Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs have won three straight NFC South titles and sit atop the division with 1-0 New Orleans after Tampa Bay’s 37-20 season-opening win over Washington. Tampa Bay now heads to Detroit to face the 1-0 Lions in a revenge game as the Lions beat the Bucs twice last year, including in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Lions DB Ifeatu Melifonwu and Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles has struggled to beat Detroit quarterback Jared Goff and slow down a potent Lions offense. He’s had all offseason to game plan for this big Week 2 matchup and needs to come up with a game plan that rivals his 32-9 demolition of the Eagles in last year’s Wild Card playoffs instead of the 31-23 loss at Detroit the following week in the next round. Tampa Bay will be short-handed in the secondary without All-Pro free safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who suffered an ankle sprain late in the win over Washington, and top reserve cornerback Bryce Hall, who fractured his fibula and dislocated his ankle. Hall was placed on injured reserve.

The Bucs also might be without starting cornerback Zyon McCollum, who suffered a concussion in the first half of the season opener, in addition to fourth-string cornerback Josh Hayes, who sprained an ankle. Bowles will have to muster up a more effective pass rush against Goff than Tampa Bay had last year in two meetings. Having pass-rushing defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, who sacked Goff in each game last year, would help, but his status for Sunday is uncertain right now due to a calf injury.

Tampa Bay is itching for revenge after losing twice to Detroit last year, but will need to rely on the offense to perhaps win this game in a shootout to cover for an ailing defense. Baker Mayfield and Co. put up 37 points last week, and that will be hard to replicate against a much tougher Lions defense this week. But without a big day offensively, the Bucs may not be able to win as the depleted defense will have a hard time slowing the Lions offense down.

What’s At Stake For The Lions

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The Lions started the season 1-0 after coming back to beat the Rams in overtime at home in Week 1 last week. Detroit’s balanced offense is the envy of the league with capable receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, a rising star in tight end Sam LaPorta and a one-two punch in the backfield with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Quarterback Jared Goff is one of the best triggermen in the league and this unit has great continuity thanks to one of the strongest offensive lines in the NFL.

The Bucs defense was at full strength last year and riding the momentum of a 5-1 finish and a resounding playoff win over the Eagles and still couldn’t prevent the Lions from scoring 31 points. It appears to be a tall order to attempt to do that this year with such a banged up secondary. Goff will look to take advantage of rookies Tyrek Funderburk, who may start at outside cornerback if Zyon McCollum can’t go, and Tykee Smith, the team’s new nickel cornerback. Additionally, Christian Izien will be starting for injured All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. at free safety.

A win over the Bucs would not only propel the Lions to a 2-0 record to start the season, but also give Detroit a head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay should that be necessary to determine playoff seeding in the NFC come January. The Lions’ mastery over the Bucs could continue with a third straight win and that could boost the team’s confidence even more should these two teams square off again in the 2024 playoffs.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles will need to figure out how to best protect his injury-riddled secondary. Will that be to rush four and drop seven defenders in zone coverage? That could lead to a veteran quarterback like Jared Goff having time to pick apart the defensive backfield. Or will Bowles try to pressure Goff with a myriad of blitzers to try to get sacks and force quicker throws that will help his secondary by not having to cover their targets as long? Whatever strategy he goes with has to work for the Bucs to have a chance of winning.

It all starts with the defensive front. Tampa Bay has to stop or at least slow down Detroit’s potent ground game. If David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs can effectively run the ball and provide balance for the Lions offense, it will be very difficult for the Bucs to win this game. Making Detroit one-dimensional is a must – as is playing great red zone defense. The Lions offense as a whole cannot be stopped, but the Bucs defense has to force field goals and prevent touchdowns in the red zone. Getting some takeaways on defense also seems like a must.

On offense, the Bucs have to be balanced with the running game coming through with the one-two punch of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving – and win in the red zone. Tampa Bay only scored a pair of field goals in a 20-6 Week 6 loss to Detroit last year, but managed to score three touchdowns in a 31-23 defeat in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield must avoid turnovers – he threw a total of three interceptions combined in both games last year – and continue to score touchdowns in Detroit. Field goals won’t beat the Lions.

