quarterback in his first career start.

Former Bucs DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Bucs NT Vita Vea and Commanders WR Terry McLaurin – Photo by: USA Today

As much as there’s a tendency to highlight Jayden Daniels once again, the focus here is on veteran wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Perhaps it’s because he’s been on a middling Washington team, but McLaurin has spent the last few years being wildly underrated. He posted 919 yards as a rookie in 2019 and has crossed the 1,000-yard mark in the four seasons since. He has never averaged fewer than 12.7 yards per catch in a season (his low of 12.7 was last year), and he has 25 touchdowns over his five seasons.

Jonathan Allen is a huge threat to lock in on come Sunday. He is the leading returning sacker for the Commanders, as he finished with 5.5 from his defensive tackle spot a year ago. Montez Sweat led Washington with 6.5 last year, but he’s now in Chicago after being traded midway through the year. Allen, though, will be a handful for the trio of Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton and Cody Mauch to handle, and how well they manage him could be a huge factor in this Week 1 contest.

Bucs vs. Commanders Game Information

When: Sunday, September 8
Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX – Kevin Kugler (Play by Play), Daryl Johnston (Analyst), Laura Okmin (Reporter)
Bucs Radio: 98Rock – Gene Deckerhoff (Play by Play), Dave Moore (Color), T.J. Rives (Reporter)
Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente – Carlos Bohorquez (Play by Play), Martín Gramática (Analyst)

Bucs vs. Commanders: LIVE Pewter GameDay Show Returns Sunday

Our popular in-game LIVE show returns on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET as the #Bucs host the #Commanders to kick off the season!

Be sure to tune in as we’ll analyze all the action in real time!https://t.co/dxFZuBSUF2

— PewterReport 🏴‍☠️ (@PewterReport) September 4, 2024