The Lions Win If…

Lions WR Jameson Williams and former Bucs S Ryan Neal – Photo by: USA Today

Detroit won the line of scrimmage in both wins over Tampa Bay last year. In the playoffs, the Lions defensive line sacked Baker Mayfield four times and pressured him into two interceptions. While the Bucs ran for 89 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry, they only ran the ball 15 times because they trailed the entire the game. Detroit is stout on both sides of the ball and the team will need to use the crowd noise at home to full advantage to continue to get after Mayfield.

Offensively, the Lions are hard to beat if they can achieve balance on offense. Detroit ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-23 win over Tampa Bay in the playoffs last year. Jahmyr Gibbs’ 31-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter proved to be the nail in the coffin for the Bucs defense. If Gibbs and David Montgomery get going on the ground, it opens up the play-action game for Jared Goff and makes him even more effective in the pocket, hitting Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown downfield.

The Lions also beat the Bucs in the turnover department in both contests last season. Detroit picked off Baker Mayfield once in Tampa Bay and twice at home in the playoffs, while not turning the ball over once against the Bucs. Tampa Bay cornerback Jamel Dean dropped an interception in the end zone on Detroit’s first drive of the Divisional Round game, and it cost the Bucs a field goal. If Detroit continues to win the turnover battle, it will continue to beat Tampa Bay.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Lions CB Carlton Davis III

Former Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch

This matchup won’t occur on a down-in, down-out basis, as Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen will move Mike Evans around and line him up on the strong side and the weak side of the formation, in addition to the slot occasionally. But when the former Bucs cornerback goes against Evans, it will be a must-see matchup. Davis will want some revenge for the Bucs trading him away this offseason. Evans wants some revenge against the Lions – period.

Davis and Evans did go at it from time to time in training camp when the Bucs went starters vs. starters, and as expected, Evans won more reps than he lost. But that doesn’t mean that Davis can’t give him fits. At 6-foot-1 with long arms, Davis is a tough, physical cornerback. Yet injuries have taken their toll and robbed him of some speed. And Evans doesn’t look like he’s lost a step despite turning 31 in August.

Evans had a late touchdown against the Lions in the playoff game and finished with eight catches for 147 yards (18.4 avg.) in the loss. He’ll need that type of performance again and perhaps another two-touchdown day like he had in the Bucs’ 37-20 season-opening win over the Commanders. When the Lions single cover Evans with Davis on Sunday, look for Baker Mayfield to not hesitate and target the former Tampa Bay cornerback. Detroit would be wise to double Evans and give Davis some help over the top with a safety.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Pass Rush vs. Lions Offensive Line

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Slowing down Detroit’s talented wide receiver tandem of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams will be hard enough for Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged secondary. But without an effective pass rush, quarterback Jared Goff will have time to scan the field and patiently wait until his receivers get open. The Bucs sacked Jared Goff three times in Week 6 in Tampa Bay last October, but only sacked him twice in Detroit in the playoffs. The defender responsible for two of those five sacks – defensive tackle Calijah Kancey – may or may not play this week due to a calf injury that knocked him out of last week’s season opener.

The Lions have two of the best offensive linemen in the league in Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow and All-Pro right tackle Penei Sewell. If Kancey can’t go, it’s imperative that defensive tackle Vita Vea and outside linebackers Yaya Diaby and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka can apply pressure and rattle Goff – something that doesn’t happen often. Diaby was invisible last year in the playoffs and needs a better showing this time around in Detroit. He didn’t record a stat last week against Washington but led Tampa Bay with five pressures.

Todd Bowles used Greg Gaines as a starter in place of Kancey last week, but he’s not a good pass rusher. On third-and-long or obvious passing downs, it might be better to kick Tryon-Shoyinka inside next to Vea and use Chris Braswell on the edge opposite Diaby. Also, this might be the game where the more athletic SirVocea Dennis is used more at inside linebacker than K.J. Britt. Dennis is a much better blitzer and recorded his first NFL sack last week against Jayden Daniels.